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The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut


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2 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

My RG3 PTSD is too strong to get excited about Daniels but IF he's the guy and he lasts a full season without getting injured or taking nasty hits, I'll be less anxious!

Same here. The dude is like one Parsons hit away from becoming a soft taco.

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20 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

Maye lost his final 4 games in his first year as starter.

 

Maye lost to Clemson twice, AND Nc State twice. (two of the better defenses in the ACC)

 

Maye never went to the playoffs, and lost his only bowl game he appeared in vs Oregon in '22.

 

What makes you think he is more suited to be a consistent playoff guy over JJ who has won state championships in high school, went to the playoffs twice in college, and won the Naty?

 

Also, Herbert and Lamar are not consistent playoff performers either, so I think you might be setting the bar too low here.

 

If you want Herbert or Lamar Jackson, we are not the same.  I want Mahomes, Brady, Montana type QB. Leaders among men who dont choke in big moments.

 

I will be very interested to see what Harbaugh can do with Herbert. If he turns him into JJ McCarthy then I'd expect consistent playoffs every year. You know, just like he already did with JJ two years in a row.  If he drops back and throws it 50x per game, then I'd expect more of the same.  No playoffs, but hey he sure can throw a beautiful spiral. 

 

Herbert tends to crumble in crunch time with the game on the line. He is a borderline choke artist. One could easily blame coaching and system on that, hence why I am eager to see him in more of a run first system w Harbs. But up to this point, what exactly has Herbert done to prove to you that he is a consistent playoff guy?

 

The trap in this draft is falling in love with the consensus top picks and thinking you HAVE to take a chance on those guys. Just because everyone thinks Daniels and Maye are better prospects does NOT mean you HAVE to make the selection.  That's like saying "We have to take Zach Wilson because he is slotted at #2". You have to do your own due diligence, and if that diligence leads you off the pick then you have to make a tough decision and pass on the risky player.

 

JJ is the safer pick. JJ is the proven winner. JJ is the guy you can trust with the ball in his hands in the 4th qtr when you are down 10 and need to make a play.  

 

I get that JJ doesnt have the same VOLUME of pass plays as the other guys, but look at what he did when the game was on the line. He delivered clutch throws, first downs, and wins. 

 

JJ is the guy with clutch performances, 4th qtr comebacks, and consistent winning pedigree over his entire football career.

 

What has Maye done?  What has Daniels done? How many times do we need to see Heisman trophy winners and big arm prototype QBs tear it up in college only to flop in the NFL?

 

Neither of these top consensus guys have proven they can win on the big stage when it matters most. 

 

Not saying neither of those guys cant, just that they havent... not yet anyways.

 

JJ is a proven winner. At every stage of his career. If you are like me and you want a Brady, Montana, Mahomes type leader, then JJ is the pick. I dont care if the entire world thinks he is a reach at 2. It doesnt appear he will get past 4 anyways, or 5 depending on how far up the vikings are able to jump, so is it really a huge reach?


But to suggest that with Maye and Daniels you are getting consistent playoffs when they havent proven it is a bit of wishful hoping, dont you think?

 

I don't think winning in college means anything at all, period, the differences in talent from school to school and conference to conference are radically different. 

 

Mahomes Texas Tech squad went 16-21 while he was there.

 

Josh Allen's Wyoming were 16-11

 

Joe Burrow won a national championship so there's that. Stroud's Ohio State was good as well.

 

Justin Herberts Oregon were mediocre in 2 of his 3 seasons (16-10)

 

Elway's Stanford sucked, but Andrew Lucks Stanford was good. 

 

It just doesn't matter. Sometimes you get big time QB's at big schools who win a ton of games like Burrow, Stroud, Jim Kelly, and Stafford, and sometimes those guys are at meh schools like Mahomes, Josh Allen, John Elway, Ben Roth, Rivers, Eli and Drew Brees. 

 

You just don't know. You have big school system guys, that are just plugged in, and big school studs like Lawrence, and Stafford. 

 

Winning in college is a totally nebulous phenomenon that largely proves nothing at all meaningful about a prospect, nothing. 

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1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said:


Daniels is not a young rookie. He played 5 years of ball at two major schools with strong nutrition and sports science programs. He’s not going to be much bigger than he is now. He is who he is. 
 

If the reports are true that Adam Peters told Daniels he’s only a 5th round talent and his skills don’t translate well into the NFL when he was previously deciding to declare for the NFL, then by what logic has Peters had such a profound shift in his evaluation that he would take 2nd overall the guy he had as 5th rounder in his first and most important draft decision as a GM? 
 

If the pick is Maye and he busts and Daniels does well elsewhere, people will give Peters a pass for the most part in my opinion. If he chooses Daniels and he busts and Maye becomes a franchise QB elsewhere, it will forever undermine Peters’ credibility as a GM. Reaching for a guy and missing is far different than missing on a consensus blue chip talent. 

 

 

I've posted a zillion pro Drake Maye posts for months on end.  So Ive made it more than clear that's who i want.

 

Having said that I take pride in not twisting reality to what I want to happen.   Whatever is said is said whereever the bread crumbs are leading, they are leading to.  My opinion is irrelevant to that.

 

While I do think this team hasn't made a decision on the two QBs, I've heard enough noise including from Keim that Daniels is seriously in consideration.  Keim actually the last time he talked about this said if he had to bet, he'd bet they take Daniels.  Keim's guesses aren't usually wildly off.  Same dude who said months back this FO really really liked Quinn and Ben Johnson is no sure thing.  Albright who also thought Quinn had a good shot to get the HC job back when few others did, also thinks they take Daniels.

 

Going purely by noise at THIS time.  And maybe it changes.  But at a minimum it feels like while there aren't many bread crumbs but the few crumbs that exist seem to be leading to they will likely take Maye or Daniels.  And right now neither would surprise me.

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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34 minutes ago, illone said:

What has Maye done?  What has Daniels done? How many times do we need to see Heisman trophy winners and big arm prototype QBs tear it up in college only to flop in the NFL?

 

How many times do we need to see guys with massive production in college do absolutely nothing before we realize that production and winning in colllege is only part of the equation and a fairly small one at that.

 

Should we trade for stetson Bennett because he has two national championships?

 

I'm not anti mcarthy (I know very little about him) but I am very much in disagreement with your reasoning for wanting him.

 

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2 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

I remember people screenshotting RG3 in a Subway ad where he jumped on screen and zooming in on the pronation of his knees to basically say he was structurally ****ed. Lmao

 

 

Yes, I remember that too!

 

One guy claimed he was an expert exercise physiologist or some such.

 

He said if he was asked by the team pre-draft whether or not to draft RG3 that he would have told them it was a near certainty that he would be dealing with knee issues his entire career and that he was a high risk for a catastrophic injury.

 

Diagnosis by commercial lol

Edited by CommanderInTheRye
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8 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I don't think winning in college means anything at all, period, the differences in talent from school to school and conference to conference are radically different. 

 

It certainly means something to scouts and NFL executives. But yes, you have to put thing in context.  Winning record in a vacuum probably means nothing, but what if you start analyzing HOW those wins happened?

 

All of a sudden that becomes part of the mental makeup of a player, certainly something worth analyzing to project a player at the next level since that plays into decision making, situational football, and other intangibles like leadership and consistency...

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5 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

How many times do we need to see guys with massive production in college do absolutely nothing before we realize that production and winning in colllege is only part of the equation and a fairly small one at that.

 

Should we trade for stetson Bennett because he has two national championships?

 

I'm not anti mcarthy (I know very little about him) but I am very much in disagreement with your reasoning for wanting him.

 

There must be a contradiction in there.

 

The knock levied on JJ is his lack of production on tape.

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To kick on the McGinn stuff on Daniels.  Personnel guys from other teams.  It's based on what I recall, I read it a few days ago from someone else's account but I'll try to access it and post it.

 

One scout said he's the clear #2 QB in this draft.  Another to a better passing version of Lamar.  Another said he's gifted like Mahomes.  So it was big time praise.  And then another scout worried about his frame-injuries and said he wouldn't take him in the first round.

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1 minute ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Yes, I remember that too!

 

One guy claimed he was an expert exercise physiologist or some such.

 

He said if he was asked by the team pre-draft whether or not to draft RG3 that he would have told them it was a near certainty that he would be dealing with knee issues his entire career and that he was a high risk for a catastrophic injury.

 

I think that guy stayed at a Holiday Inn last night...

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1 hour ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

It's been said before and I agree that in some ways Daniels reminds me of Randall Cunningham-- that big tall kind of gawky, and wiry, non-football player physique. Cunningham had a weird frame but he could consistently handle punishment. Perhaps Daniels can too

 

Are you referring to his frame or does daniels remind you of cunningham from a football standpoint?

 

Frame I agree and it would be a good example of a guy with a pretty thin frame who survived the punishment.

 

From a football standpoint I'd disagree, Randall was like Muhammad Ali in the way he could make you miss, he had guys coming out of their cleats all over the field and despite taking some pretty good hits launching himself into the endzone was pretty good at protecting himself because he was so elusive. 

 

If I thought jayden had the moves of Cunningham I'd be like Maye who?

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Just now, redskinss said:

 

Are you referring to his frame or does daniels remind you of cunningham from a football standpoint?

 

Frame I agree and it would be a good example of a guy with a pretty thin frame who survived the punishment.

 

From a football standpoint I'd disagree, Randall was like Muhammad Ali in the way he could make you miss, he had guys coming out of their cleats all over the field and despite taking some pretty good hits launching himself into the endzone was pretty good at protecting himself because he was so elusive. 

 

If I thought jayden had the moves of Cunningham I'd be like Maye who?

 

Frame/stature.

 

Completely different throwing motions, arm strength and running style.

 

 

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Going by memory.  Basically to summarize McGinn's scouts takes.  If I recall it was just 4 personnel guys from different teams, when he does the longer one closer to the draft, if I recall its typically 8 guys.

 

3 of them gushed about Daniels, he's going to be superstar level gushing, one thought "meh"

 

3 of them gushed about Maye, he's going to be superstar level gushing, one thought "meh"

 

1 thought McCarthy is good (not great), 2 thought he was just OK, 1 thought "meh"

 

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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45 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

Maye lost his final 4 games in his first year as starter.

 

Maye lost to Clemson twice, AND Nc State twice. (two of the better defenses in the ACC)

 

Maye never went to the playoffs, and lost his only bowl game he appeared in vs Oregon in '22.

 

What makes you think he is more suited to be a consistent playoff guy over JJ who has won state championships in high school, went to the playoffs twice in college, and won the Naty?

 

A QBs won/loss record in College tells you almost nothing about them as an NFL prospect. The list of QBs who won a National Championship in College and had any kind of even semi successful NFL career is short. The list of QBs who won a National Championship and never even became a decent NFL backup is much longer. 

 

45 minutes ago, illone said:

The trap in this draft is falling in love with the consensus top picks and thinking you HAVE to take a chance on those guys. Just because everyone thinks Daniels and Maye are better prospects does NOT mean you HAVE to make the selection.  That's like saying "We have to take Zach Wilson because he is slotted at #2". You have to do your own due diligence, and if that diligence leads you off the pick then you have to make a tough decision and pass on the risky player.

 

 

This I agree with. What Draft 'experts', ex NFL QBs on Youtube or (heaven forbid) any of us think about draft prospects is irrelevant. What matters is how our scouts and decision makers grade and rank them. Mock drafts are what they tell you they are - 'mock'.

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13 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

How many times do we need to see guys with massive production in college do absolutely nothing before we realize that production and winning in colllege is only part of the equation and a fairly small one at that.

 

Should we trade for stetson Bennett because he has two national championships?

 

I'm not anti mcarthy (I know very little about him) but I am very much in disagreement with your reasoning for wanting him.

 

 

 

Im not advocating for Stetson Bennett 😂 

 

I'd urge you to look closer at McCarthy before disagreeing ;)

 

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Just now, illone said:

 

 

Im not advocating for Stetson Bennett 😂 

 

I'd urge you to look closer at McCarthy before disagreeing ;)

 

 

I know you weren't but your argument was, that was my point.

 

Instead of telling us that maye and daniels have never won anything and mcarthy has won championships at every level, explain why mcarthy is going to be a better quarterback at the nfl level because of the traits he possesses over the other two that translate.

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This is me being repetitive now. 😛

 

I seem to be one of the many here who place Williams at 1 like 98% of world of "professional" punditry and likewise have Maye and Daniels as the next two, with Maye being my preference. This hasn't changed since I started on it weeks ago but it did get a little more nuanced with respect to Daniels  after I digested more interviews and weeks of opinions in media and watched the various online videos. At no time though have I moved on my preference.

 

Also like most here, I will be excited and hopeful with Daniels if the fo wants him over Maye.

 

A subjective, but interesting  to me 🤓 side note, which has nothing to do with either guy football wise or otherwise, is Daniels being the recipient of what I'd call some persistent "fanboy" type support or "lobbying" energy which I don't see happening with Maye.

 

I know it's an unflattering label but I think it's reasonable and I only apply it to a small number. Maybe it's Daniels being the more "flashy" player in an era where "dual threat" QBs and the excitement they bring to "busted" plays creates a lot of buzz.

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37 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've posted a zillion pro Drake Maye posts for months on end.  So Ive made it more than clear that's who i want.

 

Having said that I take pride in not twisting reality to what I want to happen.   Whatever is said is said whereever the bread crumbs are leading, they are leading to.  My opinion is irrelevant to that.

 

While I do think this team hasn't made a decision on the two QBs, I've heard enough noise including from Keim that Daniels is seriously in consideration.  Keim actually the last time he talked about this said if he had to bet, he'd bet they take Daniels.  Keim's guesses aren't usually wildly off.  Same dude who said months back this FO really really liked Quinn and Ben Johnson is no sure thing.  Albright who also thought Quinn had a good shot to get the HC job back when few others did, also thinks they take Daniels.

 

Going purely by noise at THIS time.  And maybe it changes.  But at a minimum it feels like while there aren't many bread crumbs but the few crumbs that exist seem to be leading to they will likely take Maye or Daniels.  And right now neither would surprise me.

 

 


My main question wasn’t about your preference and who you have posted about. It was regarding the reports, if true that Adam Peters as a favor to Auyuk had a conversation with Daniels who was considering declaring for the draft previously and Peters told him he is at best a 5th round talent and his skills don’t translate well to the NFL.
 

How can Peters go from a 5th round evaluation of a player all the way up to the second overall pick in the draft. The first pick he is ever making as a GM and to actually select that player he previously had such a dismal view of? I don’t see how it’s possible. Yet many think it’s a coin flip for Peters between Maye and Daniels. I don’t buy it if these reports are true.

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1 minute ago, SoCalSkins said:


My main question wasn’t about your preference and who you have posted about. It was regarding the reports, if true that Adam Peters as a favor to Auyuk had a conversation with Daniels who was considering declaring for the draft previously and Peters told him he is at best a 5th round talent and his skills don’t translate well to the NFL.
 

How can Peters go from a 5th round evaluation of a player all the way up to the second overall pick in the draft. The first pick he is ever making as a GM and to actually select that player he previously had such a dismal view of? I don’t see how it’s possible. Yet many think it’s a coin flip for Peters between Maye and Daniels. I don’t buy it if these reports are true.

 

I think the report is BS. It's a major violation for a team official to reach out to a prospect currently in college. 

 

Regardless, if it is true the guy obviously worked on his skills enough to improve to being a top level prospect, there's simply no negative to that.

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1 minute ago, SoCalSkins said:


My main question wasn’t about your preference and who you have posted about. It was regarding the reports, if true that Adam Peters as a favor to Auyuk had a conversation with Daniels who was considering declaring for the draft previously and Peters told him he is at best a 5th round talent and his skills don’t translate well to the NFL.
 

How can Peters go from a 5th round evaluation of a player all the way up to the second overall pick in the draft. The first pick he is ever making as a GM and to actually select that player he previously had such a dismal view of? I don’t see how it’s possible. Yet many think it’s a coin flip for Peters between Maye and Daniels. I don’t buy it if these reports are true.

 

I would imagine had anybody taken polls on gm's draft grades for burrow his junior year versus senior year would have been drastically different and in that range.

 

A player can have the light come on over the course of a year and have his stock skyrocket, we've seen it many times in college before.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, spjunkies said:

 

I think the report is BS. It's a major violation for a team official to reach out to a prospect currently in college. 

 

Regardless, if it is true the guy obviously worked on his skills enough to improve to being a top level prospect, there's simply no negative to that.

Yeah I never bought it either. I mean the source was the friend of a son of one of the Junkies. Good chance its complete garbage

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20 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

This is me being repetitive now. 😛

 

I seem to be one of the many here who place Williams at 1 like 98% of world of "professional" punditry and likewise have Maye and Daniels as the next two, with Maye being my preference. This hasn't changed since I started on it weeks ago but it did get a little more nuanced with respect to Daniels  after I digested more interviews and weeks of opinions in media and watched the various online videos. At no time though have I moved on my preference.

 

Also like most here, I will be excited and hopeful with Daniels if the fo wants him over Maye.

 

A subjective, but interesting  to me 🤓 side note, which has nothing to do with either guy football wise or otherwise, is Daniels being the recipient of what I'd call some persistent "fanboy" type support or "lobbying" energy which I don't see happening with Maye.

 

I know it's an unflattering label but I think it's reasonable and I only apply it to a small number. Maybe it's Daniels being the more "flashy" player in an era where "dual threat" QBs and the excitement they bring to "busted" plays creates a lot of buzz.

 

 

I agree here. I attribute the Daniels "fanboy" passionate energy to a few factors: 1) a more electric/flashy play style as you mention, 2) a higher profile SEC program and the baked in awareness/support, and 3) a Tailgate-appropriate non-football-related factor (not opining one way or the other as to the merits there, just a personal observation).

 

And for all my personal anxiety over his body type, I do think he seems like a great guy, hard worker, etc. and have nothing against him personally. If we were picking 3, he'd be my choice in a heartbeat over McCarthy (I'm unimpressed) or Penix (who himself I'd rank higher if he didn't have the medical history).

 

The best part about this period, though, is that I genuinely believe in FO's ability to evaluate these guys and make the right choice, which is quite the opposite of years past. 

 

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13 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:


My main question wasn’t about your preference and who you have posted about. It was regarding the reports, if true that Adam Peters as a favor to Auyuk had a conversation with Daniels who was considering declaring for the draft previously and Peters told him he is at best a 5th round talent and his skills don’t translate well to the NFL.
 

How can Peters go from a 5th round evaluation of a player all the way up to the second overall pick in the draft. The first pick he is ever making as a GM and to actually select that player he previously had such a dismal view of? I don’t see how it’s possible. Yet many think it’s a coin flip for Peters between Maye and Daniels. I don’t buy it if these reports are true.

 

I bring up my preference because i am not one of the people here biased towards Daniels.  So i think I am not letting that cloud what am encoding.

 

I'll put more stock in Keim and some national reporters than an Internet rumor about what happened years ago.

 

But even if I took that internet rumor as a fact, yeah i don't think its nuts to change a take on a player.   Players can take it up several notches and change the narrative completely.  It's part of the story with Daniels specifically.  Similar to Burrow.   Kyle Murray came out of nowhere.  If you asked scouts what you thought of the players before they emerged it wouldn't shock me if it wasn't that kind. 

 

Do I think the late bloomer narrative turns Peters off because of his earlier take if its true?  Maybe.  But we got no clue.  I am not assuming it does.  And I've heard and read enough from personnel guys -- based on articles and radio segments to be absolutely sure that there are some personnel guys very high on Daniels.  Is Peters one of them?  I don't know.

 

But I've learned not to bet against Keim.  So if he's hearing (among others) they are likely sticking to #2 and both Daniels and Maye have strong chances to be that player taken, I take that seriously for now.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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26 minutes ago, illone said:

 

It certainly means something to scouts and NFL executives. But yes, you have to put thing in context.  Winning record in a vacuum probably means nothing, but what if you start analyzing HOW those wins happened?

 

All of a sudden that becomes part of the mental makeup of a player, certainly something worth analyzing to project a player at the next level since that plays into decision making, situational football, and other intangibles like leadership and consistency...

I don't think it does, really, I don't. You have to go way way way back to see that influencing things in any substantial way. Even back in 1983, they didn't care that Dan Marino's Pitt was much better than John Elway's Stanford, they liked John Elway more, period. They look for traits and tools and go from there. Just go through this century. 

2001: Vick's team was a contender for national championship's, Brees' Purdue sucked. 

2002: Joey Harrington's Oregon was good, but David Carr's Fresno State sucked.

2004: Ben Roth and Phillip Rivers and Eli all played for mediocre teams who were totally irrelevant in the college game (Miami of Ohio, NC State, and Ole Miss)

2005: Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers were neck and neck and played for Utah and Cal, 'nuff said (though that was the last great Cal team)

2006: Vince Young's Texas won it all, and Leinart's team lost the title game, but Cutler played for a nobody.

2007: Jamarcus Russell's LSU was studly.

2008: Matt Ryan played for freaking Boston College.

2009: Matt Stafford played for a studly Georgia team. Joe Flacco played for freaking Delaware (I think he was a transfer so I guess there's that), Sanchez did play for USC, but Freeman played for crappy K State. 

2010: Bradford and Tebow both played for title contenders.

2011: Newton was a title contender with Auburn, correct my memory if I'm wrong, but I don't think Locker, Ponder or Gabbert were leading anyone anywhere. 

2012: Luck was a winner, same with RGIII, but Foles, Weeden, Brock Lobster etc? Don't think so. 

2013: Bortles? Bortles??

2015: Okay you got me again, now with Winston and Mariota.

2016: But I got you back with Goff and Wentz.

2017: Trubisky won what exactly? Mahomes. Nope. Watson was the exception.

2018: Baker contended, but Darnold, Allen, Lamar, and Rosen didn't.

2019: Kyler contended, same with Haskins, Danny Nickels was a nope.

2020: Burrow and Tua yes, Herbert nope.

2021: Fields, Mac and Lawrence were a yes, Wilson, Lance a no. 

2022: Pickett Please. 

2023: Bryce and Stroud were yep, Richardson was a no. 

 

25 seem to have played for contenders (check my work), about 11 of the 25 studly school QB's were solid starters or better. 

32 seem to have played for mediocre or work schools and about 14 or 15 of the 32 meh or worse school QB's hit.

 

So basically, seems to me like, the league doesn't seem to care about whether you were a contender QB, since more than half of the guys this century weren't, and the hit rates are similarly a touch below 50% in the 40's in terms of starting caliber. 


Not super scientific, just my opinion, so flush it if you disagree, but I think there's a wealth of data, that while scouts and FO's would love for their favorite QB prospects to have won national title games or been in the hunt, it is in no way, ever decisive in why and how they choose who they choose, nor is it related seemingly to career outcome with these guys, and indeed, I did not list the absolute litany of big time school QB's who were total non-entities and went either undrafted, or late on day 3 and did nothing, of which there are an endless supply of to consider, if I'd included them (the Fromm's and Bennett's and Colt McCoy's of the world). 

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21 minutes ago, spjunkies said:

 

I think the report is BS. It's a major violation for a team official to reach out to a prospect currently in college. 

 

Regardless, if it is true the guy obviously worked on his skills enough to improve to being a top level prospect, there's simply no negative to that.


The reports seem very plausible. Daniels was roommates with Aiyuk at ASU and likely wanted an unvarnished opinion on his NFL chances before giving up eligibility. Peters wasn’t an agent making Daniels financial promises. He was giving Daniels his opinion as a favor to Aiyuk.  These conversations are common for players making these decisions. It’s not a major violation for the NFL team, it would technically be a violation of NCAA rules but it’s enforced less often than conversations between agents and teams before the legal  free agency tampering period. Happens all the time. 

 

i highly doubt Peters will have changed his view from a 5th to the second overall pick. I don’t see how it’s possible for him to make that jump and to turn in the card for the second overall pick. It’s not impossible but I just can’t see it. 
 

 

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