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The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut


Koolblue13

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11 hours ago, Llevron said:


You still holding on bruh lolol

:ols:
 

Fields trade doesn’t change anything. For the Bears, I’m still at 25% they take Caleb, 75% they trade back with us and target another QB.

 

Big week coming up, USC pro day I think. I’ll re-assess after this weeks chatter….

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7 hours ago, Jags said:

 

I'm sure there's folks here who watch a lot of college football and have played a bunch, maybe even at high levels.  But yeah, I'll take Kurt Warner's eval IN CONTEXT -- meaning, again, that all he's doing is showing you film, telling you what he's looking for, then what he actually sees -- over any anonymous person on a message board

 

I admit I'm no expert when it comes to evaluating college prospects but I've learned over the years the wisdom of the crowd is often correct.

 

If our gm for the last 3 years did nothing but eat oreos in his grandmother's basement and once a year start a poll on extremeskins on who we should take with our first round pick we'd have ,Christian darrisaw, Chris olave and Christian Gonzales on our team right now.

 

My opinions now on who I want are weighted 90/10 in favor of how a certain group of evaluators on this board see them and they are usually mostly in agreement. 

 

I won't mention any names, don't want any big heads a few don't have much room left to swell.  😁😁😁

 

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1 minute ago, redskinss said:

 

I admit I'm no expert when it comes to evaluating college prospects but I've learned over the years the wisdom of the crowd is often correct.

 

If our gm for the last 3 years did nothing but eat oreos in his grandmother's basement and once a year start a poll on extremeskins on who we should take with our first round pick we'd have ,Christian darrisaw, Chris olave and Christian Gonzales on our team right now.

 

My opinions now on who I want are weighted 90/10 in favor of how a certain group of evaluators on this board see them and they are usually mostly in agreement. 

 

I won't mention any names, don't want any big heads a few don't have much room left to swell.  😁😁😁

 

We have a GM, now, who I trust to get it right, and has proven to be an elite talent evaluator. Ron was absolutely terrible at this and wanted to always go against the grain to be the one who uncovered the hidden gem instead of what was right in front of him. Most infuriating he would do this early, but sometimes late too such as trading up for a long snapper. He was just…terrible. So very happy to have competent proven evaluators on board and Dan removed to demand a pick here & there as we all know he did. We were a cluster **** and laughing stock to the rest of the NFL. Not anymore, and it feels damn good so far. 

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8 minutes ago, Riggo'sRangers said:

We have a GM, now, who I trust to get it right, and has proven to be an elite talent evaluator. Ron was absolutely terrible at this and wanted to always go against the grain to be the one who uncovered the hidden gem instead of what was right in front of him. Most infuriating he would do this early, but sometimes late too such as trading up for a long snapper. He was just…terrible. So very happy to have competent proven evaluators on board and Dan removed to demand a pick here & there as we all know he did. We were a cluster **** and laughing stock to the rest of the NFL. Not anymore, and it feels damn good so far. 

I’d throw in some caution here, QB is a different breed to get right. It’s even been noted in the draft thread about the draft history of SF on OL players.

 

We do have a strong collective group of minds now though so I’m certainly more confident, compared to previous regimes, that well actually take the right approach to things. No guaranteed success at QB, but they will make a move I can put trust/faith in.

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12 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I’d throw in some caution here, QB is a different breed to get right. It’s even been noted in the draft thread about the draft history of SF on OL players.

 

We do have a strong collective group of minds now though so I’m certainly more confident, compared to previous regimes, that well actually take the right approach to things. No guaranteed success at QB, but they will make a move I can put trust/faith in.

In the entire history of the nfl nobody is perfect and this staff won't be either, I hope and am fairly certain most people realize that but ya gotta take what's in front of you.

 

I desperately tried to get behind what Ron was doing because it's what I do, I hate going in pessimistic, did that for too long, but deep down I knew those players were reaches.

I'd imagine we'll now start seeing the board agree with more of our picks than we disagree with.

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After seeing what other QBs are fetching in trades, I suspect those that believe in Sam, forever now known as the Sam Huff Fam, feel somewhat vindicated in their laptop GM skills.

 

One thing I am curious about. For all the Jay talk, he used to want Kirk to throw the ball without fear of INTs. Which Kirk refused to do. Not even in practice. I wonder if EB ever told Sam to do the same specifically when INTs wrecked the back third of his season.

 

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14 hours ago, Destino said:

Agreed. There was chatter this past offseason that he could be an MVP candidate. Madness. He has been straight up garbage passing the ball.

 

We got more value out of trading Sam Howell for a reason. (He can actually throw the ball)

I took a lot bullets for Sam early and often throughout, but it became clear there was not going to be a trade down and keeping him on the team as a backup or spot starter with the free agency haul. He took a lot of shots in hear too. Good spot for him in Seattle.

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15 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

They’ve come out and loudly said Fields is the backup and won’t even compete for the starting job. 
 

Russ is better than Fields by a lot anyway.  (Except to Bram). I doubt he sees Fields as a remote threat to his starting.  

25 mil backup, Or playing it out.?

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8 hours ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

Pretty accurate. I'd add that many of these guys are often reading stuff written for them by media staffers.

 

I got the sense of that from watching some of their TV segments.  They were struggling to explain or even deliver their takes, which is what happens when it's a take created for you by someone else.

 

Guys like Simms, Riddick, Orlovsky, etc. who are do it all football analysts for their networks: color commentary on game broadcasts, panelists on pregame/halftime shows, contributors on the talk show programming like GMF and Get Up, etc. are not doing real draftnik work like a Dane Brugler is.  They're definitely not doing real scouting work as Conn put it so well.  Their analysis is meant for entertainment and rapid consumption.  Inconsequential narrative creation that tells the story of a seasonal segment of the NFL show.  It doesn't matter if what they come up with is dead wrong, as long as it is compelling and easy to follow.  Fans don't really remember or mind the bad takes, because there is always a fresh season of content to follow, which always generates new and interesting stories and takes.  The NFL Draft is now one of the premier story telling seasons in pro football, and sometimes the work these guys do is actually at odds with good evaluation, because clean and uncontroversial analysis makes for bad story telling.

 

We over here in our tiny spot of the pro football media universe are toiling away to find the truth in our evaluation and generate the best and most accurate takes that we can, and I think it's because we've become obsessed with this projection market due to the void in team building ability of the people who've run this franchise for 30 years.  Almost every year, we're stuck looking at the draft for like 8 months as an outlet for frustration and a path for hope.  It's quixotic because we have no power, no training, and very rough and incomplete tools.  But we actually get stuff right here, and incrementally learn and improve when we don't.  We started keeping records, and we started building annual consensus like a scouting team would in an actual NFL front office.  And watching football this way has been much more interesting and satisfying than just narrowly following a team you've almost never believed in for 30 years.  And for me personally, I feel the need to constantly "check the work" of the people running this franchise, as well as hold the pro football story tellers to even a relaxed standard of truth.  It's necessary for my sanity.

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15 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

25 mil backup, Or playing it out.?

Fields has a combined compensation this year of $3m, including roster bonus and salary. His salary cap hit is $3m.

 

The Steelers have until May 2nd to pick up his 5th year option, which would be at $22m.  They will clearly not do that.  

 

So, they basically used a 2025 6th on a backup QB who will be a FA at the end of the season.  Is it worth it?  Sure.  

 

There's no risk to this.  A 2025 6th for a backup QB is good value.  If he plays, and it turns into a 2025 4th, then wonderful.  

 

They can choose to sign him or not after the season.

 

The only risk would be Fields starts, is absolutely PHENOMINAL, and they have to franchise tag or sign him to a $40m/year contract.  Where they would probably have liked to have had that 5th year option picked up.  But, the chances of that are slim.  

 

So, eh.  They get a super cheap backup with some talent for this year.  

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1 hour ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I doubt they make the final decision until

they see them at their pro days and probably bring them in for a visit, as one of the 30 rookies they are allowed to. 

1000%. Washington needs to go over plays to figure out processing of these quarterbacks. What did they see and why did they go with that option. I think they have a hunch of who they will take but everything has to be confirmed. 

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1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Fields has a combined compensation this year of $3m, including roster bonus and salary. His salary cap hit is $3m.

 

The Steelers have until May 2nd to pick up his 5th year option, which would be at $22m.  They will clearly not do that.  

 

So, they basically used a 2025 6th on a backup QB who will be a FA at the end of the season.  Is it worth it?  Sure.  

 

There's no risk to this.  A 2025 6th for a backup QB is good value.  If he plays, and it turns into a 2025 4th, then wonderful.  

 

They can choose to sign him or not after the season.

 

The only risk would be Fields starts, is absolutely PHENOMINAL, and they have to franchise tag or sign him to a $40m/year contract.  Where they would probably have liked to have had that 5th year option picked up.  But, the chances of that are slim.  

 

So, eh.  They get a super cheap backup with some talent for this year.  

So they are playing it out? I see no risk either of the QB's maybe a comp pick for the loser down the road if some team still wants them.

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1 hour ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I doubt they make the final decision until

they see them at their pro days and probably bring them in for a visit, as one of the 30 rookies they are allowed to. 

No, they won't make their final decision until then.  

 

However.  They have a lean based on the film.  I'm sure of that.  What the lean is, I don't know.  But I'm sure they have graded the film, watched it 10 times, and they have a lean.

 

They're going to let the process play out, then they'll make the final decision.

 

And worth noting: Peters, Newmark, Quinn and Kliff, who are probably the people who would be in the know, aren't going to tell ANYBODY their intention except Josh Harris.  Like, 0 people.  Not the player's agents, not the media, maybe not their wives. 

 

It's possible one of them could confide in their dog.  But it's pretty safe nobody is going to get the information out of the dog.  Dog's are man's best friend.  The secret would be safe with them.  They wouldn't tell a cat though. You can't trust cats.  They're planning to take over the world.  (I know, I have 2 cats.)

 

All of the "noise" you hear from now until the draft will be the media making things up to fill air time OR things which are planted by the agents to drum up interest.

 

None of it will come from decision makers.  

 

I keep hearing media people say "they're hearing from people in the league they believe this or that."  "people in the league" is code for "agent of non-decision makers who don't know what's going on."

 

Be careful out there.  You might end up like Tin Foil Bram.  

Just now, skinsfan66 said:

So they are playing it out? I see no risk either of the QB's maybe a comp pick for the loser down the road if some team still wants them.

I'm not sure what you mean by playing it out.  

 

There is no way they are picking up Field's $22m option.  His contract will end after the 2024 season.  They'll pay him $3m this season.

 

Most likely he's on another team in 2025.  Maybe he'll get the Trubisky treatment, where a year in Buffalo out of sight, out of mind, he gets some good vibes and somebody takes a shot on him.  Maybe not.  

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3 hours ago, redskinss said:

I admit I'm no expert when it comes to evaluating college prospects but I've learned over the years the wisdom of the crowd is often correct.

 

I absolutely agree.  I wouldn't be here if I didn't think there was value to it.  Discussion is a big part of how I tend to work things out.  I want to talk out what I'm thinking and hear from people that have different takes.  I'm open to learning and having my mind changed.

 

But where I will push back is rare cases like this where I'm being told to completely disregard a big swath of people, some of whom I've come to trust over time, and some that just feel trustworthy to me because of their experience and credentials because *I* am by no means an expert.  I don't hold any of them up as gurus.  But I'm a football fan.  I like listening to knowledgeable and/or entertaining people talk about football.  It's not always about a mad scramble to find the best information possible, y'know?

 

So when I mention a guy whose take I found interesting and the response from a few people is immediately, "NO!  THAT guy is a festering buttblister and complete imbecile!  I don't care how long he played in the NFL!" It feels like a bit of an overreaction to me.  (Yes, I exaggerated a bit for effect, but not by all that much if we're being honest.)  😉

 

Not a big deal and I certainly don't mean any disrespect.  We're gonna disagree sometimes.  Still glad I found this place.

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On 2/18/2024 at 5:56 AM, RandyHolt said:

Can i predict all 3 top rated QBs will bust. Half joking aside it's not just about them as we all know.  While modern OCs FINALLY figured out to cater to their QBs and not the QB to their static dated dusty old played out playbooks, its still a struggle vs the modern day aggressive Spag DefensesTM that have figured out to dial up a confusing blitz at critical times in games. I admit I am jaded from being told who the best QB is in a draft and it being false so often so I just use my own eyes like most here. That all said I will likely never think a QB under 6'1" is the best QB available. Defenders are so freakishly tall and ends targeted now only if they are long, it simply does not bode well for the Caleb's of the world.

 

QBs of this era have to have size and be able to move, oh and throw on the move. 

https://theathletic.com/5314638/2024/03/05/drake-maye-vs-jayden-daniels-film-review/

 

I like this article by the Athletic. It seems to be very objective. Ultimately, they give the edge to Maye's.

 

I agree with the author.  Imo, if we do not draft Maye's, we could miss out on another Josh Allen. He had better potential than results in the college ranks. I really believe that Maye's will end up being better in the pro's than even Caleb.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Here’s more:

 

I want to see Reddick in that Parsons role, under Quinn playing for us. He's so fun to watch, I'd love to get him.

 

Sweat took a paycut to stay with them for another 3 years. It wouldn't surprise me to see Reddick do the same thing. 

Edited by Koolblue13
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