The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[zCommander]

15 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Well, as anyone would probably agree, the stats don't always tell the whole story.

 

That being said, Wentz was considerably higher in almost every statistical category outside of completion percentage. He was top 10 in QBR, Heinicke was bottom 10. Even PFF, who practically have a team solely dedicated to bashing Wentz whenever humanly possibly nowadays, gave him a 71 rating compared to Heinicke's 60. Wentz had 27 TDs to 7 INTs, Heinicke had 20 TDs to 15 INTs. And don't try to play that off as Heinicke being a gunslinger who takes chances because that's pretty much exactly Wentz's game too.

 

@Skinsinparadiseposted a bunch of other stats as well. So yes, there is a pretty clear night and day difference between Wentz and Heinicke not only in talent level but in almost every statistical category.

 

I have no clue why you keep jumping headfirst into this Heinicke Hive meat grinder at seemingly random intervals in this thread. We get it. You like him. You like how he plays. He's a good story. You wanted him to be "the guy". But he's just not.

 

And nothing is going to change that...even claiming to be behind Wentz but setting arbitrary and sometimes artificially high bars for him so you can then **** about him later (it's really obvious when you do that, by the way).

 

The randomness of my posts is actually due to the fact I own a business and well have to run it. Sometimes I just read and try not to belittle people for their views even if they don't align with mine. 

 

As for the arbitrary it is actually a measuring stick. If Wentz is twice as good as TH then we should theoretically win 12-14 games with Wentz. That is not a high bar at all. It is called an expectation. A whopping $28 mil plus expectation. Will I **** about him if he fails. Sure, who wouldn't. I am sure the media will have a field day if he fails. I will just say what a waste of 28 mil. But, If he turns out to be a franchise QB then that would be really great since we haven't had one of those since ever. Every time we have traded for a vet QB it hasn't worked out. What we haven't done more of is draft a legit franchise QB. 

 

But we do have is Howell so there is still some glimmer of hope if he turns out to be a gem and a franchise QB that was selected by us and not them. 

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by zCommander

[FootballZombie]

20 hours ago, wit33 said:

TD passes and team PPG for the QB are my two favorites these days to explore and dissect when comparing QBs to rest of the league. 
 

What are others “go tos” or favorite categories to explore when forming an opinion on a QB? 

 

Personally, I'm a fan of week-in and week-out production, Stuff like Yds/G. Once you have a handful of games to pull from, it lets you know who is imposing their will every Sunday, regardless of defensive adjustments, hot streaks, game film and the like. Who are the guys that consistently can't be stopped even when everyone in the country knows team X is gonna try to sling the ball around and D coordinators are loosing sleep trying to figure out ways to just slow dudes down.

 

 

The "Tier" approach is one that has also caught my attention

A lot of time when Dan Orlovsky ranks QBs he kinda goes for a big "picture approach" when comparing guys. He will be less concerned with order or rankings, and simply throw players into 1-of-3 tiers.

 

QBs you win games because of

QBs you win games "with"

QBs you win in spite of/Unknown due to age

 

Not the greatest method for comparing two players unless they fall into different tiers, but it is kind of a novel way of looking at various QBs and determining where they stand. Once your solidified into one of the tiers, where you rank within it is pretty pointless.

 

[Tundra scout]

https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2022/06/25/carson-wentz-was-among-the-best-under-pressure-in-2021-washington-commanders-quarterback/

[formerly4skins]

11 hours ago, zCommander said:

As for the arbitrary it is actually a measuring stick. If Wentz is twice as good as TH then we should theoretically win 12-14 games with Wentz.

 

I think this logic falls apart because it's in no way a 1:1 comparison. There are just too many variables from year to year. 

 

Every team in the league has changed to some degree...personel, player development or decline, depth charts, coaches, schemes, etc.

 

In my opinion,  it's just not as simple as "twice the QB = twice the wins".

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

4 hours ago, formerly4skins said:

 

I think this logic falls apart because it's in no way a 1:1 comparison. There are just too many variables from year to year. 

 

Every team in the league has changed to some degree...personel, player development or decline, depth charts, coaches, schemes, etc.

 

In my opinion,  it's just not as simple as "twice the QB = twice the wins".

I think he's more than well aware of that, it just suits the stance that he's taken.  Basically setting himself up to 'rightfully' complain and get revenge so to speak.

[KDawg]

2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I think he's more than well aware of that, it just suits the stance that he's taken.  Basically setting himself up to 'rightfully' complain and get revenge so to speak.

 

Absolutely the case.

 

Having said that: "Twice as good" is generally hyperbole as it pertains to professional athletes.

 

I mean, let's pretend all these QBs are rated like Madden ratings. If Taylor Heinicke is a 55 (he's probably better than that, just go with the example) that would mean Wentz would need to be a 110 to be twice as good.

 

Realistically Heinicke is probably a 65ish quarterback, mostly due to a lack of arm strength and height and decision making and in some cases accuracy but not all (but he has very high grades in mostly everything else such as athleticism, non measurables like leadership and having ice in his veins). 

 

Wentz is probably in the mid 70s. Let's say a 73, just for conversation sake. That's an 8% increase... Which is a decent improvement for a NFL QB. 

 

A Patrick Mahomes type is a 95% or so, which would be a 22% increase from Wentz. That's not even "double". So, we use hyperbole fairly often, which works towards the "if he's double the player he should double the wins!" agenda.

 

Realistically, this team won 7 games. If you are going at this just with raw numbers and not including variables such as schedule: An 8% increase in wins is 8 vs. the 7 we had last season. 

 

But even using that, the 8% increase in "overall" player level would also account for 8% better production from the receiving group in theory. 

 

So... yeah. It's kind of complicated. But that doesn't fit the "he needs to double the win total" agenda.

Edited June 25, 2022 by KDawg

[zCommander]

8 hours ago, formerly4skins said:

 

I think this logic falls apart because it's in no way a 1:1 comparison. There are just too many variables from year to year. 

 

Every team in the league has changed to some degree...personel, player development or decline, depth charts, coaches, schemes, etc.

 

In my opinion,  it's just not as simple as "twice the QB = twice the wins".

 

3 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I think he's more than well aware of that, it just suits the stance that he's taken.  Basically setting himself up to 'rightfully' complain and get revenge so to speak.

 

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

Absolutely the case.

 

Having said that: "Twice as good" is generally hyperbole as it pertains to professional athletes.

 

I mean, let's pretend all these QBs are rated like Madden ratings. If Taylor Heinicke is a 55 (he's probably better than that, just go with the example) that would mean Wentz would need to be a 110 to be twice as good.

 

Realistically Heinicke is probably a 65ish quarterback, mostly due to a lack of arm strength and height and decision making and in some cases accuracy but not all (but he has very high grades in mostly everything else such as athleticism, non measurables like leadership and having ice in his veins). 

 

Wentz is probably in the mid 70s. Let's say a 73, just for conversation sake. That's an 8% increase... Which is a decent improvement for a NFL QB. 

 

A Patrick Mahomes type is a 95% or so, which would be a 22% increase from Wentz. That's not even "double". So, we use hyperbole fairly often, which works towards the "if he's double the player he should double the wins!" agenda.

 

Realistically, this team won 7 games. If you are going at this just with raw numbers and not including variables such as schedule: An 8% increase in wins is 8 vs. the 7 we had last season. 

 

But even using that, the 8% increase in "overall" player level would also account for 8% better production from the receiving group in theory. 

 

So... yeah. It's kind of complicated. But that doesn't fit the "he needs to double the win total" agenda.

 

So when mistertim said there is a night and day difference between the two doesn't that mean Wentz has to be twice as good? You can't say half-a-night and half-a-day difference. This is where my stance was coming from. But I also said that 12-14 wins and not just 14. But in my predication thread I actually said 11 wins. That is only 4 games win improvement. 

 

I know there is not a night and day difference between the two and Wentz is not twice as good as TH.

 

[Mrshadow008]

9 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

 

 

So when mistertim said there is a night and day difference between the two doesn't that mean Wentz has to be twice as good? You can't say half-a-night and half-a-day difference. This is where my stance was coming from. But I also said that 12-14 wins and not just 14. But in my predication thread I actually said 11 wins. That is only 4 games win improvement. 

 

I know there is not a night and day difference between the two and Wentz is not twice as good as TH.

 

Look I’ve defended TH. Quite a bit actually. I think he’s a top half of the league backup. I don’t think there are a ton of back ups in the league that come in and do what he does last year with the schedule, injuries, and everything else. 
That being said was Wentz twice as good as TH last season? No probably not. However, Wentz floor is higher than TH ceiling at this point. TH ceiling is probably around the way he played during the 4 game win streak. Wentz ceiling (mvp level) is absolutely night and day compared to THs 

[zCommander]

31 minutes ago, Mrshadow008 said:

Look I’ve defended TH. Quite a bit actually. I think he’s a top half of the league backup. I don’t think there are a ton of back ups in the league that come in and do what he does last year with the schedule, injuries, and everything else. 
That being said was Wentz twice as good as TH last season? No probably not. However, Wentz floor is higher than TH ceiling at this point. TH ceiling is probably around the way he played during the 4 game win streak. Wentz ceiling (mvp level) is absolutely night and day compared to THs 

 

I understand. But his is not about defending TH at all. I am trying to quantify this difference with stats and the stats don't show a night-day difference though. Well at least to me. However, most of the stats does show, from last year, is that Wetnz is better in some area and a little less in other. That is all I am trying to convey here. It is not a bad thing. He has the tools to be a very successful QB. He was back in 2017. His performance has gone down a bit since after the injury. Maybe he will rebound this year to that form before he got hurt, well at least we hope so. He has been improving and did play better last year. But no night and day difference if you are going to lose your last game to the Jags and put your team out of the playoffs. So, my baffling stance will be in a holding pattern until then. 

[Mrshadow008]

1 minute ago, zCommander said:

 

I understand. But his is not about defending TH at all. I am trying to quantify this difference with stats and the stats don't show a night-day difference though. Well at least to me. However, most of the stats does show, from last year, is that Wetnz is better in some area and a little less in other. That is all I am trying to convey here. It is not a bad thing. He has the tools to be a very successful QB. He was back in 2017. His performance has gone down a bit since after the injury. Maybe he will rebound this year to that form before he got hurt, well at least we hope so. He has been improving and did play better last year. But no night and day difference if you are going to lose your last game to the Jags and put your team out of the playoffs. So, my baffling stance will be in a holding pattern until then. 

Yes but stats don’t tell the entire story either. Go back and watch the two Dallas games for example and look at Terrys stats. The stats (and cowboys fans) will tell you that Diggs had Terry locked down. The truth of the matter is between the two games Terry beat Diggs like a drum and should’ve had 2-3 long tds against Diggs. I’ve included two pictures to illustrate. In both Terry had Diggs beat early. Not only did TH wait too long to release the ball by the time he did Terry was out of THs range. Both balls were released late and under thrown. In both instances Terry had to slow up to wait for the ball. In 1 he got a concussion in the other he had to slow up and his and Diggs feet got tangled and it fell incomplete. There was also another instance in second game where Terry had Diggs beat deep down the middle on a post route and TH just never saw it.

 

Now is that to say Wentz automatically comes in and completes those passes? No of course not. However, Wentz size/ability to see over the line to go with the natural arm strength, means the probability of him completing those throws on a regular basis is much higher. Completing those types of throws on a regular basis also opens up the entire rest of the offense by keeping the defense honest. That’s likely going to equate to more yards and points by the entire O that won’t necessarily show up on the stat sheet for the QB. Sorry this was a long winded post just to say that stats don’t tell the whole story. 🤣

[zCommander]

20 minutes ago, Mrshadow008 said:

Yes but stats don’t tell the entire story either. Go back and watch the two Dallas games for example and look at Terrys stats. The stats (and cowboys fans) will tell you that Diggs had Terry locked down. The truth of the matter is between the two games Terry beat Diggs like a drum and should’ve had 2-3 long tds against Diggs. I’ve included two pictures to illustrate. In both Terry had Diggs beat early. Not only did TH wait too long to release the ball by the time he did Terry was out of THs range. Both balls were released late and under thrown. In both instances Terry had to slow up to wait for the ball. In 1 he got a concussion in the other he had to slow up and his and Diggs feet got tangled and it fell incomplete. There was also another instance in second game where Terry had Diggs beat deep down the middle on a post route and TH just never saw it.

 

Now is that to say Wentz automatically comes in and completes those passes? No of course not. However, Wentz size/ability to see over the line to go with the natural arm strength, means the probability of him completing those throws on a regular basis is much higher. Completing those types of throws on a regular basis also opens up the entire rest of the offense by keeping the defense honest. That’s likely going to equate to more yards and points by the entire O that won’t necessarily show up on the stat sheet for the QB. Sorry this was a long winded post just to say that stats don’t tell the whole story. 🤣

 

 

 

Two or three plays don't make a whole season. So I am going to file this under not a night-day difference at all. On the very first play of the second game if TH had thrown the ball to Terry's right shoulder instead of his left shoulder then that was a catch and a possible TD instead. So that is also what is called a throwing mistake and QBs make them all of the times. And the INT happened on that play and that showed up under the stats. So yeah that was a little frustrating as it was such a nice play too. But no guarantee that Wentz doesn't do the same. So your 3 plays are actually not a night-day difference. We are looking at 17 games played by Wentz compared to 16 games played by TH instead. There is a difference between the two. Absolutely. But again not night-day. 

 

If you are going to cherry pick plays I can do the same with Wentz too. Trust me he had some too last year. But that is not what my stance is about. 

[Mrshadow008]

Just now, zCommander said:

 

Two or three plays don't make a whole season. So I am going to file this under not a night-day difference at all. On the very first play of the second game if TH had thrown the ball to Terry's right shoulder instead of his left shoulder then that was a catch and a possible TD instead. So that is also what is called a throwing mistake and QBs make them all of the times. And the INT happened on that play and that showed up under the stats. So yeah that was a little frustrating as it was such a nice play too. But no guarantee that Wentz doesn't do the same. So your 3 plays are actually not a night-day difference. We are looking at 17 games played by Wentz compared to 16 games played by TH instead. There is a difference between the two. Absolutely. But again not night-day. 

 

If you are going to cherry pick plays I can do the same with Wentz too. Trust me he had some too last year. But that is not what my stance is about. 

Lol I’m not cherry picking plays. I’m giving two examples to make a point that stats don’t tell the whole story. Tell me this do you think TH puts up Wentz numbers in Indy last year? With Michael Pittman as his only receiving threat? With the 30th ranked o line in pass pro with two injured ankles? And since you say the stats don’t bear out wentz being twice the qb. How about the stats that do? Wentz had a WAR of 1.56 THs 0.7. Wentz was 9th in the league in qbr at 54.7 TH was 23rd with a 39.5. TH was sacked the 8th most times in the league to Wentz 20th. That’s despite Washingtons o line being ranked 6th in the league in pass pro efficiency compared to the colts 30th. If have them swap teams last year TH #s likely look worse and Wentz likely look better. The difference is night and day. From an overall physical talent perspective to an on field perspective 

[Conn]

3 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

 

 

So when mistertim said there is a night and day difference between the two doesn't that mean Wentz has to be twice as good? You can't say half-a-night and half-a-day difference. This is where my stance was coming from. But I also said that 12-14 wins and not just 14. But in my predication thread I actually said 11 wins. That is only 4 games win improvement. 

 

I know there is not a night and day difference between the two and Wentz is not twice as good as TH.

 

There can be a night and day difference between the two while NOT being realistically “twice as good” or twice as productive. You’re just saying wild stuff at this point. The margins in professional sports are slim as hell. 

[zCommander]

52 minutes ago, Mrshadow008 said:

Lol I’m not cherry picking plays. I’m giving two examples to make a point that stats don’t tell the whole story. Tell me this do you think TH puts up Wentz numbers in Indy last year? With Michael Pittman as his only receiving threat? With the 30th ranked o line in pass pro with two injured ankles? And since you say the stats don’t bear out wentz being twice the qb. How about the stats that do? Wentz had a WAR of 1.56 THs 0.7. Wentz was 9th in the league in qbr at 54.7 TH was 23rd with a 39.5. TH was sacked the 8th most times in the league to Wentz 20th. That’s despite Washingtons o line being ranked 6th in the league in pass pro efficiency compared to the colts 30th. If have them swap teams last year TH #s likely look worse and Wentz likely look better. The difference is night and day. From an overall physical talent perspective to an on field perspective 

 

And how many WR threats did TH have? Terry only? No TE. Half of the team out last part of the season due to Covid. I mean I can make excuses too. To be a night-day difference to me is if Wentz was a top 5 QB last year. 

 

This is posted on nfl.com. TH is ranked one below Wentz (18 and 19 respectively). Wentz was also sacked less too. Not sure where you are getting 20th most for Wentz? Also Colts total offense was ranked #11 compared to our #16 last year. 

 

 

Pass Yds	Yds/Att	Att	Cmp	Cmp %	TD	INT	Rate	1st	1st%	20+	40+	Lng	Sck	SckY

Carson Wentz	3563	6.9	516	322	62.4	27	7	94.6	165	32	42	9	76	32	227
Taylor Heinicke	3419	6.9	494	321	65	20	15	85.9	167	33.8	40	6	73	38	278

 

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by zCommander

[Voice_of_Reason]

16 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

QBs you win games because of

QBs you win games "with"

QBs you win in spite of/Unknown due to age

Interestingly, at different times last year Carson was all three of these types for the Colts.  There were several games they wouldn’t have won without him, Arizona being one of them.  And there were games where he was more complimentary, and games where he kinda stunk. 
 

Im not making a broader point on Wemtz, just that he was inconsistent, showed the ability to put the team on his ba k at times, and also came up short at times.  
 

We’ll see what he is like this year in a very different situation…

[Voice_of_Reason]

Regarding conversation about our backup QB who’s replacement was just drafter…

[Mrshadow008]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

 

And how many WR threats did TH have? Terry only? No TE. Half of the team out last part of the season due to Covid. I mean I can make excuses too. To be a night-day difference to me is if Wentz was a top 5 QB last year. 

 

This is posted on nfl.com. TH is ranked one below Wentz (18 and 19 respectively). Wentz was also sacked less too. Not sure where you are getting 20th most for Wentz? Also Colts total offense was ranked #11 compared to our #16 last year. 

 

 

Pass Yds	Yds/Att	Att	Cmp	Cmp %	TD	INT	Rate	1st	1st%	20+	40+	Lng	Sck	SckY

Carson Wentz	3563	6.9	516	322	62.4	27	7	94.6	165	32	42	9	76	32	227
Taylor Heinicke	3419	6.9	494	321	65	20	15	85.9	167	33.8	40	6	73	38	278

 

 

No Te? You wanna talk about no Te? The colts #1 te had 6 more catches 150 more yards and 1 td more than logan Thomas despite playing 11 more games than Thomas. He had 6 less catches, 2 more tds and 75 more yards than Ricky seals Jones despite playing 4 more games than RSJ. Go look at the numbers. And yes wentz got sacked less than TH hence the 20th MOST taken vs the 8th Most taken. That’s great he was only 1 behind him in yards. Wentz also had 7 More passing tds,   8 less ints, took 6 less sacks, a qb rating 8.5 points higher, a Total QBR 15 points higher and a WAR twice as high as THs. The colts were 9th in the league in pts per game Vs 24th for washington and and scored 7 more points per game I could care less about yards. All of those things are significant upgrades you wanna argue about a technicality about twice as good? Sorry but outside of yards and completion % the stats bear out that Wentz is a night and day upgrade to heinicke 

[KDawg]

6 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Regarding conversation about our backup QB who’s replacement was just drafter…

 

Excuse me... what? We didn't draft a replacement for the back up QB. We drafted a replacement for the all time Washington QB GOAT.

 

Get it right or gets a steppin'.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Taylor seems like a cool dude, the type that would come here and tell ZCommander to stop exaggerating his abilities.

[zCommander]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

Excuse me... what? We didn't draft a replacement for the back up QB. We drafted a replacement for the all time Washington QB GOAT.

 

Get it right or gets a steppin'.

 

Would love to have our own Brady.

 

[Koolblue13]

2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Taylor seems like a cool dude, the type that would come here and tell ZCommander to stop exaggerating his abilities.

No he doesn't. Seems like the kind of guy who downplays arm strength, gushes over how great the cowboys defense is and the kind of guy who whiffs on a TD because he would rather complete his childhood dream of doing a lambo leap, instead of helping his team, then quits on the next play.

 

But he seems like a nice person outside of football.

1 minute ago, zCommander said:

 

Would love to have our own Brady.

 

You mean Heinickes ****.

[zCommander]

6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

No he doesn't. Seems like the kind of guy who downplays arm strength, gushes over how great the cowboys defense is and the kind of guy who whiffs on a TD because he would rather complete his childhood dream of doing a lambo leap, instead of helping his team, then quits on the next play.

 

You mean Heinickes ****.

 

It is so hilarious that you are wrong in both of your statements. 

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by zCommander

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

It is so hilarious that you are wrong in both of your statements. 

 

The first one is not wrong, the second one couldn't be more wrong.

[zCommander]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

The first one is not wrong, the second one couldn't be more wrong.

 

1st. Taylor was an idiot on that slide and he had plenty of room to his right to just walk in untouched. Said so in the game day thread too. 

2nd. I will say it for the 3rd time. Would be ecstatic if Howell can become our Tom Brady- Who wouldn't. 

 

Apparently you guys don't know me really well like you think you do.

 

[zCommander]

9 hours ago, Mrshadow008 said:

No Te? You wanna talk about no Te? The colts #1 te had 6 more catches 150 more yards and 1 td more than logan Thomas despite playing 11 more games than Thomas. He had 6 less catches, 2 more tds and 75 more yards than Ricky seals Jones despite playing 4 more games than RSJ. Go look at the numbers. And yes wentz got sacked less than TH hence the 20th MOST taken vs the 8th Most taken. That’s great he was only 1 behind him in yards. Wentz also had 7 More passing tds,   8 less ints, took 6 less sacks, a qb rating 8.5 points higher, a Total QBR 15 points higher and a WAR twice as high as THs. The colts were 9th in the league in pts per game Vs 24th for washington and and scored 7 more points per game I could care less about yards. All of those things are significant upgrades you wanna argue about a technicality about twice as good? Sorry but outside of yards and completion % the stats bear out that Wentz is a night and day upgrade to heinicke 

 

In another words Wentz was couple of degrees better than TH last year...still not a nigh-day difference. To you it looks like that but to me he is an upgrade but not to that magnitude. It will be a different conversation when he can get at least 11 wins and win a playoff game. For 28mil that should be the expectation from a guy who is a "night-day" better than TH.