Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[China]

How many more tanks can Russia have: Expert's assessment

 

The Russian Federation is replenishing its tank fleet significantly slower than the Ukrainian Armed Forces are destroying them. In a month, the Russian army can receive approximately 70 tanks, according to the article by RBC-Ukraine "War of attrition - How much resources Russia has, will they suffice for a protracted war."

 

As mentioned in the article, there is a significant misconception regarding how many tanks Russia still has in storage. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) indicated that as of the beginning of February 2022, Moscow had 10,000 tanks in storage, excluding the old T-55 and T-62 tanks. This year, the IISS states that Russia currently has around 2,000 tanks in operational condition. On hold, there may be a maximum of 5,000 tanks of all types, including T-55 and T-62.

 

The real question lies in how many of these tanks are operational and can move and fire, as opposed to being scrap metal. According to Russian norms, assembling one fully functional tank requires components from three others. This means that the 5,000 tanks in storage at the beginning of this year could indicate that Russians can assemble around 1,500 to 2,000 operational tanks in addition to what they currently have.

 

Some evidence suggests that the aggressor is already experiencing a shortage of operational tank equipment for active offensive actions. For example, in the Kupiansk direction, where the enemy has become more active, they have refrained from deploying tank units, even though they have them. Instead, infantry is mainly engaged in battles, which, according to the Kremlin's logic, is a less valuable resource. Tanks are used primarily to support combat operations and as armored artillery.

 

Finally, the Russians have the potential to produce new machines and restore old ones. The Economist reported that in 2022, Moscow restored around 45 demothballed tanks per month, and this year, they planned to increase production to 110 units. However, this target was not achieved.

 

Ivan Kyrychevskyi, an expert from the Defense Express Media & Consulting Company, says the Russians may be receiving up to 70 tanks of all types each month. This includes, firstly, 10-15 units of new T-90M Proryv tanks produced at the main tank factory in Russia, "Uralvagonzavod." Secondly, the repair and modernization of old T-72B and T-80BV tanks from storage, up to 50 units per month. Thirdly, the restoration of T-55 and T-62 tanks at the 103rd armored repair plant in Transbaikal, which amounts to about 10 machines per month.

 

In essence, the Russians are replenishing their tank equipment much slower than the Ukrainian Armed Forces are destroying them, which means that this resource for the enemy is depleting.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[LD0506]

[TradeTheBeal!]

 

[China]

Kim Jong Un vows full support for Russia as Putin pledges space tech for North Korea

 

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un promised his full support for Russian President Vladimir Putin in what he called a "fight against imperialism" in a summit in Russia, saying the countries' relations are a "top priority."

 

Putin offered North Korea technological assistance to launch a satellite into space and said there are "possibilities" for military cooperation between them.

 

The meeting, which lasted more than four hours Wednesday in Russia's Far East, showed how geopolitical tensions have brought the two neighbors isolated by the West into closer alignment. It comes as the United States has warned that Putin and Kim could strike an arms deal that would provide North Korean munitions for Russia's war in Ukraine.

 

South Korea's intelligence agency believes that Russia has already raised with North Korea the possibility of three-way naval exercises, including China.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[FootballZombie]

Russian space tech aint exactly at a highwater mark right now considering their lander did what is known as an "epic fail" and got some facetime w/ sweet lady moon like a month go.

[China]

Ukrainian Bombers Firing Western Cruise Missiles Have Knocked Out A Russian Submarine

 

Russian admirals knew they had a problem.

 

This summer, the Ukrainian air force’s sole bomber unit—the 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade—began arming its 1970s-vintage Sukhoi Su-24s with British-made Storm Shadows and ex-French SCALPs: stealthy, subsonic cruise missiles each with a nearly 200-mile range.

 

Su-24s firing Storm Shadows and SCALPs began plucking at the Russian army’s logistical system in occupied southern Ukraine, striking depots, repair yards and bridges.

 

The staff of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet—30 large warships scattered across ports in southern Russia and occupied Crimea—sensed their vessels might be the next targets. They began painting elaborate camouflage on some ships, hoping the paint would confuse the cruise missiles’ imaging-infrared sensors.

 

The admirals were right to be worried. They were wrong to assume a little paint would protect their ships. On Wednesday morning, Ukrainian bomber crews fired a volley of Storm Shadow or SCALP cruise missiles at the Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol, in southern Crimea.

 

Ukrainian forces already had cleared a path for the missiles by blowing up, with a modified navy anti-ship missile, the Russian air force’s long-range S-400 air-defense battery in western Crimea—and by sending commandos to dismantle Russian sensors on a pair of captured Ukrainian oil platforms in the waters west of Crimea.

 

 

There was no stopping the 7th TAB’s cruise missiles as they streaked right through the remains of Russia’s Crimean air-defenses on Wednesday and struck a drydock belonging to the Black Sea Fleet’s 13th Ship Repair Plant in Sevastopol.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Ukraine-Russia war – live: Kyiv ‘retakes village near Bakhmut’ from Putin’s forces after striking Crimea

 

Ukraine claims to have retaken control of a village near Bakhmut as fierce fighting continues in the area.

 

Hannah Maliar, deputy defence minister, said her forces now control the eastern village of Andriivka and that the army was "securing our positions" in the wider Bakhmut area.

 

A sophisticated Russian air defence system has been destroyed by Ukraine in an attack on the occupied Crimea region, security sources say.

 

Ukraine’s security service (SBU) and navy carried out the attack on a Russian facility near Yevpatoriya using cruise missiles and drones, a Ukrainian intelligence source said.

 

“The drones focused on the air defence systems and their radars, the source said. “After disabling the radar stations, the navy units hit the S300 and S400 ‘Triumph’ systems, that is worth $1.2bn, by two Neptune cruise missiles," the source said.

 

Earlier, Ukraine targeted a Russian navy ship in the Black Sea using a barrage of sea drones, according to Russia. Another 11 drones were shot down by Russian air defences over Crimea, Moscow said.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Gurgeh]

8 hours ago, China said:

Ukraine-Russia war – live: Kyiv ‘retakes village near Bakhmut’ from Putin’s forces after striking Crimea

 

Ukraine claims to have retaken control of a village near Bakhmut as fierce fighting continues in the area.

 

Hannah Maliar, deputy defence minister, said her forces now control the eastern village of Andriivka and that the army was "securing our positions" in the wider Bakhmut area.

 

A sophisticated Russian air defence system has been destroyed by Ukraine in an attack on the occupied Crimea region, security sources say.

 

Ukraine’s security service (SBU) and navy carried out the attack on a Russian facility near Yevpatoriya using cruise missiles and drones, a Ukrainian intelligence source said.

 

“The drones focused on the air defence systems and their radars, the source said. “After disabling the radar stations, the navy units hit the S300 and S400 ‘Triumph’ systems, that is worth $1.2bn, by two Neptune cruise missiles," the source said.

 

Earlier, Ukraine targeted a Russian navy ship in the Black Sea using a barrage of sea drones, according to Russia. Another 11 drones were shot down by Russian air defences over Crimea, Moscow said.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

That air defense system supposedly cost over a billion dollars; I'm not sure how much of it they destroyed but it'll be expensive to replace. Apparently the AA system had been in action the night before shooting down some of the missiles targetting the ships and subs in Sevastopol, and run low on ammo to defend itself the next day.

[Long n Left]

The new Russian military command

 

 

[MrSilverMaC]

BBC Link
 

A Russian pilot tried to shoot down an RAF surveillance plane after believing he had permission to fire, the BBC has learned.

 

The pilot fired two missiles, the first of which missed rather than malfunctioned as claimed at the time.

Russia had claimed the incident last September was caused by a "technical malfunction".

The UK's Ministry of Defence (MoD) publicly accepted the Russian explanation.

But now three senior Western defence sources with knowledge of the incident have told the BBC that Russian communications intercepted by the RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft give a very different account from the official version.

The RAF plane - with a crew of up to 30 - was flying a surveillance mission over the Black Sea in international airspace on 29 September last year when it encountered two Russian SU-27 fighter jets.

 

The intercepted communications show that one of the Russian pilots thought he had been given permission to target the British aircraft, following an ambiguous command from a Russian ground station.

However, the second Russian pilot did not. He remonstrated and swore at his wingman when he fired the first missile.

The Rivet Joint is loaded with sensors to intercept communications. The RAF crew would have been able to listen in to the incident which could have resulted in their own deaths. 

The MoD will not release details of those communications.

Responding to these new revelations an MoD spokesperson said: "Our intent has always been to protect the safety of our operations, avoid unnecessary escalation and inform the public and international community."

What really happened 

As the two Russian SU-27s approached the RAF spy plane, they received a communication from their ground station controller. 

 

One Western source told the BBC the words they received were to the effect of "you have the target".

This ambiguous language was interpreted by one of the Russian pilots as permission to fire.

The loose language appears to have shown a high degree of unprofessionalism by those involved, sources said. In contrast, Nato pilots use very precise language when asking for and receiving permission to fire. 

The Russian pilot released an air-to-air missile, which successfully launched but failed to lock on to its target, the BBC has been told. It was a miss, not a malfunction. 

Defence sources have told the BBC that a row then broke out between the two Russian pilots. 

The pilot of the second SU-27 did not think they had been given permission to fire. 

 

He is said to have sworn at his comrade, effectively asking him what he thought he was doing.

Yet the first pilot still released another missile. 

We had been told that the second missile simply fell from the wing - suggesting the weapon either malfunctioned or that the launch was aborted.

….

 

more at link.

[TradeTheBeal!]

Bummer.

 

 

[Gurgeh]

5 hours ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

Bummer.

 

 

 

 

He's a wonderful human being...

 

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-ramzan-kadyrov-critically-ill-report-1827514

 

"Kadyrov was also accused earlier this week of murdering his personal physician and former Chechen deputy prime minister, Elkhan Suleymanov, who the Chechen head reportedly blamed for his sudden worsening health. According to the Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, which claims to have inside information from Russian security forces, Kadyrov accused Suleymanov of poisoning him and was rumored to have buried the doctor alive."

[tshile]

Hah I guess that’s the problem with poisoning 

[Larry]

2 hours ago, tshile said:

Hah I guess that’s the problem with poisoning 

 

 

[MrSilverMaC]

Yahoo News
 

Ukraine ‘likely’ behind attack on Wagner forces in Sudan — report
 

 

Ukrainian special services are likely responsible for a series of strikes on Wagner Groupmercenary forces in Sudan, CNN reported on Sept. 19, citing a Ukrainian source.

The attacks occurred two days after the mercenaries delivered a large batch of weapons to Sudan, says the report.

 

A Ukrainian military source described the operation as the work of a "non-Sudanese military". When asked if Ukraine was behind the attacks, the source only responded that "Ukrainian special services were likely responsible."

 

 

——————————-

 

 

russia seriously underestimated Ukraine’s resourcefulness and willingness to punch them in the mouth on whatever front they can manage.

[China]

Russian Troops Reportedly Abandon Bakhmut Post Amid 'Hysterical' Orders

 

Russian troops and prominent milibloggers are saying that the Kremlin is giving out "ill-conceived and unsupported" orders to urgently regain territory south of Bakhmut that was recently captured by Ukraine.

 

In a video published to social media, members of Russia's 1442nd Regiment, a mobilized group from the Altai Krai region, said that they chose to abandon their military equipment near the village of Klishchiivka—a town roughly four miles southwest of Bakhmut that was reclaimed by Kyiv earlier this week—after being told to attack in the direction of the Dontesk city to reclaim lost territory.

 

The footage was shared to X, formerly Twitter, by imprisoned Russian ultranationalist Igor Girkin, and cited in the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) latest assessment on the war in Ukraine. According to ISW's report, the Russian servicemen in the video complain of men being deployed to the front line without functional ammunition, and that the regiment is suffering from "low morale" after hearing reports of Ukrainian troops destroying other Russian regiments in the area.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Cooked Crack]

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

Ouch.

 

 

[Die Hard]

26 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

Ouch.

 

 

 

[Gurgeh]

3 hours ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

Ouch.

 

 

 

Over the last month, the Ukrainians have taken out two of the supposed six missile defense systems protecting Crimea, so there are some gaps in the coverage. Hopefully there'll be more strikes until the systems get replaced

 

[China]

Biden agrees to send long-range missiles to Ukraine

 

President Joe Biden promised his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that the United States will soon provide Kyiv with a small number of long-range missiles to help its war with Russia, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

 

Biden made the pledge to Zelenskyy during the Ukrainian leader’s visit to the White House on Thursday, fulfilling a long-held wish by Kyiv, according to the officials who like others for this story were granted anonymity to speak about private conversations.

 

The Army Tactical Missile Systems will likely be delivered to Ukraine in the coming weeks. The White House declined to comment on the matter

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Fergasun]

UK (Kentucky) Professor at Patterson School of Diplomacy recently visited Ukraine and blogged about it. 

 

 

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2023/09/ukraine-diary-1-getting-there-is-half-the-fun

 

It will be multi-part, but I expect a good read from a Western point of view.  LGM is a left-leaning blog...

[Gurgeh]

(What's a little more significant about this breakthrough is that the Russians had sent elite reinforcements to Verbove about a week ago to prevent this from happening.)

 

Ukrainian forces have broken through in Verbove, top general says | CNN

 

The general leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive along the southern front line says his forces have broken through in Verbove – and predicts an even bigger breakthrough to come.

“On the left flank [near Verbove] we have a breakthrough and we continue to advance further,” Oleksandr Tarnavsky told CNN Senior International Correspondent Frederik Pleitgen during an interview on Friday, though he conceded his troops were moving slower than anticipated.

 

...At the beginning of September Ukrainian forces said they had taken the village of Robotyne and were pushing east toward the village of Novoprokopivka. Soldiers said they expected battles for control of high ground to the south and east of the village as they approached the next layer of Russian defenses. Verbove is a few miles east from Robotyne.

However, Tarnavsky told CNN he believed the big breakthrough of the counteroffensive would be if Ukraine could take Tokmak, a strategic hub for Russia, which is its first major target in its fight in the south.

 

 

[PleaseBlitz]

LawyersGunsMoney about to be the name of my fantasy football team. 

[China]

It's a kayak with a grenade launcher. And it could be game-changer in Ukraine.

 

In a quiet bay of the Dnipro River, a one-hour drive from Kyiv, a group of Ukrainian engineers and special forces soldiers tested what they believe can be a game-changer in the Ukrainian counteroffensive: the Poloz-M16 combat kayak.

 

 

What otherwise looks like the familiar watercraft has been redesigned for special military purposes – in the Kherson region, for example, where the front line parallels the wide Dnipro, with multiple islands between its banks.

 

"To design something like this you have to build boats for 30 years. That's what I've been doing," says Serhiy Ostashenko, CEO of the Adamant Verf company, which produces the kayaks. He designed the Poloz-M16 overnight, he said, after special forces soldiers came to him with a need, and an idea.

 

"Poloz-M16 is similar to what the American and British soldiers have been using, but it's ten times cheaper, around 2,500 dollars per item," Ostaschenko explained to ABC News.

 

Click on the link for the full article