Election 2024 & Presidential Cage Match: Dark Brandon 46 vs Felonious Farty 45

[PokerPacker]

On 10/29/2023 at 4:19 PM, China said:

"But … people in politics can be very disloyal."

Says the man that betrayed the country he swore an oath to.

 

6 hours ago, The Evil Genius said:

Trump has been in an increasing mental decline for several years. Slurring words, confused about who was/is President,  etc.

Inability to lift a simple glass of water to his mouth with one hand.

[Larry]

58 minutes ago, PokerPacker said:

Inability to lift a simple glass of water to his mouth with one hand

 

 

 

[GhostofSparta]

6 hours ago, tshile said:

Need people to drop out. Coalesce around Haley. 
 

they won’t but that would be the path forward beyond trump. 

 

3 hours ago, tshile said:

im not trying to convince the tailgate crowd to like her 😂 

 

just pointing out she probably makes the most sense to try to win the nomination from Trump

 

(not even saying she will - just that of the other options she’s the one ascending and seems to have the best chance)

As a current RINO, I may not be the best qualified to weigh in on the current Republican cluster****, but I think you have FAR more faith in Haley having any kind of real chance as a leader in the party then I do. Most of my Republican family members certainly pay lip service to supporting non-white men...but only up to a certain extent. I remember Republicans making a big deal about nominating black congressman Byron Donalds for speaker during/after the Jordan debacle (specifically to call the Dems racist for not voting for him despite, you know, Hakeem Jeffries being their unanimous nominee for like, 20 some ballots by this point), but instead settled for generic white guy Mike Johnson without giving Daniels even a single floor vote to fail like McCarthy, Jordan, or Scalise. Or how they let Michael Steele be the RNC chair for a couple of years until he made Rush Limbaugh mad and had to be pushed aside for another white guy (Reince Preibus).

 

Who knows, maybe the party that let the Tea Party/MAGA wing of the party take control and is having no problem letting their bigotry freak flag fly is suddenly willing to let a non-white woman named Nimarata with Sikh parents be in charge of their Neo-Confederate party, but I kind of have my doubts. I feel like she's only supported as a semi-protest against the MAGA crowd to pull the "black friend" card as long as she's not an actual threat to Trump's (and his large voting base's) power. I have similar suspicions about Tim Scott, btw. I think if either of them had an actual shot at usurping Trump in 2024, MAGAs would burn down the party before voting for either one and there wouldn't be enough "moderate" Republicans willing to fight back for either candidate with any actual effort. Especially after those lunatics bounced Liz ****ing Cheney and Mitt ****ing Romney from the party for not being MAGA enough to their cult leader. I just suspect they wouldn't let a woman (especially a non-white one) with a "weird" name and a "confirmed bachelor" black man (but he has a girlfriend! She's just in Canada, that's why you never met her, honest! She's also a model, but you wouldn't know any of her work, so don't ask!) anywhere hear the actual lead of "their" party.

 

I know the bar of "better than Trump" is buried so low in the ground that you have to put a DeSantis level of effort into trying to crawl under that, and he still embarrassed himself trying. But unless Trump dies in the next 8 months, the only chance either one of Haley/Scott have power is if Trump picks one as his VP, and you'll have to forgive my disbelief that Trump will make anybody other than another ineffectual white dude as his VP.

[hail2skins]

I actually do think Trump is going to pick a woman as VP. Maybe Stefanik, Noem, Katie Britt, heck, maybe even Haley. No chance to MTG or Lake.

[China]

Donald Trump (still) can’t find Hungary on a map

 

Someone get Donald Trump a map!

 

Less than a week after the former U.S. president confused Hungary and Turkey — calling Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán the leader of Turkey — Trump got Hungary’s borders all wrong.

 

“Did anybody ever hear of Viktor Orbán? He’s the head of Hungary. Hungary fronts on both Ukraine and Russia,” Trump said on Sunday during a rally in Sioux City, Iowa.

 

While this time Trump did match the leader to the correct country, Hungary does not border Russia. The countries are about 1,000 kilometers apart at their closest point.

 

This was not the first time Trump has implied Hungary borders Russia, as he made the same mistake at a rally last week in New Hampshire.

 

The Trump-Orbán love story is not a new one, but the relationship has been blossoming of late amid Orbán’s isolation on the European stage.

 

On Sunday, Trump called Orbán a “very powerful player” and a “very tough guy,” praising the Hungarian leader for not allowing migrants into his country.

 

In turn, Orbán has endorsed Trump’s campaign, even sporting the Republican candidate’s trademark merch online.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[LadySkinsFan]

42 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

I actually do think Trump is going to pick a woman as VP. Maybe Stefanik, Noem, Katie Britt, heck, maybe even Haley. No chance to MTG or Lake.

 

He needs another white male slug for his VP choice. The Fascists didn't have control yet when McCain picked Palin and they'll never allow a mere woman who might be a chance to be president. 

[Destino]

The latest chapter in big boots, little man.

 

 

[tshile]

@GhostofSparta

 

oh but you are seriously underestimating the power of republicans being able to say they put the first (ethnic) woman in the White House as president 
 

after the whole “it’s time” 2016 horse ****, it would be glorious

 

and I happen to agree with them on that specific item 

Edited October 31, 2023 by tshile

[88Comrade2000]

You put a woman or minority at the top of the gop ticket and gop turnout decreases.

[Cooked Crack]

Just now, 88Comrade2000 said:

You put a woman or minority at the top of the gop ticket and gop turnout decreases.

"The GOP has gone woke"

[The Evil Genius]

I hope it is Stefanik. She's dumber than Palin (and that's saying something).

 

 

 

The typical family could afford a 725k house, huh? 

 

 

[hail2skins]

This chart from a recent NBC News story backs Stefaniks claim:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna120801

 

When you take into account income levels, house prices, and interest rates, housing affordability is comparable to the early 80s, when interest rates were 18 percent.

 

I think Covid is going to result in two one-term presidents. Trump because he was too much of a buffoon to know how to properly respond from a PR perspective, and Biden from dealing with the inflationary aftereffects from all the stimulus (some of which is on him).

[dfitzo53]

I really wish that article had more information about their graphs and how they developed them. In 2020 the U.S. median household income was around 70-75k. You are not affording a 750k house on a 75k household income. 

 

The graph also assumes the typical family is prepared to make a 20% down payment, which is an absolutely bonkers assumption. Their definition of afford seems to be, "if we spot you the entire down payment, is the monthly payment less than 30% of your household income?"

 

Even that is working some black magic behind the scenes. A 750k house at 3.99% interest rates is going to cost you easily over 3k per month, well outside the range of what the median income family can afford. 

 

(This doesn't even get into their apparent assumption that the average family has great credit.)

 

tl;dr: I call massive amounts of bull**** on that article unless they can show their work somehow. 

[hail2skins]

1 hour ago, dfitzo53 said:

I really wish that article had more information about their graphs and how they developed them. In 2020 the U.S. median household income was around 70-75k. You are not affording a 750k house on a 75k household income. 

 

The graph also assumes the typical family is prepared to make a 20% down payment, which is an absolutely bonkers assumption. Their definition of afford seems to be, "if we spot you the entire down payment, is the monthly payment less than 30% of your household income?"

 

Even that is working some black magic behind the scenes. A 750k house at 3.99% interest rates is going to cost you easily over 3k per month, well outside the range of what the median income family can afford.

I'm not sure what they use for lending standards these days. I thought the rule of thumb was they didn't want your house payment to be more than 35-40 percent of your total gross income, right? Did that 35-40 percent just include P&I, or were taxes and insurance included too?

 

I went to Zillow and plugged in a 725K house at a 2.68 percent rate, which is where they were in late 2020, according to the article. The P&I on a 580K loan (which would assume 20 percent down) was 2346 per month. Which is 37.5 percent of a $6250 monthly gross income ($75K per year)

 

I know this is oversimplifying it, but.......

[dfitzo53]

1 minute ago, hail2skins said:

I'm not sure what they use for lending standards these days. I thought the rule of thumb was they didn't want your house payment to be more than 35-40 percent of your total gross income, right? Did that 35-40 percent just include P&I, or were taxes and insurance included too?

 

I went to Zillow and plugged in a 725K house at a 2.68 percent rate, which is where they were in late 2020, according to the article. The P&I on a 580K loan (which would assume 20 percent down) was 2346 per month. Which is 37.5 percent of a $6250 monthly gross income ($75K per year)

 

I know this is oversimplifying it, but.......

I don't know for sure, but the article specifically cites the 30% number unless I read it wrong. Even without taking into account taxes and insurance you aren't meeting that threshold on 75k. Once you get into the real costs of owning a home, those families would financially ruin themselves trying to make that happen. (And would almost certainly be turned down anyway.)

 

Also, just to be clear, I'm not debating that houses were way more affordable a few years ago. That's self-evident anyway. 

 

This article just strikes me as very poor journalism either by somebody who doesn't actually understand the numbers, or somebody who handcrafted a graph to very narrowly support a sensational headline. 

 

If you lined up all the households in the US in 2020 and asked them whether they could afford to buy a 750k house, how many would say yes? 1 or 2 in 10? Maybe 3 if you really stretch? That's not what typical means. 

[bearrock]

Median income has not changed much since 2020.  Median housing price has gone up.  Interest rate obviously shot up.  So yes, the house the median income earner can buy today is much cheaper than 2020 (I don't know whether the 725 vs 375 actually bears out on the math). 

 

But a quick look around the world shows that such inflation/stagnant income/higher interest is a global post-covid problem, not a US president problem.  Good luck convincing the average voters though 

[LadySkinsFan]

Since my Social Security COLA is only going to be 3.2 % next year, the Federal Reserve needs to lower interest rates because inflation is going down.

 

Now, I can tell you that from my dollar buying power, costs are still high even though supply chain problems are largely solved, the chicken problem is solved (egg and chicken prices have gone down), my rent skyrocketed $200 (more than this years COLA), and gas is still high.

 

And why do we still have high prices? Inflated interest rates when they don't have to be so, and corporate greed. The last couple of years, when there were some problems, costs rose. Now that issues are solved, corporations figured that we got used to higher prices, so why lower than? That's greed. 

[The Evil Genius]

I suspect high prices still exist because consumers showed they would pay them during the supply shortages. 

 

Also,  "the average" families making 75k a year were not affording 725k housing in 2020. Median house prices were roughly 330k that year. 

 

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by The Evil Genius

[Darrell Green Fan]

3 hours ago, dfitzo53 said:

I really wish that article had more information about their graphs and how they developed them. In 2020 the U.S. median household income was around 70-75k. You are not affording a 750k house on a 75k household income. 

 

The graph also assumes the typical family is prepared to make a 20% down payment, which is an absolutely bonkers assumption. Their definition of afford seems to be, "if we spot you the entire down payment, is the monthly payment less than 30% of your household income?"

 

Even that is working some black magic behind the scenes. A 750k house at 3.99% interest rates is going to cost you easily over 3k per month, well outside the range of what the median income family can afford. 

 

(This doesn't even get into their apparent assumption that the average family has great credit.)

 

tl;dr: I call massive amounts of bull**** on that article unless they can show their work somehow. 

How many homes are first time homebuyers?  I honestly have no idea but that 20% figure I would assume comes from people purchasing their 2nd or 3rd home.   With the sale of their previous home they can come up with more than 20% which offsets all the first time home buyer's numbers into the figures to bring the overall figure to 20%..  

[Cooked Crack]

 

[tshile]

6 hours ago, dfitzo53 said:

I really wish that article had more information about their graphs and how they developed them. In 2020 the U.S. median household income was around 70-75k. You are not affording a 750k house on a 75k household income. 

 

The graph also assumes the typical family is prepared to make a 20% down payment, which is an absolutely bonkers assumption. Their definition of afford seems to be, "if we spot you the entire down payment, is the monthly payment less than 30% of your household income?"

 

Even that is working some black magic behind the scenes. A 750k house at 3.99% interest rates is going to cost you easily over 3k per month, well outside the range of what the median income family can afford. 

 

(This doesn't even get into their apparent assumption that the average family has great credit.)

 

tl;dr: I call massive amounts of bull**** on that article unless they can show their work somehow. 

well. You may be short selling the impact of interest rates. 
 

Quote

The difference between a monthly mortgage payment at 3% and one at 8% can be staggering. For a median-priced home that costs $416,000 with a 20% down payment, your monthly mortgage with 3% interest is $1,403. At 8% interest it's $2,441.

and they used the same measurement of 20% down and <30% of monthly income 

 

700k seems high to me too but house around here have been 600k-1.5 mil for along time and they’re occupied by regular people, no one doing anything fancy. There’s a housing boom here they can’t build them fast enough. People keep buying them. So the number seems high but… tracks with what I’ve been seeing for a long time now. 

The context that’s lost here is that the housing market was out of control, inflation was out of control, and raising rates to make it more expensive to drive down inflation was intentional…

 

the desired effect was to cool things off

Also making it harder - *everything* is significantly more expensive now. 
 

Without serious wage growth I’m not sure the traditional “under 30% of your monthly income” even makes sense for most people. Might need to lower it to 20% to accommodate how much more the rest of life costs. 

[The Evil Genius]

Houses might be worth that tshile, but are they all new? Or have people been living there for several+ years and purchased when the housing prices there weren't out of line with the median income in that area? Or maybe the median family income in your area isn't 75k. 

 

Personally, I think this idea that an average family could afford a 725k house in 2020 (or Jan 2021) is such a blatant lie by Stefanik. That, and/or she is dumb as I said.  

 

Should also note that this is pretax 75k median income. 

Edited October 31, 2023 by The Evil Genius

[EmirOfShmo]

4 hours ago, LadySkinsFan said:

Since my Social Security COLA is only going to be 3.2 % next year, the Federal Reserve needs to lower interest rates because inflation is going down.

 

Now, I can tell you that from my dollar buying power, costs are still high even though supply chain problems are largely solved, the chicken problem is solved (egg and chicken prices have gone down), my rent skyrocketed $200 (more than this years COLA), and gas is still high.

 

And why do we still have high prices? Inflated interest rates when they don't have to be so, and corporate greed. The last couple of years, when there were some problems, costs rose. Now that issues are solved, corporations figured that we got used to higher prices, so why lower than? That's greed. 

 

Gas prices have been dropping since the end of summer. I just paid $2.89/gallon for regular gas at a local Costco in Richmond. What I've noticed in the grocery store is that package sizes have shrunk & the price per item has gone up: i.e., 13.5 oz box instead of 16 oz with the same or higher price. 

[The Evil Genius]

My house currently runs 900k-ish. We bought for 580k (we are solid middle upper class anywhere not called the Bay Area). I also have neighbors 2 houses up who paid less than 100k since they have been there for decades. And despite its poor upkeep I am sure there house would easily sell for 600-700k as a major fixer upper. Can't imagine someone making 75k affording it..even in 2020 with sub 3% loans. 

Edited October 31, 2023 by The Evil Genius

[tshile]

2 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

Houses might be worth that tshile, but are they all new? Or have people been living there for several+ years and purchased when the housing prices there weren't out of line with the median income in that area? Or maybe the median family income in your area isn't 75k. 

 

Personally, I think this idea that an average family could afford a 725k house in 2020 (or Jan 2021) is such a blatant lie by Stefanik. That, and/or she is dumb as I said.  

in my area new SFH on like 1/5 of an acre, roughly 2500-3000 sqft, 2 car garage, starts around 700k and goes over 1 mil real quick. Having the basement finished, exact location, how nice the lot is (flat vs hilly), can all determine how high above 700k it goes. 
 

🤷‍♂️ I agree it seems way too high. 
 

Something doesn’t seem right about it. 
 

i also have no idea how a 700k mortgage works. Despite my homes current value and what we spent to build it, i have never had a mortgage for more than the limit of a conventional loan (think it’s 450k now?)