Jason Campbell improving, according to the stats. *UPDATED WITH FINAL STATS*

[seanyt]

JC is leading the league in 2nd quarter passing percentage with a completion rate of 70.8. But his 4th quarter percentage is 3rd with 69.4. I doubt any team goes into prevent in the 3rd quarter. In fact, there have been several games lately when we were leading in the 3rd quarter, not behind. If the stats backed up what you are saying, JC's completion percentage would be higher in the 4th quarter, not lower even by a small amount.

J.C. for 09 MVP!!!!

[Destino]

He has the WORST losing percentage of any Redskins QB in history with as many starts. No one has ever amassed a worse record in over 75 years of football for the Redskins. The fact that he amassed that epic failure of a losing percentage during a span in which the Redskins made the playoffs twice while he was on the team, makes it that much worse.

Beyond that, what are the quality of the wins we do get from him? 0-4 in 2007 against 10 win teams, 0-4 in 2008 against those teams. 0-1 thus far in 2009 (Eagles will likely hit 10, adding 2 more losses. Broncos might get to 10 which will add a game to the W column)

Whether or not losses are on him solely is irrelevant. He is a 5th year QB in a contract year playing the easiest schedule the Redskins have had in years, yet his win/loss percentage is as horrid as it has been.

Fact is replacing him gives the Skins a better chance of winning games because no one has ever been worse. Plus, he prefers playing elsewhere. The Redskins will claim they want him back and will tender him to build up trade value. If there is a new CBA 0% chance he is back.

Have the redskins ever had a worse 10 year record? Just curious.

[jgbkabkab]

Have the redskins ever had a worse 10 year record? Just curious.

93 - 02 with 90 losses.

[Redskins4ever]

Joe Gibbs knew exactly what he was doing when he maneuvered in the '05 draft to get Jason Campbell. Campbell is still a young QB, still improving. He's showing that his comfort in this offense is growing. We've seen just glimpses of brilliance since he took over for Mark Brunell in 2006. Now, he's at the point now where he's developing into one of the NFL's best QBs.

[TheItalianStallion]

Now if you could break it down just a little further and see what it was for the first 3 Qtrs. Plenty of times(4th Qtr.) he was acquiring Garbage yards when teams played prevent and just gave it up late in the game knowing the win was in the bag...

The only time he's faced prevent D was in the Detroit game.

[MartinC]

Now if you could break it down just a little further and see what it was for the first 3 Qtrs. Plenty of times(4th Qtr.) he was acquiring Garbage yards when teams played prevent and just gave it up late in the game knowing the win was in the bag...

Let's just take this year as my memory is not what it was. Given that all our games this year apart from last week have been very close what garbage time are you thinking of where Campbell has padded his stats?

[MartinC]

Joe Gibbs knew exactly what he was doing when he maneuvered in the '05 draft to get Jason Campbell. Campbell is still a young QB, still improving. He's showing that his comfort in this offense is growing. We've seen just glimpses of brilliance since he took over for Mark Brunell in 2006. Now, he's at the point now where he's developing into one of the NFL's best QBs.

I like Jason and I do think he is winning the opportunity to be our QB next year. But I think saying he is developing into one of the best QBs in the NFL is a stretch.

We can hope I guess.

[Mooka]

I think some of his stats are inflated by us playing from behind so often and a cushy schedule but he's improving in other ways beyond his stats.

I've never seen such control at the LOS from him, especially not on the road. Drawing defenses offsides with a hard count? Complete 180 from him snapping the ball as Ed Reed is sprinting into the backfield. Much better at getting the team in and out of the huddle too.

The only time he's faced prevent D was in the Detroit game.

I don't think he was being 100% literal.

[hieverybody]

Let's just take this year as my memory is not what it was. Given that all our games this year apart from last week have been very close what garbage time are you thinking of where Campbell has padded his stats?

He padded them in the first Giants game on the last Redskins TD drive, in the first Eagles game on the Redskins last TD drive, and on the second-to-last and last drive of the Lions game. I'm a Jason fan, but his stats have been inflated against soft defenses.

[Operations]

The boyz don't like stats that refute their premise.

:rotflmao:

Rollin', rollin', rollin'. Trollin', trollin', trollin'.

Keep it up, tr1! You're the bestest! :laugh:

[Oldfan]

Jason is improving huh? Beside the W-L record lets look at stats that really carry some weight. Some improvement huh?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Year DYAR YAR DVOA (rank)

2007 17 18 22

2008 16 18 18

2009 19 16 21

Those stats support the opinion that Jason has, to this point, been an average QB. You have been claiming he's garbage. Are you now willing to admit you were wrong? If not, why not?

[TheItalianStallion]

He padded them in the first Giants game on the last Redskins TD drive, in the first Eagles game on the Redskins last TD drive, and on the second-to-last and last drive of the Lions game. I'm a Jason fan, but his stats have been inflated against soft defenses.

The only time where our opponent changed their D to exclusively soft coverage was the Detroit game. They kept blitzing in the Philly game, and they only played soft on some of the plays during the last-minute TD drive against the NYG; they were aggressive on others.

[Oldfan]

He padded them in the first Giants game on the last Redskins TD drive, in the first Eagles game on the Redskins last TD drive, and on the second-to-last and last drive of the Lions game. I'm a Jason fan, but his stats have been inflated against soft defenses.

This is a claim you can't possibly support without one helluva lot of work. First, "garbage time" needs to be precisely defined. My own definition would be passing yardage accumulated when the QB's team has no realistic chance to win. Offhand, I can't recall a game like that this year.

Then, you would need to present the stats and show by a comparison that the stats accumulated in garbage time were much higher than those accumulated in non-garbage time.

[TheItalianStallion]

This is a claim you can't possibly support without one helluva lot of work. First, "garbage time" needs to be precisely defined. My own definition would be passing yardage accumulated when the QB's team has no realistic chance to win. Offhand, I can't recall a game like that this year.

Then, you would need to present the stats and show by a comparison that the stats accumulated in garbage time were much higher than those accumulated in non-garbage time.

Well, I think our late drive in the 1st Philly game could qualify as "garbage time," though I don't consider it to be stat-padding, because the Eagles did NOT start playing soft; they kept blitzing. I'll only consider a drive to be "stat padding" if our opponent changes their D to exclusively prevent D, where they play soft zones in an effort to keep everything in front of them, and in the middle of the field. The only time that happened was in the Detroit game. Even in the Detroit game, we still had a shot to win: we cut the deficit to less than 7 with 2:43 to go, and we had all 3 of our timeouts. If the D had forced an immediate 3-&-out, we'd have gotten the ball back with over 2 minutes to go, and we'd still have the benefit of the 2:00 warning.

[Toe Jam]

He's mad sexy. Keep him on the team!

[hieverybody]

The only time where our opponent changed their D to exclusively soft coverage was the Detroit game. They kept blitzing in the Philly game, and they only played soft on some of the plays during the last-minute TD drive against the NYG; they were aggressive on others.

This is a claim you can't possibly support without one helluva lot of work. First, "garbage time" needs to be precisely defined. My own definition would be passing yardage accumulated when the QB's team has no realistic chance to win. Offhand, I can't recall a game like that this year.

Then, you would need to present the stats and show by a comparison that the stats accumulated in garbage time were much higher than those accumulated in non-garbage time.

Just because a team doesn't play prevent D, rushing only 3, doesn't mean that they aren't playing soft. Defenses relax when they are up by more than one score late in the game. NY had our passing game stuffed until that late, meaningless TD drive - I don't think that's a coincidence. Same with Philly and Detroit. Through the first 8 games or so Campbell's numbers were atrocious except when down by more than 8 points (I remember looking it up on NFL.com's splits). He has definitely improved since then though, lifting that same stat to average. Still, his overall stats are juiced due to those three games.

Now, every quarterback plays against soft defenses, so it might all even out in the end.

[Oldfan]

...Through the first 8 games or so Campbell's numbers were atrocious except when down by more than 8 points (I remember looking it up on NFL.com's splits)...

I looked but couldn't find those splits on NFL.com

Down by 8+ -- is that your definition of "garbage time" -- regardless of the time remaining or the defense's scheme?

[TheItalianStallion]

Just because a team doesn't play prevent D, rushing only 3, doesn't mean that they aren't playing soft. Defenses relax when they are up by more than one score late in the game.

Not necessarily, as illustrated by the fact that Philly kept blitzing (i.e. NOT "playing soft").

NY had our passing game stuffed until that late, meaningless TD drive - I don't think that's a coincidence.

IMO we were holding our own passing game back that afternoon due to a combination of running left a bunch of times, committing unforced turnovers, or the D having difficulties getting off the field. During the limited number of times where we had the ball and chose not to run left a bunch of times, we actually passed the pass pretty well; unfortunetely two of our possessions started with some good passes that resulted in us picking up multiple 1st downs, only to have JC make an unforced error and turn the ball over.

[TMK9973]

I admit, I was far from a JC supporter, but I have changed over the last few weeks. I want him to stay.

However -I also do NOT think he will ever be a great QB, or one that will get us to a championship. He is not a bad QB, and once we changed play calling it showed that he has some strengths that can be used. But he is still a Avg QB that holds on to the ball to long and makes some bad choices.

The play calling now has a lot more quick passes, roll outs, etc.... that minimize his problems.

My question is it seems that on this board there are those that want to Keep JC and those that want to Draft a QB. Why cant we do both? Why cant we draft a QB and groom them while giving JC another year, or even two? Perhaps we get lucky and the skins have a Trent Diffler kind of year where a AVG QB was able to win.

[ZRagone]

I fear Campbell is going to turn out to be the next Trent Green. Someone we give up on, goes to another team, and gives stability for a near decade while we languish trying to find a QB

[Braxford]

I fear Campbell is going to turn out to be the next Trent Green. Someone we give up on, goes to another team, and gives stability for a near decade while we languish trying to find a QB

Watch, if the Skins let JC go the Carolina Panthers will try to snatch him up in a heartbeat.

[MartinC]

I fear Campbell is going to turn out to be the next Trent Green. Someone we give up on, goes to another team, and gives stability for a near decade while we languish trying to find a QB

To be fair we did not give up on Trent Green. It was the uncertainty over the change in ownership and some resulting paralysis in decision making which lead to Green hitting free agency and taking the offer from the Rams.

From a pure football perspective we wanted to keep him.

[Mahons21]

Yes, some sense! Campbell is definitely improving. Remember how everyone was talking about Campbell throws a low number of interceptions but also a low number of touchdowns because he doesn't take risks...and that Campbell would never get past the stage to be a good NFL QB. Well these numbers suggest those people were pretty much wrong...

Campbell's TDs have gone up pretty significantly. So have his INTs. I don't know if I would call that regression as much as he's taking more chances. And his chances are resulting in more TDs. You could say Campbell is beginning to step over the threshold into being a good NFL QB. Let's see what he does with these last few games. Next year he'll probably be even better.

-So we claimed he didn't get a lot of td's because he didn't take risks, now his TDs have gone up but so have his int's.. And we were wrong? Sounds like we were dead on.. I'd say the people who were wrong were those leaning on his low # of ints as evidence to why he is a good qb, who claimed turnovers as the end all be all, and didn't comprehend that if you were going to get more tds than the int total would increase as well. Hope you weren't one of those

[TD_washingtonredskins]

This is a claim you can't possibly support without one helluva lot of work. First, "garbage time" needs to be precisely defined. My own definition would be passing yardage accumulated when the QB's team has no realistic chance to win. Offhand, I can't recall a game like that this year.

Then, you would need to present the stats and show by a comparison that the stats accumulated in garbage time were much higher than those accumulated in non-garbage time.

Not only that, but all QBs (except maybe Brees and Manning this year) play in garbage time at some point. So, in order to accurately measure it for Campbell, you'd have to then remove it from every other QB's stats too.

In the end, stats even themselves out and comparing Campbell to Romo sits to pee to McNabb to Brady to Manning SHOULD be an apples to apples comparison.

[wvtbred]

Those stats support the opinion that Jason has, to this point, been an average QB. You have been claiming he's garbage. Are you now willing to admit you were wrong? If not, why not?

I don't like him because he is "at best" average. I don't like him because I want and think we deserve an "elite" QB. I like the strong willed, rah rah leader type and Jason is not and never will be that. He also is not a NFL speed QB. Whether it's mechanics or mental speed he just doesn't have it.

Also can't stand the fact open competition for the QB position didn't occur in the beginning of '08 or '09 and that Jason seems to be the reason Gregg Williams wasn't hired as HC.

Not sure where you can get the numbers from but it would be interesting to compare Jason's numbers this year against others in the last year of their contract. It's not unusual for a guy to play lights out when his contract is ending and if this is Jason "lights out" he won't play at this level again once he receives that big contract.

Again all of this IMO and you don't have to like it or agree with it.