Analysis: As Obama nears finish line, can Clinton rebound in time?

[Kilmer17]

If Obama puts Hillary on the ticket, it will be easy for McCain to paint them as more of the same disaster that the Dems have brought us over the last 2 years.

Obama needs to make this race about the future. He loses if people focus on what he and Hillary have allowed to happen while controlling both houses of Congress.

[Jumbo]

What about Obama on the ticket with a moderate republican as the VP?

Well, yeh, sounds great, but I may as well consider lunch with Jessica Elba.

[Jumbo]

OH c'mon, BK17. I know its on your wet-dream list but there's no way in hell that's going to happen.

Is there? :paranoid:

:laugh:

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

What about Obama on the ticket with a moderate republican as the VP?

There are rumors that Chuck Hagel is on Obama's list

of VP candidates.

[Predicto]

I predict Wesley Clark as Obama's VP choice.

Of course my predictions are always wrong, which is why they call me Predicto.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

If Obama puts Hillary on the ticket, it will be easy for McCain to paint them as more of the same disaster that the Dems have brought us over the last 2 years.

Obama needs to make this race about the future. He loses if people focus on what he and Hillary have allowed to happen while controlling both houses of Congress.

Do you think its more likely that voters blame two of the 100 Senators for Congress "allowing" this situation to occur, or that they will blame the person who actively took and promoted these bad policies, as well as someone who is proposing the same policies going forward?

[Kilmer17]

It should be no suprise at this point that I like Obama. Not his policies (most of them anyway), but I like his style and his demeanor. I'd be hugely disapointed if he chose Hillary. Because it would mean that the last 12 months has been a complete snow job.

I dont think he's like that.

I also think he really doesnt like the Clintons at all or what they stand for in the political world. I believe he actually thinks he can change the tone and change the world.

[Jumbo]

Well, one good thing, even as mcuh as I don't like Hillary, I like all three candidates more than the last two. It would be really interesitng though to see Hillary engage in some serious party unification behavior before too much longer and totally surprise me.

[Henry]

It should be no suprise at this point that I like Obama. Not his policies (most of them anyway), but I like his style and his demeanor. I'd be hugely disapointed if he chose Hillary. Because it would mean that the last 12 months has been a complete snow job.

I dont think he's like that.

I also think he really doesnt like the Clintons at all or what they stand for in the political world. I believe he actually thinks he can change the tone and change the world.

Kilmer, you're scaring me. I'm not sure I like agreeing with you so strongly on something.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

I predict Wesley Clark as Obama's VP choice.

Of course my predictions are always wrong, which is why they call me Predicto.

Wesley Clark is an adamant Hillary Clinton supporter.

But things do change.

[Kilmer17]

Do you think its more likely that voters blame two of the 100 Senators for Congress "allowing" this situation to occur, or that they will blame the person who actively took and promoted these bad policies, as well as someone who is proposing the same policies going forward?

My point is that Obama is too smart to even allow that chance to exist.

There is a reason though that McCain doesnt seem to have the Bush stink attached to him in the polls. Not sure what that reason is, though I think the "maverick" image is part of it, but I do know that the fact he seems a bit immune is not lost on Obamas operatives.

If he chose Clinton, you can guarentee a slew of comparison ads showing America in 2006 vs today. Gas prices, unemployment, stocks, confidence. All of it has gotten worse since the Dems took over. That's an easy pitch to hit.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

My point is that Obama is too smart to even allow that chance to exist.

There is a reason though that McCain doesnt seem to have the Bush stink attached to him in the polls. Not sure what that reason is, though I think the "maverick" image is part of it, but I do know that the fact he seems a bit immune is not lost on Obamas operatives.

If he chose Clinton, you can guarentee a slew of comparison ads showing America in 2006 vs today. Gas prices, unemployment, stocks, confidence. All of it has gotten worse since the Dems took over. That's an easy pitch to hit.

I'm not saying I disagree with you on Obama and who he'll choose. My only point was that, regardless of who he chooses, I suppose I have some faith that ultimately the American people will attach that "stink" to McCain because he IS so similar to Bush on the issues.

[#98QBKiller]

I predict Wesley Clark as Obama's VP choice.

Of course my predictions are always wrong, which is why they call me Predicto.

That would be a surprise out of left field (no pun intended), but a good one IMO.

[Kilmer17]

I'm not saying I disagree with you on Obama and who he'll choose. My only point was that, regardless of who he chooses, I suppose I have some faith that ultimately the American people will attach that "stink" to McCain because he IS so similar to Bush on the issues.

Whether he is or isnt is irrelevant. Currently, voters dont perceive him that way. And that's all that matters.

Things can and will change though. Which is why I dont see Obama even cracking that door open an inch. Best to leave it slammed shut and have the future to himself with no ties to the past.

[Predicto]

Wesley Clark is an adamant Hillary Clinton supporter.

But things do change.

I know. Which is why he will be so useful to Obama as an olive branch to Hillary supporters in the general election. And will appease the fears of older voters that Obama lacks the necessary gravitas for the White House. And maybe undermine some of John McCain's military aura.

And while he is kind of an dickish oppotunistic self-promoter, Clark is also very smart and has an enormous amount of international experience from being Supreme Commander of NATO.

And Sarge hates him, which is a plus in my book.

I dunno. Makes sense to me. Which is why it won't happen.

[Jumbo]

It should be no suprise at this point that I like Obama. Not his policies (most of them anyway), but I like his style and his demeanor. I'd be hugely disapointed if he chose Hillary. Because it would mean that the last 12 months has been a complete snow job.

I dont think he's like that.

I also think he really doesnt like the Clintons at all or what they stand for in the political world. I believe he actually thinks he can change the tone and change the world.

Again, someone writes of a very similar outlook to what is becoming mine. I have been finding it hard to stay with McCain for months and am continuously more pulled to Obama. Like Henry's post I referenced earlier, I can track with yours here virtually word for word. As I watch and listen to him I feel I am viewing someone more "real." I approve of how he responds to challenges. I am liking the idea of our own politcians and foreign government representatives dealing with this guy as the leader of the U.S. I think some shake-up in the status quo of same ole same ole would be a good thing and he's the best chance of that--but some of his policy ideas do bother me. Hopefully if elected he chooses solid advisors. While I regulalry share some views with you and even more with Henry, it's interesting to find all three of us in such a similar place on such a big issue. Don't let KingBryce (I mean "Coach Williams") see this or we'll hear about "signs."

[Jumbo]

I'm not saying I disagree with you on Obama and who he'll choose. My only point was that, regardless of who he chooses, I suppose I have some faith that ultimately the American people will attach that "stink" to McCain because he IS so similar to Bush on the issues.

I think a stink that McCain has dodged for ahwile is one more discussed in the past of his "flip-flopping more than Kerry dreamed of" in closeness to Bushyism these days than he was 3-4 years ago. While that was a topic in the past with some legs, it had oddly died as McCain campainged his way to an easy win.

[EersSkins05]

Wesley Clark is an adamant Hillary Clinton supporter.

But things do change.

Sure he is. While she's still in the race.

[Predicto]

I think a stink that McCain has dodged for ahwile is one more discussed in the past of his "flip-flopping more than Kerry dreamed of" in closeness to Bushyism these days than he was 3-4 years ago. While that was a topic in the past with some legs, it had oddly died as McCain campainged his way to an easy win.

I also wonde at the total silence about the Keating Five issue. I know that was a long time ago, but I seem to recall that it was a pretty awkward situation for McCain and he was not clearly exonerated (at all).

Are the Democrats just saving this issue for closer to the general election?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

I also wonde at the total silence about the Keating Five issue. I know that was a long time ago, but I seem to recall that it was a pretty awkward situation for McCain and he was not clearly exonerated (at all).

Are the Democrats just saving this issue for closer to the general election?

That would be nice, but one would have to assume the Democrats are organized in some way in order to save an issue.

[DjTj]

Whether he is or isnt is irrelevant. Currently, voters dont perceive him that way. And that's all that matters.

Do you have some polls or articles about this? I think the comparisons will be emphasized much more strongly as the election approaches, and the closeness to Bush will really only matter on one issue: Iraq.

I think a stink that McCain has dodged for ahwile is one more discussed in the past of his "flip-flopping more than Kerry dreamed of" in closeness to Bushyism these days than he was 3-4 years ago. While that was a topic in the past with some legs, it had oddly died as McCain campainged his way to an easy win.

McCain hasn't really been attacked yet. We are still six months from November. The Democrats have been busy fighting each other, but when the time comes, I think they'll hit the flip-flopping angle pretty hard, as well as him hugging Bush and wanting to stay 100 years in Iraq.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BpZYuNDezI

[Kilmer17]

Do you have some polls or articles about this? I think the comparisons will be emphasized much more strongly as the election approaches, and the closeness to Bush will really only matter on one issue: Iraq.

McCain hasn't really been attacked yet. We are still six months from November. The Democrats have been busy fighting each other, but when the time comes, I think they'll hit the flip-flopping angle pretty hard, as well as him hugging Bush and wanting to stay 100 years in Iraq.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BpZYuNDezI

Sure-

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105073/mccains-67-favorable-rating-highest-eight-years.aspx

John McCain's 67% favorable rating is the highest of any of the three major candidates running for president, and ties for his highest in Gallup polling history.

http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080418/NEWS08/746701024

And here's Bush-

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

CBS/New York Times 5/1-3/08 28 63 9 -35

.

USA Today/Gallup 5/1-3/08 28 67 5 -39

.

CNN/Opinion Research 4/28-30/08 28 71 1 -43

.

FOX/Opinion Dynamics RV 4/28-29/08 32 60 8 -28

.

CBS/New York Times 4/25-29/08 28 65 7 -37

.

NBC/Wall Street Journal RV

4/25-28/08 27 66 7 -39

.

Pew 4/23-27/08 27 65 8 -38

We can argue the reasons, but it's very clear that the masses do not associate McCain with Bush.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

I think you're right Kilmer, but I think that will change when the media and the voters focus on McCain in the general.

[Predicto]

That would be nice, but one would have to assume the Democrats are organized in some way in order to save an issue.

LOL. True dat.

[Jumbo]

I remember McCain as really having handled the Keating thing fairly well and isn't truly tainted. But I should review to verify that since it's been awhile.