The 2023 Draft - Hindsight Picks

[Koolblue13]

26 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

That tweet about Banks being better than Spoon in a bunch of stats is a nice case demonstrating how stats can be used to tell lies.  Anyone who has watched Banks get his ass beat this year and also watched Spoon individually dominate games can readily see that Banks hasn't even been on the same planet as Spoon.  Spoon is already the best player on a good defense and one of the best corners in the league, and if he continues playing the way he has so far, then he's going to make an All Pro team.

[woodpecker]

Well, we all know hindsight is 50-50, but I’m not sure how much hindsite is happening here. Three years in a row he reached with his first round pick for second round talent. And it wasn’t just us fans saying it, the experts all agreed. My hindsight is this… Ron hitting on a couple late round picks the first year turned out to be the worst thing that could happen. Made him think he knows what he’s doing. Reminds me of when Snyder hit on Larry Centers with his first attempt at playing GM.

 

edit: I guess you could say Dotson was first round talent. But late first round, and was still considered a reach where we took him.

Edited October 28, 2023 by woodpecker

[method man]

5 hours ago, woodpecker said:

Well, we all know hindsight is 50-50, but I’m not sure how much hindsite is happening here. Three years in a row he reached with his first round pick for second round talent. And it wasn’t just us fans saying it, the experts all agreed. My hindsight is this… Ron hitting on a couple late round picks the first year turned out to be the worst thing that could happen. Made him think he knows what he’s doing. Reminds me of when Snyder hit on Larry Centers with his first attempt at playing GM.

 

edit: I guess you could say Dotson was first round talent. But late first round, and was still considered a reach where we took him.

You’ve gotta wonder how much Ron influenced late round picks. It is a shame, for example, that Mayock gets so much flak for his draft record in Vegas when Gruden apparently took over Day 1 and 2 and then let Mayock do his thing Day 3 where he found guys like Crosby and Renfrow

[RandyHolt]

I wish we could trade Forbes Quan and Strom and recoup those picks to use next year... I wonder how much those 3 would fetch right now.  Dare I think we tanked their value somehow enormously.

[DWinzit]

9 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

I wish we could trade Forbes Quan and Strom and recoup those picks to use next year... I wonder how much those 3 would fetch right now.  Dare I think we tanked their value somehow enormously.

Sure is frustrating from where we sit today.

 

It would be a squandering of resources to trade them now, we'd get pennies on the dollar. All three still have the potential be starters, it is just a matter of them being coached up and placed in the situations that suit them the best.

 

I worry more about about Forbes than the other two. Strom will minimally be a good backup C and G but will at least get a shot at starting C. Quan and Forbes should minimally be decent nickels. The issue there is that at 1st and 2nd rounders, they need to be starters.

[Going Commando]

Remember when Bob McGinn told us that CJ Stroud was too stupid to play in the NFL because of a video game test?

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Remember when Bob McGinn told us that CJ Stroud was too stupid to play in the NFL because of a video game test?

I think I was the only person on this board that had Stroud over Young. I do feel a bit vindicated by that, although I didn't think Stroud would be this good this fast.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I think I was the only person on this board that had Stroud over Young. I do feel a bit vindicated by that, although I didn't think Stroud would be this good this fast.

 

I liked Bryce Young better, but I liked Stroud.  I liked Levis too, and he looks like a stud as well.  Blue chip talent is blue chip talent, and people let silly, gossipy nonsense cause them to lose sight of that too often.  Don't let it happen with Caleb Williams or Drake Maye this year.  Guys like Bob McGinn are gossip mongers, whose "info" is worse than useless, it's actually harmful to the process of decent evaluation.  So are the cavalcade of Twitter wannabe reporters citing their "sources" to spread their gossip and leading to dumb narratives and awful takes.  You will have way better takes if you simply do nothing other than watch games and cut ups.

 

I want to see what the Lions eventually do with Hendon Hooker too.  Never really made sense for them to draft him, but that guy was a legit peer to Levis and Young and Stroud the previous two years.  If he's as good as them, that's too much talent to have languishing on your bench.  If I'm a team like Atlanta, I'd have been calling about his availability.  Then again, Atlanta is probably headed for a coaching change this winter, and they'll be starting from scratch.  He's a pretty obvious fit for the Giants too.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Remember when Bob McGinn told us that CJ Stroud was too stupid to play in the NFL because of a video game test?

 

It's just about never Bob McGinn telling us anything, he has personnel guys from around the league and they for whatever reasons seem to have divergent opinions of every player.   He's quoting others.  And those quotes are you know rarely have a consensus thought.  They are all over the place typically especially about QBs.

 

So one guy will say so so and so sucks and another will say he's great.   People can cherry pick either opinion and make McGinn own it but its an odd thing to do.  For starters, its not McGinn's personal opinon.  the 2nd part of it the national media will cling to the more sensational criticism versus the positive takes.

 

But his top 100s which again aren't really his but the accumulation of the personnel guys tend to beat the consensus mock draft every year.  So for its faults it still trumps the Kipers, McShays, DJ, etc.

 

Looks like for Stroud in spite of I gather 2 personnel guys harping on the S2 test, Purdy killed it on it so I gather that elevated that test in the eyes of some, the scouts picked Stroud as the 2nd best in the class.  And actually picked Levis third.  Most mock drafters picked Richardson and some even Hooker over Levis.

 

But don't get me wrong.  No one.  Not you.  Not me.  Not any fan.  Not any personnel guy is good at picking franchise QBs.  Its hard.  Arians talks a lot in his book about why its hard -- short version of it is you need to have the QB in your buildiing and see the QB's processing ability and work ethic up close to really know.  Shanny and Gibbs have talked about the same thing.  

 

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I think I was the only person on this board that had Stroud over Young. I do feel a bit vindicated by that, although I didn't think Stroud would be this good this fast.

 

I didn't really care enough to watch or talk much about that QB class.  I did think Stroud killed it in his last game.  But I never sat down to do apples to apples comparisons.  I actually I watched some the 5th-7th round types because I considered that a possibility here.

 

I am leaning towards not watching this next group that closely either if Howell keeps playing like this.  I am very Washington centric in what I watch.

 

But nice job, picking Stroud.  Most thought Bryce was better.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

We could have had Mtichell for nothing.  UDFA.  Speed back that would have been perfect to round out this RB room. 

 

 

 

[KDawg]

7 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I think I was the only person on this board that had Stroud over Young. I do feel a bit vindicated by that, although I didn't think Stroud would be this good this fast.

Officially? Yes. I was very concerned with Young’s size, though, and towards the end of the cycle I was leaning more towards Stroud. 
 

But I was hesitant to move Young because of his play making ability. So you’re not wrong here at all.

[philibusters]

I had Bryce Young by a comfortable amount over the others.  I didn't see it as that close.  I had Stroud second, Levis third, Richardson fourth.  I definitely did not realize Stroud had the pocket presence and anticipation that he has shown.  That is the thing about playing at Ohio St on easy mode.  It can hide deficiencies, but it can also hide some positive traits.  Playing with Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith Njiba, Marvin Harrison, and Emeka Egbuka--guys got open quick.  He had open guys and didn't have to throw with a ton of anticipation.

[method man]

On 10/28/2023 at 9:40 PM, RandyHolt said:

I wish we could trade Forbes Quan and Strom and recoup those picks to use next year... I wonder how much those 3 would fetch right now.  Dare I think we tanked their value somehow enormously.

Not going to jump on one good game for Forbes against a bad group of receivers.

 

However, Quan has quietly shown he has playmaker in him. Had a sack be was robbed off in ATL, forced a fumble on teams and just had a nice pick. His PDs were high level too - think it was against Philly he showed off that 40 inch vert. 
 

We have a player in him, and, while a lineman was a more obvious need, Mauch has stunk as a rookie and JMS wasn’t very good before he got hurt. Torrence is the guy we missed out on if we go by rookie performance but he wasn’t a schematic fit here due to his lack of movement traits (which is not as relevant anyway, given how much EB passes the ball)

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So one guy will say so so and so sucks and another will say he's great.   People can cherry pick either opinion and make McGinn own it but its an odd thing to do.  For starters, its not McGinn's personal opinon.  the 2nd part of it the national media will cling to the more sensational criticism versus the positive takes.

 

McGinn himself cherry picks gossip and narratives about top prospects that he knows will generate attention.  He was a journalist for decades and knows he's telling a story.  And there is absolutely no way to do what he does without having his personal opinion shape the story he tells.  And some of the stories he tells are questionable to the point that they would border on slander if it wasn't established that everything he writes in his draft coverage is gossipy, speculative opinion.  What he does is distasteful and IMO, has no analytical value.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, method man said:

We have a player in him, and, while a lineman was a more obvious need, Mauch has stunk as a rookie and JMS wasn’t very good before he got hurt. Torrence is the guy we missed out on if we go by rookie performance but he wasn’t a schematic fit here due to his lack of movement traits (which is not as relevant anyway, given how much EB passes the ball)

 

Position value sways the calculus in Quan's favor over IOLs like Torrence and Tippmann.  Quan has the upside to be a stud slot man coverage DB and inside zone DB.  That is way more special and rare than an IOL.  I think he can be outright better than Torrence/Tippmann/Mauch/JMS/Avila because I don't think any of those guys were that special.  But even if he's just equivalent to them, I still think he was a better pick than them.  I didn't like this past OL class as much as most people here did, and I don't prefer a need-centric approach to the draft over going BPA.

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

McGinn himself cherry picks gossip and narratives about top prospects that he knows will generate attention.  He was a journalist for decades and knows he's telling a story.  And there is absolutely no way to do what he does without having his personal opinion shape the story he tells.  And some of the stories he tells are questionable to the point that they would border on slander if it wasn't established that everything he writes in his draft coverage is gossipy, speculative opinion.  What he does is distasteful and IMO, has no analytical value.

 

He lets all these guys go on about these players and it all gets published.  The draft media especially love to cherry pick the salacious stuff.  Much more so than McGinn himself does.   If we don't get emotional about the criticisms, there is usually some nuggets in the mix that we didn't know beforehand.

 

So for example if someone just read your post, you'd think the personnel guys hated Stroud.  But they didn't.  Some had concerns and that got the attention,  But globally, he was right there as the 2nd best QB prospect to them and they liked Levis more than the typical mock drafter did. 

 

It would be one thing is the draft went nothing like these personnel guys expect it to go.  But they tend to nail it much more closely.  And beat the mock drafters.  If they didn't I could care less what they have to say.  But i have some interest in how the draft is going to go.  And on that front its a good guide.

 

I don't get emotional about their emotion especially because they are typically all over the place and it seems like how they talk in general.  For example they somewhat guessed where Howell would fall in the pecking order in the draft, but some really liked him, some didn't.

 

Do I find that relevant?  Yeah.  Am interested when some teams scouts really dig a player and why and why others don't.  Granted the ones who don't are often snarky in their comments but I've listened to retired scouts on podcasts here and there and it seems like that's how they talk.  I mentioned this previously, I won an auction where i saw down with McLoughin.  Great guy.  And he was funny when he talked about players, he did it at times with extremes.  I recall telling him I liked Dalvin Cook but was concenred about his fumbiling issues.  I forgot how he responded exactly but I recall he dramatized Cook's fumbiling issues. 

 

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[skinzplay]

He's no Braeden Daniels, @Skinsinparadise!

[Chump Bailey]

On 11/6/2023 at 5:16 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

We could have had Mtichell for nothing.  UDFA.  Speed back that would have been perfect to round out this RB room. 

 

Very impressed with Keaton - he's on my fantasy team

Nice find again SIP. 

 

 

Also, Stroud is obviously doing very well. I thought having one of, if not, the best OL & WR group in college made it difficult to really evaluate him. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Happy for the Texans and Stroud. Anthony Richardson also way, way better in the passing aspect that I gave him credit for.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah, someone should let our FO that it’s possible to draft competent football players in the 2nd round. Pro bowlers even. Since Jon Jansen, I think we’ve drafted one solid player and two or three mediocre players. The rest are just bust after bust after bust. I think the only one who ever got a 2nd contract with us was Rocky McIntosh (who we actually used two 2nd round picks on plus a 6th) and it was for one extra season and then he was out of the league two years later.

 

How’s Quan Martin looking? Next David Amerson?

Edited December 3, 2023 by Sacks 'n' Stuff

[Est.1974]

Forbes is reminding me of the Amerson pick, didn’t he have a stack of college INTs too

[DWinzit]

Still wish we efforted to bring in Laporta or Mayer, to give Howell a best friend for protection on the outside and as a weapon. They would have also been a nice piece for the new regime

 

And as always, we should have grabbed Pace in the 7th, I would have taken him in the 6th.

Edited December 4, 2023 by DWinzit

[Chump Bailey]

1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

Still wish we efforted to bring in Laporta or Mayer, to give Howell a best friend for protection on the outside and as a weapon. They would have also been a nice piece for the new regime

 

And as always, we should have grabbed Pace in the 7th, I would have taken him in the 6th.

 

We may have a chance to draft his brother. His stock has dropped some I believe but he is someone I can see testing well.