Election 2024 & Presidential Cage Match: Dark Brandon 46 vs Felonious Farty 45

[hail2skins]

Luce on the state of the race, echoing some of the Cataggio points I posted yesterday:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/e47d0c41-8ce9-4e62-b875-bdf654a79018

[Hersh]

7 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

Or would Trump get SCOTUS to somehow invalidate the 22nd amendment? That seems more likely than him not running in 2028. 

 

That said, I still see Biden at 286ish EC at worst. And +9mil in pop vote. 

 

People ****ing hate Trump and the GOP being tied to him will make people vote against him. 

 

I think what people don't realize is that it doesn't take a high percentage of former trump voters to either vote for someone else or simply not vote for there to be huge consequences. I firmly believe NC is in play this year for Democrats for the first time since Obama won. It's crazies up and down the GOP ticket down here and the race last time was relatively close. Democrats are far more organized this go round. 

[Ball Security]

3 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

I think what people don't realize is that it doesn't take a high percentage of former trump voters to either vote for someone else or simply not vote for there to be huge consequences. I firmly believe NC is in play this year for Democrats for the first time since Obama won. It's crazies up and down the GOP ticket down here and the race last time was relatively close. Democrats are far more organized this go round. 

Yeah, I think Biden has a better chance at winning NC than Trump has picking off one of PA, MI, WI (in that order). The Governor race, reproductive rights, and changing demographics put the state in play.

 

Hopefully the Dem candidates are keeping it in their pants this go around.

[PleaseBlitz]

6 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

I think what people don't realize is that it doesn't take a high percentage of former trump voters to either vote for someone else or simply not vote for there to be huge consequences. I firmly believe NC is in play this year for Democrats for the first time since Obama won. It's crazies up and down the GOP ticket down here and the race last time was relatively close. Democrats are far more organized this go round. 

 

The same goes both ways, and the narrative seems to have taken hold that the economy is bad and everything is too expensive, even if the vast majority of traditional macro economic indicators are pretty positive.  Most people care way more about their checking account balance than anything else, so if they think it's gotten harder to make ends meet in the last 4 years, I worry. 

[hail2skins]

Cohn on the case for optimism for Biden, focusing on how he's not THAT far behind in PA/MI/WI:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/upshot/biden-polls-election-map.html?unlocked_article_code=1.vk0.ae27.r27_HaPZA6fX&smid=url-share

 

 

[Hersh]

2 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

The same goes both ways, and the narrative seems to have taken hold that the economy is bad and everything is too expensive, even if the vast majority of traditional macro economic indicators are pretty positive.  Most people care way more about their checking account balance than anything else, so if they think it's gotten harder to make ends meet in the last 4 years, I worry. 

 

Of course it goes both ways, but Biden didn't end Roe v Wade. I don't buy at all that the narrative about the economy has taken hold. The vast majority of those people claiming that economy is bad would immediately change their answer if Trump was names supreme leader tomorrow. 

Side note: Another losing issue for the GOP which is happening in a lot of states like NC, Vouchers. The lack of spending on public schools and retaining teachers will be an issue with voters come November. 

[Larry]

20 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Trump gets in and has a a gop congress; there will be no more elections.

 

19 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Stop it. There is no avenue for that happening. 

 

Just pointing out, the Supreme MAGA Court has already ruled that the constitution does not contain a right to fair elections. 

[Hersh]

5 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

Cohn on the case for optimism for Biden, focusing on how he's not THAT far behind in PA/MI/WI:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/upshot/biden-polls-election-map.html?unlocked_article_code=1.vk0.ae27.r27_HaPZA6fX&smid=url-share

 

 

 

The NYT has become a laughable paper when it comes to their political coverage.  

[hail2skins]

2 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

The NYT has become a laughable paper when it comes to their political coverage.  

Cohn is a polling guy, so I'll give him slack....even if the polls in those states were off the mark in 2016 and 2020 (I think Biden should've won in them by more than he did).

 

Kind of like Fox News obviously being biased as hell, but their polling operation is pretty solid.

[PleaseBlitz]

10 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

Of course it goes both ways, but Biden didn't end Roe v Wade. I don't buy at all that the narrative about the economy has taken hold. The vast majority of those people claiming that economy is bad would immediately change their answer if Trump was names supreme leader tomorrow. 

Side note: Another losing issue for the GOP which is happening in a lot of states like NC, Vouchers. The lack of spending on public schools and retaining teachers will be an issue with voters come November. 

 

Yes, the vast majority of those people would definitely immediately revert to "the economy is the best ever" the day Trump takes office, but I also think a small but significant percentage really believe it, and a small but significant percentage of them are persuadable voters, and a small but significant percentage of them live in swing states, which is why I think it's a problem. 

[TheGreatBuzz]

1 hour ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Trump gets in and has a a gop congress; there will be no more elections.

 

1 hour ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Stop it. There is no avenue for that happening. 

 

I usually hate his overly pessimistic predictions but on this, he's right.  IF there were a Trump presidency again with a GOP Congress, that'll be the last meaningful election. And we'll totally deserve it.

[BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen]

2 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

 

I usually hate his overly pessimistic predictions but on this, he's right.  IF there were a Trump presidency again with a GOP Congress, that'll be the last meaningful election. And we'll totally deserve it.

 

Yep, just like Nazi Germany. German citizens didn't have any experience with authoritarianism before Hitler came to power either...

[Spaceman Spiff]

2 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

 

What made it particularly bad was her level of shear stupidity. We have a booming economy and record low unemployment with massive investments in public infrastructure and yet they will tell themselves:

 

Well that's the thing...they are rooting against the economy because they can't stomach the thought that it's a good economy under a liberal Democrat.  So they'll do their best to inject uncertainty anywhere and everywhere they can so their guy can win.

 

She's intellectually obtuse.  

[BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen]

1 minute ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

Well that's the thing...they are rooting against the economy because they can't stomach the thought that it's a good economy under a liberal Democrat.  So they'll do their best to inject uncertainty anywhere and everywhere they can so their guy can win.

 

She's intellectually obtuse.  

 

Sorry, I couldn't help it...

 

[superozman]

2 hours ago, BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen said:

 

...so they aren't even being informed of the terrible things Trump says he will do in a second term. At a fundraiser over the weekend he said he would have bombed Moscow and Beijing...and that hasn't really even come out in any of the media, left- or right-wing.

.

 

This benefits him greatly.  He says this - so he looks tough on these countries, but in reality he probably wouldn't have gotten through the advisors, etc and actually did it.  But that is an area Biden lacks.  The ability for other countries to see the US as powerful, IMO.  Instead, its just signing checks and hoping it ends soon.

[PeterMP]

2 minutes ago, BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen said:

 

Yep, just like Nazi Germany. German citizens didn't have any experience with authoritarianism before Hitler came to power either...

Germany was a dictatorship (empire) before and during WWI.  WWI ended the German Empire (so about 1919).  Hitler takes power in Germany in the early 30s.  They literally had about a decade as a democracy and it wasn't very stable/peaceful during that decade.

 

(I think the election will be close where Trump will get at least 45% of the popular vote, and he doesn't need to get 50% to win.  Whether he wins will depend on what happens between now and the election.  A good and stable economy, no terrorist attacks, etc. I think will give Biden the win.  If there is a recession starting in Aug. or a pretty major terrorist attack, Trump wins.

 

I think perception of the economy will break as long at stays strong.  Especially now with the news that stores are dropping prices.  That seems to have made pretty big news.  But I think in the end, people will look at their own pocketbook.)

[Die Hard]

39 minutes ago, superozman said:

 

This benefits him greatly.  He says this - so he looks tough on these countries, but in reality he probably wouldn't have gotten through the advisors, etc and actually did it.  But that is an area Biden lacks.  The ability for other countries to see the US as powerful, IMO.  Instead, its just signing checks and hoping it ends soon.

If Biden issues empty threats, it makes him look weak.

 

If Biden issues threats and follows through, he’s a war monger.

 

He’s either genocide Joe or an anti-semite.

 

Let’s stop pretending it’s a good faith discussion.

[hail2skins]

This thread nicely sums it up:

 

I consider myself a Republican and get the appeal of the America First sentiment (even if many look past the costs of what that entails). But after 1/6/21, and after the GOP voters had other choices in the primary, we're doing this dance again?

[TheGreatBuzz]

I understand that feeling. It also makes you reevaluate how you view spending 20 years in supporting the rights that these ****tards want to throw away. I don't view military service in the same light I used to.

 

Whatever, the retirement plan is solid.

[BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen]

28 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

This thread nicely sums it up:

 

I consider myself a Republican and get the appeal of the America First sentiment (even if many look past the costs of what that entails). But after 1/6/21, and after the GOP voters had other choices in the primary, we're doing this dance again?

 

Right, it's hard to believe we even need to bring up January 6th, and harder to believe that Trump has been nominated by the GOP for the THIRD straight time.

 

I think the GOP is pretty much dead, at least the GOP that had Mitt Romney is. The GOP danced with the devil decades ago by wooing the racist white vote, which is far more prevalent that even I would have believed...and now those chickens have come home to roost. Instead of appealing to conservative virtues without the fear of others thrown in...but I guess there are really just too many hidden racists in this country.

10 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

I understand that feeling. It also makes you reevaluate how you view spending 20 years in supporting the rights that these ****tards want to throw away. I don't view military service in the same light I used to.

 

Whatever, the retirement plan is solid.

 

What's galling is that Trumpies supposedly support our military (even though Trump thinks they're losers), while supporting a crazy man who wants the US to return to the isolationism of the 1930s. Since isolationism didn't exactly work, a return to it would just make future wars even more likely.

 

And who will be paying the price for that with military service? Trumpies.

[LadySkinsFan]

1 hour ago, superozman said:

 

This benefits him greatly.  He says this - so he looks tough on these countries, but in reality he probably wouldn't have gotten through the advisors, etc and actually did it.  But that is an area Biden lacks.  The ability for other countries to see the US as powerful, IMO.  Instead, its just signing checks and hoping it ends soon.

 

You must be ****ing kidding. Trump almost ruined our relationships with numerous democratic countries. The only countries he was interested in were those governed by fascists. 

 

It's taken all of these months for Biden to repair our soured relationships. Except for the Middle East where Israel and to a lesser extent the rest of the Arab countries refuse to consider a two state solution for the Palestinians. It's basically a continuous religious war and we shouldn't be involved any more unless Israel agrees to the two state solution and stops killing Palestinians and moving in on their property. The economy is perceived weak because the corporations are making bank by increasing their prices way over their costs and they are making huge profits from We the People.

 

We wouldn't have NATO anymore if Trump had won last time, we'd have many more poor people and the economy would be horrible. The Democrats historically have always fixed the Republican con of "trickle down economics" that ruins our economy every single time the wealthy and corporations get their big tax breaks. It doesn't take much intelligence to figure it out. 

[superozman]

1 minute ago, LadySkinsFan said:

 

You must be ****ing kidding. Trump almost ruined our relationships with numerous democratic countries. The only countries he was interested in were those governed by fascists. 

 

It's taken all of these months for Biden to repair our soured relationships. Except for the Middle East where Israel and to a lesser extent the rest of the Arab countries refuse to consider a two state solution for the Palestinians. It's basically a continuous religious war and we shouldn't be involved any more unless Israel agrees to the two state solution and stops killing Palestinians and moving in on their property. The economy is perceived weak because the corporations are making bank by increasing their prices way over their costs and they are making huge profits from We the People.

 

We wouldn't have NATO anymore if Trump had won last time, we'd have many more poor people and the economy would be horrible. The Democrats historically have always fixed the Republican con of "trickle down economics" that ruins our economy every single time the wealthy and corporations get their big tax breaks. It doesn't take much intelligence to figure it out. 

 

I was making a point of one thing....your response seemed to trickle into numerous things.  Again, there is a perception that America is just signing checks and there is no threat...which arguably is how some of these started.  There would be no thread of repercussions.  Whether it works or not in the future if Trump would be elected that's another story.

[bearrock]

1 hour ago, superozman said:

 

This benefits him greatly.  He says this - so he looks tough on these countries, but in reality he probably wouldn't have gotten through the advisors, etc and actually did it.  But that is an area Biden lacks.  The ability for other countries to see the US as powerful, IMO.  Instead, its just signing checks and hoping it ends soon.

 

First, I would rather not have a president who I have to hope can be checked by his advisors from doing insane things.  Second, US president threatening to start WWIII by bombing China or Russia is not going to make other countries and ally see US as powerful, but rather a clear and present danger to dissociate from as soon as possible.  

[LadySkinsFan]

2 minutes ago, superozman said:

 

I was making a point of one thing....your response seemed to trickle into numerous things.  Again, there is a perception that America is just signing checks and there is no threat...which arguably is how some of these started.  There would be no thread of repercussions.  Whether it works or not in the future if Trump would be elected that's another story.

 

Perception of who exactly. Most of our allies, especially NATO were damned glad Biden was elected and he rebuilt our relationships with our friendly countries. That's bull**** about signing checks. 

 

The other points I wrote about are true too. 

[hail2skins]

1 hour ago, superozman said:

 

This benefits him greatly.  He says this - so he looks tough on these countries, but in reality he probably wouldn't have gotten through the advisors, etc and actually did it.  But that is an area Biden lacks.  The ability for other countries to see the US as powerful, IMO.  Instead, its just signing checks and hoping it ends soon.

But it also goes back to how fickle people are:

 

The US provides military aid to Ukraine (even if its not as much and quickly arriving as some hope)....average GOP voter: "Biden is getting us into WW 3!!"

 

Trump says he would've bombed Moscow in response to the invasion.....average GOP voter: "look at the strength Trump is showing!"

 

If you try to make sense out of it, your head hurts. Sort of like the GOP voter who complains about the "endless wars." Where were they in the mid-2000s?  Yes, calling the people who were complaining about the Iraq war then "unpatriotic."