Analysis: As Obama nears finish line, can Clinton rebound in time?

[#98QBKiller]

IMO, this has already damaged the party and it's going to hurt the nominee in November. Realistically, Hillary should step down and let Obama prepare for November, the longer she drags this out, the more it helps out McCain.

Analysis: As Obama nears finish line, can Clinton rebound in time?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/07/political.analysis/index.html

By Alan Silverleib and Mark Preston

CNN Washington Bureau

NEW YORK (CNN) -- Barack Obama took a major step Tuesday toward securing the Democratic presidential nomination. Not only did he score a convincing victory in North Carolina; but by drawing to a virtual tie in Indiana he made an already difficult path for Hillary Clinton to the presidential nomination significantly more challenging.

But Clinton vowed to soldier on, telling supporters at a rally in Indiana "it's full-speed on to the White House."

Obama wakes up this morning with a larger lead in pledged delegates as well as the overall popular vote. For Clinton, time for a rebound may be slipping away.

The finish line is 2025 delegates, and with North Carolina and Indiana in the rear view mirror, only six contests and 217 pledged delegates remain. Over the next month, in addition to wooing the dwindling pool of voters who have yet to weigh in on this nomination battle, Clinton and Obama aides tell CNN they are actively pursuing the roughly 280 uncommitted super delegates.

These party insiders and elected officials -- who are granted special voting privileges at the convention -- will eventually determine the next Democratic nominee.

Pressure is now on Clinton to somehow find a way to stop what increasingly looks like an unstoppable Obama march to the nomination.Watch how Clinton won the Indiana primary »

Heading into Tuesday, Clinton had to win solidly in Indiana and pull closer than expected in North Carolina. Instead, the opposite happened. In North Carolina, Obama cruised to an easy 14-point win largely on the strength of overwhelming support of African-Americans and self-identified liberals and moderates. Geographically, Obama won every region with the exception of the state's westernmost counties.

Clinton eked out one of the narrowest wins of this primary season in Indiana based on her continued solid support among older voters. Obama won voters age 17-64 by 6 points, a margin which paled in comparison to Clinton's 38-point spread among voters age 65 and older.

As we have seen in previous primaries, Obama performed better among college educated voters, while Clinton captured the support of voters without a college degree.

When it came to experience versus change -- central themes in this campaign -- Clinton once again dominated those voters more concerned with experience. Obama handily won voters who placed a higher priority on the need for change in Washington.

Looking ahead, there are some bright spots for the Clinton campaign. Next week the campaign shifts to West Virginia, where the demographic and socioeconomic terrain ought to favor her. On May 20, the candidates will battle it out in Kentucky and Oregon. Clinton is also expected to do well in Kentucky, while she will try to defy expectations in Oregon. Her support among Hispanics may bode well for her on the June 1st Puerto Rico primary. Two days later, Clinton will battle it out with Obama in Montana and South Dakota -- the final two states to weigh in on this marathon primary season. But unless she scores landside victories in the remaining contests, most pundits predict the delegates will be split about evenly.

One of the main challenges for Clinton over the next month will be to raise enough money to compete with Obama in the final contests. Super delegates will be closely monitoring Clinton's financial situation to assess her continued viability.

Another hurdle for Clinton will be to find some way to convince Democratic leaders that the votes in Michigan and Florida should be counted.

[ChocolateCitySkin]

whats the clinton spin on last night?

[gbear]

well at least one report last night had her cancelling her appearances this morning...have no idea where I heard/read that so don't ask for a link (a night without meds makes for a scary morn)...and I don't know what it would mean either.

[Corcaigh]

My 14 year old watched Clinton's Indiana speech last night and was far from impressed. Over and over again she rattled on about gas prices and not much else.

[Corcaigh]

whats the clinton spin on last night?

Her supporters were claiming a 'split' :laugh:

And that Obama said he would win Indiana but he didn't.

They seem to be missing the point is that she is the one who needs to be making ground, not him.

[twa]

Will she accept reality?...or go nuclear?

My votes on nuclear. :laugh:

[Fergasun]

She's hoping Obama loses so she can be the 2012 nominee...

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

well at least one report last night had her cancelling her appearances this morning...have no idea where I heard/read that so don't ask for a link (a night without meds makes for a scary morn)...and I don't know what it would mean either.

Hillary is supposedly going to meet with some superdelegates today.

They have a lot to discuss.

[alexey]

Also, May 6th Obama's campaign hit a self-set target of 1,500,000 donors. It's on their site. They haven't made an official annoucement yet, so maybe something is brewing.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

I thought both candidates reached to one another last night, even noticing that Clinton had a few jabs left for him. I think they both realize that its time to bring the party together.

And though Clinton is going to go on, I think she knows she is doing so only as a formality now. I expect her to concede soon after west virginia, for the simple fact that she can go out with a win. But, I think she already is preparing that concession speech.

[Popeman38]

IF she wins every remaining primary by a margin of 58% to 42% AND manages to win the Super Delegates by the same margin, she still can't win. It is over.

[The Sisko]

Turn out the lights....

[DjTj]

IMO, this has already damaged the party and it's going to hurt the nominee in November. Realistically, Hillary should step down and let Obama prepare for November, the longer she drags this out, the more it helps out McCain.

Meh, I'm not sure if that's even really true anymore.

I think it hurt both candidates a little bit in the period from Ohio and Texas through to Pennsylvania, but at this point, when it is becoming increasingly clear that Obama will be the nominee, and we know it's not going to go to the Convention, there's no problem with extra campaigning. Donations received now can't be used in the general election, so they might as well run some ads in West Virginia (a state the Dems will need to win in November) and Kentucky (a state where they want to be competitive).

It was bad when Obama was taking a beating (but that had as much to do with Rev. Wright as with Hillary), but at this point, he's just taking a victory lap. I think that especially with Obama, the more exposure he gets, the better he will do.

[Kilmer17]

It hurts because of money.

If she had left after Super Tuesday or even after the Chesapeak Primaries, when everyone knew she couldnt win, then Obama would have been raising money to fight McCain. I saw an estimate last night that the two of them have spent over 150 million dollars since Super Tuesday.

I'll be shocked if Clinton quits before the convention at this point.

[Henry]

whats the clinton spin on last night?

That Florida and Michigan should count.

[DjTj]

It hurts because of money.

If she had left after Super Tuesday or even after the Chesapeak Primaries, when everyone knew she couldnt win, then Obama would have been raising money to fight McCain. I saw an estimate last night that the two of them have spent over 150 million dollars since Super Tuesday.

But campaign finance rules dictate that individuals can give $2300 for the primaries and $2300 for the general. The money is not fungible. Every dollar raised now can be mirrored for the race in November - it's just a simple matter of sending out another e-mail to your 1.5 million donors.

I'll be shocked if Clinton quits before the convention at this point.

She'll be out the first week of June unless she can somehow win West Virginia and Kentucky by double digits. The superdelegates are starting to break Obama's way, and they will force Hillary out.

[Midnight Judges]

In the long run, this extended campaign might be what's best for the Democrats. When the general election rolls around, any Republican who is still talking about Wright is going to look like a partisan hack clinging to old news.

Hillary will accept the VP nomination and like it. Then Obama will sick her on McCain and continue with his positive approach.

[Kilmer17]

Oh man, that's the GOP wet dream. The only thing they'd like more than Obama/Hillary ticket is a Hillary/anyone.

Hillary doesnt help Obama at all. In fact, she hurts him.

How can he be the agent of change, and have her on the ticket? How can he talk about turning the page with her on the ticket?

Obama/ Hillary would be stuck trying to win the same campaign that Goe and Kerry lost. Basically "we have 16 states locked up, and need to shoot the moon and win 3 of these 4 Mich, OH, PA, FL".

If Obama wants to beat McCain, I think all he needs to do is put Richardson on the ticket, announce Biden would be Sec State and name Gore to as Sec Interior/Energy. Ithink that not only beats McCain, but gets the Dems to 60 in the Senate.

[Thiebear]

If Obama becomes President she can't run in 2012

If she screws this up for him, she can run.

Sounds like an easy thought process to me.

[Henry]

Oh man, that's the GOP wet dream. The only thing they'd like more than Obama/Hillary ticket is a Hillary/anyone.

Hillary doesnt help Obama at all. In fact, she hurts him.

How can he be the agent of change, and have her on the ticket? How can he talk about turning the page with her on the ticket?

Obama/ Hillary would be stuck trying to win the same campaign that Goe and Kerry lost. Basically "we have 16 states locked up, and need to shoot the moon and win 3 of these 4 Mich, OH, PA, FL".

If Obama wants to beat McCain, I think all he needs to do is put Richardson on the ticket, announce Biden would be Sec State and name Gore to as Sec Interior/Energy. Ithink that not only beats McCain, but gets the Dems to 60 in the Senate.

I agree with pretty much every single word of this post. An Obama/Richardson ticket, with Biden at Secretary of State would definately cause me to rethink my vote for McCain.

Obama/Hillary, on the other hand, would solidify my decision to vote for McCain.

[gbear]

At this point, I'm not sure what damage is left to be done by the prolonged primary for the Dems. Get more bitter? I think that ship sailed.

What I kind of hope for is the close primary bringing in a whole new wave of voters. Registration has been off the charts. Turn out has been sky high. At the very least, the party has managed to make stakeholders in the political process of a ton of new voters. Whether they will be able to translate the new activism/voters into votes in the general election remains to be seen, but then nobody ever thought the new voters would be enough in the primaries. At some point a new generation gets active. The Dems are clearly hoping that time is now. It also sets them up with infrastructure in a lot of competetive states. Ads for primaries are exposure going into the general election too.

[The Sisko]

Oh man, that's the GOP wet dream. The only thing they'd like more than Obama/Hillary ticket is a Hillary/anyone.

Hillary doesnt help Obama at all. In fact, she hurts him.

How can he be the agent of change, and have her on the ticket? How can he talk about turning the page with her on the ticket?

Obama/ Hillary would be stuck trying to win the same campaign that Goe and Kerry lost. Basically "we have 16 states locked up, and need to shoot the moon and win 3 of these 4 Mich, OH, PA, FL".

If Obama wants to beat McCain, I think all he needs to do is put Richardson on the ticket, announce Biden would be Sec State and name Gore to as Sec Interior/Energy. Ithink that not only beats McCain, but gets the Dems to 60 in the Senate.

I was thinking Edwards to "balance out" the ticket . However, in retrospect, I think you're right, Richardson might be a better choice.

OTOH, if Obama is at all worried about being assasinated, Hillary would be the best choice ever for VP. Doing so would make him another historic first-the country's first bubble wrapped POTUS!

[DjTj]

I agree with pretty much every single word of this post. An Obama/Richardson ticket, with Biden at Secretary of State would definately cause me to rethink my vote for McCain.

Nobody names their Secretary of State during the campaign, but I'm sure they'll float the idea of Biden, just to get people like you to rethink their vote for McCain ... they'll also float other names too, in other states, to get other people thinking.

I think Richardson made a strong play for the VP slot when he endorsed Obama, but by not smoothing things out with the Clintons first, he completely bungled it. Richardson seems like a good guy, but he hasn't been much of a politician on the national stage, and although he is an experienced administrator, I don't think he brings much foreign policy gravitas to the table ... he is certainly a leading candidate, but I don't know, he doesn't excite me much, and the Obama campaign is all about excitement. He just kind of feels like dead weight somehow.

Obama-Clinton is not going to happen. I don't think Hillary wants it. I know Obama doesn't want it. As the race gets close to its end, I think Hillary might want a little bit of input, but I think what Obama really needs is someone with Hillary's appeal but not Hillary's negatives...

My frontrunner is Kathleen Sebelius. She is a strong female politician of about the same age as Hillary, and as the governor of Kansas, she obviously has some small-town, blue-collar appeal. I think most that are supporting Hillary right now would also support Sebelius. Claire McCaskill and Janet Napolitano also fit this mold, but Sebelius seems to be the most impressive.

The other route would be not to worry about Hillary voters but to find an elder statesman type to counter McCain. Wesley Clark has some appeal here if the Clintons would sign off on it ... He could maybe bring some of the Clinton supporters over, and would also provide the military gravitas that Obama lacks. Jim Webb would also fit in this role as someone who shares Obama's vehement opposition to the Iraq War and a kind of outsider/maverick image. He would also put Virginia seriously in play, which is where I think Obama can really win this election.

There is no way Hillary will be VP. It will be pretty interesting to see who Obama choose though ... and how much that decision is informed by Hillary.

[Buford T. Justice]

IMO, this has already damaged the party and it's going to hurt the nominee in November. Realistically, Hillary should step down and let Obama prepare for November, the longer she drags this out, the more it helps out McCain.

I wonder if this extended process is hurting McCain. He does not seem very relevant in the news or public eye right now. He is only mentioned because of his gas tax holiday play; which is also supported by Clinton. I would imagine McCain is gathering talking points but I do not think what he learns will be too relevant in November. The Republicans seem to dominate the uneducated working class and older Americans--who seem to vote as unconditionally as black people.

[Switchgear]

Good article this morning on WTOP. Some highlights:

Clinton lends herself $6.4M as Obama's lead grows

WASHINGTON (AP) - A campaign aide says Hillary Rodham Clinton lent herself $6.4 million in the past month.

Politically wounded and financially strapped, Clinton plunged back into the presidential campaign Wednesday even as Barack Obama declared that Tuesday's primary results left him with a "clear path to victory."

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Obama was 184.5 delegates shy of the 2,025 needed to secure the Democratic nomination, his campaign finally steadying after missteps fiercely exploited by the never-say-die Clinton.

What a close contest, they're counting half-delegates now.

"With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days," Plouffe wrote. "While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or millions of supporters, volunteers and donors."

.

.

The Obama-Clinton contest has been polarizing, protracted and often bitter, hardening divisions in the party, according to exit polls from the two states.

A solid majority of each candidate's supporters said they would not be satisfied if the other candidate wins the nomination.

Fully one-third of Clinton's supporters in Indiana and North Carolina went beyond mere dissatisfaction to say they would vote for McCain instead of Obama if that's the choice in the fall.

There is the damage that is being done by Clinton continuing to run. Assuming those being polled are serious and not just making noise, there is going to be quite a bit of crossover voting this election. November is a long way off, so there's time for these people to cool off and fall in line, but there's no guarantee they will.