The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randal 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariota and Fromm battle for QB2

[zCommander]

If TK follows TH then that is good enough for me

 

 

 

 

[Riggo#44]

 

[zCommander]

Brutal....for Wentz that is

 

 

 

[wit33]

It’s wild how narratives or first impressions stick, Heineke is described by teammates and now national media as a dude that plays every play as if it’s his last, this hasn’t been the case for a long time. Last season in his final 6 games he ran for 30 yards and similar rushing production has continued this season. I spent a fair amount of time researching his lack of running last year and learned he didn’t do much RPO or RO in college. Was perplexed they weren’t doing more ROs with him last season. 
 

As a few have pointed out, I do feel he’s become a better overall QB and has managed to be competent while not running this season versus last. Obviously, the team around him is playing at significantly higher level, but he’s also removed the idea you can just stack the box and run blitz on the way to sacking him each play.

I watched an interview with him on the London Fletcher and Santana Moss show and he shared wanting and actively working to run less and operate effectively from the pocket. Clear this is a choice he’s decided to make. Would be great if he could strike a balance at some point, but doesn’t seem likely. 

 

Here’s the link to the interview if interested. Worth a listen:

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by wit33

[Warhead36]

41 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

That's why tanking and chasing saviors is not always the best strategy. 

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

That's why tanking and chasing saviors is not always the best strategy. 

You’re using the Jets as your barometer for sound drafting?

[SkinsFTW]

9 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 I’ve just given up on that entire aspect of his game.  It’s odd that the same dude known for pylon dives is giving up on opportunities to move the chains with his feet.  I’m not sure if it’s conscious or what, but it would be a lift to this offense if he’d run as opposed to pass in these scenarios.

 

It's not.

 

The easy way to verify this is to watch Scott Turner in the booth whenever they show him during the game.

 

If you look close you will see that he's clearly holding an Xbox controller during most plays.

 

 

[CommanderCarson]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

You’re using the Jets as your barometer for sound drafting?

I get that the jets are awful and not the barometer but point still stands I think.

 

Getting a top 3 pick does not guarantee anything. We’ve seen it time and time again going back a long time. Wilson especially had people acting like he was the next Mahomes and that he’d be a savior. He wasn’t. 
 

In fact, I vividly remember a very large majority of the fanbase rooting for the skins to lose to the giants the last week for the Chase Young sweepstakes. I was one of them, because at that point in the year when it’s already lost, winning one game won’t lead to any real momentum anyway so losing and getting the better draft pick makes sense to me. But you could make the argument that losing that game did NOT work out for us. Imagine this same team that already hasn’t had young drafting Herbert at 4 or whatever. We’d be talking dynasty right now. And I love young and excited as hell to get him back, think he has a bright future. But our DL is already top notch, so Herbert easily puts us in a better position today. 
 

Like I said, if season is over, and it’s the last game and your entire team is ready to pack it in, I totally get being happy with a loss or hoping for it. Most situations, even being 4-8 or something of the like, I’d say finishing strong and winning games is more beneficial long term than tanking for a guy that may or may not turn out as a Wilson or Darnold or all of the other guys over the years. Hell we have one on our bench right now.

[Thinking Skins]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

No one is saying he's slow.  What we are saying is he doesn't run.  So what does it matter how fast he is aside from escaping pressure which we indeed plug him for?  He's not a QB who adds a run dimension.    

 

Carr runs in the 4.6's yet someone here tells me he's pure pocket passer as a criticism.  He's right about that part of the argument, Carr is a pocket passer, not a runner.   But Carr does have wheels and can escape pressure if he chooses like Taylor.  But i'd consider Carr a pocket passer in spite of his speed because he barely ever runs.  Heinicke same thing.    It's cool that Heinicke like Carr can run if he must.  So I don't consider either immobile at all but neither provides a running threat because its not a weapon they use much.

 

Heck 2017 season Kirk was much more likely to take off than Taylor.  Ditto in some of his Minnesota seasons.  Taylor seems to be planting himself as a dude who is a pocket passer who very rarely runs.  He is nimble in the pocket no doubt but presents absolutely no run threat for a defense to prepare for -- if there are three yards or so of daylight to scamper for a big first down, he will very unlikely run for it but instead buy time in the pocket and hope someone gets open.

I just wanted to see if he was running rpo vs scrambling vs having designed runs. It seems like his standard is to drop back, look for a wr, scramble as the pass rush comes, then either run or pass on the run. Sometimes he loses accuracy but some times the lb in coverage commits to stopping the run and gives him a completion. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 hours ago, CommanderCarson said:

In fact, I vividly remember a very large majority of the fanbase rooting for the skins to lose to the giants the last week for the Chase Young sweepstakes. I was one of them, because at that point in the year when it’s already lost, winning one game won’t lead to any real momentum anyway so losing and getting the better draft pick makes sense to me. But you could make the argument that losing that game did NOT work out for us. Imagine this same team that already hasn’t had young drafting Herbert at 4 or whatever. We’d be talking dynasty right now. And I love young and excited as hell to get him back, think he has a bright future. But our DL is already top notch, so Herbert easily puts us in a better position today. 

I think it's hard to revisionist history that specifically with Haskins still on the roster, which was Dan's pick, and who had shown some signs of life during the 2019 season in literally the worst possible situation. I kindof get the feeling they would not have drafted a QB unless it was Burrow.  Also, the next QB off of the board was going to be Tua.  Which looks like that might turn out ok given what he has done in Miami this year.

 

If Haskins was not on the roster, there is a chance we would have drafted a QB in that draft, either at 2, or more likely traded down slightly for somebody to pick up Young and then drafted later.  But, we know the trade down would have had to have been inside the top 6, or Miami or the Chargers were picking Tua and Herbert.

 

To your original point, there was absolutely nothing to be gained by winning the Giants game. I'm glad we lost.  It gave us all the options.  What would have been nice is to lose one of the other meaningless games Old Man Callahan won and getting the #1 pick.  Then we draft Burrow, as Ron has said he was going to do. And then you can start thinking about where we would be.  Because I do think this is a competent coaching staff, and if you put Burrow on this team with this staff, I don't think they would ruin him.  

 

If you put Burrow on the team prior to Ron, I think there's a chance he ends up as a supreme bust, at least here.  

[KDawg]

5 hours ago, CommanderCarson said:

I get that the jets are awful and not the barometer but point still stands I think.

 

Getting a top 3 pick does not guarantee anything. We’ve seen it time and time again going back a long time. Wilson especially had people acting like he was the next Mahomes and that he’d be a savior. He wasn’t. 
 

In fact, I vividly remember a very large majority of the fanbase rooting for the skins to lose to the giants the last week for the Chase Young sweepstakes. I was one of them, because at that point in the year when it’s already lost, winning one game won’t lead to any real momentum anyway so losing and getting the better draft pick makes sense to me. But you could make the argument that losing that game did NOT work out for us. Imagine this same team that already hasn’t had young drafting Herbert at 4 or whatever. We’d be talking dynasty right now. And I love young and excited as hell to get him back, think he has a bright future. But our DL is already top notch, so Herbert easily puts us in a better position today. 
 

Like I said, if season is over, and it’s the last game and your entire team is ready to pack it in, I totally get being happy with a loss or hoping for it. Most situations, even being 4-8 or something of the like, I’d say finishing strong and winning games is more beneficial long term than tanking for a guy that may or may not turn out as a Wilson or Darnold or all of the other guys over the years. Hell we have one on our bench right now.

 

The point was Darnold and Wilson were both guys I personally wasn't fond of. I wasn't alone in that assessment. And I'm not a pro scout.

 

Picking bad players is the issue. Not the draft position. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 hours ago, KDawg said:

You’re using the Jets as your barometer for sound drafting?

I get that you're kindof making a joke here, but the point really holds.  Let's start in 2013, the year after the Luck/Griffin draft.  

 

2013: No top QBs, highest was EJ Manuel to the Jets at 16

 

2014: 

#3 - Blake Bortles: Bust

 

2015:

#1 - Winston: Bust

#2 - Mariota: Bust

 

2016: 

#1 - Goff: Maybe not a bust, but not really worthy of #1 #1

#2 - Wentz. Certainly a bust for what the Eagles traded up to get him.

 

2017: 

#2 - Mitch Trubisky:Bust

** #10 Mahomes - Best QB in the NFL

** #12 DeShaun Watson - Was a top 5 QB until personal issues derailed his career

 

2018: 

#1 - Baker Mayfield: Bust

#3 - Sam Darnold: Bust

** #7 Josh Allen, probably the second best QB in the NFL

** #10 Josh Rosen: Bust

** #32 Lamar Jackson

 

2019: 

#1 Kyler Murray: Jury's out

#6 Daniel Jones: Eh, maybe not a full fledged bust but not #6 worthy

 

2020:

#1 Burrow: Franchise QB

#5: Tua: Looks like this is working out

#6: Herbert: Franchise QB

 

2021:

#1: Trevor Lawrence: Seems to be coming around

#2: Zach Wilson: Seem to be busting

#3: Trey Lance: Can't get on the field

** #11 Justin Fields: Tough to tell, Bears are bad, but certainly not franchise QB yet. 

 

For a stretch between 2014 and 2019, the only non-busts QB taken inside the top 10 were Allen and Murray.  Allen was the third QB taken in his class. Mahomes was 10, and was the second QB taken in his class. If you want to include him in the top 10 non-busts, that's fine too. That's a whopping 3 in 6 years out of 9.

 

Betting on a top 10 QB has about a 1/3 chance of working out. You've kindof got to get lucky having the right pick and the right guy.

 

The last #1 #1 with a HOF career was Peyton Manning in 1998.  Luck might be the second best #1 #1 QB since then, and Cam is probably third.  Burrow is too early to tell, but trending in the right direction. 

 

 

 

 

 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I get that you're kindof making a joke here, but the point really holds.  Let's start in 2013, the year after the Luck/Griffin draft.  

 

2013: No top QBs, highest was EJ Manuel to the Jets at 16

 

2014: 

#3 - Blake Bortles: Bust

 

2015:

#1 - Winston: Bust

#2 - Mariota: Bust

 

2016: 

#1 - Goff: Maybe not a bust, but not really worthy of #1 #1

#2 - Wentz. Certainly a bust for what the Eagles traded up to get him.

 

2017: 

#2 - Mitch Trubisky:Bust

** #10 Mahomes - Best QB in the NFL

** #12 DeShaun Watson - Was a top 5 QB until personal issues derailed his career

 

2018: 

#1 - Baker Mayfield: Bust

#3 - Sam Darnold: Bust

** #7 Josh Allen, probably the second best QB in the NFL

** #10 Josh Rosen: Bust

** #32 Lamar Jackson

 

2019: 

#1 Kyler Murray: Jury's out

#6 Daniel Jones: Eh, maybe not a full fledged bust but not #6 worthy

 

2020:

#1 Burrow: Franchise QB

#5: Tua: Looks like this is working out

#6: Herbert: Franchise QB

 

2021:

#1: Trevor Lawrence: Seems to be coming around

#2: Zach Wilson: Seem to be busting

#3: Trey Lance: Can't get on the field

** #11 Justin Fields: Tough to tell, Bears are bad, but certainly not franchise QB yet. 

 

For a stretch between 2014 and 2019, the only non-busts QB taken inside the top 10 were Allen and Murray.  Allen was the third QB taken in his class. Mahomes was 10, and was the second QB taken in his class. If you want to include him in the top 10 non-busts, that's fine too. That's a whopping 3 in 6 years out of 9.

 

Betting on a top 10 QB has about a 1/3 chance of working out. You've kindof got to get lucky having the right pick and the right guy.

 

The last #1 #1 with a HOF career was Peyton Manning in 1998.  Luck might be the second best #1 #1 QB since then, and Cam is probably third.  Burrow is too early to tell, but trending in the right direction. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So good scouting matters. Got it.

[MrJL]

7 hours ago, KDawg said:

You’re using the Jets as your barometer for sound drafting?

 

that sounds to me like they're the barometer of UNsound drafting.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

The point was Darnold and Wilson were both guys I personally wasn't fond of. I wasn't alone in that assessment. And I'm not a pro scout.

 

Picking bad players is the issue. Not the draft position. 

 

The irony is under Douglas the Jets are actually good at draftng for the most part.   But he blew it on Wilson.  He didn't draft Darnold.  Shows you the power of a QB although the Jets are winning this year without one. Looks like they might have made up for Wilson but holding on to Mike White.

 

 

https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/10/13/jets-2021-2022-draft-classes-resurgence/

Joe Douglas’s 2021-22 draft classes are powering Jets’ resurgence

After receiving little production from the draft for nearly a decade, the Jets' last two draft classes are making the NFL take notice.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

I just wanted to see if he was running rpo vs scrambling vs having designed runs. It seems like his standard is to drop back, look for a wr, scramble as the pass rush comes, then either run or pass on the run. Sometimes he loses accuracy but some times the lb in coverage commits to stopping the run and gives him a completion. 

 

The kicker for me was watching Sundays game, twice I could see from my naked eye he could have easily run for first downs, on a critical down, yet he threw the ball, one of those times was an incompletion.  It made me think this dude plays like he runs 5.0 and plays like he can't run -- its really strange to me and its part of the reason why I am out on him as the QB of the future.

 

If a QB isn't that accurate and has a weak arm and throws picks, I'd want to balance that somehow.  And yeah Taylor's "moxie" and clutch gene offsets that to some extent but not enough for me.  If Taylor used his wheels at least I think he'd have a fighting chance.  But if he's going to be Brady in the pocket, who is also dexterous at dodging pressure like Taylor, then I'd want Brady like accuracy but he's not even close to that.

 

I don't think its a wild coincidece that Daniel Jones is having his best season, yes better than Taylor, when he's running more than ever.  If you got wheels make the defense account for it.  Taylor doesn't do it.  Like I said we saw more running from Kirk in some seasons than we do from Taylor.  As far as I am concerned the way he plays, Taylor brings zero running element to the QB spot.  He just has some outlier token runs once in awhile just like any other stationary QB in the league. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Caught up with Bram and Keim podcast from last night.  As @Voice_of_Reason likes to point out, Bram is the leading Heinicke Hiver among the media -- playing off of that point hearing Bram was interesting.

 

A.  Bram started off more or less saying Heinicke hasn't been hot the last three weeks, saying their longest pass play has been 26 yards (did I hear that right, is that true?), he doesn't really move now including in the pocket and he worries how he'd fare against the blitz happy Giants.  He laments how Taylor doesn't get the ball to Dotson. And Keim chimes in that against Texas, he recalled a play where Dotson was wide open, Taylor looked at him and elected not to throw to him.  Bram is worried that their luck might run out because its not easy to keep winning without much of a passing game.

 

B.  Bram than kicked in that Jonathan Allen post Texans game had another part of his speech where he called out the offense for leaving plays on the field -- albiet that part of the speech didn't make the cut of what the team put out.

 

C.  Then Bram sort of retracts when he is asked a question from a fan about what players have improved the most this year and he cites Heinicke in that mix, citing his play but then referencing maybe he hit a wall so the bye week might help him.  An odd dance from Bram considering what he said earlier on that same podcast.

 

D.  They both referenced not ruling out that Wentz might take the job back but Heinicke has to lose a game first.  Keim said the team doesn't feel like Howell is ready right now. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Zim489]

9 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

That's why tanking and chasing saviors is not always the best strategy. 

You still have to make the correct selection. 

[DJHJR86]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

They both referenced not ruling out that Wentz might take the job back but Heinicke has to lose a game first. 

 

I am old enough to remember 2011 when teammates were absolutely besides themselves because Shanahan benched Grossman after a 3-2 start and players were quoted as saying you don't bench a quarterback with a winning record.  Gonna be a hard sell to bench the guy who's 5-2 to the locker room.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

I am old enough to remember 2011 when teammates were absolutely besides themselves because Shanahan benched Grossman after a 3-2 start and players were quoted as saying you don't bench a quarterback with a winning record.  Gonna be a hard sell to bench the guy who's 5-2 to the locker room.

 

They weren't leaning that it happens but they didn't think it was out of the question. 

[Skinsinparadise]

The dude, I forget his name, Wellingham or something like that, who is on for Sheehan today, and was around the team during camp, talking right now on the radio saying that he believes Heinicke is a loss away from being benched.

 

Personally, I don't know.  if its a loss, I think it depends on how he plays in that loss.  My gut is he survives a loss but not two.

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[DJHJR86]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Personally, I don't know.  if its a loss, I think it depends on how he plays in that loss.  My gut is he survives a loss but not two.

 

So let's say they bench him after a loss to the Giants going into the bye.  Then Wentz starts...and they lose.  Then what?

Edited November 30, 2022 by DJHJR86

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

So let's say they bench him after a loss to the Giants going into the bye.  Then Wentz starts...and then lose.  Then what?

 

You got to ride Wentz again in that context.  1 and out I wouldn't be for any QB.

[CjSuAvE22]

I think we should continue building the team till the ppl at helm find a qb worth trading up for no need to panic buy something at this point imo we have already went for 30 years without an elite arm however for the first time I feel like we have a decent roster ride the hot hand and dont do anything stupid to bring in some flashy new snyder toy 

Edited November 30, 2022 by CjSuAvE22

[DJHJR86]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

You got to ride Wentz again in that context.  1 and out I wouldn't be for any QB.

 

Rivera has to play this very smart.  If he goes back to Wentz after a loss or two and they miss the playoffs...yikes.