The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[DWinzit]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to Keim-Sheehan podcast.

 

Sheehan said he heard that this regime would hire the GM first and have the GM hire the coach.   Keim suspects but doesn't know that Harris has someone advising him now.   Keim for the 10th time in the last month or so went on and on about the O line needing to better.  And he suggested that this regime now realizes that.   Keim is pretty high on Howell.  they talked about the defense.  Keim said thus far Forbes hasn't brought them what they wanted. 

 

On a different podcast, Keim mentioned CB as an off season need.  And the secondary struggles have come he thinks in part because they are playing more man and struggiling with it.

 

He mentioned that while Larsen hasn't been great he's done better in calling pass protection which is something Gates struggled with.

Figuring this staff won't be intact for the off season, it is hard to identify what positions will be needed. If we kept JDR, we would definitely still need a quality CB, LB and Edge.

 

Regardless of who takes over OL and TE need to be hammered on offensively and same goes LB on the defensive side.

[The Consigliere]

14 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I like Howell but these cherry picked stats are always amusing to me. I remember in the NBA one time there was this super cherry picked list of stats that basically put Kwame Brown in the same category as guys like Wilt and Kareem. 

 

If people took a look at middle of the road starter completion rates in the 1970s or 1960s they'd never finish throwing up. Every once in a while I wonder about why the league just has so much more accurate passers today. A little of it is training I imagine, some of it is that systems have so much short passing that it will automatically boost completion rates, and the league of the sixties, seventies and eighties was infinitely physically rougher on pass catchers, and QB's in general, it was a significantly more violent league, all be it with less athletic and physically destructive players, on average, but it is wild that your average QB in the 60's and 70's was completing passes typically in the high 40's to mid 50's percentage wise and today, you wont get a lick of snaps if you can't sit in the 60's. I still remember Jay Schroeder and Mark Malone struggling to top 50%. Just a different world. 

[Warhead36]

5 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

If people took a look at middle of the road starter completion rates in the 1970s or 1960s they'd never finish throwing up. Every once in a while I wonder about why the league just has so much more accurate passers today. A little of it is training I imagine, some of it is that systems have so much short passing that it will automatically boost completion rates, and the league of the sixties, seventies and eighties was infinitely physically rougher on pass catchers, and QB's in general, it was a significantly more violent league, all be it with less athletic and physically destructive players, on average, but it is wild that your average QB in the 60's and 70's was completing passes typically in the high 40's to mid 50's percentage wise and today, you wont get a lick of snaps if you can't sit in the 60's. I still remember Jay Schroeder and Mark Malone struggling to top 50%. Just a different world. 

Yeah I remember the 90s and early 00s when the top rated passers were like in the 90s at best and a QB rating of 80 or better was pretty good.

 

Now the best QBs are well over 100 and 90 is like, average.

 

I still love football but the over emphasis on offense has kinda butchered a lot of the beauty of it.

[woodpecker]

16 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

If people took a look at middle of the road starter completion rates in the 1970s or 1960s they'd never finish throwing up. Every once in a while I wonder about why the league just has so much more accurate passers today. A little of it is training I imagine, some of it is that systems have so much short passing that it will automatically boost completion rates, and the league of the sixties, seventies and eighties was infinitely physically rougher on pass catchers, and QB's in general, it was a significantly more violent league, all be it with less athletic and physically destructive players, on average, but it is wild that your average QB in the 60's and 70's was completing passes typically in the high 40's to mid 50's percentage wise and today, you wont get a lick of snaps if you can't sit in the 60's. I still remember Jay Schroeder and Mark Malone struggling to top 50%. Just a different world. 

Also you have more domes today, and much better playing surfaces overall. But the biggest thing is probably the rule changes that don’t allow defenders to play nearly as physically. 

[HigSkin]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to Keim-Sheehan podcast.

 

Sheehan said he heard that this regime would hire the GM first and have the GM hire the coach.   Keim suspects but doesn't know that Harris has someone advising him now.   Keim for the 10th time in the last month or so went on and on about the O line needing to better.  And he suggested that this regime now realizes that.   Keim is pretty high on Howell.  they talked about the defense.  Keim said thus far Forbes hasn't brought them what they wanted. 

 

On a different podcast, Keim mentioned CB as an off season need.  And the secondary struggles have come he thinks in part because they are playing more man and struggiling with it.

 

He mentioned that while Larsen hasn't been great he's done better in calling pass protection which is something Gates struggled with.

 

Thought it was interesting that Keim brought up the Saints reference to the way they built their Oline for Brees (shorter QB) in that they build it being stronger inside with guards.

[Skinsinparadise]

41 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

Thought it was interesting that Keim brought up the Saints reference to the way they built their Oline for Brees (shorter QB) in that they build it being stronger inside with guards.

 

Yep, he hit the interior in particular.  He's done so mutliple times.  If people think some on this board are too whiny about the O line -- they shouldn't listen to Keim because they'd find him as persistent on the topic as to they should have done more for this season or should do so for next season, he's been relentless for many weeks about the subject.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

If people took a look at middle of the road starter completion rates in the 1970s or 1960s they'd never finish throwing up. Every once in a while I wonder about why the league just has so much more accurate passers today. A little of it is training I imagine, some of it is that systems have so much short passing that it will automatically boost completion rates, and the league of the sixties, seventies and eighties was infinitely physically rougher on pass catchers, and QB's in general, it was a significantly more violent league, all be it with less athletic and physically destructive players, on average, but it is wild that your average QB in the 60's and 70's was completing passes typically in the high 40's to mid 50's percentage wise and today, you wont get a lick of snaps if you can't sit in the 60's. I still remember Jay Schroeder and Mark Malone struggling to top 50%. Just a different world. 

Would also say a large part of it (and this ties into rules changes and all the $$ in football now at every level) is that QB’s are being trained from middle school now to be D1 and then NFL ready. Passing camps, travel teams, all-star games, recruiting minors to future scholarships…NIL will inflate this even more. But passers are being trained to pass with appropriate mechanics from a younger age, and it’s taken much more seriously. Optimal mechanics are known and standard unless a kid is really special and has his own natural mechanics that work. The best athletes on most youth and high school teams will be made the QB, and that’s where the biggest money is. So kids that maybe would have played RB or LB in the 70’s are playing QB today because of the focus on the position. Developing future NFL passers is just an entire ecosystem now. There’s millions, hell billions at stake. Whereas QB’s in the 70’s had entire other jobs sometimes lol. Offenses ran through the running game, defense reigned, scoring was generally lower. There’s just such an emphasis on taking freak athletes and turning them into stud QBs now, everything else about modern football grows outwards from that. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Conn

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

Yep, aggressiveness is always good. Yeah you might turn it over more, but you also open up the field a lot more and increase your margin of error.

 

Nothing is more tiresome to watch than an offense that can only throw 3 yard dinkers and has to rely on 12+ play drives. That style of play is unsustainable and one bad play, heck even one incomplete pass, just completely derails your drive.

[Dan T.]

9 minutes ago, Conn said:

Would also say a large part of it (and this ties into rules changes and all the $$ in football now at every level) is that QB’s are being trained from middle school now to be D1 and then NFL ready. Passing camps, travel teams, all-star games, recruiting minors to future scholarships…NIL will inflate this even more. But passers are being trained to pass with appropriate mechanics from a younger age, and it’s taken much more seriously. Optimal mechanics are known and standard unless a kid is really special and has his own natural mechanics that work. The best athletes on most youth and high school teams will be made the QB, and that’s where the biggest money is. So kids that maybe would have played RB or LB in the 70’s are playing QB today because of the focus on the position. Developing future NFL passers is just an entire ecosystem now. There’s millions, hell billions at stake. Whereas QB’s in the 70’s had entire other jobs sometimes lol. Offenses ran through the running game, defense reigned, scoring was generally lower. There’s just such an emphasis on taking freak athletes and turning them into stud QBs now, everything else about modern football grows outwards from that. 

 

Also it used to be that a d-back could basically mug a receiver anywhere on the field until the ball was in the air.  To open up the offense, the NFL instituted the 5-yard illegal contact rule that said hands-off 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.  

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, HigSkin said:

 

Thought it was interesting that Keim brought up the Saints reference to the way they built their Oline for Brees (shorter QB) in that they build it being stronger inside with guards.

 

Makes sense. Strong interior is beneficial for a lot of styles of QB play. For Brees it was having consistent throwing lanes open. Others like Lamar Jackson, teams want the QB to be able to step up as a matter of habit and then escape through the pocket vertically which is easier to do with IOL firmly winning their blocks.

 

One option to improve the interior would be trading back in the 1st round and grabbing the LT from Washington, Fautanu (I think?), and moving him to LG. Maybe he could work at RT? But he just looks like he could handle LG really well.

[The Consigliere]

A little bit bummed to hear Ian Hartitz and Matt Kelley settle on "Good" Baker Mayfield, and later on Jeff Garcia as comps for Howell. The problem they have, at least on Kelley's side, is that there aren't many similar passers, period, and they find the Drew Brees comp a bit too hopeful. The website comp is Darnold but that doesn't really make sense either. Hartitz made a point early in the discussion to mention that his big time throws #'s, and the actual throws themselves look like elite passer material. Second time one of the shows has discussed him the past few days, bear in mind it's a fantasy context primarily. Kelley seems to believe that a lot of the crazy production is basically due to the horrifically inept defense forcing them to throw so much, and that the raw stacked #'s would likely slip back to something more mundane if the defense was even league average.

 

For now anyway, they seem skeptical of a top 10 upside with them, although Hartitz seemed a bit more open to the idea than Kelley. 

 

I remain of the belief that he has Top 8 upside, but probably not top 5. I'm also pretty close to convinced that his floor is basically the mediocre to below average version of Dalton in terms of production. I don't think "bust" is in his range of outcomes anymore. He's got a legit floor of 25th-30th in the league, not bottom of the barrel horror show level like say Devito, or Zach Wilson. 

 

So for me, resetting on him:

 

Expectation, if we stick with him: 11th-20th rated QB in league

Ceiling: 8th-12th QB in the league.

Floor: 21st-35th QB in the league. 

 

 

 

[Warhead36]

Nothing wrong with Baker Mayfield comp. Baker when healthy is a pretty good QB. Dude won a playoff game for the freaking Browns. And I think Howell has better intangibles and mental make up.

[KDawg]

29 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

A little bit bummed to hear Ian Hartitz and Matt Kelley settle on "Good" Baker Mayfield, and later on Jeff Garcia as comps for Howell. The problem they have, at least on Kelley's side, is that there aren't many similar passers, period, and they find the Drew Brees comp a bit too hopeful. The website comp is Darnold but that doesn't really make sense either. Hartitz made a point early in the discussion to mention that his big time throws #'s, and the actual throws themselves look like elite passer material. Second time one of the shows has discussed him the past few days, bear in mind it's a fantasy context primarily. Kelley seems to believe that a lot of the crazy production is basically due to the horrifically inept defense forcing them to throw so much, and that the raw stacked #'s would likely slip back to something more mundane if the defense was even league average.

 

For now anyway, they seem skeptical of a top 10 upside with them, although Hartitz seemed a bit more open to the idea than Kelley. 

 

I remain of the belief that he has Top 8 upside, but probably not top 5. I'm also pretty close to convinced that his floor is basically the mediocre to below average version of Dalton in terms of production. I don't think "bust" is in his range of outcomes anymore. He's got a legit floor of 25th-30th in the league, not bottom of the barrel horror show level like say Devito, or Zach Wilson. 

 

So for me, resetting on him:

 

Expectation, if we stick with him: 11th-20th rated QB in league

Ceiling: 8th-12th QB in the league.

Floor: 21st-35th QB in the league. 

 

 

 

I don’t know who either of those people are.

[The Consigliere]

28 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Nothing wrong with Baker Mayfield comp. Baker when healthy is a pretty good QB. Dude won a playoff game for the freaking Browns. And I think Howell has better intangibles and mental make up.

 

I think what's scary is how he's looked otherwise. Depending upon which season you point to, Baker either looks like Andy Dalton+ or a bust, with little inbetween. You just never know which of the two you're getting although at this point I'm wondering if "health" and not being on the panthers is the key component. That or he's the reverse Brett Saberhagen (good in even years) but the way the last year two years have gone, even that reversed. 

 

Regardless, a "good Baker" Mayfield would be a QB you could live with, and I actually think he's better than that. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by The Consigliere

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, Dan T. said:

 

Also it used to be that a d-back could basically mug a receiver anywhere on the field until the ball was in the air.  To open up the offense, the NFL instituted the 5-yard illegal contact rule that said hands-off 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.  

 

No kidding.

 

DPI in the NFL of the 70s and 80s:

 

 

 

 

 

DPI in today's NFL:

 

[clskinsfan]

On 11/14/2023 at 9:11 PM, zCommander said:

Okay

Bro. I am not gonna quote your story. But if you are gonna take Sam over Allen right now you are a HOMER. A monster homer. They are not close right now. And to claim otherwise is laughable. 

13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I feel mixed about Bieniemy

I really dont. He needs to go with the rest of the organization. It is time for a FULL rebuild. That means all of the coaches must go. 

[zCommander]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Bro. I am not gonna quote your story. But if you are gonna take Sam over Allen right now you are a HOMER. A monster homer. They are not close right now. And to claim otherwise is laughable. 

 

Not a homer. I call it as I see it. The way Sam makes some plays is something that I haven't seen Allen do it at all. Also it took Allen 3 years to become good and now looks like on the decline (maybe) and even got his OC fired. What Sam is doing in his first year as a starter is way beyond what Allen did as a starter. 

 

There was an analyst on McAfee show who said if a QB gets more reps in college than they are usually better prospect even if selected in the 4th round or later. He said same for Purdy. So this made me look up the stats for Allen (which I never bothered to do before - and now it makes even more sense). Sam had twice as many yards in college than Allen and he did that in only 3 years too. Also looks at their TD to INT ratio as well or even the comp. %. 

 

College stats:

 

Allen:

 

Season	Team	Games		Passing									Rushing
		GP	GS	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Int	Rtg	Att	Yds	Avg	TD
2014	Reedley[18]	10	6	127	259	49.0	2,055	7.9	66	26	5	144.9	120	660	5.5	10
2015	Wyoming	2	1	4	6	66.7	51	8.5	19	0	0	138.1	3	40	13.3	0
2016	Wyoming	14	14	209	373	56.0	3,203	8.6	54	28	15	144.9	142	523	3.7	7
2017	Wyoming	11	11	152	270	56.3	1,812	6.7	47	16	6	127.8	92	204	2.2	5
Wyoming totals		27	26	365	649	56.2	5,066	7.8	54	44	21	137.7	237	767	3.2	12

 

Sam:

Season	Games		Passing								Rushing				Receiving
	GP	GS	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Rtg	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
2019	13	13	259	422	61.4	3,641	8.6	38	7	160.2	94	35	0.4	1	3	23	7.7	1
2020	12	12	237	348	68.1	3,586	10.3	30	7	179.1	92	146	1.6	5	1	1	1.0	1
2021	12	12	217	347	62.5	3,056	8.8	24	9	154.2	183	828	4.5	11	0	0	0.0	0
Career	37	37	713	1,117	63.8	10,283	9.2	92	23	164.2	369	1,009	2.8	17	4	24	6.0	2

 

The only reason Josh Allen got drafted #7 is because of the week QB class that year. Slim pickings. Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold and Jackson. Those were the choices in the 1st round. Just because Allen was selected in the 1st round doesn't mean he is the greatest thing next to slice of bread. He is not.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, zCommander said:

There was an analyst on McAfee show

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

6 hours ago, KDawg said:

I don’t know who either of those people are.

They’re fantasy guys. At least I know Hartitz is. They aren’t really analyzing him as a QB as much as he is a fantasy option. Apples to oranges to what we care about BUT Sam has been pretty good fantasy wise this year. 

[zCommander]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The guy who stole dinosaur eggs

 

No. Not him. But this guy

 

[RansomthePasserby]

7 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

They’re fantasy guys. At least I know Hartitz is. They aren’t really analyzing him as a QB as much as he is a fantasy option. Apples to oranges to what we care about BUT Sam has been pretty good fantasy wise this year. 

Yup I usually stay away from our QBs for obvious reasons, but I picked Sam up to replace Justin Fields. Not regretting it so far. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by RansomthePasserby

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

9 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Not a homer. I call it as I see it. The way Sam makes some plays is something that I haven't seen Allen do it at all. Also it took Allen 3 years to become good and now looks like on the decline (maybe) and even got his OC fired. What Sam is doing in his first year as a starter is way beyond what Allen did as a starter. 

 

There was an analyst on McAfee show who said if a QB gets more reps in college than they are usually better prospect even if selected in the 4th round or later. He said same for Purdy. So this made me look up the stats for Allen (which I never bothered to do before - and now it makes even more sense). Sam had twice as many yards in college than Allen and he did that in only 3 years too. Also looks at their TD to INT ratio as well or even the comp. %. 

 

College stats:

 

Allen:

 

Season	Team	Games		Passing									Rushing
		GP	GS	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Int	Rtg	Att	Yds	Avg	TD
2014	Reedley[18]	10	6	127	259	49.0	2,055	7.9	66	26	5	144.9	120	660	5.5	10
2015	Wyoming	2	1	4	6	66.7	51	8.5	19	0	0	138.1	3	40	13.3	0
2016	Wyoming	14	14	209	373	56.0	3,203	8.6	54	28	15	144.9	142	523	3.7	7
2017	Wyoming	11	11	152	270	56.3	1,812	6.7	47	16	6	127.8	92	204	2.2	5
Wyoming totals		27	26	365	649	56.2	5,066	7.8	54	44	21	137.7	237	767	3.2	12

 

Sam:

Season	Games		Passing								Rushing				Receiving
	GP	GS	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Rtg	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
2019	13	13	259	422	61.4	3,641	8.6	38	7	160.2	94	35	0.4	1	3	23	7.7	1
2020	12	12	237	348	68.1	3,586	10.3	30	7	179.1	92	146	1.6	5	1	1	1.0	1
2021	12	12	217	347	62.5	3,056	8.8	24	9	154.2	183	828	4.5	11	0	0	0.0	0
Career	37	37	713	1,117	63.8	10,283	9.2	92	23	164.2	369	1,009	2.8	17	4	24	6.0	2

 

The only reason Josh Allen got drafted #7 is because of the week QB class that year. Slim pickings. Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold and Jackson. Those were the choices in the 1st round. Just because Allen was selected in the 1st round doesn't mean he is the greatest thing next to slice of bread. He is not.

You say you’ve seen Sam make plays you’ve never seen Allen make….like we didn’t just see Allen look like an MVP against Sam like 2 months ago. 
 

Sam is doing great. Out of all the QBs drafted since 2021, he’s the 3rd best by a decent margin. Why can’t we just be satisfied with that? Lol 

[zCommander]

6 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

You say you’ve seen Sam make plays you’ve never seen Allen make….like we didn’t just see Allen look like an MVP against Sam like 2 months ago. 
 

Sam is doing great. Out of all the QBs drafted since 2021, he’s the 3rd best by a decent margin. Why can’t we just be satisfied with that? Lol 

 

And Allen looked like a non-MVP against the Jets. Who is the Jets QB again lol

 

I know Sam is doing great. I knew he would be good but he is gone above even my own expectations. But when someone said he is no Allen that I can't hang with though. I think people also forget that Allen has been on a playoff team and Sam isn't. 

[Conn]

24 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Not a homer. I call it as I see it. The way Sam makes some plays is something that I haven't seen Allen do it at all.

Wake up. You can prefer whoever you like, you’re a fan. But sentences like this just cut down your credibility.