Welcome to the Washington Commanders K.J. Henry EDGE, CLEM

[Morneblade]

15 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

The plan seems to be Barton and Davis considering 60% of our plays involves 5 DBs. I would expect another vet brought at some stage.

 

I understand that, but LB was the biggest issue on D last year, IMO. Barton is a lateral move to a player that was average at best. Davis is no stud, and has been underwhelming. Depth is poor. David Mayo is still on the roster. Waiting for a June 1st cut is pretty sketchy.

[Est.1974]

4 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

I understand that, but LB was the biggest issue on D last year, IMO. Barton is a lateral move to a player that was average at best. Davis is no stud, and has been underwhelming. Depth is poor. David Mayo is still on the roster. Waiting for a June 1st cut is pretty sketchy.

Much like the discussion on OL, it’s pretty difficult to go in hard on Rivera IMO. This is a complicated situation in terms of the ownership position. 
 

You could argue that we we should have not bothered with Barton, or Gates, or Wylie, and just took our lumps in 2023. Trading out for picks etc. 
 

It is what it is for now.

 

[Morneblade]

1 minute ago, Est.1974 said:

Much like the discussion on OL, it’s pretty difficult to go in hard on Rivera IMO. This is a complicated situation in terms of the ownership position. 
 

You could argue that we we should have not bothered with Barton, or Gates, or Wylie, and just took our lumps in 2023. Trading out for picks etc. 
 

It is what it is for now.

 

 

I'd think he'd want to show new ownership that he was interested in building a better team, to improve his chances of not getting fired.

[Est.1974]

Just now, Morneblade said:

 

I'd think he'd want to show new ownership that he was interested in building a better team, to improve his chances of not getting fired.

I don’t think that makes a difference. New owner already knows what he wants.

[method man]

9 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

I understand that, but LB was the biggest issue on D last year, IMO. Barton is a lateral move to a player that was average at best. Davis is no stud, and has been underwhelming. Depth is poor. David Mayo is still on the roster. Waiting for a June 1st cut is pretty sketchy.

The lack of depth here really pisses me off. We’ve heard from Keim two seasons in a row that they knew they needed to address it in the draft and they did nothing last year or this year. If Davis or Barton go down, the depth behind these two is sketchy

[method man]

For the folks who keep throwing out the “off ball LB has been devalued and doesn’t matter” crap out there, look at how the other good defensive teams have invested in the position

[Silvernon]

Throw out Davis' 1st year and consider the last his rookie year; hopefully makes another jump. He would be the #1 backer on a team that has plenty of good DBs in a league with more pass catching.

 

The #2LB is a part-time player. The #3DT is more important. #3DE more important.

 

Would have been great to keep Holcomb, but not a huge dropoff.

 

I don't think you need four 1st rounders on the DL. Expect them to pick one. Hope Henry plays well regardless.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Silvernon

[MrJL]

3 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

I'd think he'd want to show new ownership that he was interested in building a better team, to improve his chances of not getting fired.

 

he has limited authority to spend with Snyder around, and the new owner may want all the picks for next year so trading them for capital next year might not work, and trading out this year for next year may be seen as to much punting on this year, especially since his free agency might be limited

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

22 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

The plan seems to be Barton and Davis considering 60% of our plays involves 5 DBs. I would expect another vet brought at some stage.

 

Not 60%. We run 3 safeties 80% of the time.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

22 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

I understand that, but LB was the biggest issue on D last year, IMO. Barton is a lateral move to a player that was average at best. Davis is no stud, and has been underwhelming. Depth is poor. David Mayo is still on the roster. Waiting for a June 1st cut is pretty sketchy.

 

I disagree, but we all have our opinions about what contributed more or less to holes in our defense that were exploited.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

On 4/30/2023 at 6:49 AM, KDawg said:

 

I did during my original watch of prospects and I didn't like him. At all. But you miss things when you are doing this as a hobby and not full time and you are watching so many guys.

 

So I went back and watched and...

 

I saw the exact same thing. He vacuums into blockers, uses a single move, gets swallowed by OTs and is very slow to react at times. I watched the Syracuse game in full and was very perplexed.

 

But on the North Carolina game and... it was the exact same. 

 

Then I watched a play where Drake Maye broke the pocket because interior pressure forced him off his spot, and then I saw the DT that caused the movement break out of it with a spin and crush Maye. Went to the next play. 

 

Stopped.

 

Went back...

 

"What number was that creating all that disruption? Get him on my list of guys for next year..."

 

It was Henry. 

 

Watched some more... Every time he was at 3-tech he looked like a completely different player.

 

So I went back to Syracuse and watched and realized why... Clemson used him as a hybrid DE/LB. He was aligned as an EDGE but he had a dual role. He is sometimes a part of the coverage assignment and sometimes he is assigned to the back that peels his direction. Because of that dual responsibility, he was very tentative and showed a lack of explosion. He was focused on that dual role. Watched him get burned in coverage on a wheel route against SU that resulted in six for the Orange.

 

But every time he was aligned as a 3-technique the guy looked like he was shot out of a ****ing cannon. 

 

My conclusion: If he plays EDGE like he did 3-technique in a scheme designed for him to not need to worry about coverage: We got ourselves a dude. A real explosive, athletic player who uses leverage well and has counter moves.

 

If he plays EDGE like he did for Clemson we are getting a cut candidate.

 

But I have to think it's more likely the scheme that caused that and he will play closer to the 3-tech version.

 

Hated the pick yesterday when it happened. Watched more, found him as a 3-tech and now I think we may have gotten a steal.

 

We'll see. I think he and Forbes have the highest ceiling in the class. Henry also has the lowest floor. 

 

Didn't see him line up at the 3T more than a time or two in the games I watched, but he does have a very clear difference in how he approaches a play depending on what his assignment is. He's disciplined and won't deviate when his priority is maintain contain vs run or the pocket. But on occasion he gets a green light to attack the QB and he looks like he's got potential doing it.

 

NC State game he had a bunch of pressures when given the green light, but most plays it's just head up, lock onto the OT, and read the action in the backfield. Here are some of his better pass rushing snaps as an Edge:

 

Inside move

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxxHRUqDgKPl8sTFYIJupqKoP5au6D-1Ki

 

Doubled but works inside and steers the QB back towards the looping Murphy

https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx59MQQOkamIvY6Zq_QKjshKiBzAhfbszn

 

Another inside move

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxTPk0B1OWTeyRSf3ZakWnDXIAgKL7luCI

 

Pressure on stunt

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxgJ8KIwbZEyp4WYa-Bcz_mdNJhIrGYQLe

 

Up 10 in the 4th, looks like they're getting more of a green light, quick off the ball speed rush and draws the hold while turning the corner

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxeinGSTCTYsei2GUg60a5juF4geJdVi8h

 

Spin move works but loses balance before he can finish it

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxtCSMV2XgbHf6-bTF8kIg4LyzHu16k9rQ

 

Another speed rush that gets pressure

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxlPYAhi9QZyDrYSPDCoKFCTTQ_D0eFp8_

 

 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Not 60%. We run 3 safeties 80% of the time.

Wasn’t that with McCain rolling down into the slot role though?  Thought Forrest started getting more time once we benched Jackson, moved St Juste outside, and altered Bobby’s role.  I could be wrong…

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

9 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Wasn’t that with McCain rolling down into the slot role though?  Thought Forrest started getting more time once we benched Jackson, moved St Juste outside, and altered Bobby’s role.  I could be wrong…

 

Yeah, that's with Buffalo Nickel. But if the default D runs that out 80% of the time...wait, sorry it was 85% last season.

[skinny21]

2 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Yeah, that's with Buffalo Nickel. But if the default D runs that out 80% of the time...wait, sorry it was 85% last season.

Tricky to parse out because of different situations/packages (goal line, dime, 5 dlinemen, etc)… but per PFR our backers played 173% of snaps, whereas all of our dbs together combined for 509.40% of snaps.  Again, lot of nuance, but that suggests we had 2 backers in far more often than 6 dbs.

Of course, if we just roughly say were were in base 25% of the time (I have no idea the real number), that would put our 2 backer snaps at 48% vs 9.4% for 6 dbs.🤷‍♂️

[Morneblade]

On 4/30/2023 at 4:08 PM, MrJL said:

 

he has limited authority to spend with Snyder around, and the new owner may want all the picks for next year so trading them for capital next year might not work, and trading out this year for next year may be seen as to much punting on this year, especially since his free agency might be limited

 

That has literally nothing to do with what I was talking about.

[Est.1974]

On 5/1/2023 at 3:58 PM, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Not 60%. We run 3 safeties 80% of the time.

I was just quoting what Rivera said so I can’t disagree with you 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

On 5/1/2023 at 12:55 PM, skinny21 said:

Tricky to parse out because of different situations/packages (goal line, dime, 5 dlinemen, etc)… but per PFR our backers played 173% of snaps, whereas all of our dbs together combined for 509.40% of snaps.  Again, lot of nuance, but that suggests we had 2 backers in far more often than 6 dbs.

Of course, if we just roughly say were were in base 25% of the time (I have no idea the real number), that would put our 2 backer snaps at 48% vs 9.4% for 6 dbs.🤷‍♂️

 

I'm interpreting PFR's breakdown differently. Long post below, but since the sum of all linebacker snaps was so low it would be almost impossible to be in "Base" 4-3 for much of any defensive snaps, let alone 25%. Unless I'm thinking about this incorrectly, the % of time we ran 3 LB's was probably closer to 0% than 5%.

 

Things we know:

-11 players on the field = defensive snaps should add up to 1100%. 11 * 100%.

-Sum of all 6 linebacker snaps were 174.62%

-Sum of all 5 safety snaps were 272.61%.

-Sum of all 7 corner snaps were 238.22%

-Adding all 12 DB's together gets to 510.83%.

 

Let's pretend we ran "Base" 4-3 a large amount for 25% of the time (in your hypothetical)

-"Base" 4-3 D using 25% of all snaps means 3 linebackers * 25% gets us to 75% of the 174.62% total.

-That leaves 99.62% of leftover linebacker snaps needing to be used for the the other 75% of non "Base" 4-3 formations.

-That would also leave 310.83% of the DB snaps needing to be used for the other 75% of non "Base" 4-3 formations.

-Only way to do that is if we ran a Dime 4-1-6 formation almost every time we were not in "Base" 4-3, with a few rare 3-1-7 or 4-0-7 snaps sprinkled in.

-Running the "Base" 4-3 D as much as 25% of the time would mean we were never in a Nickel 5-2-5 defense.

-It's simply not possible for us to have run "Base" 4-3 D anywhere near such a large amount.

 

To put things another way, and take a guess at formations

-If we assume there was always at least 1 LB on the field at all times, that gives us with a minimum total LB usage of 100%.

-Then 174.62% - 100% leaves us with just 74.62% to play around with for extra linebackers in formations. If we put all 74.62% of total linebacker snaps into one formation, it would leave us with Nickel being used 74.62% of the time. Nickel usage of that much would take up 373.1% of the DB's 510.83% total. Leaving 137.73% to play around with. Total formation snaps left is 25.38%. 6 DB's would take us to only 22.96% and max out DB usage, so that's not it as we have leftover formation snaps but zero DB snaps left. But if we ran a 5-1-5 defense, then we can start to max out both formation snaps and DB snaps.

-A 4-2-5 formation usage of 74.62% and a 5-1-5 formation usage of say 15% would leave us with 10.38% of formation snaps left and 62.73% of DB snaps unaccounted for. If we then say the rest of those 10.38% of the snaps went into a 4-1-6 Dime defense, then that uses up 62.28% of the leftover 62.73% of DB snaps. So really close.

-Rounding this up to have 4-2-5 Nickel at 75%, 5-1-5 Nickel at 15%, and 4-1-6 Dime at 10% gets us really close to the actual snap usage the team had. But this also means there were zero "Base 4-3".

 

Obviously we used some 4-3 (4 DB), 5-2 (4DB), and 3-1 (7DB) defensive front formations as well. But anyway you shake out the position group snap numbers, and try and figure out formation numbers from that, the vast majority of the snaps must have been in some kind of Nickel (5DB) formation. We're looking at almost no 3 linebacker formations used.

[skinny21]

@Always A Commander Never A Captain Wow, that’s some well put together data!  Not at all surprised to know we rarely rolled with 3 backers (I’d have guessed less than 5%).  

My comment about 25% was me trying to be generous to what I took your point to be, lol.  I worded it poorly.

 

Going back to the root, I probably misinterpreted your point - 74 said we use 5 dbs 60% of the time.  You responded, “Not 60%.  We run 3 safeties 80% of the time.”  I thought you were saying we couldn’t have used 5 dbs 60% of the time since we used 3 safeties 80% of the time.  I was trying to point out that 3 safeties and 5 dbs aren’t mutually exclusive.

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

On 4/30/2023 at 4:04 PM, Silvernon said:

 

 

The #2LB is a part-time player. The #3DT is more important. #3DE more important.

No he isn't. 75% of plays we have 2 LBers on the field and the other guy also plays STs. #2 LBer is an integral starter on our defense.

On 5/1/2023 at 10:58 AM, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Not 60%. We run 3 safeties 80% of the time.

 

On 5/1/2023 at 12:39 PM, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Yeah, that's with Buffalo Nickel. But if the default D runs that out 80% of the time...wait, sorry it was 85% last season.

 

On 5/1/2023 at 12:55 PM, skinny21 said:

Tricky to parse out because of different situations/packages (goal line, dime, 5 dlinemen, etc)… but per PFR our backers played 173% of snaps, whereas all of our dbs together combined for 509.40% of snaps.  Again, lot of nuance, but that suggests we had 2 backers in far more often than 6 dbs.

Of course, if we just roughly say were were in base 25% of the time (I have no idea the real number), that would put our 2 backer snaps at 48% vs 9.4% for 6 dbs.🤷‍♂️

We run 2 LBer sets on 75% of downs. 3/4 of our plays have 2 LBers on the field. Not buffalo nickle, extra safety, whatever.

 

2 Linebackers on most (75%) of plays. 

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

No he isn't. 75% of plays we have 2 LBers on the field and the other guy also plays STs. #2 LBer is an integral starter on our defense.

 

 

We run 2 LBer sets on 75% of downs. 3/4 of our plays have 2 LBers on the field. Not buffalo nickle, extra safety, whatever.

 

2 Linebackers on most (75%) of plays. 

Absolutely correct. I don't understand why this is so hard.

 

We run a 4-2 base.

 

We are sometimes in 5-2. Sometimes in 5-1. Sometimes in 6-2. But we are a primary 4-2-5 team.

 

The Buffalo Nickel is a safety. As is a slot corner. And a slot corner and a buffalo nickel are essentially the same thing. Difference being strong side/weak side but that doesn't even always apply.

 

I'm flabbergasted that people think our second ILB doesn't matter (like you). We've had this issue for years and people are still discounting it. Amazing. 

Edited May 3, 2023 by KDawg

[Koolblue13]

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Absolutely correct. I don't understand why this is so hard.

 

We run a 4-2 base.

 

We are sometimes in 5-2. Sometimes in 5-1. Sometimes in 6-2. But we are a primary 4-2-5 team.

 

The Buffalo Nickel is a safety. As is a slot corner. And a slot corner and a buffalo nickel are essentially the same thing. Difference being strong side/weak side but that doesn't even always apply.

 

I'm flabbergasted that people think our second ILB doesn't matter (like you). We've had this issue for years and people are still discounting it. Amazing. 

This really drives me nuts. I've had people tell me the safety who plays buffalo nickle is the second LBer and my guy, NO it is not. That is a safety taking the role of the WILL backer. He is not a Linebacker. 

 

2 Linebackers - 75% of downs= We have TWO Important Linebacker roles on our defense.

[Skinsinparadise]

Wow.  That's a lot of work from @Always A Commander Never A Captain.  That had to take some time.

 

This week I'll find the time to watch Henry.  And also Jones.  Just watched one game of both.

 

The third safety has trumped the third LB in this defense.  So IMO adding Quan was a bigger deal then adding that third LB.  Especially considering we like to use a safety often to play the slot. not just in big nickel situations (versus TE's, big WRs).  But I would like another LB for depth reasons.  And a decent LB, not a JAG.

 

 I watched a little Andre Jones, and to my naked eye, he looks like a more twitchy athlete than Henry.  He played LB before transitioning to edge.

 

He might be the dude who could play that sort or rover LB role to rush the passer more so than someone like Henry.  He's a ball of fire of a player with some range thanks to his long legs and effort.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

That's a lot of work from @Always A Commander Never A Captain.  This week I'll find the time to watch Henry.  And also Jones.  Just watched one game of both.

 

The third safety has trumped the third LB in this defense.  So IMO adding Quan was a bigger deal then adding that third LB.  Especially considering we like to use a safety often to play the slot. not just in big nickel situations (versus TE's, big WRs).  But I would like another LB for depth reasons.  And a decent LB, not a JAG.

 

 I watched a little Andre Jones, and to my naked eye, he looks like a more twitchy athlete than Henry.  He played LB before transitioning to edge.

 

He might be the dude who could play that sort or rover LB role to rush the passer more so than someone like Henry.  He's a ball of fire of a player with some range thanks to his long legs and effort.

I think the majority of the argument isn't about a third LB. It's about a second LB. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think the majority of the argument isn't about a third LB. It's about a second LB. 

 

OK, yeah I haven't clearly charted it.  I depend on Warren Sharp's book for that, not out yet.  But just relying on pure memory, we seem to have 2 LBs on the field enough times to make having 2 important.

 

 

 

[mhd24]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think the majority of the argument isn't about a third LB. It's about a second LB. 

We always have Bostic as a break-the-glass emergency fill in LB LOL.  I figure they want to give Barton the opportunity to win the job as 2nd LB.