The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[PlayAction]

1 hour ago, FlyBigBeard said:

What's it? Would take way more then that. A 2nd a 2025 1st and some other picks? Need multiple second round and multiple first round picks plus (other picks) 13th would knock you out of any sure pro bowl talent. And just get you a hopefully sure starter. 

 

There is no sure pro-bowl talent.  A trade is based upon the pick value difference between #2 and #13 AND what you think the true value is of the actual players that will be available from 1-13 on your draft board.  A 2nd round pick and next year's first is NOT the value difference between #2 and #13.  The remaining difference has to be filled with something but that's the GMs job to negotiate - he may want player(s), draft picks this year or next year or two years out.  The "we can't win without this particular guy" mentality is how the Skins were handicapped for a decade from the bad RG3 trade.  

[triggered]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Hard pass on both those. If Im trading down its under the assumption that Im running it back with Howell and setting myself up with ammunition in future years.

 

But Id still rather stay at 2. Its just not likely were gonna have a shot at a potential superstar QB again anytime soon barring some crazy good fortune.

And if they trade back, we get 2 #1's next year enough to get a QB if Howell doesn't pay off.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, triggered said:

And if they trade back, we get 2 #1's next year enough to get a QB if Howell doesn't pay off.

Who is giving us two #1s next year?

[Skinsinparadise]

If they traded down Peters better be VERY confident that neither Maye or Daniels are franchise QBs.  Because if this team stays in the QB wildnerness when they passed over another franchise QB -- it will be adios as far as am concerned for Peters.   The goal for me isn't to find our way back to 9-8 but to be a real NFL force that are constantly in the playoffs like most teams who have franchise QBs. 

 

Like I've said before I don't care that there isn't 100% consensus from fans about these QBs or even from mock draft types.  When does that ever happen?  Some act like this is the first time there isn't 100% consensus so its a red flag but its like that just about every year about every college QB.

 

Having Klingsbury in the mix aides to my confidence that they make a smart move as to the QB spot.  I've digested enough about him to get the vibe that his superpower is finding QBs and developing them. 

Edited February 7 by Skinsinparadise

[alaroche04]

Trading down would be a very very bad move.

[triggered]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Who is giving us two #1s next year?

Sorry, you have to ask next year's #1 and then some to your trading partner.

[PlayAction]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

We have 90 million in cap space and 2 picks in rounds 2 and three. There is zero shot the OL you saw last year will be starting week one next year. 

 

We need starters and depth on the OL.  If you allocate 50% of the round 2-3 to the OL then we are limited for DE, LB, DB.  We are going to need free agent(s) for the OL or the rookie QB is likely to suffer a Howell experience.  IMO the priority should be protecting the new QB even if we give up 30pts per game in year 1.

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

bad RG3 trade. 

In fairness RG3 won us the division as a rookie and was Rookie of the year over Andrew Luck. He had the record for Rookie passer rating until Stroud crushed it this year. If RG3 doesnt blow his knee out who knows where he ends up. And I would still make that trade 10 times out of 10. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-rookie-of-the-year-rg3-andrew-luck-or-russell-wilson-0ap1000000132673

 

• RG3 was the most impressive first-year offensive talent

Yes, Andrew Luck took a team that was 2-14 in 2011 to the playoffs in 2012, but looking at the bigger picture, Robert Griffin III was the more impressive player. Griffin finished the regular season with a passer rating of 102.4, a rookie record;

[PlayAction]

5 minutes ago, alaroche04 said:

Trading down would be a very very bad move.

 

The only bad moves are the ones that don't result in good players.  Selected a bust with the 2nd overall pick would be a bad move.  Outcomes are uncertain so more picks are better.  On the other hand, a franchise QB is a huge difference-maker.  That's why the GM is paid the big bucks.    

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In fairness RG3 won us the division as a rookie and was Rookie of the year over Andrew Luck. He had the record for Rookie passer rating until Stroud crushed it this year. If RG3 doesnt blow his knee out who knows where he ends up. And I would still make that trade 10 times out of 10. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-rookie-of-the-year-rg3-andrew-luck-or-russell-wilson-0ap1000000132673

 

• RG3 was the most impressive first-year offensive talent

Yes, Andrew Luck took a team that was 2-14 in 2011 to the playoffs in 2012, but looking at the bigger picture, Robert Griffin III was the more impressive player. Griffin finished the regular season with a passer rating of 102.4, a rookie record;

 

I would never make that trade.  Not then and not now.  Picking RG3 at our original spot is a different question.  

[Redskins 2021]

Maybe a trade down with AZ or NE if they want Harrison? 

Edited February 7 by Redskins 2021

[skinsfan66]

20 minutes ago, alaroche04 said:

Trading down would be a very very bad move.

Trading up to 1 would be the worst move and missing. 

[Conn]

2 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Maybe a trade down with AZ or NE if they want Harrison? 

Why would they trade up for a WR when he’s gonna fall to them anyways. QB’s are very likely gonna go 1-2-3. Or if they want a WR, then 3 is the earliest spot after QB’s go 1-2. 
 

Nabers is also great. Nobody’s paying QB prices to move into the top-3 for one of two great WR’s 

[veteranskinsfan]

We all know that Gibbs won 3 Super Bowls with 3 different quarterbacks.  How did he do that?  By having a very strong offensive line, a strong defensive line and 2 good coordinators- Gibbs on offense and Pettibone on defense.   Has the NFL changed so much that you have to find the franchise quarterback first and then build up your offensive and defensive lines??  Seems backwards to me. Snyder chased quarterbacks and look where that got him.  Our lines need to be built up.  Howell had no chance last year to look good.  We also need another elite receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr.  But what about getting a strong left tackle?  We have so many needs.

 

Hope Peters and Quinn can figure it all out and not put all their money in one basket that would be either complete hit or complete miss.

Edited February 7 by veteranskinsfan
fixed line spacing

[skinsfan66]

25 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Who is giving us two #1s next year?

A team picking 7 or later possible and even a little more this year? That would be my guess.

[Redskins 2021]

11 minutes ago, Conn said:

Why would they trade up for a WR when he’s gonna fall to them anyways. QB’s are very likely gonna go 1-2-3. Or if they want a WR, then 3 is the earliest spot after QB’s go 1-2. 
 

Nabers is also great. Nobody’s paying QB prices to move into the top-3 for one of two great WR’s 

 There a good shot if NE does not like who is left at Qb they go Wr. I think QB goes one and two.

 

Harrison has a very high grade and has a very good chance of going top 3. You want get a huge offer but you could pick up a couple of picks.

Edited February 7 by Redskins 2021

[Warhead36]

11 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

We all know that Gibbs won 3 Super Bowls with 3 different quarterbacks.  How did he do that?  By having a very strong offensive line, a strong defensive line and 2 good coordinators- Gibbs on offense and Pettibone on defense.   Has the NFL changed so much that you have to find the franchise quarterback first and then build up your offensive and defensive lines??  Seems backwards to me. Snyder chased quarterbacks and look where that got him.  Our lines need to be built up.  Howell had no chance last year to look good.  We also need another elite receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr.  But what about getting a strong left tackle?  We have so many needs.

 

Hope Peters and Quinn can figure it all out and not put all their money in one basket that would be either complete hit or complete miss.

This isn't the 80s or even 90s anymore.

 

Also, while we mention the three different QBs, all three QBs were fantastic and collectively were essentially the equivalent of a HOF QB.

 

Gibbs didn't carry tomato can QBs to the Super Bowl. Yes we had great teams around them, but having a great QB was essential.

2 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 There a good shot if NE does not like who is left at Qb they go Wr. I think QB goes one and two.

 

Harrison has a very high grade and has a very good chance of going top 3. 

NE has basically already said publicly they're going QB at 3. You just don't pass up blue chip QB talent when you have guys like Sam Howell and Bailey Zappe as your best options.

[SoCalSkins]

38 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

If they traded down Peters better be VERY confident that neither Maye or Daniels are franchise QBs.  Because if this team stays in the QB wildnerness when they passed over another franchise QB -- it will be adios as far as am concerned for Peters.   The goal for me isn't to find our way back to 9-8 but to be a real NFL force that are constantly in the playoffs like most teams who have franchise QBs. 

 

Like I've said before I don't care that there isn't 100% consensus from fans about these QBs or even from mock draft types.  When does that ever happen?  Some act like this is the first time there isn't 100% consensus so its a red flag but its like that just about every year about every college QB.

 

Having Klingsbury in the mix aides to my confidence that they make a smart move as to the QB spot.  I've digested enough about him to get the vibe that his superpower is finding QBs and developing them. 

Taking a shot on QB and missing is fine it happens. Not taking your shot and watching the dude you passed become elite is had to swallow. No way Peters moves down. 

[Redskins 2021]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

This isn't the 80s or even 90s anymore.

 

Also, while we mention the three different QBs, all three QBs were fantastic and collectively were essentially the equivalent of a HOF QB.

 

Gibbs didn't carry tomato can QBs to the Super Bowl. Yes we had great teams around them, but having a great QB was essential.

NE has basically already said publicly they're going QB at 3. You just don't pass up blue chip QB talent when you have guys like Sam Howell and Bailey Zappe as your best options.

  I am not sold on NE taking a Qb. I could see them going FA route for Qb and taking Harrison. 

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Taking a shot on QB and missing is fine it happens. Not taking your shot and watching the dude you passed become elite is had to swallow. No way Peters moves down. 

Yep exactly. I wasn't mad at the RG3 trade. Guy gave us the most entertaining season we've had for basically an entire generation. Injuries suck but what can you do? At least we took a shot.

 

If Maye or Daniels busts, so be it. It won't cost Peters his job if the rest of the team is built up decently. They aren't clamoring for the Jets GM to be fired because he's done a good job with the rest of that roster, just unfortunate he took a bust QB(in a QB draft class that is appearing more and more to be pretty much garbagio outside of Lawrence and even he has not lived up to expectations all the way).

[Thinking Skins]

Ok. Here's the thing. I finished my QB model that I've been working on for about a month. It compares QBs based on their college careers. Instead of looking at their overall careers I decided to look at years independently. So 2023 Caleb Williams and 2022 Caleb Williams would be seen by the model as different QBs even though you and I know that they are the same person. 

 

The goal of the model was to see if I could answer questions like does a certain QB play like another QB. "Does Drake Maye play like Justin Herbert or Josh Allen or Daniel Jones?" To do this I acquired a number of statistics from their college careers. Some of these are things that we all know like the passing yards, passing tds, and interceptions. Then I calculated things like sacks fumbles passes within a certain range (from 10 yards to 90 yards) and the same for runs. Games with multiple interceptions, and tds. 

 

So with that introduction, here are some results. 

Here is one interesting cluster of QBs 

2023 Caleb Williams, 2023 Drake Maye, 2023 Jayden Daniels, 2023 Bo Nix, 2022 Bryce Young, 2021 Will Levis, 2021 Desmond Ridder, 2021 Matt Corral, 2021 Sam Howell, 2021 Brock Purdy, 2018 Trevor Lawrence, 2018 Kellen Mond, 2018 Joe Burrow, 2018 Justin Herbert, 2016 Daniel Jones, 2016 Josh Allen, 2016 DeShone Kizer, 2015 DeShone Kizer, 2014 Paxton Lynch

 

I'm not saying that these are all similar QBs, just that its an interesting result. 

 

This is some preliminary stuff, but and in the next version I may add things like ypa, aypa, completion percentage, and possibly an intended target percentage as that was what soured me on Mac Jones. 

 

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

  I am not sold on NE taking a Qb. I could see them going FA route for Qb and taking Harrison. 

Ok but their coach has basically already said publicly they're going QB. I mean, how the heck do you not go for a blue chipper in either Maye or Daniels when your best option is Bailey Zappe? That would just be madness.

[BurgundyBooger]

2 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

We all know that Gibbs won 3 Super Bowls with 3 different quarterbacks.  How did he do that?  By having a very strong offensive line, a strong defensive line and 2 good coordinators- Gibbs on offense and Pettibone on defense.   Has the NFL changed so much that you have to find the franchise quarterback first and then build up your offensive and defensive lines??  Seems backwards to me. Snyder chased quarterbacks and look where that got him.  Our lines need to be built up.  Howell had no chance last year to look good.  We also need another elite receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr.  But what about getting a strong left tackle?  We have so many needs.

 

Hope Peters and Quinn can figure it all out and not put all their money in one basket that would be either complete hit or complete miss.

 

That is a good argument, and one I've used before. The flip side of that a great QB can elevate/hide a lot of a team's weaknesses through impact and leadership, and attract the attention of free agents who can plug in those holes. Belichick consistently remarked on the talent disparity between his 2001 team and the Rams in the Super Bowl: "Can you believe we won the Super Bowl with this?" A great QB and strong coaching covers a lot of deficits that I do think eventually gets exposed, and all the more important to have those priorities in place in order to attract the help to strengthen the team.

[kingdaddy]

 

4 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 There a good shot if NE does not like who is left at Qb they go Wr. I think QB goes one and two.

 

Harrison has a very high grade and has a very good chance of going top 3. You want get a huge offer but you could pick up a couple of picks.

Hypothetically, who's to say the Bears don't trade up to #3 overall for the #9 overall pick AND Justin Fields plus a 2nd round pick next year. The Bears get CW and MHJ....NE rolls with Fields and goes with Nabors or Bowers at #9 and they then have their combo. Point is, the Bears are in such a great position that, depending on the interest level for Fields, they could do any number of things to get both CW and MHJ including dealing with Washington if need be to pick up more picks. 

[redskinss]

21 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

Snyder chased quarterbacks and look where that got him.  Our lines need to be built up. 

In Snyders tenure we drafted two all time left tackles in the top 5 an all pro guard in the top 5 a linebacker in the top 5 a defensive end in the top 5 during a run of 4 straight years using our first round pick on the defensive line.

In that same time frame we drafted a quarterback in the top 5 once.

I would hardly say Snyder ignored the lines to chase quarterbacks. 

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, redskinss said:

In Snyders tenure we drafted two all time left tackles in the top 5 an all pro guard in the top 5 a linebacker in the top 5 a defensive end in the top 5 during a run of 4 straight years using our first round pick on the defensive line.

In that same time frame we drafted a quarterback in the top 5 once.

I would hardly say Snyder ignored the lines to chase quarterbacks. 

Yeah exactly. We had essentially two decades of Pro Bowl/All Pro caliber LT play from Chris Samuels through Trent Williams and what did it win us? That's not factoring in guys like Jon Jansen, Randy Thomas, Brandon Scherff, Morgan Moses etc. I'd argue from 2000 to 2020 collectively across the league we probably had a top 5-10 OL all around.

 

Without a franchise QB it doesn't mean jack.