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Kilmer17s non confrontational election prediction-


Kilmer17

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I've always been antisocial. But when do I get my cool Mod pullover?

I don't' want to derail your thread further with my kibitzing, but I often like to imagine many well-know members as mods and envision the tumult and chaos that likely would follow.

Then I'd be loved and appreciated, even as the turrible turrible human bean I am (every staff needs one).

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I don't' want to derail your thread further with my kibitzing, but I often like to imagine many well-know members as mods and envision the tumult and chaos that likely would follow.

Then I'd be loved and appreciated, even as the turrible turrible human bean I am (every staff needs one).

You should start a "Mod for a week" program just for ****s and giggles.

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To those among us who foresee Romney winning with 300+ EC votes....which tossup states do you see him winning to get to that number?

It just seems like he would have to win quite a few states in which he's currently trailing. I realize these polls are just small samples and could be wrong, just wanted to see what kind of predictions people had on that.

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Jumbo et al, asking for leeway to keep this as a seperate thread specific to talk about election mechanics, and not political banter.

So here is my thought.

We wont know who won until at least 10-14 days after election day.

There will be multiple Court challenges, recounts, and nasty, angry divisive and ultimately destructive fights that will cripple whoever wins.

IE- The loser will be all of us.

First up will be Ohio. Which has a law that says that any "contested" ballot, cannot be counted until 10 days after the election day. Both sides will have dozens if not hundreds of lawyers ready to go to fight tooth and nail for each one.

I plan on going to bed early on election night. Because I dont think it will tell us anything.

So are you going to predict who will be President?

I think Obama w/ 290 EV and popular vote of 49%. He will win the major swing states except Florida and Virginia.

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You should start a "Mod for a week" program just for ****s and giggles.

Great idea, and look under your name. :D

Let me ask you a related (to your OP) question if you think it's not too much a tangent---if there is a <relatively> major win for one guy or the other, how do you see it affecting either losing side? How would "the left" respond to a major Romney win? "The right" to a major O win?

(if ya think the thread may get derailed, just state that so no one else joins in)

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I dont know who will win - I do hope that it ends like this:

Romney 269

Obama 269

House votes in Romney

Senate votes in Biden

That would be so freaking cool in a historical type thing....

I'd...actually be okay with this.

But, as far as the election is concerned, I see things from both Kilmer's and Hersh's perspective. I think it won't be decided until the wee hours, but Obama gets his second term in the White House. I don't think there will be any foul play and I *hope* Romney will be as gracious in defeat as John McCain was in 2008. Still, this will unleash a partisan **** storm that will leave this country more divided than ever.

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To those among us who foresee Romney winning with 300+ EC votes....which tossup states do you see him winning to get to that number?

It just seems like he would have to win quite a few states in which he's currently trailing. I realize these polls are just small samples and could be wrong, just wanted to see what kind of predictions people had on that.

He cant get that high.

I just rewatched Stephanopolis from Sunday, and the panel there said that Ohio cant count ABSENTEE AND PROVISIONAL ballots until the 16th.

The only way this thing is wrapped up on the 7th is if all of the polls are wrong and Obama is actually winning with the same numbers he did in 08.

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To those among us who foresee Romney winning with 300+ EC votes....which tossup states do you see him winning to get to that number?

It just seems like he would have to win quite a few states in which he's currently trailing. I realize these polls are just small samples and could be wrong, just wanted to see what kind of predictions people had on that.

EC 301 requires Romney to win the following:

Florida

Virginia

North Carolina

Ohio

Colorado

Nevada

Wisconsin

Iowa

New Hampshire

(Or replace NH, WI & NV with PA).

It is a SERIOUS stretch to even suggest that happening.

EDIT: My prediction is Obama wins 272-266.

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So are you going to predict who will be President?

I think Obama w/ 290 EV and popular vote of 49%. He will win the major swing states except Florida and Virginia.

No.

Im not interested in, or willing to participate in that debate. I started this thread to talk about the mechanics of the election day process and recounts, challenges and the difficulty we will have in sorting it out.

I think it's going to be a major disaster. It will make 2000 look like Moot Court between 1st year law students at Podunk U.

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So, if we only look at Rasmussen (ranked dead last by 538 in 2010) + ignore all other data and polling = Romney landslide.

Romney may win. It is going to be close, especially in the popular vote. But to base everything on Rasmussen, a polling firm dropped by Fox News of all people, and ignore all other polling seems a bit strange.

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So, if we only look at Rasmussen (ranked dead last by 538 in 2010) + ignore all other data and polling = Romney landslide.

Romney may win. It is going to be close, especially in the popular vote. But to base everything on Rasmussen, a polling firm dropped by Fox News of all people, and ignore all other polling seems a bit strange.

We shall see...

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Great idea, and look under your name. :D

Let me ask you a related (to your OP) question if you think it's not too much a tangent---if there is a <relatively> major win for one guy or the other, how do you see it affecting either losing side? How would "the left" respond to a major Romney win? "The right" to a major O win?

(if ya think the thread may get derailed, just state that so no one else joins in)

I think a Romney win will get the left wing into a blustering rage. However, I think he has a good chance of actually working with Democrats in the House and Senate. Why? Simply put, a great many of them will be from States and or districts that Romney would have had to carry to win in the first place.

If Obama wins, the right wing nutbags will continue to become stronger in the party, and the loss will be blamed on having a moderate as the nominee. The GOP Senators and House members wont have any incentive to work with Obama, and the stale mate will continue.

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I think a Romney win will get the left wing into a blustering rage. However, I think he has a good chance of actually working with Democrats in the House and Senate. Why? Simply put, a great many of them will be from States and or districts that Romney would have had to carry to win in the first place.

If Obama wins, the right wing nutbags will continue to become stronger in the party, and the loss will be blamed on having a moderate as the nominee. The GOP Senators and House members wont have any incentive to work with Obama, and the stale mate will continue.

Just observing what your post implies, in regards to the "fiscal cliff".

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I think a Romney win will get the left wing into a blustering rage. However, I think he has a good chance of actually working with Democrats in the House and Senate. Why? Simply put, a great many of them will be from States and or districts that Romney would have had to carry to win in the first place.

If Obama wins, the right wing nutbags will continue to become stronger in the party, and the loss will be blamed on having a moderate as the nominee. The GOP Senators and House members wont have any incentive to work with Obama, and the stale mate will continue.

I think that whoever wins this will have just over 271 EC votes. ITs going to be very close, right now I give the advantage to Obama because he is the incumbant, but it is tight. A lot of going to depend on voter enthusiasm and turn out. In 2008, people were energized, record voting turn out plus many from the GOP stayed home. This year I think that it is s omewhat reversed. The GOP wants Obama gone and the base that carried Obama is not energized. That is what is making this so close and hard to predict. Funny thing is back in 2008 I saw tons of obama stickers everywhere. This election, I think I have seen 3. I know its not a indicator, but it seems like enthusiasm is down.

I think one thing is certain, if Obama wins, nothing is going to change for at least two more years. The house like K17 said, the house no incentive to work with Obama at all. More stalemated Govt.

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Considering they haven't completely address all the problems that caused the last one; I don't think the economy will get better. I think there's another crash regardless of who gets elected; probably in the not to distant future. That will be the true recession. I'll hold off on my final election prediction until next Tuesday, LOL. 8 days in, I see Obama winning reelection via the Electoral College and Romney winning the popular vote. Dems get revenge finally, for 2000.

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This is exactly the type of parstisan bull**** I hoped would stay out of this thread..

As the OP, and now an antisocial moderator, has said, this post is being used an example of what to keep out of this tread.

My fault guys, wasn't meant to be partisan or offensive, just a prediction of what I think will happen. EC vs popular vote hasn't really been an issue in modern politics and I wish it was, and I think it finally could be after both sides of the aisle experience the sting of defeat at the hands of the EC. So that's where I was coming from. Back to your regularly scheduled prediction thread.

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My fault guys, wasn't meant to be partisan or offensive, just a prediction of what I think will happen. EC vs popular vote hasn't really been an issue in modern politics and I wish it was, and I think it finally could be after both sides of the aisle experience the sting of defeat at the hands of the EC. So that's where I was coming from. Back to your regularly scheduled prediction thread.

I will predict this- I think the bigger story will not be the election itself. Obama wins- pretty easy to see why. Romney wins- same thing, pretty easy to see why. The bigger story will be watching the networks reaction on election night from the losing side and the election aftermath- Republican party will be in all out war should Romney lose. How will the crazies react on either side to the winner? There have already been threats on Romney and people threatening riots if he wins. I also thing the extreme right will become unhinged should Obama win; secret service will be busy. I'm not being confrontational with that answer but I really do believe that is what is going to happen with this election.

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Tempers and worst case scenario theories always run high as a close election winds down -- but most of the eventual carnage is limited to the losing party, which often spends at least one election cycle after a Presidential loss giving control to their ideological goofballs under the misbegotten notion that they need to "get back to basics." (See: GOP, 2008-2012; Democrats in the 80s). A second consecutive Presidential loss often puts the lie to the crazytown leadership; it remains to be seen what will happen within the GOP should Romney follow the current polling trend and lose the election. A smart party would recognize things for what they are and return to moderation.

My money and my math are on Obama in a tight election, likely by roughly 40 EVs. He gets OH, IA, WI, NV, and VA which are more than he needs, totaling 290 EVs. Romney gets FL and snags CO and NH for a total of 248 EVs. Obama picks up zero EVs in NE (though he snagged one in 2008) and Romney picks up zero EVs in ME (a la McCain, 2008). CO and NH are incredibly close on election night, but are called very late in the evening. Romney tries to contest OH but it ends up not mattering, because even without OH Obama still has 272 EVs. Romney continues his quest to contest OH while attempting to woo a couple of faithless electors, but on December 17 when the Electors actually cast their votes, there are no defectors. By then OH is no longer in doubt anyway.

As for the likelihood that Romney wins most of the popular vote while losing the Electoral College... depending on Sandy's whims, that could happen. But so what? The Constitution makes it quite clear that states elect Presidents, not people. Partisans who didn't complain in 2000 will be asked to shut their pie holes and take the legitimate loss like men.

Edit: Fixed projected margin to 40 EV, not 20 (which is just Obama's cushion above 270).

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Am I the only one who thinks that states shouldn't release how many / who have voted early?

(Frankly, I don't think they should release it, at all. I understand that the government has to keep track of whether I've voted, or not. I have a problem with them then turning around and handing that information to probably the biggest data miners and telemarketers in America.)

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