The 2023 Draft - Hindsight Picks

[Going Commando]

52 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

PICK NO. 27: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: OT ANTON HARRISON

Overall Rookie Grade: 46.2 (Rank: 4/4)
Principal Opponent: George Karlaftis/Chris Jones
Week 2 Snaps: 66
Week 2 Grade: 45.7

Harrison was the primary victim of Chris Jones’ return in Week 2. Harrison faced Jones in pass protection 13 times and allowed two sacks and a hurry with another four lost reps, including one that led to a batted pass. This was arguably the biggest mismatch in the NFL this week, as Harrison posted an ugly 29.6 pass-blocking grade. There will be better days ahead for the rookie, but this will be a matchup to watch if the Jaguars see Kansas City again in the postseason.

 

I was watching this game and the RT play for both teams was brutal.  Major points of failure.  I liked Harrison, but man, that would not have been a good pick at 16.  I thought he was going to be a clear upgrade over Jawaan Taylor, but it looks like there might not be any winners in the way that situation played out for KC and Jacksonville.  And watching that game reinforced for me that you guys are way too low on Wylie.  He is not bad, and our protection as a whole has not been bad.  Believe me, it could be so much worse.

 

My favorite first round player, and the guy I would have picked at 16 as a pure BPA choice after Dawand Jones's stock collapsed was Bresee.  He's actually the guy I picked for Jacksonville in the ES mock.  He's already pretty good and he's probably going to be really good by the end of the season, if he can stay healthy.  But I am not sure where he would have fit in on our DL.  Probably would have necessitated the loss of Chase Young.  Right now I like the outcome of picking Forbes better.

[mhd24]

15 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I was watching this game and the RT play for both teams was brutal.  Major points of failure.  I liked Harrison, but man, that would not have been a good pick at 16.  I thought he was going to be a clear upgrade over Jawaan Taylor, but it looks like there might not be any winners in the way that situation played out for KC and Jacksonville.  And watching that game reinforced for me that you guys are way too low on Wylie.  He is not bad, and our protection as a whole has not been bad.  Believe me, it could be so much worse.

 

My favorite first round player, and the guy I would have picked at 16 as a pure BPA choice after Dawand Jones's stock collapsed was Bresee.  He's actually the guy I picked for Jacksonville in the ES mock.  He's already pretty good and he's probably going to be really good by the end of the season, if he can stay healthy.  But I am not sure where he would have fit in on our DL.  Probably would have necessitated the loss of Chase Young.  Right now I like the outcome of picking Forbes better.

Yup.  CB was the logical position to go after the OL we liked (Paris Johnson, Wright, Skoronski) were all gone.  I don't think we were ever high on Broderick Jones.  He can't even start for Pittsburgh.  You were so right that this past OL class was really weak.  I know we liked LVN as he would have been a straight BPA pick.  I think just taking BPA for the most part is how one build a team.  You can't force picks.  Everyone in the national media was killing Atlanta for taking Bijan, but he was straight the best player in the draft last year on a pound-2-pound basis.  Now, I get why taking QB for the top teams and I would have done the same, but as a talent, Bijan might be the best RB in football right now.  That's why I loved him this past draft.  We are lucky Philly didn't have a chance to take him.   

[Skinsinparadise]

33 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I was watching this game and the RT play for both teams was brutal.  Major points of failure.  I liked Harrison, but man, that would not have been a good pick at 16.  I thought he was going to be a clear upgrade over Jawaan Taylor, but it looks like there might not be any winners in the way that situation played out for KC and Jacksonville.  And watching that game reinforced for me that you guys are way too low on Wylie.  He is not bad, and our protection as a whole has not been bad.  Believe me, it could be so much worse.

 

 

2 games is tough to make global takes on any player IMO, especially rookie O lineman and CBs.   Like you, I liked Harrison among a bunch of players.  Harrison seemed like a late first-2nd round type as the process got deeper to the end. 

 

I couldn't disagree more about Wylie.  I think its a bad signing.  I give it a D plus at best.  If they gave him really low money like Minny gave Risner, I wouldn't dislike it the same way.  IMO he's an above average guard, below average tackle.   He's not an 8 million a year IMO tackle.  I am not saying that's a lot of money for a decent RT.  But he's not IMO a decent tackle.  But will see.  I hope you are right about him,  Heck just like all these guys, I'll give him more than 2 games to put in any final verdict. 

 

I had Dawand Jones as my #1 tackle just like you did until all the character stuff started coming out.  But if feels now like that character stuff might have been overblown.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

49 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Yup.  CB was the logical position to go after the OL we liked (Paris Johnson, Wright, Skoronski) were all gone.  I don't think we were ever high on Broderick Jones.  He can't even start for Pittsburgh.  You were so right that this past OL class was really weak.  I know we liked LVN as he would have been a straight BPA pick.  I think just taking BPA for the most part is how one build a team.  You can't force picks.  Everyone in the national media was killing Atlanta for taking Bijan, but he was straight the best player in the draft last year on a pound-2-pound basis.  Now, I get why taking QB for the top teams and I would have done the same, but as a talent, Bijan might be the best RB in football right now.  That's why I loved him this past draft.  We are lucky Philly didn't have a chance to take him.   

 

I get the vibe listenting to Keim predraft that they thought either Wright would be there in the first at their pick and or Avila or Bergeron (the Bergeron part might have been from another beat guy, I can't recall) in the 2nd.

 

I think 95% of the people who talk the draft on the draft thread, certainly me included, are hardcore BPA people.  The problem I know some of us have with their approach is this isn't a BPA driven FO ironically.  Just because they didn't take an O lineman and took CBs didn't feel very BPA to me when Keim said on day one look tackle or CB.  Those are the positions they are zeroing in on.  And on the 2nd day he said O lineman or slot-Buffalo nickle type.  On and on they worked a menu in each round and Keim nailed it in advance.   

 

We usually have an idea of who this team is going to take in advance.  2 years before it was LB, LB, LB.  That's why it was easy for me to guess Jamin would be their pick because its simple power of deduction.  He was likely going to be the most pedigreed LB left standing at 19.  The previous year, we knew they were obsessive about getting a WR.  We talked about it to death on the draft thread.

 

Ron is about as BPA driven as @Koolblue13 is a proud card carrying member of the Heinicke Hive.    He's primarily a need based drafter.  The idea that this time he opened up because he actually had 2 need spots he choose from in the first two rounds  -- is still not a BPA approach but granted its not as extreme as he typically is as to drafting need.

 

Again, don't get me wrong.  I think Rivera is decent as his job.  He's not an idiot.  I like more things he does than I dislike them.  I think Tim Gribble is clearly a good evaluator.  Not great but certainly good.   But overall, Rivera has some flaws.  I don't think he's even close to being great at what he does.  He does a decent job, nothing great IMO. 

 

And I 100% reject the premise anytime Ron is defended (I am not saying that's what you are doing here) by saying people are upset because Ron went BPA versus need.  Ron is one of the most need based GMs I can recall in all of my years observing the draft.     

 

Before the draft, each round I put down the need list as for how they are scoping things out (based on Keim's tweets and podcasts) and they went by that list like a religion.  The only slight departure was they doubled down on a 2nd edge rusher in the 7th versus a LB.  But ironically they were clearly super close to going with a LB still -- in one of the post draft segments the team put out, you can see Del Rio and Rivera decide between Soelle (a LB) and Andre Jones.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[CTskin]

Who knows what the ceiling is for Forbes, I love the kid, but Gonzalez was the pick there (assuming I’m not comprehending a scheme fit). Gonzalez is already showing legit lockdownability.

 

Quan Martin is obviously the hot debate. Reading the tea leaves, it felt like we forced the pick because cam kurl and his people made it clear they knew his value and it’d cost us to work out a LTD. And if that’s not it then it was a luxury pick. Maybe he pans out, but it still wasn’t the right way to go giving out glaring holes.

 

cheeseman. I know it wasn’t this year but I can’t comprehend how we used a draft pick on this bum. When you have the easiest/simplest job in all of sports, how can u be so bad. And how bad was our scouting to make this a draft pick.

[dswerdlw]

For Cleveland, Dawand Jones is playing better than a mid-4th round pick (a few picks before we selected Daniels). I'm guessing some think we should have picked Jones over Stromberg, but I wonder if Jones would have fit in our system. Is he athletic enough to be successful in EB's offense? After Steen was taken at the top of the 3rd round, I don't think there was an OT left, other than Jones, who was remotely capable of starting this year.  After all the solid OTs were taken, I had wanted us to use or 2nd round pick to take an interior lineman (JMS), linebacker (Drew Sanders), or tight end (Darnell Washington). I hope Martin works out, but, like most, I see him as a luxury pick that we really couldn't afford.

 

I should also say that the 2021 and 2022 drafts are aging exceptionally well. I hope that the 2023 draft does the same, but I have my doubts. I think Forbes may be the only highlight.

Edited September 20, 2023 by dswerdlw

[Koolblue13]

We suck at 2nd round picks.

[Warhead36]

I can't blame the FO for not taking Dawand Jones. Guy was a complete flake during the meeting/interview process and blew many teams, including ours, off. He was undraftable. 

[DWinzit]

7 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I can't blame the FO for not taking Dawand Jones. Guy was a complete flake during the meeting/interview process and blew many teams, including ours, off. He was undraftable. 

Appears teams agreed. At some point, I'd guess top of the third, some teams began to second guessing that. Still amazing he slid till the 4th. He would have been a nice fit in Washington and many other teams would have loved grabbing him earlier. He cost himself a lot of money being a douche. That may come back out and make Cleveland look bad for taking him. 

 

 

 

7 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

We suck at 2nd round picks.

The draft never really fell good for us. 

I had a big list of guys I really liked for us in the 2nd round, they all went ahead of our pick. Many of the rounds felt similar. 

[Skinsinparadise]

The thing is for me if there was a team desperate enough to roll the dice on an O lineman it should have been this team, not the Browns who already had a good O line.  Different narrative but L. Collins was a risk years back and the Cowboys took him.

 

The issue with this FO is they have had a series of bad decisions and misses at the O line.  We talk about Cheeseman.  Heck they didn't take Trey Smith who was picked after him in the 6th round.  Too risky for them.  They trade two picks to get their man Cheesman.

 

Like I've said Ron's dismantiling of one of the best O lines in the league was a series of decisions.  Yes I'd have taken Mauch over Marttin and said so at the time.  But that's only one in a series of mistakes from Ron IMO at that spot. 

 

1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

 

The draft never really fell good for us. 

I had a big list of guys I really liked for us in the 2nd round, they all went ahead of our pick. Many of the rounds felt similar. 

 

Looks like one starter for 2023.  And that's a luxury Ron can't afford where this is a punt to the 2024 season draft.  But will see. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The thing is for me if there was a team desperate enough to roll the dice on an O lineman it should have been this team, not the Browns who already had a good O line.  Different narrative but L. Collins was a risk years back and the Cowboys took him.

 

The issue with this FO is they have had a series of bad decisions and misses at the O line.  We talk about Cheeseman.  Heck they didn't take Trey Smith who was picked after him in the 6th round.  Too risky for them.  They trade two picks to get their man Cheesman.

 

Like I've said Ron's dismantiling of one of the best O lines in the league was a series of decisions.  Yes I'd have taken Mauch over Marttin and said so at the time.  But that's only one in a series of mistakes from Ron at that spot. 

 

 

Looks like one starter for 2023.  And that's a luxury Ron can't afford where this is a punt to 2024 draft.  But will see. 

This draft felt panicked. Especially on day 3. Daniels, moving up for Henry, after that it seemed like the rug was pulled out. We needed OL and pass rush/LB. If we went Mauch, Strom, Herbig it would have made more sense. Why they didn't take flyers on Pace or Ricks, two players at positions of need, I don't understand either. Same with QB. I get that we put our faith in Sam and had a legit back up, but zero developmental QBs? 

 

I'm very happy that this is RonMarts last draft.

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

This draft felt panicked. Especially on day 3. Daniels, moving up for Henry, after that it seemed like the rug was pulled out. We needed OL and pass rush/LB. If we went Mauch, Strom, Herbig it would have made more sense. Why they didn't take flyers on Pace or Ricks, two players at positions of need, I don't understand either. Same with QB. I get that we put our faith in Sam and had a legit back up, but zero developmental QBs? 

 

I'm very happy that this is RonMarts last draft.

 

I think they were shocked that they didn't get an O lineman in the first two rounds.  They clearly had the tact of O lineman or corner or slot corner in the first two rounds.  They stuck to it.  But they clearly expected 1 of those 2 picks to be an O lineman.    Mayhew lamenting not trading up after the draft to me revealed they had some angst after the fact.

 

Just blowing off UDFA is frustrating as to chasing pedigreed names.  Remember the draft where they were the only team to just sign one UDFA?  Pace was a gift staring them in the face.   They supposedly had their eyes on fast backs.  Keaton Mitchell was starring at them in UDFA.  I am not really hung up on one player in UDFA but other teams including the Eagles are so much more aggressive using that as a tool.

 

The Ron Rivera arguments often turn binary.  But to me its not binary at all.  Ron isn't stupid.  He's made some good calls.  I've applauded some of the moves.  He creates a good floor where his teams don't suck.  Ron has some good attributes.

 

But IMO he doesn't have much imagination.  He doesn't take enough chances.  He doesn't do aggressive.  He's not dumb.  But the other FOs in this division are IMO smarter than him.  Or to say it more simply Ron puts a ceiling on this team.  Our best players are arguably ones that were taken before he got here.  I don't think its an accident anymore that he's had just 3 winning seasons in 12.

 

What other team in the NFL would want Ron running their FO?  Not because he's awful.  But you want a high ceiling from your FO not a high floor. 

 

The kicker for me about it is if you want to give a young QB the best chance to succeed this year.  Act on it.  Give him a good O line.  And in arguably an historic deep draft for TE, take one.  So now we might be down Logan Thomas for awhile.  Shocking.  The TE which is an injury prone spot with every guy on this roster missing time last year for injury -- and 2 of those TEs they were counting on were unproven.   So how about taking one?

 

I can't wait to see what Howell can do when he has a FO that helps him. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Also one of my favorite players ironically I took him for the Dolphins in the boards mock draft 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Mallory was on my guys, top 20 list.  I also took him on the board's mock draft and took some grief for taking him in the 6th round. 

 

But thankfully we traded up for KJ Henry instead and took Daniels in the 4th. Both players are just killing it for this team this season.   

 

And heck we don't really need any depth at TE.  The depth hasn't been tested at all. .    

 

 

 

[Warhead36]

Imagine if we took Gonzalez in the 1st and either Mauch or JMS in the 2nd.....

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Imagine if we took Gonzalez in the 1st and either Mauch or JMS in the 2nd.....

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Also available at our pick in the 2nd

 

 

[Warhead36]

Not that we had any chance at him, but I will say even though it’s early Im feeling a bit vindicated as I think I was the only person who rated Stroud over Young. Dude looks legit.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

On 9/27/2023 at 7:27 AM, Warhead36 said:

Not that we had any chance at him, but I will say even though it’s early Im feeling a bit vindicated as I think I was the only person who rated Stroud over Young. Dude looks legit.

 

Stroud has been killing it so far.

[Skinsinparadise]

DJ Turner, also was on my guys like, my top favorite 20 players that I posed before the draft.  i don't mean this arrogantly, i am an amateur at this.  This is meant purely as a shot to this FO.  I'd stack my players from this draft over who they drafted. 

 

 

[Rex Tomb]

This discussion makes me so sad… how did Ron screw it up so badly?  Looking like Forbes is a major project and may be good down the road, but so far he has been learning on the job and far from complete.  And don’t even get me started in Quan Martin, our second round pick has yet to take a single snap. And we could have added Cody Mauch to help bolster our offensive line.  Rivera is so full of himself it makes me want to scream.

[skinsfan66]

Witherspoon and his game last night against the Giants, pick six and all puts him on pace with anybody for Rookie of the year, he was the difference maker. 

[Stihl89]

15 minutes ago, Rex Tomb said:

This discussion makes me so sad… how did Ron screw it up so badly?  Looking like Forbes is a major project and may be good down the road, but so far he has been learning on the job and far from complete.  And don’t even get me started in Quan Martin, our second round pick has yet to take a single snap. And we could have added Cody Mauch to help bolster our offensive line.  Rivera is so full of himself it makes me want to scream.

Ultimately I think the plan is to be playoff contender and hope for the best beyond that. It’s certainly less risky than swinging for the fences with high end rookie and trade up. Certainly a lower ceiling team. Maybe he was just planning to stick around as long as possible and maybe luck into a QB falling to within strike distance when people don’t expect you to look at QB similar to no one expected the Chiefs to trade up for Pat 

[Going Commando]

41 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Witherspoon and his game last night against the Giants, pick six and all puts him on pace with anybody for Rookie of the year, he was the difference maker. 

 

He was about as dominant as a corner can possibly be.  Two sacks, nine tackles, some of them big time plays in the open field at the LoS, and a pick six.  That was one of the best games I've ever seen a rookie corner have, and it struck me how much better their defensive coaching is than ours.  I know he's better than Forbes period, but when you've got two players drafted near each other at the beginning of their careers, and one guy looks like an All Pro out of the box and the other looks like he's about to get benched, coaching is the difference.

 

It's not just Forbes I'm concerned with either.  Martin has struggled too, and Forrest and Butler have both regressed big time.