Analysis: As Obama nears finish line, can Clinton rebound in time?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

If Obama becomes President she can't run in 2012

If she screws this up for him, she can run.

Sounds like an easy thought process to me.

Yea, but since women live longer than men she could probably run in 2016!

[gbear]

Is it bad that I would like to see an election where there is considerable crossover in both parties? What a novel idea that more people may vote for or against a canidate rather than a party...Good (if people take the time to come to know for whom thye vote) !

[Henry]

I think Richardson made a strong play for the VP slot when he endorsed Obama, but by not smoothing things out with the Clintons first, he completely bungled it. Richardson seems like a good guy, but he hasn't been much of a politician on the national stage, and although he is an experienced administrator, I don't think he brings much foreign policy gravitas to the table ... he is certainly a leading candidate, but I don't know, he doesn't excite me much, and the Obama campaign is all about excitement. He just kind of feels like dead weight somehow.

...

My frontrunner is Kathleen Sebelius. She is a strong female politician of about the same age as Hillary, and as the governor of Kansas, she obviously has some small-town, blue-collar appeal. I think most that are supporting Hillary right now would also support Sebelius. Claire McCaskill and Janet Napolitano also fit this mold, but Sebelius seems to be the most impressive.

I don't want this to come out the wrong way, but frankly Obama needs a white guy. Believe it or not, the white man is still a pretty big voting bloc, and it would probably be a good idea to keep that in mind.

You may be right about Richardson though. An overture towards Hillary supporters would be a good idea. Not being a Hillary supporter myself I'm not sure who that would be.

The other route would be not to worry about Hillary voters but to find an elder statesman type to counter McCain. Wesley Clark has some appeal here if the Clintons would sign off on it ... He could maybe bring some of the Clinton supporters over, and would also provide the military gravitas that Obama lacks. Jim Webb would also fit in this role as someone who shares Obama's vehement opposition to the Iraq War and a kind of outsider/maverick image. He would also put Virginia seriously in play, which is where I think Obama can really win this election.

Webb's an interesting idea. I was thinking John Warner myself. Don't know if he's interested though. As a Virginian I'd love either.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

I don't want this to come out the wrong way, but frankly Obama needs a white guy. Believe it or not, the white man is still a pretty big voting bloc, and it would probably be a good idea to keep that in mind.

You may be right about Richardson though. An overture towards Hillary supporters would be a good idea. Not being a Hillary supporter myself I'm not sure who that would be.

Webb's an interesting idea. I was thinking John Warner myself. Don't know if he's interested though. As a Virginian I'd love either.

I like the idea of Chuck Hagel.

I just did a little wiki search on Warner though.... and he definitely SOUNDS like a good idea at first glance. How old is he?

[Burgold]

I wonder if in some perverse way at this point Clinton extending the campaign is helping Obama. I agree that there has been damage done to Obama'a rep and he's taken a beating, but on the other hand that's now old news. If McCain wants to bring up Wright... well, it's old news. If McCain wants to talk about elitism... that too has been talked to death. Many of the sticks available to beat on Obama have been used and so if there brought out again the shock impact, the frenzy won't really be that powerful. By the time, October runs around people may just turn off to these "value" issues.

It could work the other way too, it could become a bigger truth because you've been hearing about these tangential things for a long time, but I imagine or at least I'm already hearing of Wright fatigue.

Hillary may have accidentally done Obama a favor by neutering these topics.

[Henry]

I like the idea of Chuck Hagel.

I just did a little wiki search on Warner though.... and he definitely SOUNDS like a good idea at first glance. How old is he?

Aw hell, did I say John? I meant MARK Warner. :doh:

I like John too, but he's too old and he's a Republican, so I don't think that would work.

[StillUnknown]

i think she knows its over. she's just looking for the best way out right now. it might be beneficial to Obama for her to stay in until May 20th.

she's goin to win West Virginia and Kentucky whether she drops out or not, it would be slightly embarrassing for Obama to be beaten convincingly by a candidate who dropped out. If they wait until May 20th, HRC gets her victory his Kentucky, Obama wins later in the night in Oregon.

Michigan and Florida will be worked out now because Obama wins the popular and delegate votes even when you include them

[DjTj]

I don't want this to come out the wrong way, but frankly Obama needs a white guy. Believe it or not, the white man is still a pretty big voting bloc, and it would probably be a good idea to keep that in mind.

Obama's already half a white guy.

If there are white male voters who only vote for white males, then Obama doesn't have a chance with them anyways ... if putting a white man on a ticket is a proxy for putting someone more experienced and familiar, then I think someone like Richardson or Sebelius fit that role regardless of their race/gender.

Hillary may have accidentally done Obama a favor by neutering these topics.

What doesn't kill him only makes him stronger...

I think Obama is definitely a weaker candidate now than he was a few months ago, but it's not really Hillary's fault. Reverend Wright is a real person that says real stupid things, and it was going to hurt him whether or not Hillary was in the race. If anything sticks, it will be something that McCain would have brought up anyways. If it fades away, then he has been successfully inoculated.

I think there's another simple truth here, and it's that Obama does very well with extra face time ... the more exposure he gets, the better the poll numbers seem to look. He's not the kind of candidate you want to hide away for a few months, repackage, and present in a carefully orchestrated campaign ... you want him talking all the time in as many states as possible, and Hillary has given him a platform to do just that for the past few months.

[Henry]

I think there's another simple truth here, and it's that Obama does very well with extra face time ... the more exposure he gets, the better the poll numbers seem to look. He's not the kind of candidate you want to hide away for a few months, repackage, and present in a carefully orchestrated campaign ... you want him talking all the time in as many states as possible, and Hillary has given him a platform to do just that for the past few months.

Interesting thought, though. Obama's a fairly young guy. McCain ... isn't

It may have worked in Obama's favor to be able to campaign hard and non-stop against McCain straight-up for the past few months. McCain already looks tired, and he hasn't even gotten to the general election yet. If Obama could have forced McCain to try and keep pace he could really wear him down.

Instead, McCain has gotten a well-needed break.

[Midnight Judges]

Oh man, that's the GOP wet dream. The only thing they'd like more than Obama/Hillary ticket is a Hillary/anyone.

Hillary doesnt help Obama at all. In fact, she hurts him.

How can he be the agent of change, and have her on the ticket? How can he talk about turning the page with her on the ticket?

Obama/ Hillary would be stuck trying to win the same campaign that Goe and Kerry lost. Basically "we have 16 states locked up, and need to shoot the moon and win 3 of these 4 Mich, OH, PA, FL".

If Obama wants to beat McCain, I think all he needs to do is put Richardson on the ticket, announce Biden would be Sec State and name Gore to as Sec Interior/Energy. Ithink that not only beats McCain, but gets the Dems to 60 in the Senate.

It wouldn't be a GOP wet dream because people don't vote based on vice Presidents and Obama is a much better candidate than Kerry or Gore. Besides, it doesn't matter what the GOP wants. This election is the Democrats' to lose. Linking the failures of the last 7 years to McCain will be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Hillary helps Obama because many of her supporters view her as experienced and him as inexperienced (however misguided that may be). She brings those people back to him. I would call most of their bluffs but not all of them. Add up Hillary's supporters and Obama's supporters and it wouldn't matter if the GOP had the next Abe Lincoln.

I know I'm in the minority here but I think she will accept the Vice Presidency, kicking and screaming of course.

[DjTj]

Interesting thought, though. Obama's a fairly young guy. McCain ... isn't

It may have worked in Obama's favor to be able to campaign hard and non-stop against McCain straight-up for the past few months. McCain already looks tired, and he hasn't even gotten to the general election yet. If Obama could have forced McCain to try and keep pace he could really wear him down.

What kind of pace would Obama be setting? Would they have been running TV commercials? Debates? Nothing really happens in campaign years after the nominees are chosen and before the convention ... The media spends some time chasing down VP rumors, but there is almost nothing adversarial - it's mostly organizational and strategic.

Coverage of John Kerry declined from April through June in 2004. He didn't start making headlines again until the Convention in July ... The Swift Boat Vets didn't start running commercials until August.

Obama and Hillary both take cheap shots at McCain at every campaign stop right now. That will end when the primraies end. After Hillary drops out, the heat will be turned down on McCain, not up...

Instead, McCain has gotten a well-needed break.

I don't deny that it is a great thing for McCain that he has had a lot of time off, but I don't think it really hurts Obama either. He's young, and he doesn't need the time off ... he needs more time to hone his message and he seems to do it best in front of crowds of people.

I guess at the end of the day, I don't think McCain vs. Obama is going to be qualitatively different whether it started in April or whether it starts in June. If there were an ideological divide in the Democratic Party, it might have forced Obama to take some positions he would regret, but the campaign has been about nothing, so nothing will really linger...

[Destino]

I want Obama/Biden but it's not going to happen. Despite the fact Biden is an expert on stick his foot in his mouth - the man has an understanding of problems in the US, and the ability to communicate them, second to none. He's one of the few political leaders that I can listen to and think "this guy knows his stuff". Most just sound confused all the time.

[EersSkins05]

I keep hearing "count Michigan and Florida" as if those states had valid primaries in which all parties participated and the vote was completely normal.

Here's why that isn't at all true, and why the argument to "count" those primaries fails:

1) The candidates agreed not to campaign in those states, and while Clinton campaigned in Florida anyway, Obama didn't campaign in either state.

2) Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan when their "primary" was held. Let me put that in layman's terms. If you wanted to vote for Obama in Michigan, he wasn't on the ballot. lol

3) These states KNEW that their delegates would be unseated at the convention if they held their primaries early. For whatever reason, they did it anyway. Accountability, while not often seen in American politics, still has to count for something.

[Guest sith lord]

I guess guys like Sean Hannity and Micheal Savage are looking kind of stupid today as they thought the Rev Wright controversy would destroy Obama.

[StillUnknown]

I want Obama/Biden but it's not going to happen. Despite the fact Biden is an expert on stick his foot in his mouth - the man has an understanding of problems in the US, and the ability to communicate them, second to none. He's one of the few political leaders that I can listen to and think "this guy knows his stuff". Most just sound confused all the time.

i like Biden as well. if i weren't supporting Obama, i would've supported Biden.

on another note, George McGovern, who endorsed HRC earlier on, is not advising her to drop out of the race

[mjah]

2) Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan when their "primary" was held. Let me put that in layman's terms. If you wanted to vote for Obama in Michigan, he wasn't on the ballot. lol

And even after a massive chunk of Obama supporters stayed home for the Michigan primary, Hillary still only got 55% of the vote. "Undecided" got 40%. :laugh:

3) These states KNEW that their delegates would be unseated at the convention if they held their primaries early. For whatever reason, they did it anyway. Accountability, while not often seen in American politics, still has to count for something.

In Florida at least, the argument is being made that the Republicans in the state legislature rammed the measure through over Democrat objections, so it's unfair to punish the state's Democratic voters by not seating the delegates. I have no idea whether or not that's true on its face, and never mind that the state Democrats probably rolled over instead of fighting it tooth and nail like they should have.

Overall, though, I agree that rules are rules. It is a sticky situation -- the DNC has rules, but a Republican-dominated state legislature can and would love to thwart them, disenfranchise a bunch of voters and set themselves up for a crucial swing state victory. Theoterically, I believe the roles could be reversed if a two-way horserace for the Republican nomination thwarted the rules.

With Michigan for sure, and maybe in Florida, the only way those delegations will be seated at the DNC is if the delegates get split in proportion to the national popular vote, or something similar. Hopefully it won't matter by the time the convention rolls around...

[StillUnknown]

watching Hillary at a stump speech in WV, she sounds defeated to be honest. not much enthusiasm in her voice. like she's just going through the motions.

[#98QBKiller]

I want Obama/Biden but it's not going to happen. Despite the fact Biden is an expert on stick his foot in his mouth - the man has an understanding of problems in the US, and the ability to communicate them, second to none. He's one of the few political leaders that I can listen to and think "this guy knows his stuff". Most just sound confused all the time.

I like Biden, but I think Obama/Richardson makes much more sense at this point.

[NavyDave]

The votes in Michigan and Florida should count, while dead democrats votes in Chicago and Jersey shouldn't

[Tulane Skins Fan]

The votes in Michigan and Florida should count, while dead democrats votes in Chicago and Jersey shouldn't

So Hillary should get 100% of the Michigan delegates because Obama did what he was supposed to do and took his name off of the ballot?

[NavyDave]

I want Obama/Biden but it's not going to happen. Despite the fact Biden is an expert on stick his foot in his mouth - the man has an understanding of problems in the US, and the ability to communicate them, second to none. He's one of the few political leaders that I can listen to and think "this guy knows his stuff". Most just sound confused all the time.

Isn't Biden the idiot blocking drilling oil in the Gulf and Alaska and thinking people are dumb enough to believe the there isn't that much oil to make a difference there comment last week?

What the GOP should be doing is showing America who is the puppetmaster behind Obama...... Socialist George Soros

[mjah]

What the GOP should be doing is showing America who is the puppetmaster behind Obama...... Socialist George Soros

:laugh:

The GOP is the last group of people on Earth who should be lecturing others about putting puppets up for election. They're the worst offenders around.

[EersSkins05]

:laugh:

The GOP is the last group of people on Earth who should be lecturing others about putting puppets up for election. They're the worst offenders around.

Seriously. You can practically see the strings hanging off GWB's back.

At least Obama seems capable of abstract thought.

[Jumbo]

I agree with pretty much every single word of this post. An Obama/Richardson ticket, with Biden at Secretary of State would definately cause me to rethink my vote for McCain.

Obama/Hillary, on the other hand, would solidify my decision to vote for McCain.

This mirrors my position. I may be closer to switching to Obama anyway. I don't see Hillary as veep and I don't think a Clinton is going to bow out. I more expect Hillary to fight tooth and nail on Florida & Michigan, going at least for leverage for influence on some of Obama's choices for cabinet and maybe veep, and promises on policy moves she desires.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

This mirrors my position. I may be closer to switching to Obama anyway. I don't see Hillary as veep and I don't think a Clinton is going to bow out. I more expect Hillary to fight tooth and nail on Florida & Michigan, going at least for leverage for influence on some of Obama's choices for cabinet and maybe veep, and promises on policy moves she desires.

What about Obama on the ticket with a moderate republican as the VP?