Cooked Crack Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Special election since the last Representative got expelled from Congress. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerPacker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Larry said: I'd say this guy. And the example I'd give would be: Meh. He was Bush 2.0 where it mattered to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ixcuincle Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Wiggles Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I got a 99% Endorsement Success Rate and this **** ain't one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This gives me some hope that despite the national polling, there are a lot more voters who way outnumber those who go to rallies, that are motivated end this MAGA stuff. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmirOfShmo Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, @DCGoldPants said: This gives me some hope that despite the national polling, there are a lot more voters who way outnumber those who go to rallies, that are motivated end this MAGA stuff. Haven't we seen this movie before this NY election? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Where does this put the GOP margin at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said: This gives me some hope that despite the national polling, there are a lot more voters who way outnumber those who go to rallies, that are motivated end this MAGA stuff. I think with the last several non-Presidential elections we've seen that the Republicans don't do too well. I think Trump has built a base that is loyal to him but doesn't really show up for others. But people will turn out to vote against the GOP because of him even when he's not directly on the ballot. I think Presidential election will be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LadySkinsFan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Only if she's wearing a Dark Brandon t shirt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, PeterMP said: think Presidential election will be close. I know I'm considered always the hopeful optimist here but I think it's going to be a blue blowout. People are starting to show they've had enough MAGA dysfunction. 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said: Where does this put the GOP margin at? 219-212 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FootballZombie Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Another election, another drastic democratic over performance. Perfectly in line with what we have been seeing over the last decade. Even ignoring the financial problems that are about to roll in Trump's campaign direction, I'm still calling a Biden Beatdown. He will take Trump behind the woodshed. Screw the polls in an environment where we have been under a year long surge of republican spending and messaging due to being the only primary in town. Actual results of elections show this is clearly leaning in one direction. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, FootballZombie said: Even ignoring the financial problems that are about to roll in Trump's campaign direction, I'm still calling a Biden Beatdown. He will take Trump behind the woodshed. And those financial issues are even worse in addition to the money Trump requires to run while also fending off multiple trials, Biden supposedly has an enormous war chest he’s not yet started to tap (or at least not really) All signs point to Biden winning in a dominating fashion. The only thing not going he’s way is polling, but that’s been explained enough that I’ll just say it doesn’t appear to be an actual issue. My only reservation is that the normal rules and ways of analyzing politics never seem to apply to Trump. And the dems have a confidence I don’t like (just seems to me people that go about themselves with overconfidence wind up being wrong… reminds me of 2016) I’m a contrarian better. Betting against the public is a winning strategy. When everyone says it’ll go one way, it often doesn’t. The boys in the desert fund their oasis by knowing the public is often wrong. So that part of things makes me feel uneasy. the next several months are going to be interesting and terrifying at the same time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I think Biden will again with the national popular election by several million votes. That does not matter. Accordingly, national polls do not matter. This election is being held in 6 states that matter. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. I personally tend to think that Biden has a decent advantage in Michigan given how hard the auto unions have sided with him. The others are probably pure toss ups. A lot is still left to happen. Trump has multiple court cases that may or may not be decided between now and November. One or both of them could have a big-time gaffe that matters. One or both could have a medical event. Some national emergency could happen. Trump will probably cheat somehow. Biden will probably get impeached for no reason based in reality. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 40 minutes ago, Jumbo said: 219-212 219-213 when he (Souzzi) takes office though. Which means only 3 renegade House Republicans can shut down any looney town move by MAGA. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) 23 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: This election is being held in 6 states that matter. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. I personally tend to think that Biden has a decent advantage in Michigan given how hard the auto unions have sided with him. The others are probably pure toss ups. something we touch on from time to time, but don’t think we’ve ever done a deep dive on it all, is that there are several states that changed their election laws/rules and it seems to me (and to others that I consider to usually be objective and at least somewhat smart) that the changes make it easier to do what they were trying to do in 2020 (throw votes out, or throw results out, but specifically to remove the (supposedly) by partisan way of reviewing these things and consolidating that power to, say, a single person like a person appointed by the governor (state AG for instance)) Arizona is one of them. There are others, but I’m pretty sure Arizona is one of them. the Trump team was unable to navigate that system to get the outcomes they wanted. They’ve changed it wherever they can to try to “fix” that. That’s a wildcard I don’t know that anyone has fully understood and laid out in a clean way that is easy to follow. It certainly seems scary from what little I understand. Edited February 14 by tshile 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, tshile said: something we touch on from time to time, but don’t think we’ve ever done a deep dive on it all, is that there are several states that changed their election laws/rules and it seems to me (and to others that I consider to usually be objective and at least somewhat smart) that the changes make it easier to do what they were trying to do in 2020 (throw votes out, or throw results out, but specifically to remove the (supposedly) by partisan way of reviewing these things and consolidating that power to, say, a single person like a person appointed by the governor (state AG for instance)) Arizona is one of them. There are others, but I’m pretty sure Arizona is one of them. the Trump team was unable to navigate that system to get the outcomes they wanted. They’ve changed it wherever they can to try to “fix” that. That’s a wildcard I don’t know that anyone has fully understood and laid out in a clean way that is easy to follow. It certainly seems scary from what little I understand. This is a good point, and one that I considered mentioning, although I was focused on Georgia. Georgia has a GOP governor, a GOP legislature (both houses) and a culture where it would be totally acceptable to disenfranchise black voters as much as they can legally get away with. I'm just not 100% sure Brian Kemp will try to help Trump all that much given their history, but I guess I just assume all southern states will do everything they can to thwart the black vote. Arizona has a Democrat gov and GOP legislature (although it's close). AZ's SecState (who is nominally in charge of elections) is a Dem who won in 2022 based on a commitment to protecting elections against the likes of Kari Lake. So I'm a little bit less concerned about AZ, but for sure the AZ GOP will try everything they can. Just to round out the other swing states. Wisconsin I think tends to lean slightly right, but the recent WI Supreme Court election went solidly for the Dem, largely based on abortion rights. Pennsylvania is a must-win for Biden, and he'll spend a ton of time and money there. Philly is once again the most important city for this election (possibly tied with ATL). Nevada I don't have a sense for. You made another good point about the differences in the size of their respective war chests, with Biden having a huge advantage right now over Trump. That said, I expect it to close thanks to billionaires who just want lower taxes coming around to Trump. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) 1 hour ago, PleaseBlitz said: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. This is correct. I think from yesterday, PA is looking to be tired of the MAGA stuff. Arizona has rejected it 2 elections in a row now. Are they going to go back to Lake and Donny? I don't know. Michigan is hard because Whitmer is pretty popular but Biden isn't. Neither is Trump either. But he is more than Biden there I think. Can she make a difference? Nevada I actually feel pretty good about. Georgia I have no idea. Republican Governor but 2 Dem Senators right now who won't be on the ballot? Maybe they like Kemp more than the GOP there. Wisconsin I have no clue about. How did Ron Johnson win again last time? Either way, I'd focus a lot of effort in these States and not waste more than visits to places like Florida or Texas where it's like Charlie Brown and the football now. Edited February 14 by @DCGoldPants 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Aw but I really want to see Texas turn blue just for one election cycle the Fox News outrage will be must watch if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, PleaseBlitz said: I think Biden will again with the national popular election by several million votes. That does not matter. Accordingly, national polls do not matter. This election is being held in 6 states that matter. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. I personally tend to think that Biden has a decent advantage in Michigan given how hard the auto unions have sided with him. The others are probably pure toss ups. A lot is still left to happen. Trump has multiple court cases that may or may not be decided between now and November. One or both of them could have a big-time gaffe that matters. One or both could have a medical event. Some national emergency could happen. Trump will probably cheat somehow. Biden will probably get impeached for no reason based in reality. Muslims upset over Gaza won’t vote for Biden. Doesn’t mean they will vote Trump either. They could site out or vote 3rd party. If the entire Muslim bloc does that, that would be more than the entire amount Biden won by in 2020. That would tip Michigan to Donny. Joe is going to have to quell all those various Dem voters upset with and get them to suck it in and vote for him again. With those voters eye on third parties or staying home; if they actually do that, Trump will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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