The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[RWJ]

4 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Yes. @illonepicked him up at the airport and they are on their way to Morton’s.

Found it ALvin:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I caught a fish this big:  

 

Edited April 15 by RWJ

[Dah-Dee]

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

I caught a fish this big:  

 

 

Who caught who? 

[FootballZombie]

6 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Any word on JJ McCarthy's visit yet, SIP?  Has it been cancelled or is it still on and if so when. 

 

Unless I'm mistaken the 17th is the last day for top 30 visits.

 

They are bringing Daniels in for tonight (15th) and tomorrow (16th).

They are seeing Maye tomorrow night (16th) and the day after (17th).

 

Without cutting into someone else's visit I guess you could see JJ on the night of the (17th) and then have an off campus/site dinner on the 18th or afterwards. I don't think he can be in the facility after the 17th.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Just now, Dah-Dee said:

 

Who caught who? 

Whom. 

[Jumbo]

4 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Whom. 

 

I've scene your game before.

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 minute ago, Jumbo said:

 

I've scene your game before.

You're 

[Jumbo]

2 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

You're 

 

 Sew or ewe!

[Llevron]

@The Consigliere I don't know man. It is awfully hard to argue in good faith that way. I don't honestly know if I feel like putting forth the effort to convince you otherwise if your starting place is 'nothing Maye does wrong is a big deal to me' and at the same time hold the position that 'All of Daniels flaws are huge and uncorrectable'.  I mean what's the point of even communicating at that point. 

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Yes. @illonepicked him up at the airport and they are on their way to Morton’s.

 

Heard the same.  Quinn and @illone and McCarthy are now in a meditation session, while listening to Bob Marley. 

 

If @illone is a true McCarthy disciple he should get the Marley reference.

Edited April 15 by Skinsinparadise

[Rolo Tomasie]

Man, Life has to be a lot easier as a Patriots fan (just like for most of the past 30 years) when you get to just take whoever is left. Or maybe the JJ-stans and trade-up mafias on their fan boards turn it into the same quagmire?

[illone]

 

One comp I've heard for JJ is Alex Smith

 

I've heard it a few times, and usually in a negative context. I know Cooley made this comp, among others, and I don't think this is the flex (anti-flex?) that many think it is..

 

I guess my question is this:

 

Are we projecting JJ to have a similar NFL career arc as Alex, or are we comparing them as college players?

 

I think in order to truly compare them you'd need to do the impossible and forget what you already know about Alex the NFL player and try to remember him as Alex Smith the college prospect. Very hard to do. Not to mention Alex had a pretty darn good NFL career by most standards (there's that damn winning % thing again).

 

I want to open up kind of a different angle to that discussion:

 

Should San Fran have taken Aaron Rodgers instead?

 

Another way to frame the question: Does WHERE you go matter?

 

I think most sane football minds would say "yes", Rodgers should have been the pick there. I thought so at the time and still think so now. I was in shock that Arod sat in the green room for so long. One of NFLs biggest mistakes ever. If only Green bay would have taken Jason Candle instead, maybe he would have ended up in Washington, but I digress...

 

To add another layer to it, of course nobody knows how their careers would have turned out had they gone to different teams. Arod could have struggled had he been thrown out there too early. My guess is he would have more super bowls, but does Shanny even get hired there if Arod plays well?

 

Ironically McCarthy (Mike) was the OC in san fran during that time, so maybe he sticks around or gets elevated.

 

To bring this full circle, I am viewing this draft through a 10-15 year lens.

 

I dont want to draft the consensus QB.

 

I want to draft the guy that 10-15 years from now we will look back and say "That guy should have been the #1 pick"

 

Maye to me is a weird mix of Mcnabb and Wentz. Hard pass. I'm not Merrill Hoge he will get you fired level with him, but I think there are too many holes in his game that need to be fixed for me to think he can elevate to what many here are elevating him to. I dont think he is going to get a 2nd contract with the team that drafts him but he is the type of kid that will be given too many chances due to size and arm strength.

 

Daniels is a skinnier RG3, destined for IR. As they say the best ability is availability. I am worried he wont be available. Even Jalen Hurts who was a similar player in college albeit stronger and stockier, is banged up all the time. I know the kid has shown some toughness over the years, but man that upright running style is gonna get him smashed at the next level.

 

I've yet to see advanced metrics that directly convey to NFL success so I think the jury is still out on the PFF stuff/EPA stuff. Too many variables.

 

Example: Jayden Daniels vs Army this past year gets included in his numbers even though it was painfully obvious they were stat padding and Heisman campaigning in that game. He should have sat at halftime. Michigan in that same situation would ABSOLUTELY sit JJ.

 

So how do you quantify this?

 

You can't, hence why I toss out most of those advanced metrics. Unless the schedule is the same so you can establish a consistent control group, you are going to get inconsistent data.

 

I try to keep things as simple as I can all things considered. 

 

Thats why I rely on NFL style metrics, or things I think DO translate to the NFL game. 3rd down conversion. Accuracy. Situational football.

 

This is why I am high on JJ McCarthy. I think Harbaugh was right when he said JJ plays "Quarterback" the best. I think he projects to a great NFL career if he goes to the right spot that can develop his strengths and fill in some of the mechanical issues he displayed previously. I've noticed many posters claim that Maye/Daniels will improve, so why aren't the same assumptions made for JJ? 

[Ghost of]

38 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

RIP Nordberg. We lost a real one.

[The Consigliere]

18 minutes ago, Llevron said:

You have to type 300 words a minute Jesus. OK give me a minute lmao 

I'm a fast typer, btw, I liked the Star Wars reference :). I just wanted to respond to it, because I think it's worth underlining, especially when we get to the silly point scoring period of ooof, you were wrong or you were right...sure to happen, that most of us are making arguments by degrees rather than by absolutes. We're all old or most of us, seen a lot, and for example from my perspective, I've missed on tons of QB's I've liked over the years, I loved Andre Ware 35 years ago, whoops, I remember how excited I was about Ricky Ervins, and than x10 about Reggie Brooks (having seen the famous run against Michigan live), I remember having no opinion on George, but being oddly high on Favre, but whatever genius I might felt for that, I also loved Dan McGuire, the San Diego State stud and brother of Mark. Whoops. Like, I've got 5 decades now of misses I can look at. I'm not 100% sure of anything in terms of prospects, and with QB's its far far less, which is part of the reason I've moved from basically a guy who had "his guys" so in '99 they were Culpepper, and to a lesser extent Couch, while I hated McNabb and McNown, I had no clue about Harrington or Carr, but I did like Vick and Brees, I had the '04 guys ranked Eli-Ben roth, and I didnt trust Rivers because so many of you semi-locals decades ago hyped them (and always seemed to hype maryland/Va Tech, Virginia, UNC, NC State etc prospects) and I always distrusted the local bias thing lol, in '05 I was all in on Rodgers having been blown away by him as a Cal alumn, and an Alex Smith skeptic, in '06 I was worried about Vince Young, so checkmark there, but I LOVED Leinart-whoops. I could go on, but it's basically utterly unreliable, for every "oooh, nailed that" there's another wtf?" so at this point instead of fixating on who I think will hit, I try to figure out who isn't worth investing my dynasty draft picks in unless they're a discount (so while I didnt like Josh Allen in '18, I still got him in an RSO league in round 3 which was a mega steal- less than 1 mill per year salary at QB through his rookie deal in a salary cap league is gold when they hit).

 

So basically, how I look at these guys like last year is more a case of, who has the holes I really am scared of, rather than who has the studly skills I really like and I go from there. Last year, I invested heavily in Richarson, got some Stroud, got a little Young because I couldn't figure out who to hate more between Strouds awful S2 score, and Bryce Young's lollipop guild size problem, and in '22, I didn't get any of them other than Willis (dual threat QB's are gold) and Howell, because Howell I viewed as a steal. In '01 I traded the only share I had of Burrow (whoops), got a couple of Tua (whoops), and got no Herbert (----!!!) The less said about '21 the better (props to me for getting Lawrence, and Fields and avoid Zach Wilson, but no props to me for getting a bunch of Lance. In '00 I traded the only share I had of Burrow (whoops), got a couple of Tua (whoops), and got no Herbert (----!!!) That about covers it...

[Rufus T Firefly]

6 minutes ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

Man, Life has to be a lot easier as a Patriots fan (just like for most of the past 30 years) when you get to just take whoever is left. Or maybe the JJ-stans and trade-up mafias on their fan boards turn it into the same quagmire?

Yes, living in New England, I can tell you that the number 3 pick is nothing but a source of mellow 'take it as it comes' zen-like relaxed takes as they calmly wait to accept whatever outcome occurs.

 

 

In case you aren't familiar with my personality or posting history:

 

[Ghost of]

4 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

This is why I am high on JJ McCarthy. I think Harbaugh was right when he said JJ plays "Quarterback" the best. I think he projects to a great NFL career if he goes to the right spot that can develop his strengths and fill in some of the mechanical issues he displayed previously. I've noticed many posters claim that Maye/Daniels will improve, so why aren't the same assumptions made for JJ? 

 

It's sort of an insult too because JJ McCarthy can absolutely zing it and takes chances (regardless of his INTs or completion percentage.) I don't see Alex Smith tendencies from him at all, though I get why some might say that (sort of but not really.) 

 

Another thing people aren't seeing is that with all the times JJ sat in the 4th, his numbers look much better when taken per quarter or whatever.  And people are still holding his injury (the one he battled through and won a national championship on) to his ankle/lower leg against him. "Why did they just run the ball the entire second half?" 

Well, McCarthy was hurt and it was the safest way in a week where they were ambushed by their own conference that's bought and paid for (oddly not by Michigan, you'd think so but it's not true) to get through to the end of the game.  His Maryland game was tough for similar reasons. I started to see improvement by Ohio State and Purdue but he clearly was having issues throwing.  

 

And frankly, I'm getting irritated with the arm comments.  Now, maybe he generated a lot of torque with his body for his throw at the combine but you'd think more people would be trying to do that. He absolutely does need more reps and proper tutelage and patience, but he's 21 and I think has the most upside. 

 

He's not perfect but he is better at moving in the pocket and using it to pass the ball and on the run he keeps his eyes downfield usually. He also avoids big hits, he has a sixth sense about avoiding the big crushing blows for the most part.  

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

34 minutes ago, Llevron said:

You have to type 300 words a minute Jesus. OK give me a minute lmao 

 

You know you’re in for a long all day battle when you go toe to toe with my boy @The Consigliere.

 

By the time you press send on a post he's already written the first chapter of his dissertation style response.

 

That man is a wordsmith, and a typing fiend.

 

Here's a vid of him in action (Skip the beginning and jump  to about the 34 second mark)...

 

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

18 minutes ago, Llevron said:

@The Consigliere I don't know man. It is awfully hard to argue in good faith that way. I don't honestly know if I feel like putting forth the effort to convince you otherwise if your starting place is 'nothing Maye does wrong is a big deal to me' and at the same time hold the position that 'All of Daniels flaws are huge and uncorrectable'.  I mean what's the point of even communicating at that point. 

That's fair, but I do think it's pretty easy to understand how and why people might be less worried about some traits than others.

 

As an example, because I play semi-high stakes dynasty (kinda), and to an absurd degree (I usually run 15+ teams), I pay a lot of attention to metrics that are connected to both bust rate and hit rate, and ignore traits, metrics and measuresments that aren't.

 

So some weird ones that I've mentioned before:

 

*A WR and RB 40 time isn't really a problem on the slow side unless it's 4.65 or worse, especially for RB's. Sure it's better to be faster, but as an example, the fastest WR times correlate to nothing in terms of hits while the historically most impressive WR's have record high 4.3, 4.4, 4.5 even Jerry Rice's awful 40 time. 

 

*Athleticism metrics are a key correlated trait w/a higher hit rate than anything other than draft capital use, with TE's, while with WR's its largely meaningless, including this: historically through the early 2020's the worst you were at the bench press, the better the career over the past 3 decades, if you were a WR....so who cares about bench press. 

 

*Drops aren't sticky at all as a trait, though we are all familiar with exceptions, Will Fuller, and going back to the eighties, Renaldo Nehemiah. 

 

A weird one: WR hit rate below certain weight classes were non-existent, but over the past couple of years we've gotten multiple hits at WR at sub 175 lb guys when for decades, it was Desean, and nobody else....so it can be sticky, until it isn't, too. 

 

Otoh, there are some things Maye does that are or could be sticky, like the accuracy issues at the first level, and the pressure to sack ratio. He may not be as bad as Daniels, but he's still clearly bad there too. 

 

But yeah, you don't need to invest time. I'm a bit weirder than others in that I can change my mind about a guy, and I do my best to avoid "take lock," as an example, hated Josh Allen, but Im not sitting here years later, pretending I was right, and its smoke and mirrors. Nope, I was 1000% wrong, though I still have no idea how he became more accurate in the pros than in college, that's befuddling. But yeah, you don't need to engage at all if you don't wish too. I am just very hopeful, with Daniels, if he is the pick, that there's hidden data, propietary, whatever, that can justify it, and not just bad process, that's my only hope with this thing, and in fairness, there is another hope, that I'm wrong, which I often am at QB. I could be totally wrong. Never been more wrong more consistently at any position I can think of then at QB in terms of hits afterall. 

[Chump Bailey]

15 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

I don't see Alex Smith tendencies from him at all, though I get why some might say that (sort of but not really.) 

 

Me either and IMO it's a very dumb comparison. 

28 minutes ago, illone said:

I've noticed many posters claim that Maye/Daniels will improve, so why aren't the same assumptions made for JJ? 

 

JJ's age is also a plus as it is for Maye. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

21 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

 

It's sort of an insult too because JJ McCarthy can absolutely zing it and takes chances (regardless of his INTs or completion percentage.) I don't see Alex Smith tendencies from him at all, though I get why some might say that (sort of but not really.) 

 

Yeah, I think that is just a lazy take based on him being a game manger type QB for Michigan and Smith being the first QB people think of when they think of game managers.

 

There is not much of a  comparison between the two, imo. 

[RWJ]

43 minutes ago, illone said:

 

One comp I've heard for JJ is Alex Smith

 

I've heard it a few times, and usually in a negative context. I know Cooley made this comp, among others, and I don't think this is the flex (anti-flex?) that many think it is..

 

I guess my question is this:

 

Are we projecting JJ to have a similar NFL career arc as Alex, or are we comparing them as college players?

 

I think in order to truly compare them you'd need to do the impossible and forget what you already know about Alex the NFL player and try to remember him as Alex Smith the college prospect. Very hard to do. Not to mention Alex had a pretty darn good NFL career by most standards (there's that damn winning % thing again).

 

I want to open up kind of a different angle to that discussion:

 

Should San Fran have taken Aaron Rodgers instead?

 

Another way to frame the question: Does WHERE you go matter?

 

I think most sane football minds would say "yes", Rodgers should have been the pick there. I thought so at the time and still think so now. I was in shock that Arod sat in the green room for so long. One of NFLs biggest mistakes ever. If only Green bay would have taken Jason Candle instead, maybe he would have ended up in Washington, but I digress...

 

To add another layer to it, of course nobody knows how their careers would have turned out had they gone to different teams. Arod could have struggled had he been thrown out there too early. My guess is he would have more super bowls, but does Shanny even get hired there if Arod plays well?

 

Ironically McCarthy (Mike) was the OC in san fran during that time, so maybe he sticks around or gets elevated.

 

To bring this full circle, I am viewing this draft through a 10-15 year lens.

 

I dont want to draft the consensus QB.

 

I want to draft the guy that 10-15 years from now we will look back and say "That guy should have been the #1 pick"

 

Maye to me is a weird mix of Mcnabb and Wentz. Hard pass. I'm not Merrill Hoge he will get you fired level with him, but I think there are too many holes in his game that need to be fixed for me to think he can elevate to what many here are elevating him to. I dont think he is going to get a 2nd contract with the team that drafts him but he is the type of kid that will be given too many chances due to size and arm strength.

 

Daniels is a skinnier RG3, destined for IR. As they say the best ability is availability. I am worried he wont be available. Even Jalen Hurts who was a similar player in college albeit stronger and stockier, is banged up all the time. I know the kid has shown some toughness over the years, but man that upright running style is gonna get him smashed at the next level.

 

I've yet to see advanced metrics that directly convey to NFL success so I think the jury is still out on the PFF stuff/EPA stuff. Too many variables.

 

Example: Jayden Daniels vs Army this past year gets included in his numbers even though it was painfully obvious they were stat padding and Heisman campaigning in that game. He should have sat at halftime. Michigan in that same situation would ABSOLUTELY sit JJ.

 

So how do you quantify this?

 

You can't, hence why I toss out most of those advanced metrics. Unless the schedule is the same so you can establish a consistent control group, you are going to get inconsistent data.

 

I try to keep things as simple as I can all things considered. 

 

Thats why I rely on NFL style metrics, or things I think DO translate to the NFL game. 3rd down conversion. Accuracy. Situational football.

 

This is why I am high on JJ McCarthy. I think Harbaugh was right when he said JJ plays "Quarterback" the best. I think he projects to a great NFL career if he goes to the right spot that can develop his strengths and fill in some of the mechanical issues he displayed previously. I've noticed many posters claim that Maye/Daniels will improve, so why aren't the same assumptions made for JJ? 

Great post!  He's 1B for now.  I have been in the Maye camp for a long time.  Many have shook off the fact that we had dinner the night before with JJ before his Pro Day and he was the first QB we spoke with the Combine and he will be the last QB we speak with for the 30 visits.  That could mean something or nothing.  Sure, we could have had dinner with the other QBs (JD and DM) but it wasn't made known to the social NFL media.  To me I think it means something.  I'm just a fan expressing my view points on this forum.  

Edited April 15 by RWJ

[RWJ]

9 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Yeah, I think that is just a lazy take based on him being a game manger type QB for Michigan and Smith being the first QB people think of when they think of game managers.

 

There is not much of a  comparison between the two, imo. 

JJ McCarthy has the cleanest footwork of all the QBs in the draft.  He is also was coached by a NFL QB directly and learned a Pro type system.  He also is a leader and a winner via Michigan.  They played together as a team and no one person was the "it" factor.  Just team which was instilled into they by Harbaugh.  That to me is huge. 

[FootballZombie]

44 minutes ago, illone said:

Example: Jayden Daniels vs Army this past year gets included in his numbers even though it was painfully obvious they were stat padding and Heisman campaigning in that game. He should have sat at halftime. Michigan in that same situation would ABSOLUTELY sit JJ.

 

I get the Heisman campaigning angle helping to build a mindset and methodology that forces the acquisition of stats, I've pointed that line of thinking out myself, but JD had 3 Passing TDs on 15 passes and 1 rushing TD in 5 carries in the first half and then sat the 2nd half vs Army.

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Chris Russell pushing Maye hard.  Between that and PFF loving Maye, I think we lose @Voice_of_Reason from the Maye camp.  I am afraid to even look to see what Thor thinks about it.

Thor is high on McCarthy. 
 

A broken clock is right twice a day. 

[illone]

20 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

JJ's age is also a plus as it is for Maye. 

 

 

Yep, sure is.  JJ is 5 months younger than Drakey.

 

One could EASILY argue that JJ is the most polished QB in this draft when you extrapolate for age/experience. 

[RWJ]

35 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

You know you’re in for a long all day battle when you go toe to toe with my boy @The Consigliere.

 

By the time you press send on a post he's already written the first chapter of his dissertation style response.

 

That man is a wordsmith, and a typing fiend.

 

Here's a vid of him in action (Skip the beginning and jump  to about the 34 second mark)...

 

 

 

 

Classic!  Never be another, IMO.