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Russian Invasion of Ukraine


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2 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Putin will want some sort of victory by May 9 to sell to people.  It's not looking like Kiev or the coastline (Odesa) will be possible.  Land bridge from DPR -> Crimea, maybe?  But even in the south Ukraine is starting counter attacks in the Kherson region, so dunno if that will hold.

 

There is a lot of time between now and then.  Hard to say what the conditions will be by that day.

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2 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Hmm.

 

Putin will want some sort of victory by May 9 to sell to people.  It's not looking like Kiev or the coastline (Odesa) will be possible.  Land bridge from DPR -> Crimea, maybe?  But even in the south Ukraine is starting counter attacks in the Kherson region, so dunno if that will hold.

 

Or he can just lie about it.  

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1 minute ago, Larry said:

 

Or he can just lie about it.  

 

So one theory bouncing around is that Mariupol is the main location the Azov Battalion operates from, so if Putin takes that, they can sorta "check" the "denazification" thing off their to-do list.

 

Of course, it's at unbelievable civilian life cost, when instead, he could probably like, ask Zelenskyy to just declare them terrorists after the ceasefire (and Zel could probably be like "hey go disband rq and just kinda fade into the background, k") instead of Groznyfying a city of 400,000.

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5 hours ago, EmirOfShmo said:

 

Pretty sure you can add Virginia Beach & the Outer Banks to that list. It was problematic during the prior 2 summers due to the pandemic.

 

Straight up concerning VA Beach, but they get so many overseas college students from other countries that I believe they'll be fine missing Russians.  Remember meeting someone from Mongolia one summer, yall, they'll be fine.

Edited by Renegade7
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Biden, world leaders to announce natural gas plan for Europe: report

 

President Biden and European leaders are expected to announce a plan on Friday for Europe to receive liquified natural gas (LNG) shipments in an effort to reduce reliance on Russia for energy, three U.S. officials familiar with the plan told The Washington Post.

 

The announcement is expected before Biden leaves for Poland, where he will travel to after meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on Friday, the newspaper reported. The paper noted that the details have not been finalized.

 

The president is also expected to announce a new round of sanctions against Russia while he is in Brussels. Two people familiar with the matter told the newspaper that the sanctions would target the country’s defense companies and subsidiaries, members of its parliament and other sectors.

 

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'Grandpa' steals Russian truck with ammo and supplies and delivers it to Ukrainian Army

 

n yet another feat of ordinary people rising up against Russia, a Ukrainian 'grandpa' stole one of Putin's army's ammo trucks and delivered it into the hands of the Ukrainian Army.

 

In a video clip doing the rounds on several social media platforms, the Ukrainian troops laugh and joke with the older gentleman, congratulating him for his loot.

 

Russian MRE field rations are visible inside the truck, as well as soldier's ruck sacks and plenty of ammo.

 

"A trophy ammunitions crate, lads, well done! Excellent job!" says an excited Ukrainian soldier as he inspects the truck.

 

He continues: "Grab a rucksack! Stop just throwing it. Lads, I’ll get in. Dry rations here. Voha, grab the duffel bag, brother. Empty it and fill with ammo."

 

 

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3 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

Also that request for Stingers and Javelins is kinda unserious.  Like there aren't anywhere near enough aerial targets for that many stingers.  I could see needing for Javelins but 500/day is still more than practical.

Don't Javelins cost something like $250,000 a piece?  Whereas a T-72 costs maybe about $1 million.   If you aren't killing taking out at least one tank for every four of Javelins, you're losing on the economic and need a cheaper way to kill tanks.

Also Ukranian army is claiming maybe 15 tank kills / day,   How many Javelins were in their initial inventory? 

Edit: Javelin is approx $175k for the system + $80k per missile.   IN 2019 Ukraine bought 10 systems + 150 missiles, for $40 million https://www.thedefensepost.com/2019/10/03/us-approves-ukraine-javelin-anti-tank-missile-sale/

 

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2 hours ago, visionary said:

I remember talking to a waitress from Ukraine a few years back in Ocean City.  I wonder if there will be a lot more in the short term.

 


She was most likely over here on a seasonal visa. Lot of Europeans work seasonal jobs in beach towns during the summer. The quantities of those visas is capped and they are not country-specific, fwiw. But yeah outside of that, I did see where we were taking in 100k Ukrainian refugees. Drop in the bucket when looking at the total number of people displaced, but hopefully the majority of them that remained in Europe are able to return home at some point in the coming year or five. It’s going to take a long time to rebuild in some cities. 

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The U.S. is welcoming 100,000 Ukrainian refugees with a focus on reuniting families

 

The U.S. is opening its doors to 100,000 refugees from Ukraine, President Joe Biden said Thursday, and the priority will be on reuniting families.

 

“Many Ukrainian refugees will wish to stay in Europe, closer to their homes, but we also will welcome more than 100,000 Ukrainians to the United States with a focus on reuniting families,” Biden said in Brussels, following a meeting with NATO allies.

 

 

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🔸The highly advanced Russian Krasukha-4 war system has been captured by the Ukrainian army and will be sent to the United States for examination.

1RL257 Krasukha-4, used to suppress AWACS radars and radar reconnaissance satellites.

 

 

THE BEAR IS NOT ALWAYS A WINNER

 

 

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8 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Don't Javelins cost something like $250,000 a piece?  Whereas a T-72 costs maybe about $1 million.   If you aren't killing taking out at least one tank for every four of Javelins, you're losing on the economic and need a cheaper way to kill tanks.

Also Ukranian army is claiming maybe 15 tank kills / day,   How many Javelins were in their initial inventory? 

Edit: Javelin is approx $175k for the system + $80k per missile.   IN 2019 Ukraine bought 10 systems + 150 missiles, for $40 million https://www.thedefensepost.com/2019/10/03/us-approves-ukraine-javelin-anti-tank-missile-sale/

 

When you factor in T-80s at $3M and T-90s at $5M and the fact that javelins don’t usually miss you’re probably  coming out ahead no matter what. 

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This whole pivot towards only caring about eastern ukraine sounds like an exit strategy to me

 

also fits the narrative that the eastern and coastal areas, where pipeline and natural gas reserve are, is all this was about in the first place

 

Which. As a side note. If that is all this was ever about… and intelligence services had this dubbed as bat**** crazy putin willing to launch nukes to reclaim USSR borders from forever ago… then that’s a massive failure and putin punked everyone. 
 

(well - maybe - cause it’s hard to see how Russia recovers and is a meaningful member of the global picture with these sanctions in place…)

 

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9 minutes ago, tshile said:

Which. As a side note. If that is all this was ever about… and intelligence services had this dubbed as bat**** crazy putin willing to launch nukes to reclaim USSR borders from forever ago… then that’s a massive failure and putin punked everyone.

I don’t think that’s all it was ever about.  I think this is Putin moving the goalposts to try and save face.

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