Do people still think we overpaid for Griffin?

[armstrong001]

Are we talking Economics? Think of our alloted draft picks as capital to be budgeted. In order to maximize the roster, it would be smart to strive to make each and every roster transaction a bargain (surplus value).

Jay Cutler was a 25 year-old QB coming off a Pro-Bowl season. Most observers thought the Bears overpaid for him in that trade. We paid more for a college QB. He certainly wasn't a bargain.

I would argue that if Cutler continues to not win anything of importance, and Griffin does, It will certainly be a bargain. Team give up picks to obtain players that will win games, not go to Pro Bowls. Of course, we won't know if it is a bargain until years down the road.

[RG3andHogs]

I think we have to wait about 5 years before we can accurately answer this question. By that point, we'll have seen what RG3 can do, we'll get a good idea of his ceiling, see where the team is at, and we'll also see what the Rams do with their draft picks and how those players will turn out. Only at that point can we truly judge whether or not it was a good trade.

[JoeSkins]

Would I invite a huge ****storm if I admit that I've thought about how great getting the 2nd pick naturally and saving the picks would have been?

[BrandonJ83]

Not always but in this case it looks to be "You get what you pay for."

Looking foward to our next glory years.

[illone]

From what I've seen of him after two games I would say NO we did not overpay.

Let's see how he pans out this year and next year, and perhaps see what players will be avail in the draft when we (would have) picked.

part of the deal is if the Skins make the playoffs and the Rams don't, then most of the media (99%) will say we won the trade. In reality I think it takes more than one year.

[Dont Taze Me Bro]

By the time we know if we overpaid (which I dont think we did) RGIII will be entering the final year of his 4 year deal. With the 18million dollar cap penalty we have hitting again next year, coupled with no first round draft pick, its going to be hard to bring in another impact player from the draft and have enough cap space to fill all the holes in free agency. Which is why I think, regardless of this year and possible sophmore slump next year, year 3 is when we will get a true idea of if we overpaid and we actually will be out a first round pick that year as well, but baring no more Mara screw jobs, we should have plenty of cap space for FA.

We did really good in FA this year considering, and it seems that we finally have "that QB" that can make average/slightly above average WRs play at a higher level (Morgan, Robbinson, etc.) we have a good #1 in Garcon, still got Tana for the slot (and a rested Moss is better than a hampered by injury Moss), great rec'ing TE in Davis and RBs that play bigger than they are supposed to. On defense, when healthy, one of the best front seven, its our safties/secondary that is on the decline. Oline has mediocre depth.

Next year, Im just hoping its possible that we can somehow beef up the oline (with much needed depth) and offense (marque WR/RB) to the point we the top offense in the league with so many weapons/depth along with a decent defense good enough to make plays, but really good playing with a lead (see Colts circa Super Bowl winning season).

I am starting to feel more confident now with our current offense and not feeling like a game is lost when we only need a FG or a TD to tie, I haven't felt that way since Brad Johnson was here. Imagine a few more key additions to the line/WR spot or RB.....and bosting numbers like the Pats offense did that record setting TD season Randy Moss had. Id rather be in games/putting up huge numbers and slacking on defense over the next 2-3 years than having a top 5 defense with no WRs or QB worth a damn like we did the past 10 years.

[ShadesOfSoul]

I don't. Actually, I never did. :-)

[bedlamVR]

compared to other team's methods of aquiring franchise qbs, yes. we overpaid.

but im ok with that. i thought griffin would do well in the nfl and so far he is playing that part. the lack of picks will hurt us over the next few years but that is minimal compared to what we would have had had we kept the picks and been still without a franchise qb.

Getting the wrong QB would have cost us much more . It sets a franchise back 5 years having the wrong signal caller behind center because the ofensive schemes are built around the QB the team relies on them to be able to lift the team . Look how much Jason Campbell set us back .

[SJValleySkinz]

Yes, not having the first round picks hurts and our chances of landing a blue chip player diminishes, but doesn't disapear completely, and our chances of landing a bunch of solid starters is still there. The scouting department just has to earn it's money as the perenially winning teams know how to find players later than the first round.

[dahibachi]

I don't. Actually, I never did. :-)

me neither... its only just been two games but RG3 seems to have completely changed the dynamic of the offense. You can't win in the NFL these days without a good talent at the QB position. Were we going to wait another year to get a premier QB in the draft? We would have to go 2-14 or 3-13 to do that and even without RG3, I don't think we could finish that bad. You've got to get a QB when the opportunity presents itself and I'm happy... no, ecstatic we did. Yeah... the Skins are without two first rounders over the next two seasons. There are some holes on the Oline and in the secondary that need to be addressed, but I think the decision to address the position that has plagued the Skins for decades was 100% the right move. The Skins still have plenty of picks outside of the 1st rounders and once the cap penalties are lifted, plenty of money to go out and obtain pieces to fit around the franchise QB.

[Oldfan]

Those of you who are saying that the future outcome will determine whether we overpaid or not for RG3 are wrong.

Option A offers a 70% chance of success

Option B offers a 40% chance of success

Option C offers a 25% chance of success

Option A is the right decision even if it fails.

Option B is the wrong decision even if beats the odds and succeeds.

The same is true of Option C.

I think we overpaid.

I won't be proven right even if RG3 is a total bust.

I won't be proven wrong even if he proves to be great.

Because... since we don't have a crystal ball to see the future... the right decision is the option which has the highest chance of success when the decision was made. The outcome cannot change that.

So, we can debate whether the decision increased or decreased our chances of winning more games in the future, but neither side can be proven right no matter what happens.

[Bifflog]

Those of you who are saying that the future outcome will determine whether we overpaid or not for RG3 are wrong.

Option A offers a 70% chance of success

Option B offers a 40% chance of success

Option C offers a 25% chance of success

Option A is the right decision even if it fails.

Option B is the wrong decision even if beats the odds and succeeds.

The same is true of Option C.

I think we overpaid.

I won't be proven right even if RG3 is a total bust.

I won't be proven wrong even if he proves to be great.

Because... since we don't have a crystal ball to see the future... the right decision is the option which has the highest chance of success when the decision was made. The outcome cannot change that.

"Success" is relative. Nobody would choose option B or C over A if the reward was the same. They naturally offer differing risk because they offer differing rewards. You can call into question the assessment of the risk versus the reward if you want, and you're right that that an unwise risk can still turn out positive. But if we're sitting here in 10 years with a title or two to his name, who is going to be the one chirping that it was a lucky grab and a bad decision at the time?

[Oldfan]

"Success" is relative. Nobody would choose option B or C over A if the reward was the same. They naturally offer differing risk because they offer differing rewards.

I laid those numbers out simply to make my point understood. They don't "naturally offer differing rewards." They could represent three Poker hands competing for the same pot, for example.

You can call into question the assessment of the risk versus the reward if you want, and you're right that that an unwise risk can still turn out positive. But if we're sitting here in 10 years with a title or two to his name, who is going to be the one chirping that it was a lucky grab and a bad decision at the time?

I'll be the one chirping.

[MartinC]

So, we can debate whether the decision increased or decreased our chances of winning more games in the future, but neither side can be proven right no matter what happens.

Which makes this whole debate somewhat pointless.

I tend to think we did over pay but that's what happens sometimes in a market when you have more than one buyer bidding blind for a rare and valuable commodity - a franchise QB. The definition of a 'franchise QB' is a bit woolly but 2 games into his NFL career RGIII looks like one. Bottom line though is whatever we paid for RGIII be it a bargain or too high is a sunk cost - those picks are gone - so we need to look forwards now and play the hand we have, which is looking pretty good.

[Bifflog]

I laid those numbers out simply to make my point understood. They don't "naturally offer differing rewards." They could represent three Poker hands competing for the same pot, for example.

Yeah, in that case nobody bets on B or C. And poker hands are not even remotely close to football players, but you know that.

I'll be the one chirping.

Well that will be lovely, .

[Oldfan]

Which makes this whole debate somewhat pointless.

I tend to think we did over pay but that's what happens sometimes in a market when you have more than one buyer bidding blind for a rare and valuable commodity - a franchise QB. The definition of a 'franchise QB' is a bit woolly but 2 games into his NFL career RGIII looks like one. Bottom line though is whatever we paid for RGIII be it a bargain or too high is a sunk cost - those picks are gone - so we need to look forwards now and play the hand we have, which is looking pretty good.

It isn't pointless to discuss this because it's a major move by Shanahan which tells us a lot about his ability to build a winner. I mark him down on this move because you can't build a strong roster if you squander your assets.

Those alloted draft picks should be budgeted with every move as an attempt to make the transaction a bargain.

Sure, the move made it more likely to get a good QB. It also made it less likely that we will give him a high-grade support system.

---------- Post added September-22nd-2012 at 05:34 AM ----------

Yeah, in that case nobody bets on B or C. And poker hands are not even remotely close to football players, but you know that.

My point applied to all decisions, not just football decisions. And the Poker example was meant to show you that differing odds do not "naturally offer differing rewards."

[MartinC]

It isn't pointless to discuss this because it's a major move by Shanahan which tells us a lot about his ability to build a winner. I mark him down on this move because you can't build a strong roster if you squander your assets.

What I would say about that is that if you look back at the picks and cap space we have spent on trying to find a QB say from Pat Ramsey onwards (Shuler is too far back to count) getting RGIII if he does become "the guy" - and it looks like he might well - will save us spending FUTURE picks on that area and allow us to use those on building around RGIII. If you are going to factor the cost of past spent picks into your evaluation it makes sense to also factor in future picks we will not have to spend on the QB position.

[Oldfan]

What I would say about that is that if you look back at the picks and cap space we have spent on trying to find a QB say from Pat Ramsey onwards (Shuler is too far back to count) getting RGIII if he does become "the guy" - and it looks like he might well - will save us spending FUTURE picks on that area and allow us to use those on building around RGIII. If you are going to factor the cost of past spent picks into your evaluation it makes sense to also factor in future picks we will not have to spend on the QB position.

I authored a thread on the high cost of replacing Patrick Ramsey, so I have a very good fix on the cost. But that high cost was the result of mismanagement of assets 1) There was never an attempt to work with Ramsey to improve his game; and 2) Joe Gibbs put no value on QB mechanics, thus he made a mistake drafting Campbell.

It's pretty weak to argue that it's a good idea to overpay for a QB now because we mismanaged the QB position in the past.

I'm looking for bargains on every transaction. Kirk Cousins looks like a steal to me. If offered a draft do-over, I'd keep Cousins and use the three ones and a two to support him.

[Manny555]

NO!

I was going to leave my answer as 2 letters but decided to elaborate to not be a smartaleck!

This was a move that had to be made. Make or break us. We are either going to have an elite team (ie vaGiants with Eli) or bust. But this was a necessary move. Now, I know RG3 may fall in between greatness like the Chargers with Rivers. But the point is, I believe in Shanny and (I think) he sees the successful teams, super bowl winning teams, and the main component is an elite QB.

It's funny too cuz look at how good RG3 has been thus far. When I think of Eli, Phillip, Cutler in their first year in the league, they played more like rookies. You could see their talent but you also saw their immaturity with bad decisions and turnovers. This is another thing that impresses me is is 1 int..... 1 Turnover!!

[MartinC]

I'm looking for bargains on every transaction. Kirk Cousins looks like a steal to me. If offered a draft do-over, I'd keep Cousins and use the three ones and a two to support him.

I have had that thought about Cousins as well - but playing well in preseason mainly against back ups is not always a great predictor of how a player will perform in a regular season game. It will be interesting to see what he does if he ever gets any significant playing time for us.

[Skinsinparadise]

It isn't pointless to discuss this because it's a major move by Shanahan which tells us a lot about his ability to build a winner. I mark him down on this move because you can't build a strong roster if you squander your assets.

To make that assessment though you'd have to judge him completely on this issue in my opinion. Adding draft picks likewise should be considered a plus -- which he's shown an ability to do. If he ultimately moves Cousins for a number 1 draft pick or however it plays out.

It's like talking about someone spending tendencies -- they buy dinner at Taco Bell one night and the other at Ruth's Steak House. You average the two purchases as opposed to saying lets focus on Ruth's Steak House and characterize both meals that way.

Shanny has had the most draft picks in the NFL in the last two years. In my opinion that should be factored in the soup. Ditto how it plays out the next drafts, etc.

For these reasons am cool with this. If you are going to eat at Taco Bell I can take the splurge at Ruth's Steak House especially if its a great meal. Where Shanny IMO screwed up isn't here. But that McNabb deal and his general approach in year 1, to me that's a lost year -- I know we agree on that if I recall right.

[#BgMase76#]

No, I've been a fan for over 30 yrs. I remember watching Theisman,Williams, and Rypien. Then there was the likes of Ferotte, Green, and Johnson. Look around the league. If you don't have a QB you don't have a chance. Last season we tested the adage "If you have two QB'S you don't have one". The league has changed to the point where we don't even have game managers anymore. The single mist important position in the sport only has two classes, boom or bust.There's game changers and everybody else. The draft is a crap shoot. Our FO did their due diligence. In the last two drafts we've passed on Bradford and Gabbert. Coincidence, I think not. It looks like our GM and HC were thinking long term in regards to the franchise. What a refreshing concept. If in the long run RGIII never wins a ring yet has a HOF career the picks are completely validated. We can look at our divisional foes NYG and see what's necessary. Ay a minimum you need an elite QB. The rest comes down to hard work and a few lucky bounces.

[Oldfan]

To make that assessment though you'd have to judge him completely on this issue in my opinion. Adding draft picks likewise should be considered a plus -- which he's shown an ability to do.

The number of draft picks and their rank have to be considered together. Obviously, you can't trade away a 2 and 3 and then claim you got even by adding a 6 and a 7.

It's like talking about someone spending tendencies -- they buy dinner at Taco Bell one night and the other at Ruth's Steak House. You average the two purchases as opposed to saying lets focus on Ruth's Steak House and characterize both meals that way.

If we are assuming we overpay at Ruth's, then it isn't a good idea for roster building. You have to try to make each transaction a bargain because even the best front offices make lots of mistakes that come up empty. That's like paying for a meal and not getting fed.

[Skinsinparadise]

The number of draft picks and their rank have to be considered together. Obviously, you can't trade away a 2 and 3 and then claim you got even by adding a 6 and a 7..

sure but Shanny has been adding 2-5th rounders in the mix

If we are assuming we overpay at Ruth's, then it isn't a good idea for roster building. You have to try to make each transaction a bargain because even the best front offices make lots of mistakes that come up empty. That's like paying for a meal and not getting fed.

IMO while I agree a QB needs a good supporting cast, I do think its ok to pay more for something that isn't easily attainable assuming you are very confident of what you are pursuing. Trading an extra 2nd rounder to land Rocky McIntosh IMO is foolish. What makes a player like him so special or hard to find? Getting a guy who plays QB with Olympic speed, a rocket arm, and very good accuracy IMO aren't easy to find for a bargain in later rounds or could be found period in later rounds unless you get very lucky.

[skinfan2k]

only idiots think we would overpaid for a franchise QB