2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Forehead]

I think San Francisco is honestly a pretty good example of what you can do as long as you take care of almost everything else.  Purdy isn't bad but no one is going to mistake the kid for a Mahomes or Josh Allen.

 

I can't believe I'm about to use the Jets as an example but I agreed with what they did.  They built a great defense.  They had a true #1 in Garrett Wilson and potential in the backfield with Breece Hall.  They had put some resources into the O-Line with Becton, Tomlinson, and Vera-Tucker.

 

At that point, I'm totally fine with selling the farm for an Aaron Rodgers type if they're available.  I still think it would have worked out really well for them if his Achilles hadn't turned him into their version of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

Point is, I still think we roll with Howell on his cheap deal and see what he's got.  Every draft class has some QB people are going to fall in love with.  Shoot, that list I posted a page ago, even the crappy years, people were all in on a lot of those guys.  This team has far bigger issues than QB.

[Chump Bailey]

1 hour ago, RVAskins said:

If Howell was a 1st round pick, I don't think we'd even have this discussion

 

This I agree with but only because of the draft capital invested. Do we really know what we have in Howell? I hope someone does in the organization certainly but I think the argument if we just do X, Y, and Z and build around them is just as dubious and fraught with almost the same risk as taking a QB early. Just my 2 cents - thanks to all for the stimulating discourse.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

 

We really don’t know. It may absolutely be just as much of a gamble to “stick” with Howell as it would be to swing on a blue chip QB prospect if they’re on the board. Maybe even more so. There is no obvious “bird in hand” situation here, Howell is a talented wildcard doing his best in a bad situation. That doesn’t mean he projects to being a franchise guy if the situation changes, it’s not that easy. 
 

QB’s in the top-5 can be a crapshoot, yes. But a lot of those busts were picked by bad teams with bad FO’s and bad coaching staffs. We hope to have neither of those things—this potential top-5 pick is ours courtesy of Snyder’s ghost. We hope to have a competent, if not outright innovative, FO in place for this draft. You hope the scale is weighted towards you when you do that and pick a QB, if they find one worthy. Things don’t happen in a vacuum even though the position is hard to draft, when you zoom out. 

 

Agree.

 

I am surprised this is even a debate.       It's that wild to me that some are checking out on even considering a QB.   And considering is the operative word.  Not do but consider.  Sam being elevated to untouchable status which is how I perceive the point because why else would you bypass even the idea of taking a QB with a top 5 pick in a rich QB class unless you are absolutely confident that you have your franchise QB. 

 

People can come up with any isolated example to make any point.  I can do the same.  If The 49ers can find Purdy in the 7th why not us?  Sure.  Instead of worrying about taking a LB early for a change as some whine about I could say London Fletcher and Antonio Pierce went undrafted let alone Ivan Pace last year.  We'd be foolish to even use a pick on LB let alone a top pick.

 

I've been here a long time as many others here.  And I spent a lot of time on those QB threads.  And yes in real time people were very protective of the QBs we've had in house until it ran its course and then those points came off like punch lines later on.    I agree Howell has been better than Jason, RG3 (post 2012) Ramsey, Haskins, etc.  And people were very feisty making their points -- me included especially for RG3.  So I am familiar with the emotion.  And I get it.  But i am not into romanticizing our young QBs anymore.  I've liked a lot of what I've seen.  But Howell doesn't strike me as elite tooled QB.  Is it good enough to have a good QB?  Sure.  But we don't pick early in a QB rich draft that often.  So I am at least looking at other options and weighing it all. 

 

We likely are picking top 5 in a QB rich draft.  When was that last time that happened.  And people want to take a hard pass?   When this team passed over Herbert or thought Jason Campbell was better than Aaron Rodgers or name that other dumb mistake --- few said that as a mistake at the time.  Later it clearly was.  It aged that way.  Lets' do out homework before just running with the emotions in the moment.   I understand in real time it might feel prudent to run with the status quo.  But lets not have round 10 of it felt right at the time but it didn't age well.   Let's give it thought.  It deserves serious thought.  And that also includes riding with Howell.  if the thought is we put heavy emphasis on thinking about his tools and other options and we decided to run with Howell -- great. 

 

i am not taking a stand outside of put some real thought into this.  And i should stop arguing this.  Because I am not really concerned that someone will get what they want where the GM will put no thought into this.  I'd say 99% chance they will weigh the idea of Howell versus draft options.  The GM will say of course Howell is the guy while weighing options.  That's how it works.  You got to publicly back the guy no matter what.  Even the Cards were saying Rosen is the guy initially while intending to draft Murray.  And then we start hearing leaks from Keim or whomever about what they think about the QBs.  Not saying they draft a QB.  I'd guess 50-50.  But I'd say 99% chance they put some serious time and thought into it, which I gather will bother some here if that happens.  But for me it would be doing what any functional franchise would do.

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[FootballZombie]

If you hand a new regime a premium draft pick that puts them in position to guarantee a specific QB or two there is no way they don't evaluate the heck outta the upcoming QB class.

 

If we walk into the offseason with pick 2 or 3, you can know 100% that at least one of the high end QBs will be there for the taking when you get to podium. That gives you the opportunity to build your offseason around a draft QB if desired, no guesswork required.

 

That does not mean we go the draft QB route, but we would for sure be popping into every major QB pro Day.

[RVAskins]

27 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am surprised this is even a debate.       It's that wild to me that some are checking out on even considering a QB.   And considering is the operative word.  Not do but consider.  Sam being elevated to untouchable status which is how I perceive the point because why else would you bypass even the idea of taking a QB with a top 5 pick in a rich QB class unless you are absolutely confident that you have your franchise QB.

I wouldn't say Howell is untouchable but we've ignored our OL for so long that we need to give major consideration to which OL is available. If there is a QB that they are in love with then pull the trigger but I personally don't think QB is at the top of the list as far as needs go. I totally get it that franchise QB's are hard to come by. We just can't afford to do another swing and a miss with our top pick.

[Conn]

5 minutes ago, RVAskins said:

I wouldn't say Howell is untouchable but we've ignored our OL for so long that we need to give major consideration to which OL is available. If there is a QB that they are in love with then pull the trigger but I personally don't think QB is at the top of the list as far as needs go. I totally get it that franchise QB's are hard to come by. We just can't afford to do another swing and a miss with our top pick.

If you think you have a shot at a stud QB and you don’t know if you already have one, that person is always at the top of your needs list. Always. 
 

Whether our next GM and staff think we have that shot, and how they weigh it against Howell, is the operative question. Not whether you need that guy if he’s there. If he’s there, he jumps above every single other need every time. The OL is 5 starters and 4-6 backups. It takes a lot of various resources to fix it. Not just one high pick, that doesn’t flip the switch on the OL. There’s no such thing as a need so big that it eclipses the chance to get your franchise QB. The only question is who is that guy, if anyone. Maybe there’s no one this year. Maybe they love Howell. But the question has to be asked and no amount of OL needs outweighs that imo. We have a ton of assets to work on the OL either way—including the high 1st rounder if that turns out to be the most prudent decision. It’s just not guaranteed to be.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Conn

[Forehead]

44 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree.

 

I am surprised this is even a debate.       It's that wild to me that some are checking out on even considering a QB.   And considering is the operative word.  Not do but consider.  Sam being elevated to untouchable status which is how I perceive the point because why else would you bypass even the idea of taking a QB with a top 5 pick in a rich QB class unless you are absolutely confident that you have your franchise QB. 

 

I think the first mistake is assuming this is a rich QB class.

[KDawg]

Just now, Forehead said:

 

I think the first mistake is assuming this is a rich QB class.

Yeah, this is where I am. I don’t think it’s that great of a class. I am totally unsold on Caleb Williams. I look at Drake Maye like a taller and more athletic Howell (fairly big waste of resources) and Jayden Daniels has potential to break on contact. 
 

I’m just not sold. That’s more my view than “we have to keep Howell!” is.

We’ll see. I have some time to fully flesh this out.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Forehead said:

 

I think the first mistake is assuming this is a rich QB class.

 

elaborate please

 

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Yeah, this is where I am. I don’t think it’s that great of a class. I am totally unsold on Caleb Williams. I look at Drake Maye like a taller and more athletic Howell (fairly big waste of resources) and Jayden Daniels has potential to break on contact. 
 

I’m just not sold. That’s more my view than “we have to keep Howell!” is.

We’ll see. I have some time to fully flesh this out.

 

Caleb's tools are sick IMO.  But I haven't sat down and studied him, I feel like its a waste of time. 

 

So if Howell was taller and more athletic, you wouldn't be more jazzed about him?  I like Howell but i'd like him a lot more ironically if he was taller and more athletic.

 

Daniels to me at a minimum isn't the typical #3 QB in a draft.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

elaborate please

 

 

Caleb's tools are sick IMO.  But I haven't sat down and studied him, I feel like its a waste of time. 

 

So if Howell was taller and more athletic, you wouldn't be more jazzed about him?  I like Howell but i'd like him a lot more ironically if he was taller and more athletic.

 

Daniels to me at a minimum isn't the typical #3 QB in a draft.

Drake Maye is also less hard nosed imo and based on some reports (which is what we have access to) not as likable.

 

And certainly not over a prospect that would help our offense more rather than replacing Howell with… Howell.

 

I think he’s the guy I’d feel safest about drafting though. But I think we’d be largely in the same place we are now…

[Forehead]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

elaborate please

 

 

Well at least you edited and asked nicely.

 

Anyway, I wrote up exactly why on page 57.  You have a 20% chance at best of being right, and I think we can do a lot better things than throw a dart.  History will tell you at least two of the three QB's everyone is talking about are going to be a disappointment, with a good chance all three are. 

[KDawg]

Just to add, @Skinsinparadise, I don’t know that Williams has all the tools. He’s not big (smaller than Howell by 5 pounds and same height) and he makes some really head scratching plays along side the ridiculous ones. 
 

I also don’t love his reported attitude. If it’s untrue and he’s vetted and someone drafts him knowing that stuff isn’t true I can’t blame them. But again, I go by what we know.

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, RVAskins said:

I wouldn't say Howell is untouchable but we've ignored our OL for so long that we need to give major consideration to which OL is available. If there is a QB that they are in love with then pull the trigger but I personally don't think QB is at the top of the list as far as needs go. I totally get it that franchise QB's are hard to come by. We just can't afford to do another swing and a miss with our top pick.

 

You'd be hard pressed to find too many peiple this off season who harped more on the O line than me.  But four points.

 

A.  Find a QB with elite upside (if that's what you believe they have) is the hardest thing to find in sports.

B.  Most teams do not skip on a QB if they are picking high for another position unless they are confident they got the right QB

C. Your whole off seson isn't just about your first round pick

D.  It's not about building Rome in a day.  Give it time.  A young QB gives you 5 years.  The pressure is more intense to build it quick with Sam because he's cheap for 2 more years, that's it.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, Forehead said:

 

Well at least you edited and asked nicely.

 

Anyway, I wrote up exactly why on page 57.  You have a 20% chance at best of being right, and I think we can do a lot better things than throw a dart.  History will tell you at least two of the three QB's everyone is talking about are going to be a disappointment, with a good chance all three are. 

 

Cool though most of us know the history at QB every draft.  We lived through it, especially us regulars on the draft thread that live and dies with every draft.  I disagree with some of your conclusions but I get your point about risk.   I recall the billings well of most of those QBs and they weren't all equal.    There were specific narratives centering around those QBs and there are some patterns with them which I delved into on the QB thread but I don't have the energy to repeat here.

 

So was asking why do you think this specific draft isn't a good QB draft.  That post unless i missed your point is that its unlikely to be that good because other drafts haven't been that good.  Is that the whole point?  Of so cool but I was fishing to see if you have specfic concerns about the QBs in this draft and if so am curious as to what they are, that's all.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Drake Maye is also less hard nosed imo and based on some reports (which is what we have access to) not as likable.

 

And certainly not over a prospect that would help our offense more rather than replacing Howell with… Howell.

 

I think he’s the guy I’d feel safest about drafting though. But I think we’d be largely in the same place we are now…

 

Like I said to you in another thread, I haven't really dived in hard to Maye yet.  When watching Nesbit, I was impressed with Maye in that context.  I didn't realize for example he could run like that and his arm strength looked good.  He definitely flashed in those games.  But I'll dive in like I did for Daniels.

 

But yeah just on the surface if you sold me that this dude is Howell just taller and more athletic.  I am sold.  Becuase if I had to land an opinion for why Sam is likely a good QB but not elite would center on his size, they aren't that many that are elite.   Drew Brees.  And otherwise they are usually dudes with elite athleticism which Sam doesn't have.  

 

If you told me Sam would grow to 6 '4, and become even faster -- I'd be in the group suggesting Sam is untouchable.

 

When I hear different points from Logan Paulsen or Keim that defenses are attacking Sam by cluttering up the middle and blocking his line of vision and it was clear what the Giants in particular did -- it brings home that while height isn't the be all and end all, its not nothing either. 

[mhd24]

If we have the opportunity to draft Maye, I'm doing it.  I like Howell and think he can be a good QB, but I'm not passing on a potential elite QB in Maye for him.  We could get reasonable draft capital for Howell if that ended up being the scenario.  To end up at #2, we'd have to lose out and hope Arizona & NE win one more.

 

Regarding Daniels, I'm too scared about his size to draft him that high.  I'd trade down if a godfather offer was available assuming Maye was gone.

[Forehead]

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Cool though most of us know the history at QB every draft.  We lived through it, especially us regulars on the draft thread that live and dies with every draft.  I disagree with some of your conclusions but I get your point about risk.   I recall the billings well of most of those QBs and they weren't all equal.    There were specific narratives centering around those QBs and there are some patterns with them which I delved into on the QB thread but I don't have the energy to repeat here.

 

So was asking why do you think this specific draft isn't a good QB draft.  That post unless i missed your point is that its unlikely to be that good because other drafts haven't been that good.  Is that the whole point?  Of so cool but I was fishing to see if you have specfic concerns about the QBs in this draft and if so am curious as to what they are, that's all.

 

 

Nothing specific.  None of these guys have Trevor Lawrence type tools/pedigree and he's struggled a bit because Jacksonville hasn't put a ton of high level talent around him, though I'm aware they're doing better this season.  I still remember this board being in love with Trey Lance two years ago, talking ourselves into Haskins before that.  I definitely remember people on this board talking about how Mitch Trubisky had "it."

 

Fact is, one of the last 10 years has had the top three QB's all turn out to be consistently good, while anywhere from 5 - 7 of them (depending on how generous you want to be) have had all three of them be disappointments.  Before 2020, I think you might have to go back as far as the Eli Manning-Phillip Rivers-Ben Roethlisberger draft before you get another one where all three hit.  Do you think this is going to be the one year in ten?  I haven't watched much of the three QB's but nothing about them tells me that this is "the year."

 

San Fran has shown a good blueprint as far as I'm concerned.  Our own division is being led by two QB's who weren't first rounders.  Other teams like the Ravens and Lions are being led by QB's who are good but flawed.  I simply don't think the potential improvement over what we already have in Howell is worth the risk when our draft capital can be spent on other significant needs.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Forehead

[Est.1974]

Damn it’s going to be crushing if we win a couple of games 

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So Matt Miller just pretends the Giants are picking ahead of us

 

Let's get started. Here are my first-round projections for April's loaded draft.

1. Chicago Bears (via 1-12 CAR)

 

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

The Bears have a tough decision to make at quarterback given how well Justin Fields has played since his return from a right thumb injury a month ago. But he has been inconsistent over three seasons, and Chicago would likely take a quarterback if it lands one of the top two selections in the draft. Williams being available makes it an easier call, too.

Williams is a big play waiting to happen, with 41 total touchdowns in 2023. His game combines great arm strength, mobility, poise and field vision to make him the best overall prospect in the class and a quarterback the Bears simply cannot afford to pass on for another year of Fields. Restarting the clock at the position -- both in terms of salary and development timeline -- now is crucial with Fields' fifth-year option decision on deck.

---

2. New England Patriots (3-10)

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Much like Chicago, the Patriots need to start over at quarterback, especially because the entire organization could reset this offseason. Mac Jones' fifth-year option decision is also coming this offseason, and after he was benched for Bailey Zappe, all signs point toward a new QB1 in New England for 2024.

Maye is a powerful thrower at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, with the arm talent to stretch the field vertically and the mobility to threaten on the ground. There are times his ball placement can be inconsistent, but his supporting cast at North Carolina did him few favors there. Maye -- who is declaring for the draft -- has the traits of a true franchise quarterback.

---

3. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

I believe the Cardinals will make the right decision here to build around quarterback Kyler Murray and draft an elite receiver prospect to be his running mate, rather than make a change under center. Murray has played well since returning from a torn ACL, and the Cards have receivers Marquise Brown and Greg Dortch both on expiring deals.

Harrison is a magician at 6-foot-4 with fantastic body control and the fastest hands of any receiver in the draft class. He has the smooth and effortless route running ability -- plus the top-tier body control -- to quickly become one of the best players at the position in the NFL. He'd be the 10th receiver to ever get picked this high, per ESPN Stats & Information research.

---

4. New York Giants (5-8)

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Is this too early for Daniels, even after his brilliant Heisman-winning 2023 season? Maybe, but teams will overdraft at quarterback in an effort to find the right player, and Daniels' dual-threat ability and vertical passing traits are very intriguing. His 50 total touchdowns this season make him a first-round candidate, but it's Daniels' improvement in the pocket and the best deep ball in college football that will truly turn heads come draft time.

The Giants are invested financially in Daniel Jones, but his play simply hasn't been good enough, and New York can move on via a trade. His 38.4 QBR ranks 25th in the NFL, and his season is over with a torn ACL. Daniels' 95.7, meanwhile, leads the FBS. And sure, undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito has been a fun story, leading the Giants to three straight wins. But his QBR on the season? It's even worse than Jones' at 26.2.

5. Washington Commanders (4-9)

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

First-year starting quarterback Sam Howell has likely shown enough bright spots for the Commanders to build around him for at least one more season. But they can't keep this current offensive line intact with Howell on track to set the single-season sacks taken record (58 in 13 games).

Fashanu is a smooth-moving left tackle who has allowed one sack all season at Penn State. The 20-year-old junior is still developing, but he has Laremy Tunsil-like potential.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39084322/2024-nfl-mock-draft-round-1-predictions-32-picks

 

Matt Miller, if I recall correctly, was not one of the more respected fantasy draftniks over the years. Here he showcases not only an erroneous understanding of draft slotting, but of Daniel Jones value. Who?!?!?! is going to easily pick up the tab on that guys contract? #1 everyone already knew he sucked for the past 5 years, and #2 who in the ---- is gonna trade for a guy carrying a 36 million dollar guarantee, and a cap killing dead cap hit for the Giants that doesn't dip below 22 mill until 2026. I don't know how cap penalties work via trades, but I know enough to realize that the Jones Contract is an albatross nearly as bad as the John Wall Deal, the Beal deal, the Poole deal etc, and in some ways worse because at least those guys could play. 

 

You can't just waive away a contract that carries dead cap hits of 69 mill in '24, and 22 mill in '25. Who is stupid enough to trade for that? This isn't just moving a bad deal, this is moving a bad deal AND a bad player carrying it. This would be a much bigger version of that trade the Browns did years ago with I think the Texans to eat a bad contract. It happens all the time in the NBA, moving bad deals to crap teams for mid to late 1st rounders and/or more, but in this case I think the Giants would have to move a lot more than a 1st to offload that deal, the deal is simply a cap buster, I don't even know who could take it on to begin with, while trying to man the QB position with someone with talent. 

 

No, the Giants are screwed much like the Donkeys are with Russell Wilson (although at least Wilson rebounded a bit this year in the midseason), they are stuck with Jones. They can draft a QB if they want, but NOBODY is trading for that players contract without getting a giant pile of picks or elite young players as a part of the deal and the Giants, like us, have a talent defficient roster, that's why they're floating back and forth between slot 4 and 10ish, they suck, to the marrow, just like we do.

 

The good news for the Giants, if there is any good news, is that they suck, so dragging around that anvil of a contract shouldn't matter. Who cares? They aren't winning this year, or next year. It's what I've tried to tell Wizard fans on the realgm board who are pulling their hair out over Kuzma here, or Poole there etc, and my view is pretty simple: none of it matters. We're not contending from 2022-2025 bare minimum, probably at least through 2026 because not only is the wiz roster straight dog ----, but they stupidly failed to deal what all imploding teams do: sell off their elite talent for rebuild prospects and picks. Nope, for years we refused to trade Beal until his trade value became actively negative (despite my screaming to trade him as far back as '19), so we got nothing for our most valuable asset, nor much for our secondary and tertiary assets, which rebuilding teams typically have, AND we decided to tank just in time for the worst draft in five years, after 3 quality drafts in a row with elite talent. So essentially, the Wiz, on pace for a franchise record loss total, are liable to only incrementally improve next year because the '24 rookie class is --- supposedly. That lesson, Wizards fans are learning, the Giants fans, and hell us too, will have to learn. We can't fix this in one year, we just have to eat bad decisions and pieces while we rebuild the roster for a future without those player acquisition mistakes, and the Giants will have to do the same. The contract is a boondoggle, but the Giants weren't going to be competiting for anything anyway this year, next year or the year after. They're gonna suck for a while, might as well eat the contract, and ignore it. Build around that crater within their salary cap obligations, he just becomes a stupid QB contract they start or bench while they rebuild around him.

 

Trading him while taking a QB in this class? No Matt Miller, that's not happening, not without them making a truly destructive decision in terms of assets they'd have to tie in to that horrible contract to get another team to take it off their hands. 

[The Consigliere]

57 minutes ago, Forehead said:

 

I think the first mistake is assuming this is a rich QB class.

It is very much a rich class at the top of the class. The only classes that compare (at the time of their respective drafts) the past thirty years would be 1999, 2004, 2006, 2012, 2018, 2020, and 2021, and 2023. Not a lot. We've had an embarrassment of riches over the last six years in terms of quality QB classes coming out, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024 would all receive very nice grades. Usually classes are only 1-2 QB's deep, this one has 3, plus a few guys who apparently are going back to school, and a few more, all of whom would be higher than pretty much everyone in '22, and '19 (other than Kyler) and the horrendous '14 and '13 classes. In the first 15 years of this past decade the classes were mostly garbage coming in, 2000-2003 were all bad, 2005 was pretty weak, 2007-2011 were 0-1 QB classes, '13 and '14 were notoriously bad, '15 and '16 were also 2 guy classes. Hit or miss after drafting, going in, we've had a bunch of classes since '17 that were good or better, and hell, only 2 really crappy classes coming in in general since '15. This is an above average class for this talent rich era, we'll see how it goes in the pros, but having 3 guys and a couple of interesting options, matters, as does the fact that the talent is strong enough to push guys to go back to school for the '25 class instead. 

[YouLikeThat]

I dont think people realize how good Caleb Williams is and its really not so much of a wow you with arm strength or mobility or clockwork processing of progressions its just his ability to make plays at the most unforseen time. You WILL hate playing against this guy so everyone doubting him keep on. Playmaking wise hes the closest thing to Pat Mahomes and that goes for next year's draft that fools will be like now we know Howells not the guy lets get a qb out of the Christian Ponders or Jake Lockers who were ultimate first round bums from the get go.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

So upon closer inspection of this Cowboys / Eagles situation, it’s not as dire as I thought at first. As long as the Cowboys don’t lose two of their next three, they would still play their starters against us in the finale (as long as the NFL doesn’t schedule us as a later game with Eagles playing first).

[Daniel.redskins]

3 minutes ago, YouLikeThat said:

now we know Howells not the guy

Not many people feel that way. Howell has exceeded expectations behind the worst oline in football. 

So next year if we draft a QB and he struggles behind the worst oline, are you going to blame the QB or the oline? I have a feeling a lot of the fans will finally start blaming the oline but for some reason Howell gets the blame this year.  

We need to fix the oline this draft then look for a QB if Howell still struggles.  

[The Consigliere]

56 minutes ago, Forehead said:

 

Well at least you edited and asked nicely.

 

Anyway, I wrote up exactly why on page 57.  You have a 20% chance at best of being right, and I think we can do a lot better things than throw a dart.  History will tell you at least two of the three QB's everyone is talking about are going to be a disappointment, with a good chance all three are. 

I'd argue the data is far too erratic over time to be reliable:

Stafford, Ryan, and Cam hit as the the top of the draft kings in the late aughts, and early into last decade.

from 2012-2023:

Luck hit, RGIII missed

Winston and Mariota Missed

Wentz Missed, Goff is basically a disappointment

Trubisky missed, but Watson and Mahomes hit

Allen and Lamar hit, Baker was borderline decent, Rosen and Darnold missed.

Kyler hit, I would argue 1000% that Daniel Jones was never a top 10 guy to begin with and the Giants were insane (and I think 95% of the board agreed with that)

Burrow, Tua, and Herbert all hit

Lawrence is disappointing vs expectation, but nobody views him as a bust. Wilson, and Lance are both busts, Fields is complicated.

Young looks like a disappointment, Richardson and Stroud look like hits.

 

Suffice it to say, the 20% argument strikes me as crazy, but I think part of this is how we define guys. You have the clear and obvious hits of the past 15 years: Stafford, Ryan, Newton, Luck, Watson, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Kyler (I insert Kyler because in his first 3 seasons, before he got hurt, everyone viewed Kyler as a home run), Burrow, Herbert, Richardson and Stroud as clear home runs. 

 

Then you have guys that you could plug in at QB, and they were fine, but they did not become the All Pro's or above average at least guys expected: Those guys are like Winston, Goff, Baker, Tua (until last season), and Lawrence.

 

Then you have the outright busts, and the barely adequates: RGIII, Mariota, Trubisky, Darnold, Rosen, Wilson, Lance, probably Bryce Young, and the weirdness of Justin Fields (has raw abilities that make him really attractive, but has issues that make him someone you want to replace. The fact that league wide Fields has legit value, and that the Bears are gonna take a QB, but would probably have traded down if he was just one increment of improvement better than he has been, as a thrower.

 

To me, it's definitely not a 20% hit rate, historically speaking, people flip back and forth between about 45-55%, but that also incorporates problems of classes (guys like Jones, Haskins, and Pickett would never have been first rounders to begin with if their classes weren't total ---, thus distorting hit rate #'s), how to view the class itself (is it anyone taken in round 1, is it anyone taken top 10-12, is it just guys taken inside the top 10, should the quality of the class matter, because hit rates change sometimes due to era's should you consider that (RB's as a group endured a half a decade plus of horrible classes from 2009-2014, QB's endured a multi-decade swoon of horrible classes after horrible classes from the late eighties until 2004)?

 

The only thing I can say is that we know headed in, that this class has an above average supply of top 10 graded talents. None of these guys are Jones or Pickett, being elevated due to need, and another 2-3 guys are going back to school because of the glut of guys already covering the top 10 slots, the potential for QB's moving via trades in the offseason, and their own disappointment with their seasons and how they played out in college. 

 

It's a good class, that could've been very good. It aint 2022, 2019, 2014, 2013, it's not '18, '20-'21, or '23 either, it has the feel of '17 about it, but with the QB's having much higher grades than Watson and Mahomes had going into that draft. 

 

[RWJ]