2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[CommanderInTheRye]

2 hours ago, BayouBrave86 said:

I don’t think JJ will even be the starter week 1. 

 

 

That could be the case with any rookie qb.

 

Regardless, I think JJ is fortunate in that he was drafted into the best situation. He would need to do little more than be a true game manager early in his career.

 

Whereas Jayden will likely need to use his entire toolbox from day one, not just as a gifted processor and distributer of the ball, but given our o-line issues,  he will  need to utilize his superlative running skills and Houdini-like elusiveness, if we are to have any hope of real success next season.

 

I think Maye is going to struggle the most, year one. Not only is he going to a team with an offensive talent deficit and an inexperienced head coach-- his offensive coordinator, Van Pelt, leaves a great deal to be desired.

 

On top of that, if the pre-draft scouting reports are to be believed (which is admitedly uncertain), Drake is the qb least ready to start, and  most in need of serious attention to, and development of, his foot work, among other things.

 

Chicago, otoh seems to have done a very good job selecting players to surround Caleb and giving him a fair chance for a quick start his first year.

 

However, his downfall could be his propensity for hero ball and whether or not he's capable of playing any other way.

 

As always, time will tell.

 

Edited May 1 by CommanderInTheRye

[redskinss]

You know what I just realized I've been doing to myself unconsciously. 

 

I keep thinking to myself are we being too high on this draft class, are we over valuing our late picks like we always do?

 

Then It hit me, I'm not used to our 6th pick being a 3rd rounder, I can't remember that ever happening and I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around how many players we just brought in that have a realistic shot of being big time contributors and not just camp crushes.

 

What a great feeling.

[seantaylor=god]

1 minute ago, redskinss said:

You know what I just realized I've been doing to myself unconsciously. 

 

I keep thinking to myself are we being too high on this draft class, are we over valuing our late picks like we always do?

 

Then It hit me, I'm not used to our 6th pick being a 3rd rounder, I can't remember that ever happening and I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around how many players we just brought in that have a realistic shot of being big time contributors and not just camp crushes.

 

What a great feeling.

Yeah, usually you expect to get eventual starters from your first 3 picks (1st, 2nd, and 3rd round) and maybe a coin flip on the rest if they are contributors.

 

I think it’s reasonable to expect this class to net 4-5 starters.

[Redskins 2021]

1 hour ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

That could be the case with any rookie qb.

 

Regardless, I think JJ is fortunate in that he was drafted into the best situation. He would need to do little more than be a true game manager early in his career.

 

Whereas Jayden will likely need to use his entire toolbox from day one, not just as a gifted processor and distributer of the ball, but given our o-line issues,  he will  need to utilize his superlative running skills and Houdini-like elusiveness, if we are to have any hope of real success next season.

 

I think Maye is going to struggle the most, year one. Not only is he going to a team with an offensive talent deficit and an inexperienced head coach-- his offensive coordinator, Van Pelt, leaves a great deal to be desired.

 

On top of that, if the pre-draft scouting reports are to be believed (which is admitedly uncertain), Drake is the qb least ready to start, and  most in need of serious attention to, and development of, his foot work, among other things.

 

Chicago, otoh seems to have done a very good job selecting players to surround Caleb and giving him a fair chance for a quick start his first year.

 

However, his downfall could be his propensity for hero ball and whether or not he's capable of playing any other way.

 

As always, time will tell.

 

Jayden better have his running shoes.

[CapsSkins]

5 hours ago, ntotoro said:

Has GMAP even done an overhaul of the scouting staff yet... ? Makes me wonder where the real problem was before he got here.

 

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, seantaylor=god said:

I think it’s reasonable to expect this class to net 4-5 starters.

 

I'm not sure that is ever "reasonable"... If you get 3 your killing it. If you get 4-5, start trying to extend your GM.

I will say they have put themselves in position for it to happen tho.

 

A lot of these guys are going to get the opportunity to contribute early, and not after its become a lost season, and without the specter of new management coming in and wanting to acquire their own guys. It seriously unlikely all these guys work out, but at least there gonna get a shot.

 

JD is self explanatory. All the reps he can eat.

Sinnot has a clear as day 1 year succession plan. He is probably TE1 before the end of year 1.

The league is increasing importance of the slot DB so Mikey can get there. We probably run a lot of Nickel, so we will see plenty of the guy.

Coleman has virtually no long term competition at T. If he can get up to NFL standard, he's running unopposed. I question if he starts the year there tho.

Newton's pathway beyond rotation player is not as clear as the others, but its possible given his talent.

That still leaves room for surprises, in a Curl kinda way. Maybe Luke locks down the slot WR role. It will be hard to get reps over Crowder if he makes himself a gameday mandatory deploy by being our return man again.

 

Unlike last year, whether its positive or negative, this is gonna be a monster impact rookie class.

Edited May 1 by FootballZombie

[DogofWar1]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I'm not sure that is ever "reasonable"... If you get 3 your killing it. If you get 4-5, start trying to extend your GM.

I will say they have put themselves in position for it to happen tho.

 

A lot of these guys are going to get the opportunity to contribute early, and not after its become a lost season, and without the specter of new management coming in and wanting to acquire their own guys. It seriously unlikely all these guys work out, but at least there gonna get a shot.

 

JD is self explanatory. All the reps he can eat.

Sinnot has a clear as day 1 year succession plan. He is probably TE1 before the end of year 1.

The league is increasing importance of the slot DB so Mikey can get there. We probably run a lot of Nickel, so we will see plenty of the guy.

Coleman has virtually no long term competition at T. If he can get up to NFL standard, he's running unopposed. I question if he starts the year there tho.

Newton's pathway beyond rotation player is not as clear as the others, but its possible given his talent.

That still leaves room for surprises, in a Curl kinda way. Maybe Luke locks down the slot WR role. It will be hard to get reps over Crowder if he makes himself a gameday mandatory deploy by being our return man again.

 

Unlike last year, whether its positive or negative, this is gonna be a monster impact rookie class.

 

Something I was thinking about, a lot of our picks are a little older, and the older your draft class is the higher your hit rate needs to be, ideally.

 

Daniels of course we know.  Newton and Sinnott are younger, sub-22, but Sainristil, Coleman, Luke, Magee, Hampton, and Jean-Baptiste are all varying degrees of 23, and I think everyone but Luke will be 24 before or during this coming season.

 

As a practical matter, you'll never draft well enough to fill your major snap count guys with nothing but draft picks.  Given the varying packages we see that's probably like 28-29 players you'd need to draft.  Let's round up to 30 for the sake of simplicity (and also adding in kickers/punters; good K/P are hard to find).

 

The older the player the fewer NFL years they'll have.  If we assume solid starters start to decline below starter status around 32 (this is inexact but probably roughly the average), then you'd have to hit on 30 players, and the time frame you'd need to hit on that number would be 32-X where X is the average draft age.  So if your players are, say, 24 their first year, they'd have roughly 9 seasons before retirement, meaning the team needs to hit on 30/9 or 3.33 "starter/high snap count" level players per year.

 

Compared to, say, average age of 22 first year, you'd have 11 years, and could thus land just 2.7 "starter/high snap count" level players per year.

 

Of course, also as a practical matter, contracts will become a problem, since you'd be paying like 18 guys 2nd or later contracts, and odds are the cap won't support it.

 

But the tldr was just that the older the class the more right you need to be, because you don't really have that 2 year runway you might have with some 20-21 year olds, and then still have 10 years of potentially good play, you need them to contribute much earlier.

[FootballZombie]

16 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Something I was thinking about, a lot of our picks are a little older, and the older your draft class is the higher your hit rate needs to be, ideally.

 

I don't think we should feel any additional pressure to hit just b/c the age range skews higher. Half these guys won't be here, or won't be impactful enough for their age to matter too much. In terms of a teams rookie class as a whole, I think age profile is generally meaningless.

 

Average NFL lifespan is what, 3 years? Who cares about the age range of your guys if most of them are only gonna be around for their rookie deals... if that. You get your usefulness outta them and they are gone. 

 

If they are mid tier contributors who you want to keep around, your gonna sign them to their 2nd deal, but at that point who cares if the are 25-26 or 28-29, they are just glue guys. Its unlikely they will ascend much further, they are just solid role players.

 

The only place were age matters are for the guys that become superstars, and demand big money 2nd contracts. These are the players that are difference makers, and impact your team the most. You want youth here so you can squeeze out as many years as possible. Its unlikely that your gonna pull a bunch of these from any one specific class tho.

 

 

As @Skinsinparadise has pointed out a lot, if you get 2-3 hits in a class, your killing it. We are not gonna be in a situation where in 4-5 years we gotta resign 7 guys to big money deals but we are hurting on the back end cuz we drafted a bunch of geezers. Its not something we need to worry about... Unless GMAP is football Jesus incarnate or something.

[KDawg]

I think we have two guys in this class who are most likely going to be good players:

 

Newton and Sinnott.

 

I think we have one with superstar potential who could be a major franchise turning guy, but could equally break: Daniels.

 

Everyone else is a question mark. 
 

Sainristil looked phenomenal at Michigan… but the size thing is going to rear its head. It just is. The question is how it’s mitigated and how often it occurs. I think he’s going to be a good player.

 

But I figure if we hit on 4 of these dudes we’re in really good shape.

 

The rest of the picks are question marks. 
 

Magee I think has potential to surprise us.

 

UDFAs don’t exist as far as I’m concerned… aside from Chig because he’s a dawg and our corners aren’t established. 

 

 

[DWinzit]

11 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think we have two guys in this class who are most likely going to be good players:

 

Newton and Sinnott.

 

I think we have one with superstar potential who could be a major franchise turning guy, but could equally break: Daniels.

 

Everyone else is a question mark. 
 

Sainristil looked phenomenal at Michigan… but the size thing is going to rear its head. It just is. The question is how it’s mitigated and how often it occurs. I think he’s going to be a good player.

 

But I figure if we hit on 4 of these dudes we’re in really good shape.

 

The rest of the picks are question marks. 
 

Magee I think has potential to surprise us.

 

UDFAs don’t exist as far as I’m concerned… aside from Chig because he’s a dawg and our corners aren’t established. 

 

 

I see this as pretty accurate...and would be a reality check for a lot of homers.

 

They drafted players that fit their vision for where they want the team to move towards. While some think they were BPA, some were not, but they fit what they want.

 

I do note that I see McCaffrey as having a large potential but he was over drafted.

 

I never expect anything from UDFA but always hold out hopes. I agree regarding Chig. Jones or Wiley will make the PS and have a shot if any RB's become injured

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I see this as pretty accurate...and would be a reality check for a lot of homers.

 

They drafted players that fit their vision for where they want the team to move towards. While some think they were BPA, some were not, but they fit what they want.

 

I do note that I see McCaffrey as having a large potential but he was over drafted.

 

I never expect anything from UDFA but always hold out hopes. I agree regarding Chig. Jones or Wiley will make the PS and have a shot if any RB's become injured

I think McCaffrey (and others) certainly have potential. I mean it’s not impossible each of our picks play well for us…

 

Just not at all realistic.

 

some may get hurt. Some may get buried on the depth chart. Some may flounder in development. Some may not be as good as we had hoped.

 

Reality is that there are currently fanbases from 32 teams who are hyping up 70% or more of their draft choices. 
 

That hit rate is pretty much impossible

 

I think us hitting 50% (including UDFA if they hit but NOT counting them as a miss) is a high, high, high improbability.

 

im not really saying who will hit and who won’t. 
 

Though I think Sinnott and Newton have the highest chance.

 

Sain and McCaffrey are in a similar boat. Sain was better in college but his size is an issue. McCaffrey has the tools and he may be someone that can help us in the return game… maybe? If that becomes his role that can be considered a hit even if he doesn’t do much as a receiver. But it’s not a major hit.

 

I just think our fanbase should realize the chances are higher that our whole class busts than it is half of them hit.

 

Though, again, I think there is a chance for us to get 5 players out of this class realistically. Which is a huge number.

[DWinzit]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think McCaffrey (and others) certainly have potential. I mean it’s not impossible each of our picks play well for us…

 

Just not at all realistic.

 

some may get hurt. Some may get buried on the depth chart. Some may flounder in development. Some may not be as good as we had hoped.

 

Reality is that there are currently fanbases from 32 teams who are hyping up 70% or more of their draft choices. 
 

That hit rate is pretty much impossible

 

I think us hitting 50% (including UDFA if they hit but NOT counting them as a miss) is a high, high, high improbability.

 

im not really saying who will hit and who won’t. 
 

Though I think Sinnott and Newton have the highest chance.

 

Sain and McCaffrey are in a similar boat. Sain was better in college but his size is an issue. McCaffrey has the tools and he may be someone that can help us in the return game… maybe? If that becomes his role that can be considered a hit even if he doesn’t do much as a receiver. But it’s not a major hit.

 

I just think our fanbase should realize the chances are higher that our whole class busts than it is half of them hit.

 

Though, again, I think there is a chance for us to get 5 players out of this class realistically. Which is a huge number.

You are right, there will be numerous misses with this class. We will miss on a number of these players. The way I see it Daniels will be at least decent, Newt and Ben will be big contributors. Sain needs to become the slot guy and McCaffrey will need to surpass Crowder as a WR4 and returner. We really almost need Coleman to hit or this could be a brutal year. 

 

It's a wait and see but I'm left with not as much of a warm and fuzzy feel in reviewing our draft haul. Here's to hoping they all prove successful

 

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

31 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I see this as pretty accurate...and would be a reality check for a lot of homers.

 

They drafted players that fit their vision for where they want the team to move towards. While some think they were BPA, some were not, but they fit what they want.

 

I do note that I see McCaffrey as having a large potential but he was over drafted.

 

I never expect anything from UDFA but always hold out hopes. I agree regarding Chig. Jones or Wiley will make the PS and have a shot if any RB's become injured

I understand the sentiment of LMC being over drafted, but he was pretty much the last WR with + size that was left and would have gone fast.

 

I probably would have went with Malik Washington with our 5th, but at that point we've got 4 WRs locked into the roster and Jamo fits the small shifty guy

 

Not to mention more youth and depth in our secondary isn't a bad idea.

[DWinzit]

5 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I understand the sentiment of LMC being over drafted, but he was pretty much the last WR with + size that was left and would have gone fast.

 

I probably would have went with Malik Washington with our 5th, but at that point we've got 4 WRs locked into the roster and Jamo fits the small shifty guy

 

Not to mention more youth and depth in our secondary isn't a bad idea.

Maybe they shouldn't have gone WR but went BPA, maybe your boy Grey. Or there were other receivers that were ranked higher on the board Franklin, Baker,  even Walker or maybe try trading back. at the end of the day, I'm okay with LMC but he was a reach

[Chump Bailey]

My only concern, as a lot of other's here have stated, is our OT situation. I think we should have drafted 2 of them. That's really my only gripe about this draft.

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

My only concern, as a lot of other's here have stated, is our OT situation. I think we should have drafted 2 of them. That's really my only gripe about this draft.

I don’t have many gripes with the draft. I’m still annoyed we handed Dejean to Philly. But other than that I like our class. 
 

I’m just very aware of the success rate of draft classes in general. 
 

Most of these guys are very likely to flame out. 
 

Doesn’t mean they will. There is always a chance this is the class that rewrites the rule book. 

[Koolblue13]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I don’t have many gripes with the draft. I’m still annoyed we handed Dejean to Philly. But other than that I like our class. 
 

I’m just very aware of the success rate of draft classes in general. 
 

Most of these guys are very likely to flame out. 
 

Doesn’t mean they will. There is always a chance this is the class that rewrites the rule book. 

The Eagles definitely improved their secondairy

[DWinzit]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

The Eagles definitely improved their secondairy

I'd say with 2 of the top 3 corners 🤮

[CommanderInTheRye]

COMMAND CENTER: Exclusive Adam Peters post-draft interview...

 

 

 

 

 

DQ and his sayings have definitely rubbed off on AP. I chuckled when he started talking about Kliff Kingsbury and how he was going to use his superpower to develop Jayden-- because I know that came straight from the DQ playbook.

 

.

Edited May 2 by CommanderInTheRye

[Koolblue13]

16 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Maybe they shouldn't have gone WR but went BPA, maybe your boy Grey. Or there were other receivers that were ranked higher on the board Franklin, Baker,  even Walker or maybe try trading back. at the end of the day, I'm okay with LMC but he was a reach

I can see the Grey pick, but it seems like they liked Magee later. Other than Grey, the only pther players in the 4rth I woul;d have been happy with were the 2 RBs.

 

I liked the two players after Magee in Hart and SVP, who I'm shocked dropped.

 

But hey, bigger WR with a golden pedigree and a speedy LBer with good instincts that can play side to side.

 

I'm happy, but I think LMC wasn't much of a reach. He was a 4rth round project, maybe 5th. We got him with the last pick in the 3rd.

[CommanderInTheRye]

The 7 Best Draft Day Steals.

 

We actually had 2 of the 7 top Steals in the draft (and we were involved in a third steal).

 

They talk about the Commanders at:

3:41 ("Nasty" Newton)

14:22 (Mike Sainristil)

 

[For those interested they talk about the pick we traded to Philadelphia who then selected steal Cooper DeJean at around 25:09]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 2 by CommanderInTheRye

[redskinss]

Ok, little help from the medical professionals on here because I just read something about payton Wilson that kind of blew my mind.

The article said that due to multiple knee injuries he only has one acl.

How is this possible?

I would have thought that with the severity of acl injuries and the lengthy recovery time that so many players have to go through that it was kind of necessary to have one in each knee.

How is he able to perform at such a high level missing one and why can't players who tear one just keep on going?

[Going Commando]

20 hours ago, seantaylor=god said:

I think it’s reasonable to expect this class to net 4-5 starters

 

Five picks in the top 67 should net 4-5 starters.  We had to trade three starters to get this ammo.

[DogofWar1]

I'm pretty optimistic about this class.

 

Dan Quinn has a lot of experience whipping defenses and defensive players into shape, and the way players were seemingly tripping over themselves to follow him, to the extent that Cowboys fans started a conspiracy theory about him, speaks very well of him.

 

Setting aside that I hope we can get the maximum potential out of our returning guys, including salvaging guys like Forbes, it gives me hope for guys like Newton and Sainristil to come in and perform to high levels in their roles, which there is some runway for them because they are in rotational positions each.

 

The class of course turns on Jayden.  So if Jayden works out, Newton works out, and Sainristil works out, then that's three right there.

 

I'm very optimistic about Sinnott and Luke, they just strike me as the kind of guys who become really solid dudes, even if they are never tip top tier 1000+ yard guys.  Coleman I like the more I learn about him.  I think he has a place in a starting lineup in the NFL.  Where that place is, not sure, but somewhere along the line I gotta think he has a home, or worst case he becomes a decent backup/swing tackle.

 

I won't be so optimistic as to think we're getting 6 starters before round 5, but I think the odds of more than 3 starters from this class is pretty high.

[illone]