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Kilmer17s non confrontational election prediction-


Kilmer17

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:ols: That was a hell of a hack piece by Peggy Noonan. No actual substantive reasoning or fact based analysis. "Ignore the massive amounts of polling that has been pretty self-consistent and just look at Mitt! He looks fresh and happy and I just feel good! Can't you feel it? It just totally feels like Romney is going to win. Obama just looks like he is losing and he knows it! Yeah!!!"
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this is the first election I did not have to wait in a line(besides behind my squaw )

I live in a very blue district and the only ones out front were Reps...course nobody sane expects O to win Texas.

going from early reports I think a winner will be called tonight(and fought over tomorrow)

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I think this election will have a profound affect on how polls are used and abused going forward.
The result tonight really reinforced the accuracy of polling. There is going to be an even greater investment in polling in future elections, and conspiracy theories about about polls are going to be pushed to the fringe.

Nate Silver is the only person that might be a bigger winner than Obama tonight. He just solidified a career as the Mel Kiper of the Electoral College.

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I just can't get over a take I have, that the way people used those polls in here and "out there" has been an impressive example of confirmation bias at work, and should actually be featured in writings (or added to existing research) on the matter.

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obama will end up with more like 330, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the hurricane. don't let the GOP feed you that lame excuse. mitt's stall occured long before sandy.

nailed it. all credit to Nate Silver. serious advice: if you ever want to be right about something, ask nate what he thinks.

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Silver's getting his numbers from polls. So we all know they could be off, but even still, I'd put Obama's chances at about 70% right now. I think he is definitely the favorite. I still believe he ends up somewhere near 280. I don't quite think its as close as some believe, maybe the popular vote will be very close, but I think Obama is sitting pretty good right now with the EC numbers. I could very well be wrong, but that's my feeling.

Looks like Nate Silver and me were spot on. Guess my 280 was a little low, but still wasn't that close!

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