The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[philibusters]

7 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

He was a 5th rounder for a reason. He's a developmental prospect.

 

Yeah, he is 21 (will turn 22 during the season) and only had three years of college football (though he was a three year starter).  Because he is got a lot of playing experience in college he is not really raw but at 21 years old and only three years of college he is developmental prospect.  A guy like Kenny Pickett is 2 years and 4 months older for example.

[Conn]

52 minutes ago, Acworth skins fan said:

Don’t have a clue which way the front office leans, but he would still be under contract the next two years at $26 mil and $27. He can be cut the end of this year with zero dead money, if I’m not mistaken. 

Which is why if Wentz actually plays well, he’ll want a new contract. And if he plays well enough to force that conversation, he’ll probably deserve one (at least one that makes an appropriate amount of money over the next 2-3 years guaranteed, which is the security players want—which can also be a tool to create cap space to go “all in” if Wentz looked good enough to entice that option). 

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

How good does Wentz have to be in order to get an extension and how soon do you think it happens if he gets off to a hot start?

I don’t think there is any way Wentz gets and extension before 2024.  His cap numbers are good for 2023 and 2024. He’s either going to be the starter or cut and go to FA. 
 

After 2023, he will demand an extension and the team would want one because they probably wouldn’t want to go into his last year with FA and franchise tag he’ll looming.  And they might even be able to lower his cap number if they wanted to, and if I’m right, that would be the same off season they would theoretically be signing Chase Young as well.  That is, of course, assuming he plays well enough for them to want to keep him for 3 years after 2024.  It would probably be a 3 year extension which would run 2025, 2026, 2027 with a signing bonus paid in 2024. I didn’t look it up but I think that would take him until about his age 35 season.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

35 minutes ago, Conn said:

Which is why if Wentz actually plays well, he’ll want a new contract. And if he plays well enough to force that conversation, he’ll probably deserve one (at least one that makes an appropriate amount of money over the next 2-3 years guaranteed, which is the security players want—which can also be a tool to create cap space to go “all in” if Wentz looked good enough to entice that option). 

Yeah, unless he balls out to MVP level conversation, I doubt he will get one after this year.  If he does, then pay the man.  But if he’s just really good, his salary for 2023 isn’t “low”. There are a bunch of inflated QB salaries, but they are mostly 2 years out when the new TV money comes in and the cap is expected to explode.  Teams have been creative with the cap math and salaries even for the big deals.  
 

He wouldn’t be in danger of being cut, so I think there’s a 95% chance he plays on his deal for 2 years (assuming he lasts 2 years). And then a 75% chance he is extended before 2024. Again, assuming he’s good enough to keep around.

 

Ironically, I think he either gets cut after 2022 or probably extended after 2023.  I doubt he gets cut after 2023.  If he’s going to get cut it will be quickly.  

[Conn]

16 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Yeah, unless he balls out to MVP level conversation, I doubt he will get one after this year.  If he does, then pay the man.  But if he’s just really good, his salary for 2023 isn’t “low”. There are a bunch of inflated QB salaries, but they are mostly 2 years out when the new TV money comes in and the cap is expected to explode.  Teams have been creative with the cap math and salaries even for the big deals.  
 

He wouldn’t be in danger of being cut, so I think there’s a 95% chance he plays on his deal for 2 years (assuming he lasts 2 years). And then a 75% chance he is extended before 2024. Again, assuming he’s good enough to keep around.

 

Ironically, I think he either gets cut after 2022 or probably extended after 2023.  I doubt he gets cut after 2023.  If he’s going to get cut it will be quickly.  

If he plays well enough to justify the next year of his contract (which is best case scenario, don’t get me wrong), he’s going to want a good portion at least guaranteed due to injury. It would be extremely strange to have a guy now seen as good enough to be “the franchise” play on such a large contract that has no injury protection or guarantees—he could tear his Achilles next summer and be cut with no consequences despite the nice salary. So most players aren’t going to be cool with that. And most teams would understand, given in this hypothetical he proved himself worth the money, and you want to keep your guy feeling happy and wanted. 
 

Not to mention we’ll probably want to get his cap number down if he’s worth keeping. 
 

But we’re of course getting ahead of ourselves. He needs to play well enough this year to make this “a thing” first. 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Conn

[Voice_of_Reason]

@Conn I can see that.  And believe me, I totally get the worst case scenario thing. 
 

However, you can’t release and injured player, I don’t think.  So let’s say he makes it through 2022, and suffers a torn acl in ota’s. Practically speaking, I think his contract is still guaranteed.  Also if he got hurt in week 1, I don’t think the team can cut him.  
 

I could be wrong about that.  But there are rules about cutting injured players.  I don’t think you can cut somebody off of IR without an injury settlement, and I think that has to be agreed to by both sides. 
 

We are getting ahead of ourselves though.  Let’s see if he can hit the check-down against a blitz before we give the guy an extension. (Though this contract stuff is very interesting to me.)

[HigSkin]

I'm going to put this here because there's a lot of focus on Wentz but interesting takes.

 

 

[Koolblue13]

[Mrshadow008]

4 hours ago, HigSkin said:

I'm going to put this here because there's a lot of focus on Wentz but interesting takes.

 

 

The only thing I disagree with them on here is the Jonathan Taylor point. Taylor is a good weapon for any offense to have but I don’t think Taylor outweighs Terry, Samuel, Dotson, Gibson and JD. That’s before you add a possible healthy Thomas to the mix 

[mistertim]

5 hours ago, HigSkin said:

I'm going to put this here because there's a lot of focus on Wentz but interesting takes.

 

 

 

Ridiculous. The only team people are truly sleeping on is the Colts. Now that they have a laboratory created fusion of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, and Brett Favre in the illustrious and all-powerful Matt Ryan, the Colts are not only going to win the SB this year, but they will be traveling back in time and retroactively winning the last 4 SBs as well. This is as it should be.

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Ridiculous. The only team people are truly sleeping on is the Colts. Now that they have a laboratory created fusion of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, and Brett Favre in the illustrious and all-powerful Matt Ryan, the Colts are not only going to win the SB this year, but they will be traveling back in time and retroactively winning the last 4 SBs as well. This is as it should be.

It will be funny when they finish 9-8 and out of the playoffs again.  They get the AFC West, NFC East, obviously the AFC South twice and then toss in New England, Raiders and Pittsburgh.

 

They will probably be underdogs against the entire NFC West. They do get the Texans and Jags twice, but they haven't won in Jacksonville in forever.  They will get to 8 or 9 wins, but that really could be it. 

 

They need to either hope Tenn has a setback year and they can win the division, or it's very possible they need 11 to get a wild card, with all the loaded teams in the AFC.  

 

I desperately want them to lose in Jacksonville again, and to us.  And then Irsay can go shove it where the sun don't shine.  

[mistertim]

15 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

It will be funny when they finish 9-8 and out of the playoffs again.  They get the AFC West, NFC East, obviously the AFC South twice and then toss in New England, Raiders and Pittsburgh.

 

They will probably be underdogs against the entire NFC West. They do get the Texans and Jags twice, but they haven't won in Jacksonville in forever.  They will get to 8 or 9 wins, but that really could be it. 

 

They need to either hope Tenn has a setback year and they can win the division, or it's very possible they need 11 to get a wild card, with all the loaded teams in the AFC.  

 

I desperately want them to lose in Jacksonville again, and to us.  And then Irsay can go shove it where the sun don't shine.  

 

Honestly, I'm not sure it would matter. The media narrative has been set about Ryan being a godlike savior, and one thing consistent about sports mediots is that when they're wrong they'll never admit it and will double or triple down.

 

So if Ryan and the Colts underwhelm it will absolutely not be Ryan's fault, even if he played poorly and put up bad numbers. It will be the OL's fault, or the running game's fault, or the coach's fault, or the defense's fault, or the receivers' fault.

[kingdaddy]

On 6/20/2022 at 12:44 PM, Conn said:

I’m not here to defend Baker Mayfield as a franchise caliber QB, but I have to point out that it’s extremely well-documented that he played through tons of injuries that he shouldn’t have last year, putting his body on the line because the Browns had nothing else. The fact that they chose to go all-in on Watson says more about the Browns than it does Mayfield, even if I only think he’s average. He’s been better than 2021 in the past, and it’s a joke to compare him to Heinicke as a QB talent imo. 

Browns have/had Case Keenum....if you want to say that Mayfield played hurt I'll agree, but the TH detractors should concede that TH played with less than half of a full deck surrounding him while Mayfield had most of his weapons at his disposal. There's much more to QB play than just arm strength...that's all I'm saying, I think Mayfield makes terrible decisions and held the Browns back big time last year. If he was that hurt then he shouldn't have played. As the NFL players will tell you themselves, everybody plays hurt during the season. 

When comparing Mayfield to TH just look at the stats...stats don't show arm strength or other intangibles. I'll bet Mayfield has a better arm than many NFL QB's but he lacks in many other areas so far in his career. I'm sure Darnold has a big arm too. 

The fact that the Browns went "all in" on Watson tells me they have zero faith in Mayfield and don't like what they've seen. You also have to wonder why no team has stepped up and traded for him? He's a former #1 overall pick....something isn't adding up with Mayfield.

[SkinsFTW]

2 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

 

The fact that the Browns went "all in" on Watson tells me they have zero faith in Mayfield and don't like what they've seen.

 

Well it is the Browns.

 

With the way things work out for them, the Lions, and (lol) Dan's team, he might end up winning the SB somewhere else soon. Not because he's very good now, but just because it's the Browns.

[TheShredder]

22 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

How good does Wentz have to be in order to get an extension and how soon do you think it happens if he gets off to a hot start?

 

I am not asking that question because I am necessarily pro-Wentz, or even think he will have that kind of start in the first place, but I do wonder when it comes to the front office and being desperate for a QB, where is the fine line between "of course he is better than the mediocrity we've had here versus okay this guy is playing special and we need to make sure he is here longer?"

 

Which way do you think the front office is leaning right now, towards the fact that the contract offers a clean slate after the season, or itchy trigger finger to lock Wentz up the moment he shows signs of taking this team to a different level then it's been in a long time?

To actually answer your question,

I'd believe Wentz has to have a winning record going into Week 12, or he's done. If he starts slow, he won't get there. I think he needs to lead the offense to wins, including coming from behind and in Prime Time. There will be no extension during the season, regardless of performance. If he is on par with 2021 numbers but they get into the playoffs it would make sense for both sides to add 2 years to the contract and turning 2023 & 24' into part of a signing bonus to lower the cap for other players to sign. That would add guaranteed money and show he's wanted. They could inflate the back end salary as they do for players who want another contract at a certain year (like AJ Brown did). 

I expect Wentz to be really good actually. Could have the best year of his career and he better.

[TheShredder]

3 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

You also have to wonder why no team has stepped up and traded for him? He's a former #1 overall pick....something isn't adding up with Mayfield.

I remember seeing him throw a short TD and jogging back from the end-zone along the sideline and nobody offering high five. I was thinking man, they hate that guy!

[Koolblue13]

If we don't have a winning record and clearly look like a playoff team by week 12, or at clearly out of the race then it's Howell times to shine.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

If we don't have a winning record and clearly look like a playoff team by week 12, or at clearly out of the race then it's Howell times to shine.

 

 

 

 

[Est.1974]

Howell really was an exciting draft pick. Especially with Wentz on board already.

[Conn]

11 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Browns have/had Case Keenum....if you want to say that Mayfield played hurt I'll agree, but the TH detractors should concede that TH played with less than half of a full deck surrounding him while Mayfield had most of his weapons at his disposal. There's much more to QB play than just arm strength...that's all I'm saying, I think Mayfield makes terrible decisions and held the Browns back big time last year. If he was that hurt then he shouldn't have played. As the NFL players will tell you themselves, everybody plays hurt during the season. 

When comparing Mayfield to TH just look at the stats...stats don't show arm strength or other intangibles. I'll bet Mayfield has a better arm than many NFL QB's but he lacks in many other areas so far in his career. I'm sure Darnold has a big arm too. 

The fact that the Browns went "all in" on Watson tells me they have zero faith in Mayfield and don't like what they've seen. You also have to wonder why no team has stepped up and traded for him? He's a former #1 overall pick....something isn't adding up with Mayfield.

I’m not really concerned about most of this, like I began with, I’m not here to argue the viability or value of Mayfield as a franchise guy or otherwise. Purely pushing back on the idea that, contracts aside, comparing him against Heinicke makes any sense whatsoever. It absolutely doesn’t and 32 NFL teams would agree. 

[Koolblue13]

16 minutes ago, Conn said:

I’m not really concerned about most of this, like I began with, I’m not here to argue the viability or value of Mayfield as a franchise guy or otherwise. Purely pushing back on the idea that, contracts aside, comparing him against Heinicke makes any sense whatsoever. It absolutely doesn’t and 32 NFL teams would agree. 

It's amazing that the entire NFL and NFL media are all sleeping on Heinicke being better than Mayfield, but yet someone on ES knows the truth and the rest of the world can't see it. 

 

Mayfield, Heinicke, heck, even Jimmy G are all in the same tier. Wonder why the QB on the 2 mil contract that could be had for a day 3 pick isn't garnering more attention.

[Tress Is The Way]

18 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Honestly, I'm not sure it would matter. The media narrative has been set about Ryan being a godlike savior, and one thing consistent about sports mediots is that when they're wrong they'll never admit it and will double or triple down.

 

So if Ryan and the Colts underwhelm it will absolutely not be Ryan's fault, even if he played poorly and put up bad numbers. It will be the OL's fault, or the running game's fault, or the coach's fault, or the defense's fault, or the receivers' fault.

I'd laugh my friggin butt off if they go down to Jax again on September 18th and lose. That would be the biggest "HaHa" by nelson in the face to Irsay 🤣

[kingdaddy]

9 hours ago, TheShredder said:

I remember seeing him throw a short TD and jogging back from the end-zone along the sideline and nobody offering high five. I was thinking man, they hate that guy!

Yeah, I think his ego must be a big part of the problem with him. I will say, I like his commercials where his stadium is where he lives. 

[Warhead36]

A healthy Baker Mayfield led the CLEVELAND BROWNS to a playoff win. Think about that for a second. They should be erecting statues of him but they forced him to play on a hurt shoulder and then replaced him by overpaying big time for a sexual predator.

 

There is no comp between him and Heinicke. They are on different planets as QBs.

[mistertim]

I’m curious what having a higher spin rate on a football throw translates to on the field. Accuracy? The article mentioned more catchable...is that the case? Easier on the receivers?