The Official 2023 ES Free Agency Thread... available until Free Agency 2024 begins

[MartinC]

9 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Mauch will probably have a few decent years as a rotational guard. He was a fun draft prospect, but that's probably it.

 

Strom will probably end up starting, because he's got guys with injuries ahead of him. He was conceptually a late round center only prospect. 

 

I get the concern about the O'Line - i think pretty much everyone shares that feeling. You are preaching to the choir here to some extent. But lets keep things sane - Stromberg was widely projected as a 3rd or 4th round pick. He might have been a slight reach, but it was slight - he certainly wasn't someone expected to go late rounds.

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/ricky-stromberg-c-arkansas-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2023/

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/ricky-stromberg/32005354-5260-5750-52b2-dda533841893

[Koolblue13]

17 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

I get the concern about the O'Line - i think pretty much everyone shares that feeling. You are preaching to the choir here to some extent. But lets keep things sane - Stromberg was widely projected as a 3rd or 4th round pick. He might have been a slight reach, but it was slight - he certainly wasn't someone expected to go late rounds.

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/ricky-stromberg-c-arkansas-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2023/

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/ricky-stromberg/32005354-5260-5750-52b2-dda533841893

I agree with that about Strom. His range was 3-6th. I've been calling the pick for months and I'm fine with it. 

 

I think Mauch gets over hyped and I don't think Daniels will ever be a player.

 

I was saying that Strom is not a day one starter like JMS or Avalia and needs to improve before he starts, but don't think that will happen because what's in front of him isn't good enough to keep him on the bench (per performance or health)

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

I agree with that about Strom. His range was 3-6th. I've been calling the pick for months and I'm fine with it. 

 

I think Mauch gets over hyped and I don't think Daniels will ever be a player.

 

I was saying that Strom is not a day one starter like JMS or Avalia and needs to improve before he starts, but don't think that will happen because what's in front of him isn't good enough to keep him on the bench (per performance or health)

I think Strom is much closer to a day one starter than Avila. But I didn’t like Avila much. Looks like he’s moving in quick sand at all times.

 

I, PERSONALLY, think he’s better than JMS. But I like JMS, too, and think both are day 1 starters.

 

But opinions are like… well… you know.

[Skinsinparadise]

58 minutes ago, Cool Hwhip said:

Ah another preview being down on Howell.🙄Not saying the kid is gonna turn into a HoFer but damn give him a chance.

 

I am good with Howell.  But I got the national pessimism to some extent too -- most young QBs fail and is there an organization in the NFL more notorious than this one as for getting the QB spot wrong?

 

Though they did say even if Howell is OK, this team doesn't have enough.  And I agree with that point.

[Koolblue13]

25 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think Strom is much closer to a day one starter than Avila. But I didn’t like Avila much. Looks like he’s moving in quick sand at all times.

 

I, PERSONALLY, think he’s better than JMS. But I like JMS, too, and think both are day 1 starters.

 

But opinions are like… well… you know.

I know you were down on Avalia, as well as some others, however we were trying to move up from 47 to get him and couldn't and he went at 36 I think and it was widely considered a good move. JMS was also a second rounder. 

 

We did exactly what I thought we'd do. Wait around and watch the top prospects get drafted ahead of us and take whoever was left at IOL, which I think we all thought it would be Strom.

 

I think he was the only OL drafted in the 3rd. Everyone else basically drafted all the top OL in round 1&2, while we watched and waited. Then used one of the last picks from day 2 to take from the top of the day three heap.

 

So, while opinions can't be right or wrong really, I think it's pretty clear that most of the league leans towards thinking Strom is not a day one starter.

[MartinC]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Though they did say even if Howell is OK, this team doesn't have enough.  And I agree with that point.

 

I guess that depends what 'OK' means. OK (ie league average?) QB play would be a LOT better than we had last season overall. The defense should be good and we have one of the better receiver situations in the league. If we get average QB play it will come down to how good can the O'line be and will we be able to run the ball (I'm not as high as some are on Robinson and the running back room - I think we are OK there but not great).

 

It feels like a 7 to 8 win team to me. Which might be the worst possible outcome.

[Chris 44]

20 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am good with Howell.  But I got the national pessimism to some extent too -- most young QBs fail and is there an organization in the NFL more notorious than this one as for getting the QB spot wrong?

 

Though they did say even if Howell is OK, this team doesn't have enough.  And I agree with that point.

Im pretty high on Howell, I think he will be as good as the OL allows him to be. If the definition of OK is middle of the road starting NFL QB then I think Howell will fit that bill. Baring injuries to the skill positions, and to some extent the unknown that is EB, I think Howell will do well. Just very disappointed in how we addressed the OL. Going out on a bit of a limb but Howell will go as far as the OL allows him.

11 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

I guess that depends what 'OK' means. OK (ie league average?) QB play would be a LOT better than we had last season overall. The defense should be good and we have one of the better receiver situations in the league. If we get average QB play it will come down to how good can the O'line be and will we be able to run the ball (I'm not as high as some are on Robinson and the running back room - I think we are OK there but not great).

 

It feels like a 7 to 8 win team to me. Which might be the worst possible outcome.

Think I just said what you said...lol

[KDawg]

42 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I know you were down on Avalia, as well as some others, however we were trying to move up from 47 to get him and couldn't and he went at 36 I think and it was widely considered a good move. JMS was also a second rounder. 

 

We did exactly what I thought we'd do. Wait around and watch the top prospects get drafted ahead of us and take whoever was left at IOL, which I think we all thought it would be Strom.

 

I think he was the only OL drafted in the 3rd. Everyone else basically drafted all the top OL in round 1&2, while we watched and waited. Then used one of the last picks from day 2 to take from the top of the day three heap.

 

So, while opinions can't be right or wrong really, I think it's pretty clear that most of the league leans towards thinking Strom is not a day one starter.

I think all it means is that there weren’t many center needy teams and they didn’t have Strom ahead of other positional players. But we’ll find out

[Koolblue13]

https://www.chicagobearshq.com/bears-football/story/bears-trying-to-land-elite-pass-rushers-20647?fbclid=IwAR3jLI70Z8jjpuIYFTmxYFmBaBxrYmF4rJ6aL0k-BAq0x0-MrIN_ih7675M

 

If he can stay healthy, Young is a game-changing player that will give you double-digit sacks in the right system.

 

[Est.1974]

40 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

https://www.chicagobearshq.com/bears-football/story/bears-trying-to-land-elite-pass-rushers-20647?fbclid=IwAR3jLI70Z8jjpuIYFTmxYFmBaBxrYmF4rJ6aL0k-BAq0x0-MrIN_ih7675M

 

If he can stay healthy, Young is a game-changing player that will give you double-digit sacks in the right system.

 

Trade him for a 2nd round and 4th rounder in 2024. Get a couple of picks off the Bears.

 

Then bring Frank Clark in for a season. He’s a bit of a loose cannon but so what.

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Trade him for a 2nd round and 4th rounder in 2024. Get a couple of picks off the Bears.

 

Then bring Frank Clark in for a season. He’s a bit of a loose cannon but so what.

He won't garner that much in a trade.

[MartinC]

5 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

He won't garner that much in a trade.

 

I tend to agree - but then if thats the case there is zero point trading him. See how he plays, if he plays well we could try to extend him or tag him. Or we can let him hit free agency and get a comp pick.

[Est.1974]

7 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

I tend to agree - but then if thats the case there is zero point trading him. See how he plays, if he plays well we could try to extend him or tag him. Or we can let him hit free agency and get a comp pick.

Yeah that’s an optimistic ask I know. 
 

As an aside, I’m not expecting us getting comp picks in the next couple years. I expect us to be spending in free agency to offset any high end departures.

[Skinsinparadise]

41 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

He won't garner that much in a trade.

 

Trading Chase or Sweat, I'd think our best shot especially if its Chase is he burns it up before the trading deadline and is moved then.

 

Because otherwise per your point, players coming off of major injuries don't get much back typically in trades

 

3 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

I guess that depends what 'OK' means. OK (ie league average?) QB play would be a LOT better than we had last season overall. The defense should be good and we have one of the better receiver situations in the league. If we get average QB play it will come down to how good can the O'line be and will we be able to run the ball (I'm not as high as some are on Robinson and the running back room - I think we are OK there but not great).

 

It feels like a 7 to 8 win team to me. Which might be the worst possible outcome.

 

Agree.

 

In theory they should be better than last year.  Odds are good that Howell > Heinicke-Wentz.  The defense should be better in theory considering the secondary upgrades and Chase being back.  

 

But then I do think the division rivals did a better job upgrading their rosters -- maybe not Philly but they did well enough to offset their FA losses. And the schedule looks much tougher.

 

So yeah for me am guessing 6-9 wins.  I'd bet though 7. 

Edited May 17, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

29 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Yeah that’s an optimistic ask I know. 
 

As an aside, I’m not expecting us getting comp picks in the next couple years. I expect us to be spending in free agency to offset any high end departures.

 

Dan was allergic to losing battles to win wars.  He didn't like trading players at the peak of their value.   Ron doesn't seem to dig that game either.  I think that's about to change, judging by Harris' history.

 

So if this was Dan-Ron, I'd think almost no shot they'd trade Chase or Sweat at the trading deadline.  That isn't in their DNA.  But it feels like its very much in Josh's DNA.  Will see.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[MrJL]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Dan was allergic to losing battles to win wars.  He didn't like trading players at the peak of their value.   Ron doesn't seem to dig that game either.  I think that's about to change, judging by Harris' history.

 

So if this was Dan-Ron, I'd think almost no shot they'd trade Chase or Sweat at the trading deadline.  That isn't in their DNA.  But it feels like its very much in Josh's DNA.  Will see.

 

the NFL is still not a trade happy league though

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, MrJL said:

 

the NFL is still not a trade happy league though

 

It's plenty trade happy enough for our purposes. 

 

And its trade happpy enough for SF to move Buckner years ago and for Denver to move Bradley Chubb.

 

Teams can move assets when they are overloaded at a spot -- especially if they are dealing a young ascending player.  We don't play that game so it feels a bit out of sorts.  But we could if we wanted to. 

 

For example according to Keim they could have dealt Payne for at least a 2nd if they wanted to do it.  It worked out, we kept him.  but its not as if we couldn't have moved him.  According to some we could have moved Kirk for a first rounder and change.  According to some a first rounder and to others a 2nd and third for Trent if he was dealt that year before the trading deadline.  But we don't roll like that.

 

the problem with Chase of course is he's shown no production since his rookie season and is coming off of an injury.  But if he played like his hair is on fire and looked like his old self in the first half of the season, they'd likely be able to get something good for him.  But right now I'd be surprised if we got much.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[philibusters]

I actually think you could get a decent haul for Chase Young.  That said, Kevin Cole on Unexpected Points made the point on one of his podcasts, now not the time to maxmize your return in a trade.   You can get more after a player gets injured and there is an immediate need on a contender or alternatively if a team that wasn't expected to be a contended is better than expected and is suddenly a contender.  You usually get more in return once the season starts.  Right now teams are as happy with their projected 53 as they are likely going to be. Injuries will happen and a certain amount of players just won't be as good as they were hoping.

 

Chase Young was a blue chip prospect.  There hasn't been as good of a DE prospect in any of the 2021, 2022, or 2023 drafts.  When he has played, he has been a good run defender (run defense grades of 80.4, 84.5, and 73.9.  He hasn't been as good as a pass rusher, but not bad.  79.2 as a rookie, then 71.2 in 2021 (he only had one sack in 8 games though he had one sack called back against Atlanta on a bs unnecessary roughness call so that would have been 2, but he had 24 pressures, so he was getting 3 pressures a game) and 62.8 in three games as a rotational player in 2022 (he actually had 7 pressures in those 3 games--so he got 2 pressures a game).

 

He has been a good player.  Given his blueblood pedigree I think you could potentially get a first rounder for him.  Even if you traded him now in the offseason when trade values for players are down, you could possibly get the 2nd and 4th somebody mentioned as a hypothetical.  I think people are underselling how Chase Young is viewed throughout the league.

 

As a corollary, if you want to trade for a player, now is the time to do it--after the draft, but before camps start.  Players have arguably their lowest values right now.

Edited May 17, 2023 by philibusters

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

No one who watched him play would sign him. If another front office does sign Trai Turner they should be fired and then shot into the sun.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, philibusters said:

I actually think you could get a decent haul for Chase Young.  That said, Kevin Cole on Unexpected Points made the point on one of his podcasts, now not the time to maxmize your return in a trade.   You can get more after a player gets injured and there is an immediate need on a contender or alternatively if a team that wasn't expected to be a contended is better than expected and is suddenly a contender.  You usually get more in return once the season starts.  Right now teams are as happy with their projected 53 as they are likely going to be. Injuries will happen and a certain amount of players just won't be as good as they were hoping.

 

Chase Young was a blue chip prospect.  There hasn't been as good of a DE prospect in any of the 2021, 2022, or 2023 drafts.  When he has played, he has been a good run defender (run defense grades of 80.4, 84.5, and 73.9.  He hasn't been as good as a pass rusher, but not bad.  79.2 as a rookie, then 71.2 in 2021 (he only had one sack in 8 games though he had one sack called back against Atlanta on a bs unnecessary roughness call so that would have been 2, but he had 24 pressures, so he was getting 3 pressures a game) and 62.8 in three games as a rotational player in 2022 (he actually had 7 pressures in those 3 games--so he got 2 pressures a game).

 

He has been a good player.  Given his blueblood pedigree I think you could potentially get a first rounder for him.  Even if you traded him now in the offseason when trade values for players are down, you could possibly get the 2nd and 4th somebody mentioned as a hypothetical.  I think people are underselling how Chase Young is viewed throughout the league.

 

As a corollary, if you want to trade for a player, now is the time to do it--after the draft, but before camps start.  Players have arguably their lowest values right now.

 

My draft crush on Chase might be my all time highest. I loved him as a college player.  I still like him.  Not sure I want to trade him.  But listening to those who cover the team -- feels like they won't keep one of their edge rushers and Sweat at the moment is the one more likely to stay.     Sounds like they will be 3 D lineman in that 20 million range but not 4.   

 

I think its tough to sell any team right now to bet big on Chase coming off both a down season and a major injury.  I think it would be different if it were a minor injury but he lost a good chunk of the last two seasons.  So I do think he needs half a season to show he's back.  I'd be shocked if they would get more than a third rounder for him now.  But if shows he's the old Chase -- I'd think he'd be a first rounder plus.

 

One thing I've been wrong about him was I was fairly sold on his intangibles.  But listening to some who cover the team and especially Logan Paulsen -- I get strong vibes he's immature and not the hardest worker in the off season.   Chris Russell in particular has alluded to their being some back stories involving antics from Chase -- and that's part of the soup why they are in wait and see about him. 

 

The vibe I get is Sweat had some immaturity issues but he's matured.  Chase not so yet.  And they are hoping that a contract year fuels his motivation.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Silvernon]

Yeah, that's the toughest part of all this. Ron has alluded to wanting a certain mindset, attitude and demeanor. We see that in the players they are drafting more and more.

 

That hasn't been Chase; he is still obsessed with the spotlight without putting in the work like Terry. Chase focused on his craft like Terry has shown to be is an All-Pro player. 

 

I think they still have their fingers crossed that it will happen - and maybe the ego has been diminished and he has a massive chip on his shoulder - but they have done the 'standard steps' toward replacing him. They have a few depth guys that have done well and Henry is interesting. 

 

On tape, you sign Sweat. He can play both sides and wouldn't rule out another step for him this year. 

[kingdaddy]

9 hours ago, MartinC said:

It feels like a 7 to 8 win team to me. Which might be the worst possible outcome.

Don't sleep on the impact EB will have on the entire offense....we will surprise teams just on the presence of EB and his play calling alone. And Howell is also gonna cause problems for teams with his legs and confidence. 

[kingdaddy]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

the problem with Chase of course is he's shown no production since his rookie season and is coming off of an injury.  But if he played like his hair is on fire and looked like his old self in the first half of the season, they'd likely be able to get something good for him.  But right now I'd be surprised if we got much.

If Chase plays like his hair is on fire we are gonna be a very, very good defense and probably a very good team. They'd likely not trade him then, especially with a lame duck coaching staff that needs a winning season. He's also one of the teams most marketable players which will help draw interest in the team. I think they'd be more likely to re-sign him than trade him if he lights it up the 1st half of this coming season. I think Chase Young is one of the biggest keys to our upcoming season, just behind Howell/Brissett.

[oraphus]

regretfully Rivera isnt trading Young this year. He needs to put out the best possible team in order to have the best chance to save his job.. Just based on pedigree Young has better potential to perform as a DE on this Def than any current backup. Of course if one of the backup look lights out in training camp... anything can happen

[method man]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My draft crush on Chase might be my all time highest. I loved him as a college player.  I still like him.  Not sure I want to trade him.  But listening to those who cover the team -- feels like they won't keep one of their edge rushers and Sweat at the moment is the one more likely to stay.     Sounds like they will be 3 D lineman in that 20 million range but not 4.   

 

I think its tough to sell any team right now to bet big on Chase coming off both a down season and a major injury.  I think it would be different if it were a minor injury but he lost a good chunk of the last two seasons.  So I do think he needs half a season to show he's back.  I'd be shocked if they would get more than a third rounder for him now.  But if shows he's the old Chase -- I'd think he'd be a first rounder plus.

 

One thing I've been wrong about him was I was fairly sold on his intangibles.  But listening to some who cover the team and especially Logan Paulsen -- I get strong vibes he's immature and not the hardest worker in the off season.   Chris Russell in particular has alluded to their being some back stories involving antics from Chase -- and that's part of the soup why they are in wait and see about him. 

 

The vibe I get is Sweat had some immaturity issues but he's matured.  Chase not so yet.  And they are hoping that a contract year fuels his motivation.

Secondhand insider info but supposedly the guy reeks of weed frequently when he comes to the facility