2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Ball Security]

10 minutes ago, MrJL said:

if 7-10 is only worth the 18th pick in the draft, the last non-playoff draft pick, it's not his fault other teams are sucking super hard

I would imagine there is at least one eight win non-playoff team this season. Maybe more.

[MrJL]

22 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

I would imagine there is at least one eight win non-playoff team this season. Maybe more.

 seems likely but between tanking and QB injuries some teams coul collapse

[Koolblue13]

1. Chicago (via Carolina - 1-8)

2. New York Giants (2-8)

3. New England (2-8)

4. Arizona (2-8)

5. Chicago (3-7)

6. Green Bay (3-6)

7. Los Angeles Rams (3-6)

8. Tennessee (3-6)

9. Denver (3-5)

10. Atlanta (4-6)

11. Washington (4-6)

12. Tampa Bay (4-5)

13. New York Jets (4-5)

14. Los Angeles Chargers (4-5)

15. Indianapolis (5-5)

16. Las Vegas (5-5)

17. Buffalo (5-4)

 

A Denver would would help, but not change the position for us. Arizona, Tenn, Atl, Jets, TB, Chargers are all trending up IMO

 

I definitely think we can get in the top 10

 

N.Y. Giants Toss up, they usually win

 

Dallas we can't stop their offense and they'll definitely get to Sam

 

Miami we aren't stopping their speed and their defense should get some turnovers

 

L.A. Rams We can win this one

 

N.Y. Jets gonna be tough to score on them and we only beat teams who have QBs that can't win. Toss up, but I'd bet we lose.

 

San Francisco We are losing this game

 

Dallas They'll be fighting for the top seed in the NFC

 

I'll guess optimistically and say we go 3-4 the rest of the way as our ceiling. 

[FrFan]

On 11/1/2023 at 9:49 PM, CobraCommander said:

Just lose, baby?

Tanking is useless if you're not able to select the right players. Like the old Pirelli commercial "power is nothing without control".

It doesn't seem to me that we're on a tankathon mode, if not I hope Harris learned from the 76ers tanking draft blunders. They got 5 top 6 picks including a couple of 1st choices, resulting in 5 busts.

Edited November 13, 2023 by FrFan

[The Consigliere]

On 11/5/2023 at 5:02 PM, MrJL said:

if 7-10 is only worth the 18th pick in the draft, the last non-playoff draft pick, it's not his fault other teams are sucking super hard

Last year 7-10 landed slots 8-13 because there was an insane 6 way tie of teams w/the exact same record. The good news for us so far, is that our opponents winning percentage in our schedule is actually much worse than usual (it's usually about .515-.535), and as a result we win tie breakers with nearly any team that we might finish with an identical record to. For now anyway, if we win 3 of our final 7, we'll probably pick between 7th and 10th. We aren't picking in the 18ish zone unless we end up going 5-2 down the stretch which is borderline impossible to imagine, particularly if we have OL injuries, or if McLaurin, or anyone on that D gets hurt (they can go from crap to apocalyptically bad really quick with injuries). 

 

Looking at the remaining schedule, I tend to think we beat the Giants, and 1 or 2 of the Rams/Jets games, and then we might pick up a 4th if Dallas rests guys in the finale. The worst case scenario for slotting is probably 8-9. 

 

If we're 7-10: Slots 7-11 seems most likely.

If we're 8-9: Slots 12-16 seem most likely.

 

The low ends are less likely because of our tie breaker advantage (which will hurt our 2nd rounder). 

 

For now, I'm expecting us to pick around 8th-11th, but there are some sneaky possibilities beyond the obvious crappy teams (NYG, LA Rams, NYJets). Miami has been erratic, but we do get them with Achane back. While SF and Dallas could rest guys. The curious angle is if the Jets finally get sane, and throw in the towell on Wilson, and just roll w/some waiver wire fodder which would technically be better. Right now they basically have an active worst QB imaginable type behind center actively sabotaging them every week.

 

That, btw, is part of the reason, why, while yes, a lot of Sam's crazy numbers are just noise (total completions, yards, the non-efficiency #'s), there is a fundamental difference between a rookie/young QB who actively harms your ability to accomplish anything at all offensively:

Tommy Devito

Zach Wilson

Bryce Young

 

And a QB that can run your offense like at worst, a league average vet (say "prime era Andy Dalton" or Derrick Carr). W/Howell behind center, we can run any kind of offense we want, and expect Howell to execute like any other QB between 10th best and 20th best in the league. If you're the Jets, or the Giants right now, you're getting "worst in a decade" level performances by your guy, Panthers are pretty close to that as well. Howell has literally NEVER looked like that, even with a sieve OL which is one of the reasons we know he's a hit. It's that like Gus Frerotte thing. Gus Frerotte may not have ever been great, but he was an NFL QB that could run an offense, complete 55%, give you 200+ yards through the air, lead you on 4-5 scoring drives per game, and things would function. Heath Shuler was a Zach Wilson, it was patently obvious he couldn't do any of that. 

 

[Koolblue13]

Last year there were 13 teams with 10 or more losses. 

[The Consigliere]

21 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

1. Chicago (via Carolina - 1-8)

2. New York Giants (2-8)

3. New England (2-8)

4. Arizona (2-8)

5. Chicago (3-7)

6. Green Bay (3-6)

7. Los Angeles Rams (3-6)

8. Tennessee (3-6)

9. Denver (3-5)

10. Atlanta (4-6)

11. Washington (4-6)

12. Tampa Bay (4-5)

13. New York Jets (4-5)

14. Los Angeles Chargers (4-5)

15. Indianapolis (5-5)

16. Las Vegas (5-5)

17. Buffalo (5-4)

 

A Denver would would help, but not change the position for us. Arizona, Tenn, Atl, Jets, TB, Chargers are all trending up IMO

 

I definitely think we can get in the top 10

 

N.Y. Giants Toss up, they usually win

 

Dallas we can't stop their offense and they'll definitely get to Sam

 

Miami we aren't stopping their speed and their defense should get some turnovers

 

L.A. Rams We can win this one

 

N.Y. Jets gonna be tough to score on them and we only beat teams who have QBs that can't win. Toss up, but I'd bet we lose.

 

San Francisco We are losing this game

 

Dallas They'll be fighting for the top seed in the NFC

 

I'll guess optimistically and say we go 3-4 the rest of the way as our ceiling. 

 

I wish you were right. My problem is, periodically Miami ----'s their pants. The good news is Achane will be healthy. So its probably a loss, but we could win that, in the same way we nearly beat the Eagles in both games. Miami's D is not as good as they had hoped going in, and their O can be messy because of Tua.

 

The Jets problem is the QB, as we all know, if they had even the 20th-25th best QB in the league, they would win that game, but they have like the 120th best QB in the league, a guy whose an active -21 points on game day just via three and outs and turnovers. We should lose that, but unless they change their QB, I'm betting we win that. As for Dallas, I am distinctly worried Philly will have a 2-3 game division lead/crown in the bag, in which case the only reason Dallas has to care is if really care about their seed based match up which seems unlikely (other than to avoid SF and Detroit). 

 

So to me, technically, we have only 3 games we should win (Giants, Rams, Jets) but we could beat Dallas too if they sit guys. So I think it's reasonable to imagine we finish somewhere between 6-11 best case and 8-9 worst, a lot of potential volatility there. If they had switched the Dallas and say, Giants or rams games in the schedule, we would definitely be a 7 win max team to me unless something goes weird with Miami, but with Dallas last, I fear we win 7 or 8 for sure :(. 

8 minutes ago, FrFan said:

Tanking is useless if you're not able to select the right players. Like the old Pirelli commercial "power is nothing without control".

It doesn't seem to me that we're on a tankathon mode, if not I hope Harris learned from the 76ers tanking draft blunders. They got 5 top 6 picks including a couple of 1st choices, resulting in 5 busts.

Tanking will get our slotting higher and get the horrible FO and coaching staff ---- canned which is what we want. Slotting matters. 

5 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Last year there were 13 teams with 10 or more losses. 

I think 6 or 7 teams that finished 7-10 which was insane. 

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I wish you were right. My problem is, periodically Miami ----'s their pants. The good news is Achane will be healthy. So its probably a loss, but we could win that, in the same way we nearly beat the Eagles in both games. Miami's D is not as good as they had hoped going in, and their O can be messy because of Tua.

 

The Jets problem is the QB, as we all know, if they had even the 20th-25th best QB in the league, they would win that game, but they have like the 120th best QB in the league, a guy whose an active -21 points on game day just via three and outs and turnovers. We should lose that, but unless they change their QB, I'm betting we win that. As for Dallas, I am distinctly worried Philly will have a 2-3 game division lead/crown in the bag, in which case the only reason Dallas has to care is if really care about their seed based match up which seems unlikely (other than to avoid SF and Detroit). 

 

So to me, technically, we have only 3 games we should win (Giants, Rams, Jets) but we could beat Dallas too if they sit guys. So I think it's reasonable to imagine we finish somewhere between 6-11 best case and 8-9 worst, a lot of potential volatility there. If they had switched the Dallas and say, Giants or rams games in the schedule, we would definitely be a 7 win max team to me unless something goes weird with Miami, but with Dallas last, I fear we win 7 or 8 for sure :(. 

Tanking will get our slotting higher and get the horrible FO and coaching staff ---- canned which is what we want. Slotting matters. 

I think 6 or 7 teams that finished 7-10 which was insane. 

I think the Rams and maybe the Giants are our only two wins left this season. We play a lot of teams that are going to the playoffs, some with real chances of getting to the SB.

 

Jets are no joke. All this team has is our QB and............

[ntotoro]

Every time I look at Robert Saleh the last few weeks, his beard is so perfect it looks like it was painted on with a template and some spray-on hair. I mean... I'm Lebanese, too, but somehow the perfect beard gene skipped me.

[Rufus T Firefly]

 

[method man]

56 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

 

 

Let's hope Tyrod can come back soon and grab the Giants another win or two

[PlayAction]

The team needs at OL, TE, and now DE line up perfectly with last year's draft.  A GM who can actually plan long-term will avoid these issues.  On the bright side, that Chicago pick is looking better and better.  A trade down from the 1st or trade down from one of the two 2nd round picks should give the GM more pick(s) in the top 100.  We are going to need it - with better talent evaluation too, of course.  

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I think the Rams and maybe the Giants are our only two wins left this season. We play a lot of teams that are going to the playoffs, some with real chances of getting to the SB.

 

Jets are no joke. All this team has is our QB and............

 

The problem is Zach Wilson. Lets be straight, if the Jets had Sam Howell instead of Zach Wilson, they'd probably be 7-2 right now. But they have Zach Wilson, whose probably actively capable of doubling the Jets loss total this year, possibly worse, by being the QB instead of a league average one, and probably triple the losses of what they'd have had if Rodgers hadn't gotten hurt on that first series. 

 

So yeah, we could beat the Jets, or we could be like Aiden Connell, and rely on Zach Wilson to destroy his own teams chances entirely. 

[srtman04]

1 minute ago, The Consigliere said:

 

The problem is Zach Wilson. Lets be straight, if the Jets had Sam Howell instead of Zach Wilson, they'd probably be 7-2 right now. But they have Zach Wilson, whose probably actively capable of doubling the Jets loss total this year, possibly worse, by being the QB instead of a league average one, and probably triple the losses of what they'd have had if Rodgers hadn't gotten hurt on that first series. 

 

So yeah, we could beat the Jets, or we could be like Aiden Connell, and rely on Zach Wilson to destroy his own teams chances entirely. 

 

Even Zach WIlson could  probably carve up our defense like a Thanksgiving day Turkey.    We are that bad on defense!  

[NoVaSkins21]

Draft position for the next regime and Sam's progression are the only reason to keep watching games for the rest of the season

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, ntotoro said:

Every time I look at Robert Saleh the last few weeks, his beard is so perfect it looks like it was painted on with a template and some spray-on hair. I mean... I'm Lebanese, too, but somehow the perfect beard gene skipped me.

It probably starts with him being shaved/cut by the same guy who handles the players. The USMNT has a guy they literally fly in for some of the kids for freaking FIFA International windows, it's nuts. 

 

I go back to George Michael "Faith" era. That was absurd, so perfectly coifed it was unbelievable. Meanwhile my shaver runs out of juice right before I head out to some hella expensive theater gig my wife got tickets for over the weekend, so I'm making do with a mini bottle of shaving cream and an old razor and hoping for the best. Yikes. 

[ExoDus84]

13 minutes ago, method man said:

 

Let's hope Tyrod can come back soon and grab the Giants another win or two

 

Looking at our defense this whole season, I have faith that some bloke named Tommy DeVito can give us another hard-earned L.

[The Consigliere]

1 minute ago, srtman04 said:

 

Even Zach WIlson could  probably carve up our defense like a Thanksgiving day Turkey.    We are that bad on defense!  

Im skeptical. He couldn't do it to the raiders, he's basically god awful nearly always. But who knows, it would help us, I'd 100% take it. I want that pick inside the top 10 so we can lock in a top 7-8 non-QB unless we trade up for one (which at this point seems almost a lock not to happen). 

[skinsfan66]

5 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

1. Chicago (via Carolina - 1-8)

2. New York Giants (2-8)

3. New England (2-8)

4. Arizona (2-8)

5. Chicago (3-7)

6. Green Bay (3-6)

7. Los Angeles Rams (3-6)

8. Tennessee (3-6)

9. Denver (3-5)

10. Atlanta (4-6)

11. Washington (4-6)

12. Tampa Bay (4-5)

13. New York Jets (4-5)

14. Los Angeles Chargers (4-5)

15. Indianapolis (5-5)

16. Las Vegas (5-5)

17. Buffalo (5-4)

 

A Denver would would help, but not change the position for us. Arizona, Tenn, Atl, Jets, TB, Chargers are all trending up IMO

 

I definitely think we can get in the top 10

 

N.Y. Giants Toss up, they usually win

 

Dallas we can't stop their offense and they'll definitely get to Sam

 

Miami we aren't stopping their speed and their defense should get some turnovers

 

L.A. Rams We can win this one

 

N.Y. Jets gonna be tough to score on them and we only beat teams who have QBs that can't win. Toss up, but I'd bet we lose.

 

San Francisco We are losing this game

 

Dallas They'll be fighting for the top seed in the NFC

 

I'll guess optimistically and say we go 3-4 the rest of the way as our ceiling. 

We should win most tiebreakers with the strength of our schedule, later on unless 2 Dallas, SF, Miami, 2 Philly. s

flop the second half.

[The Consigliere]

Yep, and that is huge news. Last year if you were 7-10 after the season concluded, you could pick as high as 8th, or as low as 13th, and it entirely turned on opponent winning percentage on your schedule. The vast bulk of the teams w/even worse opp winning percentages than us are likely to pick way ahead of us or way after, their might be 1 or 2 that are close, but it's not a giant batch like we saw last year. Last year basically if you turned 1 win into a loss and 1 tie into a loss, our pick would have jumped halfway up the draft board. just 2 results, slightly different in a 17 game schedule and we pick top 8 instead of 16th. 

 

A lot rides on that home game against Miami, how much zach sucks against us in December, and whether or not the Cowboys decide to rest guys in the season finale, the difference that can and likely will turn on all that (and even a roadie to LA) is the difference between a top 5 pick, and probably picking as low as 13-15. I tend to split the difference and assume we'll pick between about 8 and 11. If everything went right, we could be as high as 5 or 6, if nothing goes right, the pick will be as low as 15-18 but more likely 12-15. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

51 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

We should win most tiebreakers with the strength of our schedule, later on unless 2 Dallas, SF, Miami, 2 Philly. s

flop the second half.

You know them "flopping" would help us in those tiebreakers, right?

[Tyler Spiers]

7 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

1. Chicago (via Carolina - 1-8)

2. New York Giants (2-8)

3. New England (2-8)

4. Arizona (2-8)

5. Chicago (3-7)

6. Green Bay (3-6)

7. Los Angeles Rams (3-6)

8. Tennessee (3-6)

9. Denver (3-5)

10. Atlanta (4-6)

11. Washington (4-6)

12. Tampa Bay (4-5)

13. New York Jets (4-5)

14. Los Angeles Chargers (4-5)

15. Indianapolis (5-5)

16. Las Vegas (5-5)

17. Buffalo (5-4)

 

A Denver would would help, but not change the position for us. Arizona, Tenn, Atl, Jets, TB, Chargers are all trending up IMO

 

I definitely think we can get in the top 10

 

N.Y. Giants Toss up, they usually win

 

Dallas we can't stop their offense and they'll definitely get to Sam

 

Miami we aren't stopping their speed and their defense should get some turnovers

 

L.A. Rams We can win this one

 

N.Y. Jets gonna be tough to score on them and we only beat teams who have QBs that can't win. Toss up, but I'd bet we lose.

 

San Francisco We are losing this game

 

Dallas They'll be fighting for the top seed in the NFC

 

I'll guess optimistically and say we go 3-4 the rest of the way as our ceiling. 

I'm a bit more optimistic:

 

Giants (Win) (5-6)

Dallas (Loss) (5-7)

Miami (Loss) (5-8)

Rams (Win) (6-8)

Jets (Win) (7-8)

San Fran (Win) (8-8)

Dallas (Win) (9 - 😎

 

We win last 4 to make playoffs as 7th seed, save Ron's butt and give Sam the opportunity to run the table Brady style, hopefully culminating us in getting the 32nd and 33rd picks.

 

The last part is a joke but I do believe we go 9-8 and make the playoffs.

[RVAskins]

29 minutes ago, Tyler Spiers said:

The last part is a joke but I do believe we go 9-8 and make the playoffs.

[Koolblue13]

56 minutes ago, Tyler Spiers said:

I'm a bit more optimistic:

 

Giants (Win) (5-6)

Dallas (Loss) (5-7)

Miami (Loss) (5-8)

Rams (Win) (6-8)

Jets (Win) (7-8)

San Fran (Win) (8-8)

Dallas (Win) (9 - 😎

 

We win last 4 to make playoffs as 7th seed, save Ron's butt and give Sam the opportunity to run the table Brady style, hopefully culminating us in getting the 32nd and 33rd picks.

 

The last part is a joke but I do believe we go 9-8 and make the playoffs.

Drugs.

[Tyler Spiers]

20 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Drugs.

Only Mary Jane but we've done it before with much less talent at QB.