The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Dark Acre]

11 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

Well I went to college for 7 years and I'm called a lawyer.  But that was after 3 years of law school.

 

Btw, the rumors that we could pick Daniels are true.  That's because Chicago is taking Williams and we have the #2 pick.  So we do have the absolute capability of taking Daniels.  These rumors mean nothing.  Might as well say Washington could pick anyone except Williams.  Well, yeah.

Edited March 22 by Dark Acre

[Est.1974]

7 hours ago, Dah-Dee said:

Sorry @Est.1974 lol

 

 

If we never actually get the chance to pick Williams, then I’m fine with that. Can’t dwell on something that was unattainable. If CHI make it that way, and Williams has a desire to go there, so be it. 
 

I’m not closing the door just yet though….

[mh86]

2 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

I’m not closing the door just yet though….

I got you.

 

[Anselmheifer]

5 hours ago, RWJ said:

That is, it.  That's his ONLY criticism.  He can't take the shots the big dogs are going to put on him. We both know it.  That's my concern.  He's straight up talented and love the guy!  Seriously.  SEC is the best hands down but you said about the Pros being more advanced and when the dogs come to hunt, they are out for blood.  If we do draft Daniels, Peters and Co. to include most especially the coaching staff need to ensure he can slide before contact properly and coach him up to be the best and he's protected.  

It’s not his only criticism. It’s not even the one that bothers me the most. He has one of the weakest arms of the top 6 QB’s in the draft. He doesn’t throw over the middle or make tight window throws. His pressure to sack ratio is so bad, it would make him a historical outlier if he is successful. 
 

If Daniels had Drake Maye’s arm and made tight window throws, he’d be my solid QB2 if he weighed 190. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

2024 NFL Draft QB Rankings, Grades, and Profiles

2 hours ago

Hayden Winks

 

 

QB2 Drake Maye (1st/2nd Overall Pick)

QB Model: 95th percentile

Comps: Jordan Love, Deshaun Watson, Young Josh Allen

With a better supporting cast in 2022 under OC Phil Longo (air raid), Maye led college football in total EPA (+115.4), but things regressed as a junior in a sub-par environment with a new coordinator. His final season fell into the 78th percentile in QBR, 66th percentile in EPA per play, 93rd percentile in rushing EPA, and 48th percentile in passing EPA, so Maye's profile definitely requires projection. The good news is he's a toolsy player with ideal size, arm talent, and athletic ability. He doesn't touch Josh Allen in any of those categories, but he's not far off either. Like Allen, there are some questionable decisions sprinkled throughout his tape, likely because he's so young. If things click moving forward, Maye has borderline top 5 QB potential in the tier of Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud, Matthew Stafford, and Jalen Hurts.

Maye has flashed the ability to make every throw, primarily out of shotgun. He has the arm strength for go balls, sideline throws, and tight window passes over the middle of the field. He can also throw on the run to both sides because he's a physically strong athlete. On occasion, Maye can layer in throws with touch, though that's far more of a work in progress. His feet can heel click and his base can squat up and down too much, leading to inaccurate passes. Maye's 71% catchable ball rate on clean passes 15+ yards downfield is definitely below average, and his EPA generated on the classic timing routes underneath was the worst of the consensus top prospects:

 

What's frustrating is he actually does throw with anticipation and does attack the middle of the field. Per SIS, 10% of Maye's passes were digs or crossing routes over the middle. That only trails J.J. McCarthy and generally is a high mark. He can make those throws because he's tall (vision line matters) and is willing to take a hit in the pocket while the backside route develops. Maye simply has to be more accurate to have these Matthew Stafford like throws be a staple of his game. That said, Maye does hold onto the ball a little longer than needed at times, leading to some iffy sacks. His 20% pressure-to-sack rate is a little worrisome, and PFF credited Maye with 26% of the responsibility that there was pressure. The latter was 7th worst out of 71 Power 5 qualifiers. Compared to drafted QBs since 2000, Maye's EPA lost due to sacks is in the bottom 25th percentile. Once again, supporting cast and being young are factors.

While his feet, accuracy, and pocket awareness improve with more experience, Maye has a fantastic trait to fall back to: scrambling. He's finished 1st and 4th in first downs on scrambles in all of college football over the last two seasons. Last year's 52% first down rate on his scrambles was 2nd best, too, so he's not doing it recklessly. Maye has feel for when to take off and the athletic traits to finish off runs. Overall, there are similarities to Anthony Richardson's profile as a prospect in development with all the tools to believe in. He needs more coaching. He needs more live reps. But there are too many flashes of NFL throws and runs to not be enamored with the upside. And for his collegiate flaws, Maye certainly made a lot of full-field reads and wow plays with his legs.

 

QB3 J.J. McCarthy (Early Round 1)

QB Model: 85th percentile

Comps: Alex Smith, Joe Burrow if you want to dream in 2-3 years

Michigan led at halftime in every game with an average 13.2 point lead, so McCarthy only threw 22 passes per game as a true junior during their undefeated National Championship run. Typically that's a very bad sign, but Jim Harbaugh did the same with Andrew Luck at Stanford and more importantly, McCarthy was efficient when asked to throw. His EPA per play (93rd percentile), QB rating (95th percentile), and rushing EPA (63rd percentile) were well above average among drafted QBs since 2000.

His evaluation is complex because McCarthy was arguably the worst of the top-6 QBs based on his 2023 tape, but he also was 20 years old. His body is simply not fully developed yet. McCarthy is a lose athlete with plenty of line-drive arm strength, even on the move, but he needs to get stronger. There were deep passes that died out. There were also missed sideline throws because he was really stepping into things, resulting in the lowest on-target rate on sideline throws with 10+ air yards of the top prospects. While concerning, biology suggests those problems will age out once he adds 10-20 pounds to his frame in the NFL. If arm strength (and the footwork/accuracy attached to it) is his biggest flaw, there's at least hope it gets fixed over time. After all, McCarthy was a 5-star recruit out of the IMG Academy. There's a strong athlete in there waiting to be developed.

The Wolverines did put McCarthy into some tough 3rd-and-long situations because of their early-run tendencies, and he delivered. In fact, his 10.9 YPA on 3rd-and-6 plus attempts led the class. For someone so young, McCarthy was impressive working the middle of the field. He led the class with 35% of his throws going over the middle and actually had the most middle of field attempts on digs and crossers (45), despite having fewer dropbacks in total. These anticipation/progression throws, sometimes coming from the under-center play action game, are what makes him a potential fit for the growing number of Shanahan tree teams. Early in his career, expect McCarthy to stay within himself and continuously throw within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. His EPA per play on the classic timing routes (slants, comebacks, curls, digs, and outs) was the best in the class last year. He can reliably play on time, even if the go ball is a rarity.

McCarthy can feel pressure coming and is willing to take a hit in the pocket, but his ability to throw on the run and scramble are what could set him apart from the other Shanahan tree QBs. He averaged +0.32 EPA on scrambles or broken plays (3rd best) and can make tight-window throws when running to his right. That could be a nice combination in the play action bootleg world. His speed isn't even "sneaky athlete" level. He's actually fast and agile. There were some QB designed runs and he took off for impressive scrambles when things got a little panicked in the pocket. It takes projection to see the vision, but McCarthy checks a lot of the boxes for the modern NFL, especially if he gets a half or full year on the bench to develop. Don't be surprised if he's a top-8 overall pick.

 

QB4 Jayden Daniels (Early Round 1)

QB Model: 97th percentile

Comps: No Middle Of Field Throws Lamar Jackson

This is a very tricky evaluation because Daniels only trailed Joe Burrow in total EPA among all drafted QBs since 2000, and his +0.26 EPA per play is the best of all time. All time! LSU afforded him two elite vertical WRs and a quality OL, but Daniels made a ton of plays himself. For example, Daniels' final season rushing EPA only trails Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, and Malik Willis. His raw speed belongs in the L-Jax conversation, but can that translate at likely under 200 pounds? His "Johnny Knoxville" comparison was made for a reason.

Assuming he'll slide more than he did in college, the designed run game will be a factor in the NFL, and Daniels' scramble production is off the charts. His +0.63 EPA average on 154 reps with a scramble or broken play blows out everyone. It's an uncoachable trait that's difficult to find. Daniels did sacrifice some potential second-level throws at the top of his drop to make these scrambles happen, however. His eyes would often get to the right spot. He just wouldn't pull the trigger on some throws. That has to improve, which is a concern given his age (turns 24 years old next December).

Daniels is an accurate thrower to all levels. He led the class in catchable rate on throws 15+ air yards downfield without pressure, per Sports Info Solutions. Many of those downfield shots were wide open because Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas, but Daniels can throw the slot fade, corner route, and go ball with nice loft. If he has to squeeze a ball in over the middle, he can throw it with velocity, too. In general, Daniels has quality arm talent. There were pre-snap anticipation throws in Brian Kelly's spread offense. There are also backside reads after post-snap rotations against SEC competition. Like mentioned above, he wouldn't pull the trigger at the top of his drop routinely, and only 22% of his throws were over the middle. Some of this was his own indecision. Some of this was because the slot fade or perimeter go ball were too deadly to not "one read" things.

Ultimately, there are unteachable traits to work with, and Daniels' production is off the charts. Some of it will not translate for size and matchup reasons. It didn't with RGIII and hasn't so far with Bryce Young, for example. That said, there should be some very fun upside games because he has solid arm talent to pair with his elite speed. I'm just worried about the consistency of it when there aren't such obvious perimeter advantages. He's a classic boom-bust outlier prospect, somewhat in the mold of Kyler Murray.

 

 

 

[DiscoBob]

I know this has already been mentioned, many times... but it feels worth re-stating that Daniels is almost two years older than Maye (20 months...I think).  Maye is not going to develop Daniels level scrambling given more time.... but I think he could easily correct some of the misses and footwork issues if given more time.  He'd show out a lot better too if he transferred to a stacked program like Daniels did with LSU for one more college season... this weighs pretty heavily in my evaluation.  The biggest criticisms of his game are things we have seen prospects correct many times.  What you don't often see is a player who doesn't throw with great anticipation in college, developing that trait in the NFL.  Not saying it has never happened, but it's a pretty sticky trait.... you either have it or you don't.

 

 

 

Edited March 22 by DiscoBob

[skinsfan66]

7 hours ago, redskinss said:

 

That'll make a lot of quarterbacks winners won't it.

Running the ball and clock control will win games too keeping the other team off the field. Having a QB that moves the sticks in crunch time wins the big games too.  The (Harbaughs) teams play together. It's not that they have the best players on Defense, it's they have a lot of good players all over the team in every phase and they work together. LSU, Wash, Oregon have the better skill players.  Like the Ravens, Michigan coaches, player leadership, run, pass, block, play D, special teams...Complete game that's why they gave up 28 points 1 time and they played the best doing it. That's what Champions do! 

[Warhead36]

10 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Running the ball and clock control will win games too keeping the other team off the field. Having a QB that moves the sticks in crunch time wins the big games too.  The (Harbaughs) teams play together. It's not that they have the best players on Defense, it's they have a lot of good players all over the team in every phase and they work together. LSU, Wash, Oregon have the better skill players.  Like the Ravens, Michigan coaches, player leadership, run, pass, block, play D, special teams...Complete game that's why they gave up 28 points 1 time and they played the best doing it. That's what Champions do! 

What does any of that have to do with projecting college QBs to the NFL?

[DogofWar1]

 

 

[Est.1974]

I used the Joe Burrow line this week…

 

Whoever we land on, it’s absolutely fundamental that Peters and the FO play the long game with this QB choice. 

QB3 J.J. McCarthy (Early Round 1)

QB Model: 85th percentile

Comps: Alex Smith, Joe Burrow if you want to dream in 2-3 years

[mac8887]

I’d be happy with any of the top 4. JJ is going to be real good.

[Command The 414]

4 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

I’d be happy with any of the top 4. JJ is going to be real good.

totally agree and when the dust settles and we rejoin this conversation in several years about the 2024 Draft and the QB's selected, I've been saying it for a bit he will be the best QB of the bunch imho. People aren't high on him cause he isn't flashy and isn't in the kool kid club imho, but he does do everything right.  I would absolutely love for Peters to move back 1 slot get more picks and draft JJ at 3...or just take him at 2

Edited March 22 by Command The 414

[mac8887]

1 minute ago, Command The 414 said:

totally agree and when the dust settles and we rejoin this conversation about the 2024 Draft and the QB's selected, I've been saying it for a bit he will be the best QB of the bunch imho. People aren't high on him cause he isn't flashy and isn't in the kool kid club imho, but he does do everything right.  I would absolutely love for Peters to move back 1 slot get more picks and draft JJ at 3...or just take him at 2

He is so smooth, and throws one of the prettiest balls on the move I’ve ever seen. That article above was really telling. People look at Maye as being the over the middle, anticipation thrower, but according to the stats, JJ has him beat in that category. I like him a lot, he’s been coached by one of the best coaches in the world, that’s gotta help a lot in how he sees and understands the game.

[skinsfan66]

9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

What does any of that have to do with projecting college QBs to the NFL?

Was does those numbers of points giving up by his team have to do with the QB's?

[KDawg]

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

What does any of that have to do with projecting college QBs to the NFL?

What does having a great defense have to do with projecting college QBs to the NFL?

Edited March 22 by KDawg

[Est.1974]

Eugene Shen would love it in the thread. Data and analytics to die for.

 

All that more data and analytics more than likely increases your success rate in many aspects of building a football team. I’m not sure which QB to take at #2 is one of them. 

[Going Commando]

What trait does tracking pressure to sack percentage attempt to quantify, and does it do this without caveat?

[NOLA2DC]

9 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Have you literally ignored the other criticisms about his game that have been explained and repeated here multiple times?

They all have shortcomings, and I have repeatedly said I think all three must sit at least half a year (Caleb will probably be a day-one starter the way the Bears are going). There is no universal metric that predicts QB success, despite the efforts of some people to try and find something no pro scout or front office guy has identified. Ultimately, it's a preference. As many people you see who say they like Drake, I can find who say they like Jaylen. You have a preference, and I have a mind, and I will roll whoever we choose. The whole mob mentality does not sway me. 

[Est.1974]

Draft someone at #2 then sit them. No thanks.

 

 

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Eugene Shen would love it in the thread. Data and analytics to die for.

 

All that more data and analytics more than likely increases your success rate in many aspects of building a football team. I’m not sure which QB to take at #2 is one of them. 

I'm glad you brought up Shen.....I wonder what his analytics are saying about the QB's in the draft and how much weight it will hold?

[DogofWar1]

21 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

What trait does tracking pressure to sack percentage attempt to quantify, and does it do this without caveat?

I believe it's a shorthand for a combination of things.  Awareness, mobility, time to throw/release.

 

And I think all data has caveats.  What kind of routes are their receivers running?  What are they being coached?  Is it 1st/2nd down where a sack is a big deal or is it 3rd down where there's more incentive to make a play and the risk reward of taking a sack is more weighted towards taking the risk?

 

Some of these things we have stat breakdowns for, some of them we don't.

 

So generally I see people putting a rough "line" at 20% for being a red flag for the raw P2S ratio and that seems partially based on succesful QBs and partially based on the average of the vibes, seeing people go from high teens to low 20s %s.

[Warhead36]

16 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Draft someone at #2 then sit them. No thanks.

 

 

Yeah I don't get it either. Nobody drafted that high that sits and I've always believed you improve by playing. Nothing replicates live fire.

 

People point to guys like Mahomes and Jackson but they were drafted by playoff teams that already had entrenched high quality veteran starting QBs in place. We have Marcus freaking Mariota.

 

And both Maye and Daniels are good enough to play day 1. Neither are big time projects.

1 minute ago, DogofWar1 said:

I believe it's a shorthand for a combination of things.  Awareness, mobility, time to throw/release.

 

And I think all data has caveats.  What kind of routes are their receivers running?  What are they being coached?  Is it 1st/2nd down where a sack is a big deal or is it 3rd down where there's more incentive to make a play and the risk reward of taking a sack is more weighted towards taking the risk?

 

Some of these things we have stat breakdowns for, some of them we don't.

 

So generally I see people putting a rough "line" at 20% for being a red flag for the raw P2S ratio and that seems partially based on succesful QBs and partially based on the average of the vibes, seeing people go from high teens to low 20s %s.

Yeah you have to really dig into the context. Not all sacks are created equally or come from the same circumstances. A guy that runs into pressure is not the same as a guy forced to hold the ball on 3rd and long trying to make a big time throw.

 

Its a situation where, while the stat is useful, you gotta couple it with tape and real in game analysis to come to a conclusion.

[SoCalSkins]

8 hours ago, Dark Acre said:

Well I went to college for 7 years and I'm called a lawyer.  But that was after 3 years of law school.

 

Btw, the rumors that we could pick Daniels are true.  That's because Chicago is taking Williams and we have the #2 pick.  So we do have the absolute capability of taking Daniels.  These rumors mean nothing.  Might as well say Washington could pick anyone except Williams.  Well, yeah.

A JD is a doctorate degree so you are a doctor Dr. Dark Acre, esq.

 

 

Edited March 22 by SoCalSkins

[Dah-Dee]

2 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

A JD is. Doctorate degree so you are a doctor Dr. Dark Acre, esq.

 

From now on, I'm making the kids call me Doctor Daddy. Or Dok-Tur Dah-Dee, for the littlest one. Good to see those freaking student loans bought something worthwhile after all.

[Going Commando]

12 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

So generally I see people putting a rough "line" at 20% for being a red flag for the raw P2S ratio and that seems partially based on succesful QBs and partially based on the average of the vibes, seeing people go from high teens to low 20s %s.

 

Yeah, I think that 20% cutoff is based on vibes too.  To me, the stat seems super noisy, to the point of it not being useful.  Zachary Krueger's QB list ranked by the P2S% is all over the place, with no coherent argument for better QBs being better in the stat based on the results he found.  Kind of surprised at how uninspiring the list of names who are the best in the stat was.

 

I think there is too much necessary context missing from the stat for it to be a meaningful tool.  I think it could occasionally correlate to a prospect having superior awareness, like it seems to do with Michael Penix.  But the fact that Carson Wentz is so high on the list tells me that this correlation is also weak, and you can't safely assume that the stat tells you about the playing style/tendencies of the QB.

 

Honestly, it feels to me like the stat really only gives a murky picture of the offensive architecture of the prospect's college team.