The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Command The 414]

4 hours ago, RWJ said:

 You don't gameplan by run the ball 25% of the time and throw it the other 75%.  You don't put the quality of OL out there, poorly coached that don't fit your scheme. Both had its effects on Howell and caused his game to spiral downward.  Big mistake.   IMO, most of Howell's bad play was due to a poor and injured OL and coaching and poor game planning by EB. 

totally agree w/all the above, and not that I'm advocating for Sam to stay and remain the starter, but the thing I would have liked to have seen was not so many quality QB's in this years draft (sitting at the #2 there are just too many QB's that imho are better then Sam) to pass on and let him be the starter again, I actually want to see him stay on as the back up, there's no way we keep/resign Brissett for what he will garner $ wise,  I also think despite a horrible ending for Howell last season he has shown he could be a back-up and useable if/when needed to step in.

Edited February 28 by Command The 414

[Est.1974]

QB interviews going to be very interesting. 
 

I don’t see either Daniels or Maye being a lock at #2. 
 

 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

QB interviews going to be very interesting. 
 

I don’t see either Daniels or Maye being a lock at #2. 
 

 

Maybe you need glasses. 😆

[Skinsinparadise]

Nate Tice, ex-college QB, who has his own show, on with Brugler among other draft podcasts freqently.

 

His concerns watching Daniels is exactly the same as I mentioned and some others here which some hit us back on and said we clearly never watched Daniels.

 

I personally watched Daniels for 6 games and watched those 6 give or take 3 times.  Does it make me an expert on him nope.  But I definitely watched him, i talked about it months back before the dude became a fad here.

 

I like Daniels better than Trice does.  i do think he deserves to be the #3 pick but I agree with his concerns.  And I double down that its Daniels not Maye who will have the bigger adjustment to the NFL.

 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/jayden-daniels-nfl-draft-stock-has-risen-more-than-anyone-but-will-he-live-up-to-it-021631977.html

 

Daniels as a runner: a double-edged sword

Let’s start with the most prominent aspect of Daniels’ game: his rushing ability and speed. When you watch Daniels, you are blown away by his straight-line speed, true angle-erasing acceleration that leaves closing defenders grasping at air. Daniels was incredibly productive as a runner in college, with over 2,000 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns in his two seasons at LSU. Daniels will enter the NFL as one of the fastest players at his position, but will he be one of the best runners?

First, consider the volume Daniels ran the ball. Since 2019 (which is as far back as TruMedia’s data goes for FBS players), no quarterback has scrambled more times than Daniels did in college; his 258 career scrambles not only sit firmly at the top, it sits in its own stratosphere. Only one other quarterback had more than 200 scrambles since 2019 and the player who ranks third, 2023 Cleveland Browns draft pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson, finished with 167 scrambles in his career, nearly 100 fewer than Daniels.

Jayden Daniels

QB - 

Even when looking at scramble rate instead of just raw data, Daniels has one of the highest numbers on record. His 14.1% scramble rate ranks third among the 196 qualifying quarterbacks since 2019, only below Liberty quarterbacks Malik Willis and Kaidon Salter, both players known for their poor pocket management and run-first styles.

Now, Daniels was very efficient and explosive on these scrambles, especially after transferring to Baton Rouge from Arizona State. But, his process of choosing when to scramble, along with his size (more on that later), does cause me some hesitation about his ability at the next level. This has nothing to do with Daniels’ sheer speed or ability to get the corner on defenders, which he easily did in college. It's more about his decision-making of when to tuck and run, his creativity as a runner and also his ability to consistently extend plays to throw rather than just look to scramble every time he got knocked off of his spot.

Daniels’ escapability is an asset, but there are times he uses his legs as an easy answer to default rather than attempting to operate from the pocket and progress to an answer with his arm, or to work a throw open from outside structure. Even looking at some of Daniels’ best scrambles, you see him passing up open options, sometimes while staring right at them, and instead calling his own number:

While Daniels was still creating explosive plays using his legs, he’s passing up easier answers that could result in a similar outcome while also saving himself from another blow from a defender. Taking a simpler answer and saving those hits on himself is paramount for Daniels to succeed at the next level. This “when to throw, when to run” equation is something that athletic quarterbacks always have to adjust to as they face tougher competition, but Daniels especially is going to have to learn how to adapt against defenders who are bigger, faster and smarter than anything he has faced in college. Those larger defenders are also where the size concerns come into play with Daniels.

Even before his official weigh-in this week at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis, Daniels has a slight frame that is going to make his durability and ability to pull out of defenders’ grasp in the pocket a huge question mark as a professional. While Daniels’ toughness will never come into question, his ability to take care of his body and when to play reckless are going to absolutely be questioned and harped on by whatever coaching staff he is paired with in the NFL. For better or worse, he has a style that’s more like Johnny Knoxville than your typical beanpole runners of the football:

Daniels simply won’t have a long playing career if he continues to play with this type of aggressiveness. While you love to see his willingness to lay it on the line, a skill to quarterback play is learning how to stay aggressive but to save yourself hits as a thrower and runner. Daniels showed that he will slide now and then, but it has to be a more consistent thing for him rather than chasing a few more yards.

 

Daniels’ weight might also be potentially under 205 pounds, which is concerning even before considering his height and frame (he was listed at 6-foot-4). It’s a short list of quarterbacks that have succeeded in the NFL while weighing under 205, and it gets even shorter when looking at quarterbacks who have played this century. Since 2000, there have been only five NFL quarterbacks under that weight to have a single season starting 14 or more games. I’m not even including another statistical threshold here, just straight up to start 14 or more games. That list consists of Aaron Brooks, Kirk Cousins, Doug Flutie, Jeff Garcia and Bryce Young (the only first-round draft pick in that group, too). If you look at quarterbacks of this size to start 14 or more games and average more than 7 or more adjusted net yards per attempt in a given season (a good barometer for top 6-8 quarterback play in a given season), that list is five Cousins seasons and a singular Garcia season.

Even if you drop the threshold to 6 adjusted net yards per attempt, which would generally rank in the top half in the league among quarterbacks in a given year, only Brooks’ 2003 season is added to the list (Brooks is actually not a terrible player comparison for Daniels). Daniels and his fellow 2024 draft classmate J.J. McCarthy, are more of historical outliers with their size than people realize. While many focus on the height of these players (even with Young last year), it’s really the weight that matters so much. It might seem arbitrary, but there are drawbacks from not having the simple weight and strength to combat strong NFL defenders.

 

 

...It is typically throwing over the middle where you see this hesitation crop up with Daniels. He is not entirely comfortable working between the numbers, which can cause him to hit his receiver a few yards later than he should ideally and is something that can be punished even more often against NFL defenders. Daniels threw over the intermediate part of the field (10-22 yards) and between the numbers on only 9.3% of his dropbacks, which ranked 163rd out of 196 qualifying college quarterbacks since 2019. The only quarterback to be drafted in the first two rounds to have a lower rate since 2020 was Justin Fields at 8.1%, and that's still an aspect of the game that Fields struggles with despite having more arm strength than Daniels.

Jayden Daniels

QB - LSU - #5

 

 

...Throwing the ball over the middle shows an ability to anticipate and navigate multiple defenders, showing an understanding of how to use touch and ball placement to throw a player open and create those juicy yards after the catch opportunities. If a quarterback struggles to consistently attack that middle body of the gridiron, it can lead to tightness and a lack of sustainability for an entire passing game (something that I wrote about with Jalen Hurts, another quarterback who doesn’t consistently work the middle, and the dropoff of the Eagles' offense late in the season). Think of a quarterback who doesn’t throw over the middle like a basketball player who can’t shoot 3-pointers; he better have other aspects of his game to overcome that lack of spacing that he creates with his inability to threaten the defense. Always throwing to the outside means you are betting on your outside wide receivers to win over and over again, something that’s a safe bet when you have two projected first-round talents out there, but it’s a little bit different when you don’t have a clear matchup advantage every single week. With Daniels, there are often times when he has an answer over the middle that he chooses to pass up to scramble once again or to find something late outside.

 

Again, I wouldn’t have as many issues with this if Daniels were less experienced or did not have the opportunities to operate this way. But Daniels has started a lot of games and played in a quality offensive ecosystem, and it’s telling when many of his throwing highlights are attempts over the top rather than some in-breaking route into a tight window between several defenders or throwing to a receiver on the move up and away from a defender. Even on some of his timing throws on the outside, his footwork can be inconsistent and he will end up taking an extra hitch, which again will give professional defenders more time to close and make plays on throws. The tweet below features a smattering of stop and hitch throws to the outside and a throw on a seam route to Nabers, but all feature Daniels with a little too much fat in his footwork, which results him being technically late on each throw:

 

...Even the slightest amount of pressure will cause Daniels’ eyes to come down in the pocket and start looking for running lanes: only 50.6% of his pressured dropbacks resulted in a pass attempt, ranking 193rd out of 196 qualifying quarterbacks since 2019. If Daniels gets moved off of his launch point, he is looking to run; 25% of his pressured dropbacks resulted in a scramble! When Daniels escapes outside of the pocket? He looks to run. Daniels had 83 dropbacks where he ended up outside the pocket in 2023 and 36 of those dropbacks resulted in a scramble. That means 43.4% of the time Daniels left the pocket, he was scrambling. Not that those ended up as bad results; his success rate on those plays was nearly 70%, but always looking to run is near-impossible to do as a long-term NFL starter. Even Lamar Jackson, a player Daniels has been compared to, was a big-game hunter when coming out of Louisville with a love for firing throws over the middle, while also being heavier and a more creative runner.

 

...If this all read as overwhelmingly negative, that was not my intent. Daniels has plenty of qualities that you love to see from a QB prospect: he is one of the toughest players you will watch at the position and it truly sparks his entire team whenever he is attempting one of his leaping maneuvers over (or through) a defender. He has a consistent throwing motion that allows him to maintain accuracy from the pocket and he has impressive ball placement to tightly covered receivers on static routes like curls and stops. He flashes good pocket movement and a willingness to hang in the pocket against the blitz, that toughness showing up again. He also shows an understanding of the concepts run, even if he is late at times, and protections and pre-snap operation, often pointing out protection assignments for his running backs and advanced play you love to see from any prospect.

But if you are taking a signal-caller with a potential top-10 or even top-five selection, then every blemish is going to be put under the microscope. I currently have Daniels graded as more like a late first or even early second-round prospect and a full tier below Drake Maye and Caleb Williams.

Edited February 28 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Predicting all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks for 2024 season

• 
  Seth Walder, ESPN AnalyticsFeb 27, 2024, 06:55 AM ET

---

Atlanta Falcons

Predicted 2024 starter: Kirk Cousins
Status: Searching for a vet

Atlanta makes sense for Cousins, assuming he's fully recovered from the torn Achilles he suffered in Week 8. He'd be going from one former Sean McVay assistant (Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell) to another (Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson). And the Falcons are closer to contending than most think. The roster is fairly strong and was held back by the play of quarterbacks Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. With a new coaching staff and a proven veteran quarterback in Cousins, the Falcons wouldn't only be NFC South favorites -- they could win a playoff game or two.

 

Chicago Bears

Predicted 2024 starter: Caleb Williams
Status: Rookie landing spot

We don't know what the Bears could potentially receive for the No. 1 overall pick, but I have a hard time imagining them trading out of that spot for a second straight year. To trade the pick would mean hitching their wagon to Fields, who hasn't had an above-average season yet in his career. So much of roster building is getting a team in the position the Bears are currently in, where they can draft a high-end QB prospect without trading up -- which is what I expect them to do with USC's Williams.

 

Denver Broncos

Predicted 2024 starter: J.J. McCarthy
Status: Rookie landing spot

Even with Russell Wilson having $39 million guaranteed to him in 2024, it makes sense for Denver to cut him because if they don't, they'll fully guarantee his $37 million salary in 2025. With the No. 12 pick, Denver sits in the middle of a stretch of teams -- between the Vikings (No. 11) and Raiders (No. 13) -- that also might be in the market for a rookie QB. I have Denver choosing McCarthy (Michigan), though it's a bit early to accurately decipher who could go where in the middle of the first round.

 

New England Patriots

Predicted 2024 starter: Jayden Daniels
Status: Rookie landing spot

Maybe the Patriots will trade down or become tantalized by Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and take him with the No. 3 pick. But this is a team that needs a quarterback after suffering with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe last season and is in range to get a high-end rookie without trading up. That's usually too good a position for teams to pass up, and LSU's Daniels fits here.

 

---

Washington Commanders

Predicted 2024 starter: Drake Maye
Status: Rookie landing spot

The Commanders lost their final eight games to move into the No. 2 slot in a quarterback-heavy draft, absolving them of the decision of whether to give Sam Howell another shot. Now they'll get a top quarterback prospect -- perhaps UNC's Maye -- without having to trade up and can keep Howell as a solid backup. Washington's stock is on the rise.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/39586301/predicting-32-nfl-starting-quarterbacks-2024-season-opener

[Est.1974]

31 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Maybe you need glasses. 😆

Very apt timing, my eyes are failing fast and an eye appointment is scheduled….

[DWinzit]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

QB interviews going to be very interesting. 
 

I don’t see either Daniels or Maye being a lock at #2. 

Agreed but also don't see 100% world of Williams being #1

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Agreed but also don't see 100% world of Williams being #1

It’s virtually impossible to gauge, I thought Quinn was very candid in that combine presser. All being equal, we are after a certain breed of player. Whether it be QB or any other position. These young QBs will need to nail the interview process IMO.

[Skinsinparadise]

Listening to Quinn, he says Adam Peters take will have the most influence on what QB they'd take.

 

they asked him for one word answers on the QBs

 

Caleb Williams -- DC

 

Drake Maye -- athletic

 

Jayden Daniels -- game changer

Edited February 28 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to Quinn, he says Adam Peters take will have the most influence on what QB they'd take.

 

they asked him for one word answers on the QBs

 

Caleb Williams -- DC

 

Drake Maye -- athletic

 

Jayden Daniels -- game changer

Wow, that gives off a Daniels over Maye feel

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

It’s virtually impossible to gauge, I thought Quinn was very candid in that combine presser. All being equal, we are after a certain breed of player. Whether it be QB or any other position. These young QBs will need to nail the interview process IMO.

 

Agree the interviews will be big.  Sheehan (big Daniels guy) opined that it might favor Maye.   Daniels is known to be shy.  Maye more gregarious.   But listening to Quinn just now it will be deeper than that, they will test the players some in the interview. 

 

 

7 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Wow, that gives off a Daniels over Maye feel

 

Could be.  He hesitated for Daniels.  For Caleb and Maye he spit it right out.   Felt to me he was searching for something different to say than athleticism since he just said a second before that Maye was athletic.   

 

but he also said its Peters call, not his.  Defining Caleb as DC -- not sure what to make of that. 

 

Edit:  Lurch just said same thought that I had which is he didn't want to say the same thing he just did for Maye as to speaking about athleticism.  But again, who knows.  Agree as a word (two words) game changer is certainly stronger

Edited February 28 by Skinsinparadise

[Anselmheifer]

15 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

 

Broncos - This feels like a Bo Nix landing spot

 

 

 

I posted in the draft forum about Joel Klatt's mock draft and a number of players he described as natural fits for a team. This was one of them. Klatt was apparently briefly a backup QB behind drew brees in NO and was saying how poor a fit Russell Wilson was for Payton, basically because Payton wants a point guard distributing the football on schedule. Klatt said that Bo NIx could be a really good fit for a Sean Payton offense. 

[skinsfan66]

9 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Kind of encapsulates my “what if we don’t absolutely love a guy” feelings. 
 

 

And if they did go that way with the picks, It could be a massive haul? It's a Blue Chipper year for the most important part of the team that does not happen often, as we are constantly remined. Just the flip side of it for a team that has massive needs, even a rookie QB. Odds look slim but it is there.

[DWinzit]

31 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Could be.  He hesitated for Daniels.  For Caleb and Maye he spit it right out.   Felt to me he was searching for something different to say than athleticism since he just said a second before that Maye was athletic.   

 

but he also said its Peters call, not his.  Defining Caleb as DC -- not sure what to make of that. 

 

Edit:  Lurch just said same thought that I had which is he didn't want to say the same thing he just did for Maye as to speaking about athleticism.  But again, who knows.  Agree as a word (two words) game changer is certainly stronger

Your explanation makes it more sound more neutral than your initial post...thank you for the clarification! 

[Warhead36]

Theyre just now diving into the process so I doubt any real judgments have been made on any of these guys one way or another 

[Llevron]

He was definitely searching for something to say, I think. But game changer is a great way to describe either of the 3 I feel. 

[skinsfan66]

8 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I think taking a shot at a blue chip prospect at 2 and missing is far more forgivable than playing it safe and trading down and missing out on a guy who becomes a stud.

If you do not take the QB at 2, most likely you will have 2'1's plus for the next couple years to get it right. If your picks hit at other positions plus having future picks to right the ship you are going to have a longer leash. The worst is to trade up and miss then you have no future to right the ship. If they get it right everybody wins, If not we all lose. I am on board for whatever happens.   

[mistertim]

23 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Theyre just now diving into the process so I doubt any real judgments have been made on any of these guys one way or another 

 

Yeah, that's why it's sort of silly to really look too much into things they say about any QB right now. Or any time before the draft, really. They're not going to come out and say "Oh yeah, we definitely like this guy more than that one"

 

But obviously that won't stop the over-analysis from happening. 

[Est.1974]

58 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Defining Caleb as DC -- not sure what to make of that. 

I’m clearly being stupid here, DC ??

[mistertim]

Just now, Est.1974 said:

I’m clearly being stupid here, DC ??

 

Washington DC. Where he's from. He's a local kid.

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Washington DC. Where he's from. He's a local kid.

Ok so just a reference to where’s he’s from, get it. 
 

I was thinking DC, Defining Caleb has the initials DC, I’ve clearly over thought that  or under thought….

Edited February 28 by Est.1974

[ThatNFLChick]

Quinn also answered for some players on the team (including Howell)

 

 

[Conn]

Associating Williams with DC when given a single word, and you’re the Washington team HC, is extremely awkward lol 

 

It doesn’t mean anything, just funny 

[spjunkies]

Daniels or Williams will be the pick. It's pretty bloody obvious at this point 🙆‍♂️

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, skinsfan66 said:

And if they did go that way with the picks, It could be a massive haul? It's a Blue Chipper year for the most important part of the team that does not happen often, as we are constantly remined. Just the flip side of it for a team that has massive needs, even a rookie QB. Odds look slim but it is there.

 

The idea that they can do anything in the draft is what's put out there by almost every team, every year.  I among others telegraphed this in advance -- its just boiler plate draft rhetoric that most smart teams engage in.

 

13 minutes ago, spjunkies said:

Daniels or Williams will be the pick. It's pretty bloody obvious at this point 🙆‍♂️

 

We'd have a fairly lazy group running this team IMO if they've landed on this already.  the process has just started.  Keim has talked to about this to death, this FO will study these guys relentlessly -- they are very thorough.   Interviews. Pro Days.  Team visits.

Edited February 28 by Skinsinparadise