The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Almost no chance Wilson ends up here. He'll go to a team that wants him as a multi-year starter. No way he goes somewhere that he knows will be replacing him soon. The idea is just silly IMO.

 

And I also wouldn't be surprised if Brissett tries to find a gig where he could end up as the starter.

 

Maybe we could kick the tires on Mariota.

Disingenuous 

Detractors 

Disciple of Daniels

Silly

 

this name calling towards me in this thread is getting out of hand…

[Koolblue13]

Just now, Est.1974 said:

Disingenuous 

Detractors 

Disciple of Daniels

Silly

 

this name calling towards me in this thread is getting out of hand…

I think it's the company you keep.

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

If we want a vet starter it should only be for 1 year while 2OA sits. Don't want to burn too many years off the rookie contract.

You get possesion of a great first round rookie for 5-7 at least. 
 

One year is fine. Go ask the Chiefs.

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

I think it's the company you keep.

And I’ve only suck a couple of beers so far. This could be a tricky night ahead 

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Disingenuous 

Detractors 

Disciple of Daniels

Silly

 

this name calling towards me in this thread is getting out of hand…

 

I didn't call you a name, I said the idea is silly, which it is IMO.

[Fred Jones]

4 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

If we want a vet starter it should only be for 1 year while 2OA sits. Don't want to burn too many years off the rookie contract.

 

I am hoping they start the #2 pick relatively quickly.  Guy needs experience, both good and bad.

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

You get possesion of a great first round rookie for 5-7 at least. 
 

One year is fine. Go ask the Chiefs.

And I’ve only suck a couple of beers so far. This could be a tricky night ahead 

You're right. I should have a ****tail.

 

I'm living in a 4 star hotel the entire month of February here in Miami, because of eye surgery, but it's over and I have one last appointment in two weeks, with nothing else to do. Gym and gin!

[Est.1974]

10 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I didn't call you a name, I said the idea is silly, which it is IMO.

I know. It wasn’t a serious post of mine.

[mistertim]

7 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I know. It wasn’t a serious post of mine.

 

Goddammit. I usually get those jokes, you asshole.

 

 

😁

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

You think meeting someone in person you are about to stake your professional future on might help?

 

Its not about velocity or mechanics its trying to get a sense of the person. Get between his ears - what are we getting here, is this someone I (the coach) can work with? How will he fit in the locker room? The in person visits are a crucial part of the process for any player but especially a QB. Having said that just like any other interview process (and I do a lot) you don't really know what you are getting until you have them inside the building.

 

Agree.

 

It's been said many times over the years, interviews are a big time deal, especially for QBs.

[The Consigliere]

15 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

We agree on most things SIP. But I do think Caleb is generational. Like a once every 25 year type prospect. Which is why Chicago wont trade the pick. 

Not quite that right? As an example:

1983: John Elway

1998: Peyton Manning

2004: Eli Manning (for a while, I don't think by draft day, but in '02 and '03 he had that hype)

2010: Sam Bradford (the craziest hyping I've ever seen, never understood it). 

2012: Andrew Luck

2020: Joe Burrow

2021: Trevor Lawrence

2024: Caleb Williams

 

I think those are the guys that got generational tages. People forget how crazily Bradford was hyped for years, he was actually expected to come out in '09 and stayed an extra year. I'm going back in the way back machine for Eli, and I could be wrong, but my memory is that he was hyped by some as an even better prospect than Peyton in some quarters. For me generalational guys are guys who in their draft positional cohort, are seen as uniquely special, they can happen more or less frequently than once in a decade, but I'm pretty positive that 6 of these guys had that tag for sure, and I add Eli and Sam who I believe people have forgotten as having received this tag. I will say, the most hype I've ever seen was about Elway, Luck, and Lawrence, and now Caleb, but Caleb is hated in a lot of quarters by fans, so that one sticks out as odd. But those would be the generational guys of the past 41 years in my view. Interestingly, all but two of them hit: Bradford couldn't stay healthy, and I never bought it, and Caleb is an unknown, the rest either hit bang average, on expectations or the ceiling. None were flat out busts (other than Bradford so far). 

[UK Skins]

Disciples of Daniels is a damn good name for a cult actually!

[The Consigliere]

15 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Or we just disagree. 

I will say this:

 

I'm definitely on the Maye bandwagon, and I view him as an in a different tier entirely, I view the top three as being in their own tiers, period, before the clump of 2 or 3 guys depending upon how you rate JJ, Penix, Nix etc), but it's worth noting and probably SIP notes this the best:

 

They all carry enough bust risk to make the confidence in the thread a bit odd.

 

Caleb on mental makeup and turnovers

 

Maye in forcing stuff and bad mechanics

 

Daniels in the ASU/late career blossoming/wispy thin/super talented WR's that either made him or he helped make (Burrow or Tua phenomenan sort of)/plust RGIII PTSD

 

Then there's the fact that nobody is good at evaluating QB's, nobody. People are sometimes good at sniffing out busts, to be sure, but nobody anywhere is consistently good at sniffing out hits. 

 

So part of the weirdness is that people are so confident in their takes, when what we are is really ----y at figuring out what is going to hit. We just aren't good at it. Period. 

 

I think what worries me most about Daniels, is he sends off my bust alarm, its not that Im sure Maye will hit, though I think he will, clearly that view is worthless, since I'm as bad as anyone at predicting hits, it's that like quite a few people, I tend to sniff out busts well, and Daniels scares the hell out of me. That's basically my where my aversion comes from. I think there's a very good chance he does bust, and I'm almost always right when I think that (Josh Allen was probably the last guy I thought was gonna bust that didn't and I had a damn good reason for expecting him to bust (ridiculous issues with accuracy). 

 

But in fairness, I'm 100% sold on the idea that I have no idea who will hit, so there's that, I'll just be very disappointed if they draft him out of fear. Simple as that. I'm not afraid of Maye almost at all, I'm a little afraid of Williams, a lot afraid of Daniels, Penix, JJ and Nix. 

 

But again, I'm fine w/you saying I'm wrong about who I like, because I'm wrong all the time about hits. So that wouldn't surprise me at all. 

[ThatNFLChick]

Some interesting situational stats

 

2024 @NFLDraft Quarterback Prospects
Performance on 3rd-and-long (seven yards or more)
 

4. Jayden Daniels, LSU
122.92 Situational Passer Rating
21-of-29, 261 yards, two TDs, zero INTs

 

6. Drake Maye, North Carolina
107.51 Situational Passer Rating
30-of-53, 421 yards, four TDs, zero INTs
 

14. Caleb Williams, USC
84.85 Situational Passer Rating
24-of-44, 314 yards, one TD, zero INTs

 

 

2024 @NFLDraft Quarterback Prospects
Performance on Fourth Down

 

1. Caleb Williams, USC
158.33 (Perfect) Situational Passer Rating
8-of-10, 177 yards, three TDs, zero INTs
 

T-3. Jayden Daniels, LSU
145.83 Situational Passer Rating
3-of-4, 40 yards, one TD, zero INTs

 

17. Drake Maye, North Carolina
63.54 Situational Passer Rating
3-of-8, 58 yards, zero TDs, zero INTs
 

 

2024 @NFLDraft Quarterback Prospects
Completions of 15 yards or more (season total)

 

3. Jayden Daniels, LSU
94 completions of 15 yards or more
 

4. Drake Maye, North Carolina
87 completions of 15 yards or more
 

6. Caleb Williams, USC
80 completions of 15 yards or more
 

 

2024 @NFLDraft Quarterback Prospects
Completions of 25 yards or more (season total)

 

2. Jayden Daniels, LSU
48 completions of 25 yards or more

 

3. Drake Maye, North Carolina
41 completions of 25 yards or more
 

5. Caleb Williams, USC
38 completions of 25 yards or more
 

 

2024 @NFLDraft Quarterback Prospects
Red Zone Performance
 

5. Jayden Daniels, LSU
117.78 Red Zone Passer Rating
29-of-45, 242 yards, 17 TDs, zero INTs
 

6. Caleb Williams, USC
116.13 Red Zone Passer Rating
36-of-54, 245 yards, 14 TDs, zero INTs

 

19. Drake Maye, North Carolina
91.36 Red Zone Passer Rating
26-of-54, 224 yards, 10 TDs, one INT
 

 

2024 @NFLDraft Quarterback Prospects
Performance when behind 1-14 points
 

3. Jayden Daniels, LSU
132.52 Situational Passer Rating
67-of-97, 1075 yards, 12 TDs, three INT
 

8. Drake Maye, North Carolina
100.86 Situational Passer Rating
47-of-82, 804 yards, five TDs, two INTs

 

12. Caleb Williams, USC
89.38 Situational Passer Rating
78-of-126, 980 yards, five TDs, three INTs
 

 

2024 @NFLDraft Prospects
Performance during tied games

 

6. Caleb Williams, USC
117.41 Situational Passer Rating
65-of-87, 808 yards, five TDs, one INT
 

7. Jaylen Daniels, LSU
116.27 Situational Passer Rating
66-of-99, 913 yards, six TDs, zero INTs
 

18. Drake Maye, North Carolina
90.78 Situational Passer Rating
70-of-122, 797 yards, five TDs, zero INTs
 

 

2024 @NFLDraft Quarterback Prospects
Performance when leading by seven points or less
 

1. Jayden Daniels, LSU
156.25 Situational Passer Rating
33-of-44, 739 yards, 10 TDs, zero INTs
 

2. Caleb Williams, USC
144.73 Situational Passer Rating
32-of-47, 560 yards, five TDs, zero INTs

 

9. Drake Maye, North Carolina
113.67 Situational Passer Rating
44-of-64, 614 yards, four TDs, one INT
 

 

2024 @NFLDraft Quarterback Prospects
Vs. last year's Ranked Opponents (min. 20 attempts)
 

2. Jayden Daniels, LSU
122.79 Passer Rating vs. Ranked Opponents

 

9. Caleb Williams, USC
93.08 Passer Rating vs. Ranked Opponents
 

17. Drake Maye, North Carolina
67.57 Passer Rating vs. Ranked Opponents
 

 

2024 @NFLDraft Quarterback Prospects
Performance vs. Conference Opponents (2023)
 

1. Jayden Daniels, LSU
141.69 Passer Rating vs. Conference Opponents
 

3. Caleb Williams, USC
117.66 Passer Rating vs. Conference Opponents
 

12. Drake Maye, North Carolina
96.99 Passer Rating vs. Conference Opponents
 

 

2024 @NFLDraft Quarterback Prospects
Performance against Power 5 Opponents (2023)
 

1. Jayden Daniels, LSU
134.04 Passer Rating vs. Power 5 Opponents

 

3. Caleb Williams, USC
117.66 Passer Rating vs. Power 5 Opponents
 

11. Drake Maye, North Carolina
97.24 Passer Rating vs. Power 5 Opponents

 

Edited February 16 by ThatNFLChick

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Preferred Option 1 - Trade up for Williams

 

Preferred Option 2 - pick Daniels at #2 and also bring in Russell Wilson on a 2 year deal.

 

I dont get the idea of bringing in an expensive vet like Wilson if we are picking a QB at #2. If we are investing in a rookie QB with that high a pick he's going to play a lot sooner than year 3 and if you have a high priced vet on the cap you lose the benefit of the rookie QB discount to put a roster around him.

 

Hard pass on Wilson in any case (not that he played that badly last year).

[ThatNFLChick]

Does Caleb Williams have an issue playing from behind? I need to look at more film but some of those numbere...

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, MartinC said:

 

I dont get the idea of bringing in an expensive vet like Wilson if we are picking a QB at #2. If we are investing in a rookie QB with that high a pick he's going to play a lot sooner than year 3 and if you have a high priced vet on the cap you lose the benefit of the rookie QB discount to put a roster around him.

 

Hard pass on Wilson in any case (not that he played that badly last year).

I think many people are really not seeing past 2024-25. I see what we are doing as a long term project, that will hopefully bring short term rewards. We have a stack of cap space and in reality a stack of draft picks.

 

We have overloaded on staff. QB is by far the most important position we need to address, as Peters has said. Not sure we trot out a #2 pick QB and let him get buried alive. 
 

Now picking Caleb at #1 is a different story.

[BayouBrave86]

2 hours ago, redskinss said:

Lamar is an excellent quarterback, he was actually my fantasy quarterback this year so I got a pretty good look at him all year and he had a great year but is he taking the nfl by storm?

Is that the type of player that's taking the nfl by storm?

 

I wouldn't compare him and mahomes (who is taking the nfl by storm) at all.

Lamar is still a very effective runner despite not being as electric as he once was and he's very efficient passing the ball but does he elevate the team or does his dual threat ability make him look like a better passer than he really is because it's so much harder to defend Thereby opening up holes in the defense that otherwise might not be there for a pure pocket passer.

Now that's not intended to be a knock on Lamar, his dual threat ability being a liability for the secondary and making it easier for him to pass is a huge asset but when a defense is able to take the running away and still guard the zones in the defense like Kansas city did or when you inevitably lose that electric ability with your legs you tend to get exposed more than someone who just picks apart your defense with his pure arm talent.

Even if you only go back 20 years the championship level quarterback conversation is still dominated by guys who shred defenses with their arms and minds than with their legs.

Now if a guy ever comes out with Lamars legs marinos arm and Bradys mind, that dude is gonna win 20 championships but until that day comes I'm still in the mindset that pure arm talent trumps dual threat when it comes to winning championships.

That’s what I mean though. Daniels is a much better passer than Lamar and will shred defenses with his arm if he has to. That’s why I think he’s going to be everything the media pretends Lamar to be. Lamar and Monken got away from what makes him so successful against the Chiefs. Lamar always comes up short in the playoffs too. I’m not that impressed with Lamar’s passing. He was outside the top ten in both passing yards and TDs. I think Jayden can has the ability to be top 5 in both. And that combination with his running ability will have him on a Stroud like first season. That’s what I envision anyway. Could be dead wrong but that’s what I truly think will happen. 

[ThatNFLChick]

 

[srtman04]

I'd only take Wilson on vet minimum plus incentives deal ONLY.  We need to invest in our future,  not the past.  

[Dah-Dee]

3 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

Daniels is a much better passer than Lamar and will shred defenses with his arm if he has to. 

 

Erm. Now I grew up in Baton Rouge, been an LSU fan for decades, and decades and decades and decades (sigh), watched every LSU game in 2023, love watching Daniels create so much excitement out there... but no way I agree he's a better passer than Lamar Jackson. Jackson has a cannon and can fit throws into windows Daniels will just never be able to hit. Daniels is good at dropping fades and bombs right into the basket, and that's definitely a skill most others in this draft can't touch, but overall Daniels as a passer is .... pretty good. Not great. 

 

I still think Maye is the most Mahomes-like QB in this draft and therefore is the guy Kingsbury will want to work with. 

[mistertim]

I'd think that people who are about to become professional athletes (and who have already mostly been under the spotlight since their high school days) would have a bit thicker skin than to let the results of a test leaking emotionally damage them.

 

I think it's more likely that the agents know that bad results could potentially affect draft stock, which they don't want, as that could mean less money for them.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

You get possesion of a great first round rookie for 5-7 at least. 
 

One year is fine. Go ask the Chiefs.

And I’ve only suck a couple of beers so far. This could be a tricky night ahead 

#2OA is not sitting for a year

 

Also huge pass on commanders country, lets ride

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, mistertim said:

I'd think that people who are about to become professional athletes (and who have already mostly been under the spotlight since their high school days) would have a bit thicker skin than to let the results of a test leaking emotionally damage them.

 

I think it's more likely that the agents know that bad results could potentially affect draft stock, which they don't want, as that could mean less money for them.

 

I mean, considering what happened with CJ Stroud I don't blame anyone for advising their players not to take the test. 

[SkinsFTW]

34 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Not quite that right? As an example:

1983: John Elway

1998: Peyton Manning

2004: Eli Manning (for a while, I don't think by draft day, but in '02 and '03 he had that hype)

2010: Sam Bradford (the craziest hyping I've ever seen, never understood it). 

2012: Andrew Luck

2020:  Joe Burrow

2021: Trevor Lawrence

2024: Caleb Williams

 

 

You Forgot Jeff George, and probably Aikman too. Maybe also Bledsoe too since you put Burrow and Bradford on the list. Burrow was a 1 year wonder at LSU I don't know if he was really up there with those other guys. Bradford at least did it twice.

[Conn]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I'd think that people who are about to become professional athletes (and who have already mostly been under the spotlight since their high school days) would have a bit thicker skin than to let the results of a test leaking emotionally damage them.

 

I think it's more likely that the agents know that bad results could potentially affect draft stock, which they don't want, as that could mean less money for them.

For sure.

 

But also, the test seems to be pointless and they just don’t want to say that. It’s at least arguably a waste of time and potentially just adds an errant data point to the pool of information teams are using.