The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[757SeanTaylor21]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Howell is better than Purdy. Purdy benefits from insane talent around him. His game has gone to doo doo once some of those guys started getting hurt.

I mean listen I am loving howell and think he can be our guy if he keeps this up. But purdy throws with way more anticipation and accuracy. Surrender he does have some benefits of the talent but Sam against the bears, bill,, giants says that he isn't better. Not now atleast.

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I wish we had just bit the bullet and started him last year. I mean after half a season he's already clearly better than anything we've had since Cousins. Imagine how much better he'd be right now if he had been the starter from last year.

 

More likely he bails out the suspect F.O. and Coaching staff from their inadequacies if that happened. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

True, but he also had a legitimately bad game against the Giants. He almost made up for it with the near comeback, but he was still really really bad in that game.

 

Since then he has been much better, as has EB's playcalling. The two go hand in hand for sure.

 

But that's gonna happen, right? Especially on a team with a sketchy OL, bad coaching, and a total --- defense. Remember where the "Playoffs, PLAYOFFS!!" Jim Mora meme comes from right? It's freaking Peyton, after one of his classic Peyton ---- show games (he had them, especially in the playoffs, oddly enough). 

 

Part of this season is the ---- show games here and there. Sometimes it may mean something, like Jay Schreoder's horror show performance against the Giants in '86 (6 picks), sometimes it's just part of growing as a QB, and learning some lessons. Whats impressive and odd about it to me, is the he followed some awful performances against bad defenses and ---- teams, with great performances against good defenses, and in 1 case a great team. Seems to consistently show up against the stronger sides. Also worth noting, a rookie struggling in a Thursday Nighter probably shouldn't surprise. Little prep time. I wouldn't be surprised if he lays a stinker on thanksgiving. W/only a couple days of prep time, for a rook, against that defense? A huge freaking ask. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I wish we had just bit the bullet and started him last year. I mean after half a season he's already clearly better than anything we've had since Cousins. Imagine how much better he'd be right now if he had been the starter from last year.

I think sitting him a year really helped him.  His footwork was a complete mess last year, you could see it in the preseason.  If he got thrown to the wolves with bad fundamentals, he might have struggled right out of the gate, and it might have wrecked his career.  

 

He got an entire year to work on footwork and fundamentals, and regardless of the type of offense you run, those things translate.  Zampese is known as a very good QB coach for young QBs, and I think you can see the benefit of him having the time to adjust and learn.

 

Now, I will hear you, at some point, I might have had SERIOUS thoughts about going to him instead of Hallock, because Hallock's magic had run out and he stinks without magic.  But that's tough because you also don't want to throw a rookie 5th round pick into the middle of a playoff race as his first starts of his career. 

 

Howell slipped in the draft a few rounds further than he should have.  But I think he was in the 3-5 round range because he wasn't ready to start, and then when he played in preseason, he didn't look ready.  So that evaluation seemed to be pretty accurate.  When he got his footwork down, he looked a lot better.

 

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Even with his flaws he is sooooo far down the list of problems with this team it isn't even worth discussing at this point outside of the normal QB dynamic.

He's not on the list of problems he's on the list of solutions, and he might be #1 on the list of solutions.

 

44 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

We’re only 18th in PPG. That needs to tick up. In the last 4 games, we’ve scored 24, 7, 31, and 20. If you could get better consistency and more TDs, we’d really be cooking and the Sam narrative would get really crazy . 

Yeah, what's interesting is we're 18th but we've had an almost shutout and a 7 point debacle.  Over 8 games, 1/4 of them were disasters.  

 

The other 6 games were much, much, much better. 

 

I think we're basically a 24 ppg average team.  If a couple bad things happen, we're between 20-13 (like yesterday's interception in the end zone.  If that doesn't happen, they at least get a FG out of it.  And we're probably 24+.  But it did, so we're stuck on 20.)

 

If a few good things go for us we're 25-30.

 

24 PPG even would be right around the 11th scoring team in the league.  That's about right.  

 

My guess is since we have 2 games with a combined 10 points on the record, we end up somewhere around 22 PPG at the end of the season.  Right now that would be between KC and Minnesota for 13th.

 

Btw, KC is 12th in points scored.  And they still don't lose.  

 

36 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

The fact Dotson isn't on that list is somewhat odd....

 

35 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Emmanuel Forbes with a 91. Man how bad are the Pats WRs lolol

And how much of a joke PFF grades are.  

 

27 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Hes got a few fans LOL 

 

2 things about this play:

 

1. It reminds me SO much of the first Moss Monday Night Miracle catch. 

2. Terry ran the wrong route, and thought the ball was coming to him.  I'm absolutely convinced of this watching the review a few times.  I bet he was supposed to break the route or run a go, or something to pull the either up or towards the sideline.  He trying to catch up to the ball and catch it.  Something just wasn't right on that play and I think Terry messed it up.  

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

The fact Dotson isn't on that list is somewhat odd....

 

 

I gather the two drops were held against him.

[Skinsinparadise]

The offensive adjustment that helped the Commanders beat the Patriots

 

 

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Late in the third quarter, when the Washington Commanders seemed ready to fall short again, quarterback Sam Howell changed the game with his mind. He saw the New England Patriots in an aggressive, man-to-man coverage look with zero safeties deep, which is known as cover zero. The defense was about to blitz.

 

In college, receiver Terry McLaurin said, his coach called cover-zero “disrespectful.” Effectively, the defensive coordinator was saying: We’re better, more talented, and more athletic than you are, your receivers can’t beat our corners one-on-one, and your quarterback can’t get them the ball before our pass rush gets him. McLaurin scoffed at the idea of a corner, flat-footed 10 yards off the ball before the snap, covering him without safety help over the top.

“With the receivers that we have, to be quite frank, nobody should be able to zero blitz us,” McLaurin said.

 

Earlier in Sunday’s game, Howell had countered zero by calling audibles to quick passes. This time, he barked out another “check,” and Patriots defenders crept closer to the line, readying to blow up another quick hitter. But then Howell dropped back, patted the ball and lofted a perfect throw into the outstretched arms of receiver Jahan Dotson, who’d won one-on-one downfield. The touchdown tied the game and keyed the Commanders’ 20-17 victory.

 

Though there are many reasons Washington beat New England, offensive players stressed beating cover-zero was a significant one. Coming into Sunday, the Commanders had struggled against zero, only succeeding five times in 20 plays. Several players said the embarrassing loss to the New York Giants had been on their minds all week as they emphasized beating zero at practice; Patriots Coach Bill Belichick, like Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, loves to blitz and play man-to-man coverage.

 

“We knew Bill was going to try to bring [cover-zero] a lot,” Howell said. “We just tried to use it to our advantage.”

“Sam did an incredible job with his zero checks,” right tackle Andrew Wylie said. “He hit, like, three or four of those things, and they were all successful.”

“Overpreparing for [cover-zero] obviously paid off for us,” right guard Sam Cosmi said.

	PLAYS AGAINST COVER-ZERO	EPA/PLAY (RANK)
Weeks 1-8	20	-0.32 (28th)
Week 9	6	0.57 (3rd)*

In the first six weeks, defenses mostly used zero against Washington in the red zone or in obvious passing situations. The tactic seemed designed to take advantage of Howell’s weakness of sometimes holding the ball too long. He usually got the ball out against zero, taking one sack in nine dropbacks, but the extra pressure worked; his throws were regularly tipped or at least slightly off-target. He only completed two of eight attempts.

 

In New York, Martindale’s blitzes amplified underlying problems. The offense struggled to communicate, block and execute. Howell had his best zero rep of the season — hitting McLaurin on a slant to convert on fourth and one — but it did nothing to mask the team’s frustration. McLaurin vented (in diplomatic McLaurin-ese) about the offense’s inability to counter pressure by throwing downfield.

 

“We were prepared for the Giants, but I think, after quite frankly getting embarrassed in a lot of situations, it forced us to focus on the little details,” McLaurin said Sunday. He noted there were too many plays when Howell, the receivers and offensive line were “on different pages,” adding, “The communication, it was emphasized all week.”

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/06/commanders-offense-patriots-blitz/

Edited November 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 hour ago, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

Surrender he does have some benefits of the talent but Sam against the bears, bill,, giants says that he isn't better. Not now atleast.

He wasn’t bad against the Bears.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

I mean listen I am loving howell and think he can be our guy if he keeps this up. But purdy throws with way more anticipation and accuracy. Surrender he does have some benefits of the talent but Sam against the bears, bill,, giants says that he isn't better. Not now atleast.

 

Purdy is good, but he's also come back down to Earth a bit over the last few weeks.

 

But also remember that Purdy has the benefit of playing for possibly the best offensive mind in the NFL in Shanny. Just take a look at Jimmy G. He was at least seen as a very good QB in SF (though not elite). Then he went to LV, bombed, and has now been benched in favor of Aiden O'Connell.

[Stihl89]

😬😬😬

[wit33]

 

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Speaking of the O line, was listening to Keim talk about how the protections have improved with Larsen in the fold.  Apparently, Gates wasn't the hottest FA signing.

 

Fortunately with this type of signing, you adapt and move on without any real financial implications. 

 

5 hours ago, MisterPinstripe said:

What an indictment of this coaching staff that they kept rolling out Gates for 7 games letting Howell get crushed because they refused to make a change. Suddenly the last two games Howell has a lot more time. Incompetence or ego to refusing to admit you made a bad signing and continue to let your young QB get crushed. How many games did we lose because of letting Gates who is clueless with protections continue to call them. 

 

Must also indict the staff for having replacements. I don’t make the rules. 
 

4 hours ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

I’m watching ESPN and todays trivia question revealed that Baker Mayfield broke Dan Marino’s record for most TD passes by a rookie.  I bring this up to because 1) Howell’s skill set/physique is very similar to Mayfeld’s and 2) some of y’all may wanna pump the brakes a little bit with this corny “10 games ZOMG!!!” nonsense.

Intangibles seem to matter at the QB spot. Seems like Howell is pretty strong mentally, you know, from all personal conversations I’ve had with him lol

 

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Purdy is good, but he's also come back down to Earth a bit over the last few weeks.

 

But also remember that Purdy has the benefit of playing for possibly the best offensive mind in the NFL in Shanny. Just take a look at Jimmy G. He was at least seen as a very good QB in SF (though not elite). Then he went to LV, bombed, and has now been benched in favor of Aiden O'Connell.

I wonder when Lamar Jackson will come back to earth 🌏 👀

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

Fortunately with this type of signing, you adapt and move on without any real financial implications. 

👀

 

Not really.  He's not some superstar with a big contract.  But this isnt exactly a minimum contract, nothing burger either. 

 

7 million cap hit if you let him go in the off season, 8 if its pre June.

8 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

Intangibles seem to matter at the QB spot. Seems like Howell is pretty strong mentally, you know, from all personal conversations I’ve had with him lol

 

👀

 

Speaking of the Baker comparison.  Baker by his own admission wasn't the easiest guy to get along with.  Baker is high strung as heck.  Howell is as calm as it can be. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Llevron]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The offensive adjustment that helped the Commanders beat the Patriots

 

 

“We were prepared for the Giants, but I think, after quite frankly getting embarrassed in a lot of situations, it forced us to focus on the little details,” McLaurin said Sunday. He noted there were too many plays when Howell, the receivers and offensive line were “on different pages,” adding, “The communication, it was emphasized all week.”

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/06/commanders-offense-patriots-blitz/

 

This is a good read and there are tons of little nuggets like this in there that suggest that, while the play calls can improve, a lot of our offensive struggles stem from this being a new offense. They are still working on communication. There is a lot of room left for them to grow. The more they improve the more I like the idea of seeing them for a second season just to see how good they can get. 

 

There is hella potential here with this group. The OC included. 

[Daniel.redskins]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Howell is better than Purdy. Purdy benefits from insane talent around him. His game has gone to doo doo once some of those guys started getting hurt.

Agree, I would rather have Howell. Howell is stronger and harder to tackle. I would say they are equally mobile.

 

Purdy has a very high IQ. I just think Howell has a higher ceiling.   

[Chris 44]

1 hour ago, Stihl89 said:

😬😬😬

Stupid question, but what do the different sized circles meen?

[wit33]

52 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not really.  He's not some superstar with a big contract.  But this isnt exactly a minimum contract, nothing burger either. 

 

7 million cap hit if you let him go in the off season, 8 if its pre June.

 

Peanuts. 

 

No reason to get rid of him. It didn't work out as the starting center, but now he transitions to a backup role at all three interior positions. He's also a player with extremely high intangibles.

 

It will cost 5 million this offseason to cut him. As I mentioned, there's no reason to do so unless he suffers a serious injury.

 

 

52 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Speaking of the Baker comparison.  Baker by his own admission wasn't the easiest guy to get along with.  Baker is high strung as heck.  Howell is as calm as it can be. 

100%. 

[Conn]

2 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Caleb allegedly wants ownership stake in team.

It’s against NFL rules, so it doesn’t really matter if it’s true or not (there’s also no evidence that twitter report was true anyways). It’s impossible either way. 

[Bifflog]

1 hour ago, Stihl89 said:

😬😬😬

 

Seems like the pile of sacks is handicapping both the X and the Y axis (as they should), so hoping the 2nd half looks better with continued improvement in that area...

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

I mean listen I am loving howell and think he can be our guy if he keeps this up. But purdy throws with way more anticipation and accuracy. Surrender he does have some benefits of the talent but Sam against the bears, bill,, giants says that he isn't better. Not now atleast.

 

I would think if a QB has more time and protection will throw with more anticipation and accuracy. Howell has been sacked 44 times so far and Purdy only 14. Also our D is no help so the O can't rely on them for keep the game closer and when things get out of hand it is harder to catch up and more mistakes an O will start making when in panic mode. Also Howell has the stronger arm then Purdy so that is a plus. Moreover, Howell can also run and wobble and hit his way to get 24 yards for a 1st down lol

[illone]

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Eagles didn't move on from Hurts with a new regime.  Giants didn't with Daniel Jones.  Gibbs didn't.  Zorn didn't.  Jay didn't.

 

I get the thought but you'd figure a new regime would be more likely to ride with Howell than discard him if he keeps playing like this.

 

It would be much easier to win now in 2024 by using the cap room and draft picks to build around Howell than start from scratch.

 

 

Zorn doesnt count towards any legitimate NFl trend im willing to analyze lol.

 

Also when Gibbs returned in 2004, he immediately brought in Brunell for $40 million.

 

However, I still agree with you the prudent and pragmatic move is to stick with Howell. I just have residual PTSD (post traumatic snyder disorder) that something weird will happen and the new GM will want his own guy. Probably wont happen and a completely emotional and fanatical concern, but here we are lol. 

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

I wonder when Lamar Jackson will come back to earth 🌏 👀

 

When did he leave? Sam Howell has more total TDs than Jackson does. (no I'm not saying Sam is a better QB at the moment, just pointing out that Lamar isn't exactly a TD factory, even with his running).

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I gather the two drops were held against him.

That's fair.  Though I only remember 1 drop, but if he had 2, yeah, that's going to be an issue.  

[philibusters]

13 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

That's fair.  Though I only remember 1 drop, but if he had 2, yeah, that's going to be an issue.  

 

Pff only credit him with one drop on an on target pass.  He did have another drop but the throw was not that good and PFF did ding with him a drop on an on target pass.  He had a 67 PFF grade for the game, so solid

[Voice_of_Reason]

11 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

Zorn doesnt count towards any legitimate NFl trend im willing to analyze lol.

 

Also when Gibbs returned in 2004, he immediately brought in Brunell for $40 million.

 

However, I still agree with you the prudent and pragmatic move is to stick with Howell. I just have residual PTSD (post traumatic snyder disorder) that something weird will happen and the new GM will want his own guy. Probably wont happen and a completely emotional and fanatical concern, but here we are lol. 

So, the Brunnell deal was in the completely inflated contract era. It was essentially a 1 year $8.6M guaranteed deal with a whole lot of garbage at the end to make it look good for the agent, which Brunnell was never going to see.

 

Also, when Gibbs got here, he had Patrick Ramsey who had PTSD (Post Traumatic Spurrier Syndrome) and Gibbs wanted a veteran, and I think that's reasonable for a coach who'd been out of the league for 12 years.

 

The thing to remember about Howell though is he is going to be here no matter what.  Or rather, the only reason he isn't here is because he's traded for some ludicrous hall so we can trade up to get Williams, or something like that.  Otherwise, he's going to be here.  

 

If Howell continues to play the way he is playing over the remaining 8 games, and continues to hit his current averages, he's going to pass for 4,658 yards, 26 TDs, 17 INTs.  

 

There's no GM who would walk away from that production for nothing.  Yeah, the INT number would be a touch on the high side, and you'd want that to come down.  But for a first year starter, you'd take it and run.  And for whatever it's worth, the yards would be second in franchise history behind Kirk's of 4,917.  I don't think Howell is going to catch Kirk's record.  But he's got a REALLY good chance of breaking Kirk's 2015 second place finish of 4,166.  

 

At absolute worst he's a massive trade piece if he hits those numbers.  I don't think you'd draft somebody to replace him with him still on the roster. You might be able to move him for more than a first round pick if that's the direction you want to go.  I want to be clear: I wouldn't.  But SOMEBODY would be willing to pony up a first + for Howell, going into year 3 of a 5th round rookie deal if he hits those numbers and the new regime wants to start over with a new QB.

 

You don't draft a QB and then send Howell to the bench after a season like that.  You either build around him, or you trade him and start over.

 

Unless there is a complete and total epic collapse, Howell will be the starter here next year.  

 

PS: I actually hope he has some ridiculous monster 450 yard game somewhere along the way and takes a real run at Kirk's passing yard record.  That would be super cool.  

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

48 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Peanuts. 

 

No reason to get rid of him. It didn't work out as the starting center, but now he transitions to a backup role at all three interior positions. He's also a player with extremely high intangibles.

 

It will cost 5 million this offseason to cut him. As I mentioned, there's no reason to do so unless he suffers a serious injury.

 

 

100%. 

 

Missing the math, how does it cost less to cut him that the guaranteed money on the contract?

 

7-8 million cost you a player.  It's peanuts compared to paying stars big money.  But its a player or two players in FA.   Not every contract is Montez Sweat.  You got plenty in other ranges.  We should know because this FO majors in that range.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

QBR isn't the be-all end-all QB stat, but for what it's worth:

 

Sam's QBR for Sunday was 65.4.  

 

Mac Jones' was 29.5.

 

Right now, Sam is sitting at a season QBR of 47.3 ranked 20th. 

 

What's really weighing him down is an 11.7 QBR against the Bills. That's so yuk, and it's going to pull his ranking down all year unless he has some 90+ game to offset it to average. 

 

Through yesterday's games, for week 9, Howell has the 9th highest QBR.

 

Not too shabby.