The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, skinny21 said:

For me, I’m optimistic and excited about Howell.  He’s got Heinicke beat in spades on the tangible things.  My reservation is the mental side.  The bar is low given how Heinicke has been playing, but if Howell is having trouble throwing on time, reading defenses, is holding the ball a bit longer (behind this oline)… things could certainly be worse.  Now, with that said, I’m down with giving it a go - feels like we’re in a position that we need some spark to have a serious chance at reaching the playoffs, let alone winning a game.

Offensively speaking I don't believe things can go worse. Heinicke is the worst starter in the league statistically. (That said I'd take him, for us, over other starters, but not because of his skillset... because of his grit, will and ice cold blood in his veins). I don't think it can get worse. 

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

It fell apart a bit due to injuries (I don’t fault Ron for that though - they had some decent depth).  I think they can get this group back to decent pretty easily, including some depth, but more than that might be difficult.

 

Leno, Norwell, Roullier, Cosmi, Lucas starting.  Paul (and maybe a returning Schweitzer) as G depth.  Larsen backing up the center spot (is he a FA?).  Gotta find a tackle for depth at minimum, and apparently multiple backup centers, lol.

 

Covid destroyed the whole team at the end of that season.  But overall part of the hype around Masko is the O line didn't fall of the cliff in spite of injuries.    If I recall the 6th rated O line by PFF last year.  Rivera was so high on it, he would talk about it to whomever would listen during the off season about why this is a good place for a QB.

 

And to Rivera's credit he didn't put lipstick on a pig when talking about it this year -- when asked what is the difference between this and last in an interview he said one time -- the difference is the O line.  It's not hard to tell he's pissed at what happened to that unit. 

 

Judging by some posts it feels like the Masko is a genius and we won't have to worry about the O line take that we said over and over again by multiple people never happened, instead what we are seeing this year is same old same old and what we've seen every year.     My point is real time feelings trump the past.  But I haven't forgotten the Masko is a genius phase.  And no I don't think they are down for the count on the O line.  Beat guys among others have talked about it -- its likely going to be all hands on deck to fix that O line in the off season.

 

One mystery for me is I keep hearing they are high on Chris Paul.  If so why not play him?

Edited December 21, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[88Comrade2000]

8 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

And the reason why I would hope the new owner would extend Ron and the FO immediately. Eliminate the uncertainty with our upcoming Free Agents and allow the decisions to be made in the best interest of the TEAM and not out of job desperation. You can still fire/replace them 6 months later if you want to (and hopefully the new owner isn't too cheap to do so) but entering into an off-season in limbo never makes for a smooth transition.

Uh no. Ron still has 2 years. 23 is a prove it year to the new owner, to whether he wants Ron or make his first coaching hire.

[FLSkinz83]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

One mystery for me is I keep hearing they are high on Chris Paul.  If so why not play him?

 

I mentioned this weeks ago.   I'd bench Norwell.  

[JSSkinz]

The O line is back to being as shaky as it was when Wentz was back there panicking every play. The question is does he hit that Samuel pass in stride for a TD instead of leaving it short as Heinicke did last game, that one play could have created a different outcome in the last game.

 

It feels like Heinicke needs to show well in the first half or he could get pulled.

[NewCliche21]

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Offensively speaking I don't believe things can go worse. Heinicke is the worst starter in the league statistically. (That said I'd take him, for us, over other starters, but not because of his skillset... because of his grit, will and ice cold blood in his veins). I don't think it can get worse. 

 

As a coach, would it in some way alienate your players to put in Howell?  Like the season equivalent of putting the number 2 or 3 in for the last 10 minutes of the 4th quarter in a blowout?  I just have Shanny in my head at 3-6 saying "we'll see who wants to be here next year", but at this point would it demoralize the team to hand it over to Howell?

I'm trying to think of how to get him on the field without telling the team that we're packing it up and getting ready for next year.

[88Comrade2000]

I think the Howell hive Will be disappointed when they likely see Howell gone after the 24 season.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Mark Tyler’s tweets speak to my soul.

 

I’m just less confident that Turner would give him the same script as TH or that Wentz will be decisive enough to get the ball out faster when he has to throw.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

As a coach, would it in some way alienate your players to put in Howell?  Like the season equivalent of putting the number 2 or 3 in for the last 10 minutes of the 4th quarter in a blowout?  I just have Shanny in my head at 3-6 saying "we'll see who wants to be here next year", but at this point would it demoralize the team to hand it over to Howell?

I'm trying to think of how to get him on the field without telling the team that we're packing it up and getting ready for next year.

 

It could. It could also rally the troops if he plays well. Those are the gambles. I don't know that it could be worse than the way the D quit against the Giants after Heinicke's second fumble. Or the way the team played with Wentz a few times. But who knows.

 

1 minute ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I think the Howell hive Will be disappointed when they likely see Howell gone after the 24 season.

 

This kind of commentary is drivel. There is nothing to be disappointed in because he's not playing. If he goes elsewhere I will be happy for him because he's getting his shot. Whether he works out or not. Drafting guys to sit on the bench on a team with a horrendous QB situation is silly. But it's the reality of the business. 

[FootballZombie]

I've said it before but you can't really do worse than TH. What is another guy gonna do? Lead the NFL in turnover worthy plays? Have terrible accuracy and completion percentage? Not be able to hand the ball off 40 times? Limit the playbook? Not be a running threat? We get all of that already from TH.

 

If Howell comes in and does those same things, but provides a legit rushing threat, your coming out ahead.

 

I have absolute faith him or someone else could come in and provide a boost b/c I don't need to believe that the incoming QB has to be good, or even bad for that matter, to significantly improve on what TH provides.

 

And if you get actual better QB play, even if it just qualifies as bad, your talking a monumental increase in quality. If you get 40ish PFF ranked QB play vs our current 60ish, sure the QB play is poor, but that is an insane jump in quality.

 

A replacement does not even have to play good ball to see massive improvement in the team. That is how poorly TH is playing.

[NewCliche21]

Just now, KDawg said:

 

It could. It could also rally the troops if he plays well. Those are the gambles. I don't know that it could be worse than the way the D quit against the Giants after Heinicke's second fumble. Or the way the team played with Wentz a few times. But who knows.

 

 

Yeah, I just wanted to get your perspective because I have no experience on a sideline.  I could see it as "you guys deserve the best shot, this one ain't working, so let's try the unknown" or "well **** it might as well see what the kid has since we're not going anywhere."

[shemp nixon]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Covid destroyed the whole team at the end of that season.  But overall part of the hype around Masko is the O line didn't fall of the cliff in spite of injuries.    If I recall the 6th rated O line by PFF last year.  Rivera was so high on it, he would talk about it to whomever would listen during the off season about why this is a good place for a QB.

 

And to Rivera's credit he didn't put lipstick on a pig when talking about it this year -- when asked what is the difference between this and last in an interview he said one time -- the difference is the O line.  It's not hard to tell he's pissed at what happened to that unit. 

 

Judging by some posts it feels like the Masko is a genius and we won't have to worry about the O line take that we said over and over again by multiple people never happened, instead what we are seeing this year is same old same old and what we've seen every year.     My point is real time feelings trump the past.  But I haven't forgotten the Masko is a genius phase.  And no I don't think they are down for the count on the O line.  Beat guys among others have talked about it -- its likely going to be all hands on deck to fix that O line in the off season.

 

One mystery for me is I keep hearing they are high on Chris Paul.  If so why not play him?

Kinds seems like Rivera and the coaches decided this would be a redshirt year for Howell and Paul, thinking long term for both players.Seems like they want to hols to that plan.

[skins island connection]

Is it a wise decision to put Howell in replacing TH with this o-line?  He hasn't sniffed the field in anything critical, and with the line being in shambles it could very well shell shock Howell.

 

I can see the argument of putting Wentz in, but that would most likely give him the reps he needs and costing the team in money to pay others. And i'm not so optimistic on putting him in, unless an injury happens, just for the sake of him being a statue in the backfield, against a strong defense in SF, they would not only cream him but he would end up getting his reps and costing the team twice.

 

I was hoping TH would flourish, but its not happening. Why? Yes the line is porous, and Turner knows this, yet he doesn't seem to be calling plays to best fit the line situation. Jet sweeps aren't working, and it puts them behind on 2nd & 3rd downs. If TH starts against SF Turner needs to call more designed roll-outs to get him outta the pocket, because there's rarely one that lasts more than 2 seconds.

This team should have been firing on all cylinders Sunday night, but as usual they come out flat, lethargic, and unsure. Against SF, I don't see any QB being better than the other but mobility is the priority, and Wentz just doesn't have it.

[Conn]

11 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I think the Howell hive Will be disappointed when they likely see Howell gone after the 24 season.

Why do you post stupid **** like this. If he’s good, he won’t be gone two seasons from now in ‘24. If he’s not good, then people who like Howell won’t be disappointed. Because in that hypothetical he won’t be good. Trying to make out like the people who like Howell for legitimate reasons are equivalent to the Heinicke “hive” is dumb. Making it into another one of your patented incorrect predictions that change every four months is even dumber 

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, skins island connection said:

Is it a wise decision to put Howell in replacing TH with this o-line?  He hasn't sniffed the field in anything critical, and with the line being in shambles it could very well shell shock Howell.

 

I can see the argument of putting Wentz in, but that would most likely give him the reps he needs and costing the team in money to pay others. And i'm not so optimistic on putting him in, unless an injury happens, just for the sake of him being a statue in the backfield, against a strong defense in SF, they would not only cream him but he would end up getting his reps and costing the team twice.

 

I was hoping TH would flourish, but its not happening. Why? Yes the line is porous, and Turner knows this, yet he doesn't seem to be calling plays to best fit the line situation. Jet sweeps aren't working, and it puts them behind on 2nd & 3rd downs. If TH starts against SF Turner needs to call more designed roll-outs to get him outta the pocket, because there's rarely one that lasts more than 2 seconds.

This team should have been firing on all cylinders Sunday night, but as usual they come out flat, lethargic, and unsure. Against SF, I don't see any QB being better than the other but mobility is the priority, and Wentz just doesn't have it.

 

He played behind an offensive line you would have started on at UNC. He has experience running for his life. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

He played behind an offensive line you would have started on at UNC. He has experience running for his life. 

 

Yep.  And while it helps the pass protection to have a QB with some wiggle in the pocket it also helps to have a mobile QB who will run and can keep the defense honest.

 

Jonathan Allen and Payne talked about this in a recent interview saying that a QB that can run, can slow them down because they have multiple things to think about including not leaving a rushing lane open based on their rush.   They also said a running QB wears them down where by the end of the game they are exhausted.

 

Howell can actually break tackles while running.  Granted I wouldn't want him to do it all the time but for example the run at the end of the game where Taylor got thwarted at the one yard line and in the end that was a decisive play for the outcome.  Howell would have IMO easily bulldozed his way into the end zone. 

20 minutes ago, shemp nixon said:

Kinds seems like Rivera and the coaches decided this would be a redshirt year for Howell and Paul, thinking long term for both players.Seems like they want to hols to that plan.

 

Definitely.  I would give them game reps.  But I get the whole running with experience in the middle of a playoff push.  While I disagree with Ron, I get the logic on his end. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

34 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Mark Tyler’s tweets speak to my soul.

 

I’m just less confident that Turner would give him the same script as TH or that Wentz will be decisive enough to get the ball out faster when he has to throw.

 

I'd be VERY surprised if Turner went to the same early season game plan with Wentz back.

 

For me with Wentz its simple.

 

A.  I buy 100% that this is a better situation for him than before.  Longer time to digest the playbook.  Better running game.  Better defense.

 

B.  But, 2 out of the next three defenses are killer good.  you are throwing him into the fire when he hasn't played in eons.  Taylor has been playing so there is no adjustment period needed.

 

C.  I don't like Wentz in big games-big situations and that's really what we got until the end of the season

 

So I am very torn.  I think what happens is similar to what the beat guys do which is Heinicke is on a short leash against SF, if things go south, bring him in then.  Pressure might be off if they are way behind so you can get a sense of whether he's doing better.  the downside to that though is if they are way behind then they have to pass every play and with the SF D line they will be teeing off. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[JSSkinz]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

A.  I buy 100% that this is a better situation for him than before.  Longer time to digest the playbook. 

I hear this a lot lately but I'm not so sure how much progression you get from mental reps and classroom study.

 

I'm curious though 

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, JSSkinz said:

I hear this a lot lately but I'm not so sure how much progression you get from mental reps and classroom study.

 

I'm curious though 

 

He's practicing with the game plan now.  As many QBs have said doing mental reps during a game helps them master a playbook -- watching the sequences of the plays unfold, etc.  But yeah I am sure nothing comes close to beating game reps.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

Okay, my memory is a bit foggy.... But are they practicing on dead grass? 

 

Words cannot describe that. 

 

Was thinking the same thing. I didn't practice on conditions that bad in high school, for ****'s sake. What a laughingstock. God, I cannot wait until Dan is gone.

[88Comrade2000]

34 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

It could. It could also rally the troops if he plays well. Those are the gambles. I don't know that it could be worse than the way the D quit against the Giants after Heinicke's second fumble. Or the way the team played with Wentz a few times. But who knows.

 

 

This kind of commentary is drivel. There is nothing to be disappointed in because he's not playing. If he goes elsewhere I will be happy for him because he's getting his shot. Whether he works out or not. Drafting guys to sit on the bench on a team with a horrendous QB situation is silly. But it's the reality of the business. 

Ron wasn’t going into 22 relying on a rookie qb. He made the play for Carson, which didn’t work out.

 

The reason I say Sam is likely gone after 24 because he won’t have an environment here to get a chance to realistically compete for job.

 

Ron’s focus is convincing his new boss to get a new deal and not be dismissed after 23. He can’t do that with Sam. A new coach in 24 will bring on his own qbs. Howell may make the roster since he’s likely the only qb they will keep. Ron’s not there in 24, his qb choice for 23 was a bust and that qb is likely gone also.

 

If Sam is to have an nfl career, even as a backup; it likely won’t be with us.

[mistertim]

Just now, 88Comrade2000 said:

Ron wasn’t going into 22 relying on a rookie qb. He made the play for Carson, which didn’t work out.

 

The reason I say Sam is likely gone after 24 because he won’t have an environment here to get a chance to realistically compete for job.

 

Ron’s focus is convincing his new boss to get a new deal and not be dismissed after 23. He can’t do that with Sam. A new coach in 24 will bring on his own qbs. Howell may make the roster since he’s likely the only qb they will keep. Ron’s not there in 24, his qb choice for 23 was a bust and that qb is likely gone also.

 

If Sam is to have an nfl career, even as a backup; it likely won’t be with us.

 

There is an absolutely insane amount of speculation here. You might be better off writing NFL fanfics or something.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

30 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd be VERY surprised if Turner went to the same early season game plan with Wentz back.

You’re probably right, I don’t think Ron would even allow it at this point.

 

30 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

A.  I buy 100% that this is a better situation for him than before.  Longer time to digest the playbook.  Better running game.  Better defense.

Agreed on all this, although I’m uncertain on whether he’s proficient enough to get the ball out as quick as it will need to come out.

 

31 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

B.  But, 2 out of the next three defenses are killer good.  you are throwing him into the fire when he hasn't played in eons.  Taylor has been playing so there is no adjustment period needed.

I talked about this exact scenario a month or so ago, that we would find ourselves here - with a struggling Taylor, a healthy Wentz, and a few daunting defenses down the most important stretch of the season.  Ron being faced with the damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario.  

Aside from Taylor figuring out how to play well, the best case scenario for Ron is that Taylor plays poorly enough it’s okay to bench him at halftime with a game still in reach.  Putting Wentz out there with the team already down is less pressure on both him and Ron.
 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

My favorite insider is John Keim.  I trust him the most.   Among other things, he was the only beat guy I can recall saying watch out for Carzon Wentz, he's on the table for this team during the off season.

 

Recalling some of his podcasts where he talked about Howell

 

A.  They really liked him in the draft.

B.  Before trading for Wentz, he and other rookie QBs were on the table for them

C.  They'd have considered Howell as early as the 2nd round.

D.  When he was still there in the 5th, impossible for them to resist.

 

I get the vibe that Howell might have a shot at the starting job next year, depending on what happens in the off season and they planned to red shirt him this off season 

 

Zampese on Howell

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/discussing-carson-wentzs-potential-sam-howells-development-with-commanders-qbs-coach-ken-zampese/

 

Switching gears to Sam Howell: You've coached a lot of rookie quarterbacks who have gone on to be long-term starters (Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, etc.) What stands out about Howell in terms of what he brings to the NFL?

"He's humble, he's got a live arm, and he likes to be coached. That's kind of Sam in a nutshell. He really gleans everything off of every meeting and wants to know, and anytime I say, 'Hey Sam, let's get together before or after practice,' he says, 'Yes sir,' and we're on it, we're doing it. And that's going to go a long way to his development toward being fast, not slow. He's very coachable, he's got a high motor for work and his focus is good, and he has a lot of pride. That's the other thing that sticks out: he's got a lot of pride. He sees himself in a very upwardly-mobile-in-this-profession way, and he should, because he can.

 

"He doesn't give himself a crutch if he misses a throw. He knows he can make it because it should be easy for him in his mind because 'I can do all of these things, and when I don't, I'm very disappointed,' as opposed to, 'Yeah, you know I just missed one. Whatever.' It's not like that for him. He holds himself accountable very well.

"He's not happy about it. Those things happen because guys are rookies, but when you don't get something that doesn't happen right, there's a sting that goes along with it. And if you don't use it for fuel, you don't gain from the experience. He uses all the stings as fuel, and that's the important part, no matter what year you are but particularly as a rookie because you get so many of them."

What are the biggest areas you want to see him improve throughout his rookie campaign?

"I want to see his pocket moving and sliding to make a play. And then knowing when to cut your losses and run; just the natural feel of that part of the game, like to see that. We've seen him out here on one-hitch fire the ball around. He's been very productive, and now we'll get to see it in the game. I want to see the improvisational skills."

 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/commanders-coach-ron-rivera-talks-140037346.html

After Saturday’s practice, Rivera was asked where Howell was in his development.

“I think he’s getting more and more comfortable,” Rivera said of Howell. “There’s some little details to his technique and his footwork that I know ]QB coach] Kenny [Zampese]’s really harping on. In college, you can get away with those things, and he did, and he did a really great job, but there are some things that in this league you have to be really good at.”

“Great example, a couple of times in the preseason when he got sacked or got hit, it was understanding that you’re in shotgun; we considered this a five-step drop. Well, it’s not catch the ball, shuffle your feet and throw it. It’s you may have to take a step and a half to make it a five-step drop and that helps aid in the timing, helps aid in the protection, because if you’re only at three and a half, four yards, that guard or that tackles expecting you to be at five or six and you’re not, that’s tough on him. So those are little things that he has to understand what certain plays call for in terms of the depth of your drop and how important that is to your protection.”

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Offensively speaking I don't believe things can go worse. Heinicke is the worst starter in the league statistically. (That said I'd take him, for us, over other starters, but not because of his skillset... because of his grit, will and ice cold blood in his veins). I don't think it can get worse. 

The bar is low for sure, and I understand (and mostly share) your optimism for Howell.  I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility though that Howell throws more picks (including pick 6s), takes more sacks as he holds the ball, has trouble sustaining drives, etc.  As I said, it’s a risk I’d be willing to take - the possibility of more positive plays is alluring - but IMO it is indeed a risk.

 

I see it as Howell having a much higher ceiling than TH, but as of this moment (until he’s had more time in this system) the lower floor.  Now I may be totally wrong about the floor, but until I see him play, that’s where my head is at.  As bad as Heinicke has been, I’ve seen worse qb performances.