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Kilmer17s non confrontational election prediction-

Kilmer17

By Kilmer17
in The Tailgate

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greenspandan

greenspandan

Posted
Posted
I'm betting foxnews has highest rating

And msnbc will be the greatest/craziest

With CNN delving down into counties from the Hubble

Swiping around like the minority report

i tend to end up at CNN, despite the fact that the vacuousness of their reporting is infuriating. they seem to be the last ones to realize the blindingly obvious out of sheer lack of insight (whereas fox news on the other hand chooses to deny the obvious for political reasons).

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GibbsFactor

GibbsFactor

Posted
Posted
i tend to end up at CNN, despite the fact that the vacuousness of their reporting is infuriating. they seem to be the last ones to realize the blindingly obvious out of sheer lack of insight (whereas fox news on the other hand chooses to deny the obvious for political reasons).

A Pew poll just came out declaring MSNBC the most partisan.

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greenspandan

greenspandan

Posted
Posted
Why is the left so confident? Isn't the polling pretty split?

the polling is split at the national level (although obama seems to have a verrrry slight lead there) but the fact is the popular vote is irrelevant. in the swing states, obama maintains slim but steady leads. he is ahead in something like 19 out of every 20 polls taken in the states he needs to win. Nate Silver put it pretty succinctly: in order for Romney to win, all of the state polling would have to be statistically biased in favor of obama, and there is no scientific/historical reason for believing that is the case. (historically, polls have just as much chance of inadvertantly leaning to the right as they do to the left)

the main talking point in-denial conservatives are clinging to is the "pollsters are using 2008 turnout model" argument, which is bunk. only Rasmussen re-weights their polls by political affiliation. others weight it by demographics. let me explain it this way: if you poll 100 people, and happen to reach 60 men and only 40 women, most pollsters will weight the women more because they know on election day more than 40% of the voters will be women.

pollsters (except rasmussen) do not re-weight their poll results on stated party affiliation of the respondents, because then what would be the point of polling, if you already "know" how many democrats versus republicans are going to turn out? the truth is party ID is a fluid thing, and people change what they self-identify as between their party and "independent" a lot, based on how their party brand is doing in a particular cycle. the reason pollsters are "reaching" fewer republicans than democrats in these polls (and incidentally why it might seem like "independents" are breaking for the GOP) is because there is significant damage right now to the GOP brand. a lot of republicans-at-heart will describe themselves as "independent" on the phone right now. this has two upshots: lower self-identified republicans in the poll, and more independents who lean right in the polls.

this brand damage also manifests itself in other ways. you see a lot of conservatives describing themselves as things other than republican: tea party, etc, but they are still conservatives. you also see things like the Constitution Party get on ballots more often, and Libertarian candidates get some traction. The Democrats suffered from a similar problem in 2000 and 2004. a lot of liberals were wary of self-identifying as Democrats (even though they were still liberals, and still primarily voted for Democrats) and Nader / Green Party found their way into the mix.

anyway, the bottom line is Obama is the clear favorite from a statistical standpoint because he is leading (granted not by a lot) in the overwhelming majority of the polls of a set of swing states he needs to win (and has several buffer states in which he is also ahead), and there's nothing tangible to suggest that there are obvious flaws with the polls, amongst which there is a reasonable consensus that obama is ahead where it counts. On the other hand, for Romney to win, there must be something seriously wrong with the vast majority of the polling.

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greenspandan

greenspandan

Posted
Posted

i know this is supposed to be a non-confrontational thread, but i can't resist. Forgive me:

In order for a supporter to be optimistic about Romney's chances, he must deny the consensus of recent science done on the subject, which should at least be a familiar position for a Republican.

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skinsmarydu

skinsmarydu

Posted
Posted
If you look at it state-by-state, it's trending Obama.

Thank God..and thanks to you and brandymac27. And thanks to ES for bringing us all together, R,D,L, or I...we all know each other a whole lot better for it, whether we agree (as individuals or couples, famillies, etc.).

I still hope we'll all remain united around the Redskins. From some posts this wknd, I question our resolve. But, as I've told twa, I may hate your politics, but as an ES, I'll still punch somebody out for ya.

We're ExtremeSkins for a reason!

HAIL!!

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twa

twa

Posted
Posted
On the other hand, for Romney to win, there must be something seriously wrong with the vast majority of the polling.

Yes, the fact they are not weighed and over sample :)

btw Gallup weighs as well as a few others

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brandymac27

brandymac27

Posted
Posted
Thank God..and thanks to you and brandymac27. And thanks to ES for bringing us all together, R,D,L, or I...we all know each other a whole lot better for it, whether we agree (as individuals or couples, famillies, etc.).

I still hope we'll all remain united around the Redskins. From some posts this wknd, I question our resolve. But, as I've told twa, I may hate your politics, but as an ES, I'll still punch somebody out for ya.

We're ExtremeSkins for a reason!

HAIL!!

That's so sweet! I'm sure we'll always be united around the Redskins, we always are, even though we argue about them too LOL. Underneath it all, we still have respect for each other, but politics tends to bring out the worst in everybody unfortunately. Thank God it will all be over tomorrow! :D

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nonniey

nonniey

Posted
Posted

OK looks close but I think Romney will pull it out. Of the toss-ups he'll win Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia by 5-6 points. He'll win New Hamphsire and Iowa by 3-4 points, he'll win Ohio by 2-3 points, Wisconsin by 1-2 points, and Pennsylvania by a point or less. Big surprise Michigan will be a squeaker and fall into Mitts column.

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BRAVEONAWARPATH

BRAVEONAWARPATH

Posted
Posted
OK looks close but I think Romney will pull it out. Of the toss-ups he'll win Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia by 5-6 points. He'll win New Hamphsire and Iowa by 3-4 points, he'll win Ohio by 2-3 points, Wisconsin by 1-2 points, and Pennsylvania by a point or less. Big surprise Michigan will be a squeaker and fall into Mitts column.

So you think Romney will win EVERY swing state AND steal PA and MI?

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Unforgiven

Unforgiven

Posted
Posted
OK looks close but I think Romney will pull it out. Of the toss-ups he'll win Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia by 5-6 points. He'll win New Hamphsire and Iowa by 3-4 points, he'll win Ohio by 2-3 points, Wisconsin by 1-2 points, and Pennsylvania by a point or less. Big surprise Michigan will be a squeaker and fall into Mitts column.

Not real sure if you're serious but if you are....you gotta step outside of the conservative bubble every now and then and get some fresh air. I know it's nice and cozy and they tell you what you want to hear but that's a pretty unrealistic prediction.

Edit : I know this is a non-confrontational thread....but c'mon. :)

If you end up being right though, feel free to quote me and say "neener neener!"

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nonniey

nonniey

Posted
Posted
I predict that, after the election, the same partisans will still be making the same arguments.

I take it you include yourself in that assessment?

---------- Post added November-6th-2012 at 12:51 AM ----------

So you think Romney will win EVERY swing state AND steal PA and MI?

He won't win Nevada.

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Bliz

Bliz

Posted
Posted
OK looks close but I think Romney will pull it out. Of the toss-ups he'll win Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia by 5-6 points. He'll win New Hamphsire and Iowa by 3-4 points, he'll win Ohio by 2-3 points, Wisconsin by 1-2 points, and Pennsylvania by a point or less. Big surprise Michigan will be a squeaker and fall into Mitts column.

Guess we'll find out. I know a lot of people are giving you crap for this, but I for one am glad to see you are standing behind your assertions regarding systemic bias in the polls and not backing down from it. If you're right about that then we may get a Romney electoral landslide as you predict. It's not what I expect, but what the hell do I know?

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