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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I hope you are right but I just don't see it this way, and I know this is the Daniels thread but we don't have much to talk about these days so let's have a go at this. 

 

I love the LB additions, I think that is obvious.  I certainly do not see the same improvements with the safeties as Martin is totally unproven and Chin, well we are not sure what we will get there just yet.  You are right about Quinn vs Old Jack. But the defensive coordinator is Whitt not Quinn and although exciting we don't know if his defensive will transfer this group from one of the worst to one of the best in one season as Quinn did in Dallas. He also has nothing like Micah Parsons to help make that happen.  

 

While the DTs may in fact be one of the best duos in the league neither is an impact player. Other than Luvu and perhaps Wagner (loved that signing) they do not have one impact player on this defense, and of course great LBs are not as important today as they were in the past.  And the corners are simply below average to bad.  Dicey corner play can kill a defense alone, especially since they have no real impact pass rushers.  .   

 

Chinn was #2 in rookie of the year voting.   He slid after as some say because he was misused after that.  But its not as if he hasn't shown anything.  Martin played well towards the end of the season and he was a very good college player.  They were missing Forrest for most of last year, and he played well the season before.

 

Whitt has a big time reputation as a teacher of the secondary.  Quinn for the defensive line. 

 

How did this defense rank #3 in 2022?  Was that all Kam Curl and Sweat because that's really the main assets they had over now.   Sweat had 8 sacks that year.  Same number as Armstrong who they just signed.  Curl was a nice player but not a game changer, doesn't do picks. Wasn't even ranked in the top 25 when personnel people around the league picked for ESPN the best players at different spots. 

 

Wagner and Luvu are miles better than Holcomb and Davis.  It's taking a crap unit and making it great.  So not sure how that doesn't at least keep them treading water from that team.

 

You'd figure Newton makes some kind of impact.  My point is on paper its at least as talented as the 2022 defense.  With coaches who are known to be a lot better. 

 

 

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Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Chinn was #2 in rookie of the year voting.   He slid after as some say because he was misused after that.  But its not as if he hasn't shown anything.  Martin played well towards the end of the season and he was a very good college player.  They were missing Forrest for most of last year, and he played well the season before.

 

Whitt has a big time reputation as a teacher of the secondary.  Quinn for the defensive line. 

 

How did this defense rank #3 in 2022?  Was that all Kam Curl and Sweat because that's really the main assets they had over now.   Sweat had 8 sacks that year.  Same number as Armstrong who they just signed.  Curl was a nice player but not a game changer, doesn't do picks.

 

Wagner and Luvu are miles better than Holcomb and Davis.  It's taking a crap unit and making it great.  So not sure how that doesn't at least keep them treading water from that team.

 

You'd figure Newton makes some kind of impact.  My point is on paper its at least as talented as the 2022 defense.  With coaches who are known to be a lot better. 

 

 

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We all  saw that 2022 defense, are you really claiming that was a great or even very good defense?  Chin's rookie season was a long time ago, and although he improved Quinn can't even be considered an average starting safety in this league at this point in time.   While they missed Forrest for sure he certainly is not in the top 50% of all starting safeties, thus average or slightly below.  

Edited by Darrell Green Fan
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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

We all  saw that 2022 defense, are you really claiming that was a great or even very good defense? 

 

Yes, call me a rebel.  i am indeed claiming it was a very good defense.  It's nuts. :ols:  Ranked #3 in yards.  Ranked #8 in DVOA.  #7 from PFN.   Rivera's defense fluctuated from very good, to bad in alternate years.  We can say we all thought the real story is only the bad was meaningful not the good.  But that's rewriting history.  I'd say 99% of the board expected the defense to kill it in 2023, plenty of pundits, too (if was the offense that was the big question) the defense looked very good in 2022.  I don't recall too many in the 2023 off season saying its a paper tiger and wait for the collapse of the unit. 

 

45 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 Chin's rookie season was a long time ago, and although he improved Quinn can't even be considered an average starting safety in this league at this point in time.   While they missed Forrest for sure he certainly is not in the top 50% of all starting safeties, thus average or slightly below.  

 

At least judging by PFF metrics, Chinn followed his rookie year with a good year #2, was so so the last 2 years, so not that long ago, he's 26. 

 

Quan you say can't even be considered an average starting safety by you.  But by PFF scores and comments from coaches he's an emerging very good player.    In my amateur opinion, I thought to my eyes he played very well towards the end of the season. I was rooting for losses for the higher draft pick and he was one of the pain in the ass players for me who I was hoping would cool it, especially in the Jets game.  :ols: And I loved his college tape, he was one of my fav players in that draft.  Guys like Logan Paulsen who rewatches tape to death, thought he was very good too. 

 

Darrick Forrest with a 67 PFF score, 4 picks in 2022 -- that feels below average to you.  Cool.  But not to many.   He was one of the players many of us and the coaches (based on their rhetoric) were jazzed to see last year.  And some reporters (if I recall Keim was one) referred to the poor communication in the backfield last year to partly be about missing Forrest.

 

Clearly, you are going glass half empty on this unit.  It's cool to each their own.  But as a dude that often likes to say I wouldn't bet money on this or that -- on this point I'd bet you end up wrong and I'd put money on this one.  I know you say you rooting to be wrong.   I don't think you got to worry about this.   I think the worry is can the O line hold up.  The defense at a minimum I'd be surprised if its not top half of the league. 

 

I do think this defensive coaching staff is loaded with studs.  I don't expect players to under acheive like last year.  Also, when you got a pass happy offense that can't convert that will downgrade most defenses.  You can't be on the field all the time without paying a price.  That will change digesting the rhetoric so far this off season.

 

And I am far from a pollyana type I was a pessimist like you seem to be now about the team heading into the last season.  I crapped on Ron and the off season moves all late Spring and summer long.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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32 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

We all  saw that 2022 defense, are you really claiming that was a great or even very good defense?  Chin's rookie season was a long time ago, and although he improved Quinn can't even be considered an average starting safety in this league at this point in time.   While they missed Forrest for sure he certainly is not in the top 50% of all starting safeties, thus average or slightly below.  

Admittedly I’m bullish on the defensive staff, especially whitt and Quinn but I don’t think you can undersell what great teachers and schemers they are. Quinn has led great defenses everywhere he has gone. Whitt has taken multiple undrafted and low round secondary players and turned them into turnover machines if not stars at every stop. While diggs in Dallas does not fit that category, they found a way to accept that he’ll frequently get torched while routinely scheming and coaching him to become a turnover machine. They turned bland into an nfl record holder. See what Whitt did in Green Bay with Sam shields and many others. 
 

We have three guys (Forbes, Davis and Mathis) who have underperformed so far and I have to believe they’ll get at least one of them to reach their potential (I’m betting Forbes, not much faith in Mathis). This is to say nothing about what Wagner and Luvu can help bring out of Davis and/or Magee. 
 

It also is to say nothing about what their coaching and schemes can do to elevate the already good players on the roster. 
 

Quinn and Peters have also emphasized that they look for violent and explosive players and that everyone they bring in they have a role in mind and an idea of how to maximize what they do well. So far they have done exactly that and I have to believe they will put these guys in a position to elevate their games - it’s encouraging to see they love Martin and brought Forbes in at Dallas - Forbes buying in will be key to him improving. 
 

Ultimately, Quinn and Whitt have gotten every defense they’ve coached to be some of the better, if not best units in the league in terms of generating turnovers. Even if the defense isn’t top 10 in yards allowed, I expect it to be high in sacks and turnovers with the players they have. Giving more opportunities to Jayden and the offense while physically beating teams up is a recipe for us to be competitive and a fun to team to watch this year. We may only win 7-8 games and miss the playoffs but I will be shocked if we aren’t an enjoyable to watch, well coached team that plays a physical brand of football this year. 

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I'll chime in to the debate on the defense and add that good players play like bad players in lost seasons.  The defense should get a huge lift just from Allen and Payne returning to their career standard, and they could be even better this year.  I think we're going to run a 3-4 and that the scheme will be better for them.  The DL rotation should also hopefully be deeper.  Crossing my fingers that Phidarian Mathis and Johnny Newton are healthy contributors this year.  That alone would be game changing for the D.  Then you add in two really big time starters to the LBer room, hopefully a nice prospect in Magee, and a couple of big overhang defenders in Chinn and Hampton, and our boxes should be much better.  I'll be surprised if we don't excel at stopping the run next season.  This is a super physical and aggressive group now.

 

The passing defense might be more of an adventure, but I do think we have quite a bit of raw talent in our secondary.  I didn't have a huge problem with the drafting of Forbes and Quan last year.  Forbes was a reach, but probably only by about half a round, the kid is talented, and I think Dallas actually had their eye on him, and that Quinn definitely doesn't see him as a write off.  And I always liked St Juste and Forrest.  IMO the collapse of last year's secondary wasn't about a lack of raw talent, it was about coaching and communication.  Glue players like Bobby McCain and Forrest and Holcomb never seem that important on their own, but your critical position groups come undone when they lose those binding agents.  Seems like we got some potent new ones in Sainristil and Chinn and Bobby Wagner.

 

I think Ron's regime actually had an eye for DB talent and they were in the process of rebuilding the secondary, they just weren't able to get the project off the floor and develop their prospects after getting them in the door as their entire program collapsed.  That should change under the new regime.  The group could go from league worst to above average, especially if Sainristil comes in, plays well, and provides leadership early in his career.  There is more untapped upside in our secondary than at any other spot aside from QB.

 

Regarding the edges: certainly we lost some high end talent and lack the kind of stud pass rusher that generates 40-50 pressures and tends to define great defensive fronts.  But I think we can mitigate a JAG edge rotation by transitioning to a 3-4 and utilizing our talent at linebacker.  As a committee Armstrong, Luvu, Ferrell, and Fowler, plus Jamin and Wagner as blitzers from inside had 32 sacks last season.  We can get 30 sacks from them again.  Our interior rush should be good enough to do a lot of the heavy lifting of commanding doubles and generating the pressure for them.  I think 45 sacks as a defense is definitely obtainable, which would put us around the league average.  Add that to the predictions that we should be very strong and physical against the run, and that the secondary now has a ton of ball hawks in it, and I don't think it's a stretch to see us going from being league worst to top 16 on defense next year.  They could be way better than that too.  There is a huge amount of upside on this side of the ball for us.

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Defenses tend to fluctuate year to year, which is why its pointless to build a team around "defense first." It requires way too much of an investment for inconsistent at best payoff.

 

Our defense will be better this year. Probably by a decent amount. If for no other reason than due to the sheer volatility of defense in today's NFL. But when you factor in the upgraded coaching and talent at LB, I think we'll definitely be around 15th in defensive ranking.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

the secondary now has a ton of ball hawks in it, and I don't think it's a stretch to see us going from being league worst to top 16 on defense next year.  They could be way better than that too.  There is a huge amount of upside on this side of the ball for us.

 

Ron's defenses had their ups and downs but they weren't much of a turnover type defense.  That's what Quinn and Whitt seem to major in.

 

Quan had 2 picks in a limited stint last year.  3 picks the season before in college.  Forrest with 4 picks in the last season he played. 

 

Sainstrill with 6 picks last year in college and supposedly studies defenses so much he calls out the plays for the rest of the secondary presnap.    Forbes as we know majored in picks in college.

 

I agree this team should turnover the ball. 

 

Then you add weapons who can blitz.  Luvu, Wagner, Sainstrill, Quan, Chinn. Even Jamin  Heck Magee had a 90 grade as a pass rusher from PFF last year.  Quan did as well from PFF.  

 

The pressure is coming but maybe not from the DEs as much -- feels very much like Gregg Williams' defenses here.  Should be fun to watch.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Defenses tend to fluctuate year to year, which is why its pointless to build a team around "defense first." It requires way too much of an investment for inconsistent at best payoff.

 

Our defense will be better this year. Probably by a decent amount. If for no other reason than due to the sheer volatility of defense in today's NFL. But when you factor in the upgraded coaching and talent at LB, I think we'll definitely be around 15th in defensive ranking.

 

Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, and San Francisco always seem to have great defenses.  The Bucs, Bills, Rams, and Titans have been consistently strong too.  The Seahawks used to be good every year too before they had to reboot their D.  I'm not sure great defense is much more volatile than great offense, I think ours was just very volatile because our coaching and talent and culture have been so up and down.  We lacked a foundation for real greatness, and relied on getting career years from a couple of good players IMO.

 

We've got a really strong defensive minded coaching staff now, and they have the energy to build a great program from scratch. We also juiced up our talent level on D with our FA dollars and draft picks the last two years.  Four top 50 picks and Luvu, Armstrong, and Wagner signed.  Already had Jamin, Forrest, and St Juste worth developing.  Allen and Payne in their prime years and under contract.  The talent level is good.  It'd be nice to have a 40 pressure edge rusher again, but Cleveland and Baltimore didn't have that last year and were two of the top defenses.  We have a bunch of 20 pressure guys, and can rush the QB via committee.

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The composition of the defense lays out the road map for developing Jayden next year.  Just run the ball and lean on the defense.  Let Jayden work through mistakes and play from the pocket, and trust the defense to get the ball back.  Trust Robinson and Ekeler and Rodriguez to keep us ahead of the chains.  We don't need to reinvent the wheel, just follow the tried and true method of developing a QB via complimentary football.  Slow expansion of the passing game as Jayden masters what's on his plate.

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10 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

The composition of the defense lays out the road map for developing Jayden next year.  Just run the ball and lean on the defense.  Let Jayden work through mistakes and play from the pocket, and trust the defense to get the ball back.  Trust Robinson and Ekeler and Rodriguez to keep us ahead of the chains.  We don't need to reinvent the wheel, just follow the tried and true method of developing a QB via complimentary football.  Slow expansion of the passing game as Jayden masters what's on his plate.

 

Agree and that point seems to be telegraphed as their game plan but will see if they can stick to it.

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3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Chinn was #2 in rookie of the year voting.   He slid after as some say because he was misused after that.  But its not as if he hasn't shown anything.  Martin played well towards the end of the season and he was a very good college player.  They were missing Forrest for most of last year, and he played well the season before.

 

Whitt has a big time reputation as a teacher of the secondary.  Quinn for the defensive line. 

 

How did this defense rank #3 in 2022?  Was that all Kam Curl and Sweat because that's really the main assets they had over now.   Sweat had 8 sacks that year.  Same number as Armstrong who they just signed.  Curl was a nice player but not a game changer, doesn't do picks. Wasn't even ranked in the top 25 when personnel people around the league picked for ESPN the best players at different spots. 

 

Wagner and Luvu are miles better than Holcomb and Davis.  It's taking a crap unit and making it great.  So not sure how that doesn't at least keep them treading water from that team.

 

You'd figure Newton makes some kind of impact.  My point is on paper its at least as talented as the 2022 defense.  With coaches who are known to be a lot better. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2024-05-21 at 6.23.42 AM.png

 

Everybody is terrified of getting excited (myself included) because we've done it so many times and been burned every time so our brains are all telling us to stay grounded wait for results before we get hyped but this is the year that we actually have reason to be prematurely excited and we all know why but are afraid to let it out.

 

As has been stated the changes going on around here are real this time, there's no way of knowing what next year will bring or even the year after that for that matter but you're no longer being naive if you think these changes are going to have a positive impact on the win column because there's no reason to believe they won't anymore.

 

 

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39 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, and San Francisco always seem to have great defenses.  The Bucs, Bills, Rams, and Titans have been consistently strong too.  The Seahawks used to be good every year too before they had to reboot their D.  I'm not sure great defense is much more volatile than great offense, I think ours was just very volatile because our coaching and talent and culture have been so up and down.  We lacked a foundation for real greatness, and relied on getting career years from a couple of good players IMO.

 

We've got a really strong defensive minded coaching staff now, and they have the energy to build a great program from scratch. We also juiced up our talent level on D with our FA dollars and draft picks the last two years.  Four top 50 picks and Luvu, Armstrong, and Wagner signed.  Already had Jamin, Forrest, and St Juste worth developing.  Allen and Payne in their prime years and under contract.  The talent level is good.  It'd be nice to have a 40 pressure edge rusher again, but Cleveland and Baltimore didn't have that last year and were two of the top defenses.  We have a bunch of 20 pressure guys, and can rush the QB via committee.

 

i have heard analytically minded people say defense is more volatile.  I am assuming that means that is true on both a game to game and season to season basis.  Especially if you measure it in EPA where turnovers and big plays given up played a oversized role in the metric.  By contrast defensive metrics like defensive success rate a lot more sticky.  I cannot remember how defensive success is calculated I think on first down its measured as giving up three yards or less, on second down its something different.  I think that talent and coaching make that sticky whereas turnovers tend to be volatile (though over multiple seasons you can probably see trends) and big plays allowed also tends to be volatile even with good defenses.  

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1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, and San Francisco always seem to have great defenses.  The Bucs, Bills, Rams, and Titans have been consistently strong too.  The Seahawks used to be good every year too before they had to reboot their D.  I'm not sure great defense is much more volatile than great offense, I think ours was just very volatile because our coaching and talent and culture have been so up and down.  We lacked a foundation for real greatness, and relied on getting career years from a couple of good players IMO.

 

We've got a really strong defensive minded coaching staff now, and they have the energy to build a great program from scratch. We also juiced up our talent level on D with our FA dollars and draft picks the last two years.  Four top 50 picks and Luvu, Armstrong, and Wagner signed.  Already had Jamin, Forrest, and St Juste worth developing.  Allen and Payne in their prime years and under contract.  The talent level is good.  It'd be nice to have a 40 pressure edge rusher again, but Cleveland and Baltimore didn't have that last year and were two of the top defenses.  We have a bunch of 20 pressure guys, and can rush the QB via committee.

9ers defense was actually pretty bad last year. Only three of last year's top 10 defenses were top 10 the year before. You have a couple teams that are consistently pretty good but for the most part its hard to bank on a good defense for more than like maybe a couple years tops. Then you gotta start paying everyone and you get a fall off. Its not like offense where as long as your QB is good, you'll always be at least pretty good offensively.

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IMO, the main thing to look at with our defense is/was talent vs usage, and how the usage changes under this staff.  Forbes and St Juste for example are pretty talented, but they have to be played to their strengths, and .  They also have to know exactly what’s expected of them and have adequate/quality support (from the pass rush and safeties).

 

I don’t know for sure who’s going to step up to lead the secondary, but I have faith that this staff will do a far better job of making sure everyone knows what’s expected, and won’t go the square peg/round hole route we’ve seen so often.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, redskinss said:

 

Everybody is terrified of getting excited (myself included) because we've done it so many times and been burned every time so our brains are all telling us to stay grounded wait for results before we get hyped but this is the year that we actually have reason to be prematurely excited and we all know why but are afraid to let it out.

 

As has been stated the changes going on around here are real this time, there's no way of knowing what next year will bring or even the year after that for that matter but you're no longer being naive if you think these changes are going to have a positive impact on the win column because there's no reason to believe they won't anymore.

 

 

 

I get that.

 

To me this coming season feels very wild cardish.  Rookie QB.  So many new moving parts.

 

But if I had to bet on one thing it would be the defense.  Quinn has a history of revamping a bad defense within a season.

 

Also I do think its a talented unit.  IMO more talented or at least as much as the 2022 defense which was a highly ranked unit. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Has Dann Quinn ever run a 3-4 defense?

 

I thought he was known for running a 4-3 hybrid defense.

 

 

I am not even close to an expert so I base this opinion solely on Washington, but when I hear "3-4 defense" my stomach turns. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I get that.

 

To me this coming season feels very wild cardish.  Rookie QB.  So many new moving parts.

 

But if I had to bet on one thing it would be the defense.  Quinn has a history of revamping a bad defense within a season.

 

Also I do think its a talented unit.  IMO more talented or at least as much as the 2022 defense which was a highly ranked unit. 

 

And I don't know why everyone is acting like what Houston did last year was unheralded and unlikely to be repeated.

It's not like they set the world on fire going 14 and 3 en route to a superbowl victory, they started 0-2 then 4-4 and finished 10 and 7.

That means they had expected growing pains and got better and better throughout the year to finish 3 games above .500.

That's very repeatable, I saw a stat today that in the last 21 years 19 teams have gone from worst to first in their division.

The eagles and cowboys are both better than us until we prove otherwise but they both also imploded to finish their seasons and the cowboys have done nothing to rectify that implosion.

With so much turnover this year it's impossible to know what we'll look like this year and how quickly it will come together but I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had a Texans like season.

 

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7 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

And I don't know why everyone is acting like what Houston did last year was unheralded and unlikely to be repeated.

It's not like they set the world on fire going 14 and 3 en route to a superbowl victory, they started 0-2 then 4-4 and finished 10 and 7.

That means they had expected growing pains and got better and better throughout the year to finish 3 games above .500.

That's very repeatable, I saw a stat today that in the last 21 years 19 teams have gone from worst to first in their division.

The eagles and cowboys are both better than us until we prove otherwise but they both also imploded to finish their seasons and the cowboys have done nothing to rectify that implosion.

With so much turnover this year it's impossible to know what we'll look like this year and how quickly it will come together but I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had a Texans like season.

 

 

Agree -- they were also the most injured team in the NFL last year, especially on the O line, yet lived to tell the tale

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The D will prove as a stabilizing unit and keep us competitive in most games. Offense I expect to be up and down, with some breakout games where Daniels looks like a future stud and some games where he gets his butt kicked. The hope is he shows growth and development as the season progresses.

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Color me not worried about the defense. I expect a top ten type of unit as long as Quinn is here.

 

Kingsbury is the biggest concern for me, and I’m not sure why he gets so much blind optimism from the fanbase. He had one good season in Arizona before the league figured him out. After that he flat out sucked. 

 

The dude was coaching QBs in college which is about the equivalent of Kurt Warner bagging groceries before his return. 
 

I hope he can adapt his second time around, for Jayden’s sake and for the team’s.  
 

 

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2 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

about the equivalent of Kurt Warner bagging groceries before his return. 

 

Interesting analogy considering you're arguing for pessimism.

 

My take on kingsbury is that the nfl knows more than we do about the talent of certain people and kingsbury is one of them.

It's the reason he was given a head coaching job by the cardinals without almost no experience or results as an nfl offensive coordinator and its the reason he was highly sought after by the Raiders and we had to use our magic ( ba dum tssss) to steal him away.

Kingsbury to me is an unknown by have little doubt as to his talents because people with far more knowledge and experience in football than me believe in him.

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Just now, redskinss said:

 

Kingsbury to me is an unknown by have little doubt as to his talents because people with far more knowledge and experience in football than me believe in him.

Joe Barry and Jim Haslett both had long careers. JDR got more chances. ****ty coordinators get jobs all the time. 
 

Kingsbury has a resume. Why not judge him based on results and not based on other people’s opinions of him?

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4 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Color me not worried about the defense. I expect a top ten type of unit as long as Quinn is here.

 

Kingsbury is the biggest concern for me, and I’m not sure why he gets so much blind optimism from the fanbase. He had one good season in Arizona before the league figured him out. After that he flat out sucked. 

 

The dude was coaching QBs in college which is about the equivalent of Kurt Warner bagging groceries before his return. 
 

I hope he can adapt his second time around, for Jayden’s sake and for the team’s.  
 

 

 

Kingsbury is the biggest gamble, but feels like there's a lot of upside.  There seems to be a focus on the new staff in terms of self-reflection and self-evaluation, we've heard Quinn talk about it at length.  His hiatus from the NFL after getting fired was likely self-imposed considering he was also offered the Raiders OC job, so doesn't seem like there was a shortage of desire for his services.  I think there's ample room to consider we'll be getting a wiser Kingsbury who may have been far better suited as an offensive tactician than a head coach, at least at the time and for now.

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