The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Conn]

21 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Interesting clip here with Burrow saying that sacks are an overblown stat to a degree. His argument being that if they are on third down, who cares, cause unless he gets the first its a dead play anyway. Obviously that depends on field goal range and if the plan is to go for 2 or not. 

 

Then to add to your current discussion (where I am just watching) about the prospects the numbers on sack percentage on what down came up. And I find it interesting if not a bit useless without actually knowing the mindset of the player (which obviously you will never know). 

 

Just curious if you guys find this interesting or not. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I see the logic. A 3rd down sack (as long as you’re not in your own endzone or risking leaving FG range) is like a 4th down INT when you have to let your guy try to make a play on the ball. Put extra decision-making weight on trying to make the play, because it’s going to be a turnover regardless. 

Edited March 19 by Conn

[FootballZombie]

I assumed they were meeting w/ JJ so all of our staff could laugh in his face in person.

 

Color me surprised

[Est.1974]

45 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Agree there, #2 won’t be obvious.

[SoCalSkins]

2 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Agree there, #2 won’t be obvious.

 

Do Bears go Daniels or Maye at 2?

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

I mean we met with like 10 different coaching candidates. You gotta do your due diligence on QBs too. I mean who knows, maybe Maye shows up wasted or turns out to be a closet racist or something and ends up off our board.

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, Panninho said:

Looking at some highlights, I am actually not so sure that Daniels' rushing ability will seamlessly translate to the NFL. If I look at the league today, the best rusher is obviously Lamar (who is incredibly fast and agile) but in that second tier you got Jalen Hurts & Josh Allen (strong as hell) and then probably Kyler Murray & Patrick Mahomes (who are incredibly shifty and manipulate defenders as well as anyone). Anthony Richardson who has only played a handful of games is also extremely strong. These guys do not look like Jayden Daniles rushing out there.

I feel like also historically, the strong guys (like Cam Newton) or the shifty guys (like Russell Wilson) give you a big sustainable advantage.

 

Jayden Daniels is really fast but I don't really see a lot of wiggle and lateral agility. To me it seems like he needs a lot of room to run efficiently. Kind of similar to Justin Fields (who is probably just as fast but 30lbs heavier).

 

 

 

Justin Fields ie ELITE as a runner. He's up there with Lamar - not quite as fast (though he's a 4.4 guy) but just a really really good feel for when to run and natural with the ball in hand. He had 1100 yards rushing in 2022 on 15 starts.

[Est.1974]

14 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

Do Bears go Daniels or Maye at 2?

They go JJ, obviously.

[Anselmheifer]

Can anybody find Drake Maye’s pressure to sack ratio for just 2022?

[Est.1974]

USC pro day tomorrow is it ? Wonder if we’re taking Magic along 

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

Mahomes is interesting because he's insanely athletic but in weird ways. Honestly, he's a lot like Roethlsberger.

 I had to read this again....Mahomes is a lot like Roethlisberger? Now that's an interesting narrative. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

2 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

 I had to read this again....Mahomes is a lot like Roethlisberger? Now that's an interesting narrative. 

 

In that both have massive arms and can make every throw while like upside down and facing the opposite end zone.

[MartinC]

45 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Agree there, #2 won’t be obvious.

 

But the 'most who presumed it was for Trey Lance' were right. 

 

We just don't know how our front office rank the QBs. How draft analysts, ex QBs or heaven forbid ES posters rank them is irrelevant. .All that matters is how our decision maker(s) rank them. By far the most likely outcome is we take a QB @ #2 overall. That's almost a lock. Then its very very likely that QB is one of Drake Maye or Jaden Daniels. IMO anything else (including a trade back) is a very low probability to occur.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Koolblue13]

I can't believe they just cut us off all cold turkey like that. We go from everybody knowing exactly who we'll draft to no clue? Seems unfair of this FO.

[FootballZombie]

25 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Can anybody find Drake Maye’s pressure to sack ratio for just 2022?

 

18.3

[CommanderInTheRye]

50 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I mean we met with like 10 different coaching candidates. You gotta do your due diligence on QBs too. I mean who knows, maybe Maye shows up wasted or turns out to be a closet racist or something and ends up off our board.

 

 

Listen, if Maye is the next Herbert,  I'll chauffeur him to Klan meetings myself. 

 

J/K (of course)

[mac8887]

55 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I mean we met with like 10 different coaching candidates. You gotta do your due diligence on QBs too. I mean who knows, maybe Maye shows up wasted or turns out to be a closet racist or something and ends up off our board.

I wouldn’t be to concerned, usually if we fly out to Michigan, it means we are not getting the guy we went to interview with

[Llevron]

28 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

In that both have massive arms and can make every throw while like upside down and facing the opposite end zone.

 

I knew exactly what you meant which is funny because I have never ever thought that before. And you are right, honestly. 

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Listen, if Maye is the next Herbert,  I'll chauffeur him to Klan meetings myself. 

 

J/K (of course)

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

Justin Fields ie ELITE as a runner. He's up there with Lamar - not quite as fast (though he's a 4.4 guy) but just a really really good feel for when to run and natural with the ball in hand. He had 1100 yards rushing in 2022 on 15 starts.

The pressure to sack ratio for him apparently set a record, can't remember if it was with the Bears, or Ohio State, but it was in the 40's, nobody's even close to it, agreed on him as a runner though, he's in the mega elite tier with Vick and Lamar. Then there's probably that RGIII, Daniels tier, and then you get the Cunninham, Steve Young, Elway tier. 

[BayouBrave86]

24 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

The pressure to sack ratio for him apparently set a record, can't remember if it was with the Bears, or Ohio State, but it was in the 40's, nobody's even close to it, agreed on him as a runner though, he's in the mega elite tier with Vick and Lamar. Then there's probably that RGIII, Daniels tier, and then you get the Cunninham, Steve Young, Elway tier. 

Fields is not on the Vick Lamar level as a runner. He’s more on the Josh Allen-Kyler Murray level and that’s still being generous. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

But the 'most who presumed it was for Trey Lance' were right. 

 

We just don't know how our front office rank the QBs. How draft analysts, ex QBs or heaven forbid ES posters rank them is irrelevant. .All that matters is how our decision maker(s) rank them. By far the most likely outcome is we take a QB @ #2 overall. That's almost a lock. Then its very very likely that QB is one of Drake Maye or Jaden Daniels. IMO anything else (including a trade back) is a very low probability to occur.

It's interesting to think about because I don't think it will ever be clear who they really traded up for. From the bay area, and get the bay area media here, being just a 3 hour drive Northeast from the bay, it seems like more a case of, they liked Mac Jones, and they liked Lance, and they didn't believe either would fall to their pick. I tend to think they traded up for Lance too, it was what I always thought, because of the ceiling dice roll, Mac Jones ceiling, unless there was a Brady level mental processing piece that couldn't clearly be evaluated, was always going to have a limited ceiling of around averagisih. He smells a lot like JJ does this year, except in many ways, more accomplished as a passer (had better weapons too). Lance was the dice roll, athletic, cannon for an arm, ideal frame, but not a lot of reps as a passer and raw as hell. I always thought the trade up was for Lance, because there was a 60/40 chance Mac would be there at slot to me at the time, but the persistent rumors that Kyle LOVED Mac were really, really strong. So I tend to wonder how they settled that debate, and who won and when. I still don't think it's clear, though Lance was always the more reasonable trade up target based on upside. You don't trade up like that for a high floor bet, but it definitely sounded like Kyle loved that guy. Otoh, the Niners made no move to pick up Mac this offseason either when he was available and super cheap. 

[The Consigliere]

6 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

Fields is not on the Vick Lamar level as a runner. He’s more on the Josh Allen-Kyler Murray level and that’s still being generous. 

Lol, that's partly fair, I got mired in my tiering and flubbed that. 

 

I think Fields is ahead of Allen though, I tend to think of Allen as Steve Young style, if Steve Young had played in a league that smiled more at running QB's, which it wasn't.

 

Should be:

Tier 1: Vick/Lamar Mega Elite

Tier 2: Daniels/RGIII: Track Stars/Elite

Tier 3: Fields/Kyler: High End runners

Tier 4: Steve Young/Josh Allen/Elway/McNair/Cunningham etc. Physical/athletic/size runners

 

 

Hopefully that's better. 

 

Part of it is just explosiveness, I think Vick and Lamar are their own tier there, Daniels and RGIII are really right next to them, but I don't think either are the open field runners Vick and Lamar were. I actually think Fields is a better open field runner, pretty easily, than Daniels or RGIII, but I also think its a little bit slower too, not quite their eye popping speed.

 

Young/Allen/Elway, I think were all guys that were in that 4.55/4.65ish runners, Allen and McNair are probably the slow ones here. I believe Young and Elway were 4.5 40 runners, Josh Allen was 4.75, I tend to think Cunningham, and McNair were probably 4.6's or 4.7's. But I think all the tier 4 guys kind of ran similarly: Physical and fast and elusive. All would try to break and elude tackles rather than go down easy with their physicality, but I think only Young, and Elway had track speed, I am fairly certain McNair and Allen had more TE speed, and I'm not sure about Cunningham. 

 

I think Howell was similar to Allen (4.73 40 versus 4.75), but with a lower speed score due to size, I'm curious what Maye would be, my guess would be 4.70-4.85. We'll have to wait another week+ to find out apparently. 

[Warhead36]

Cunningham should be tier 2 or 3.