The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

33 minutes ago, GoDeep81 said:

What I don't get is people continually crapping on the guy.

For me personally, I like the guy.  But I get blue balls watching this offense with him at the helm. There’s a lot of meat left on the bone every week. The only time I feel any sense of confidence is strangely enough when the chips are stacked against him, basically when it looks like he should be on the verge of hitting the bench or the end of a game, he comes alive.  And even then it’s literally unbelievable what he’s been able to do - whether that’s make a throw like that 4th down to Samuel in the 1st Giants game or not getting picked off the umpteen times it appears he should.

 

All that said, I can accept that the backup QB isn’t very good.  What’s annoying though is the constant “he’s not the future”, “he’s not great or even good” disclaimers then followed by descriptions that sound like a guy who is pretty damn good.  Add to that the defenses of how he plays every week, and it’s like so you’re saying he’s not good - but yet if he’s really not doing all the bad stuff we criticize and is doing all the good stuff they say he is - how is he “not good”?Add to that the fantasy stuff about how he’s this galvanizing force that everyone rallies behind and plays better as a result.

 

Basically, like the guy, don’t really love his game for a prolonged period of starts, but cannot stand the Hive.

[GoDeep81]

6 minutes ago, method man said:

 

When folks like Nathan Peterman and Nick Mullens are lead backups, only an idiot would say that Heinicke is not a top 25 backup QB in the NFL

 

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

His post seemed pretty clear. Top 25 QB in the league. I'm curious about this myself, actually. 

 

I just keep asking cause I can't believe anyone actually thinks TH is a "starting" QB, as a 1st option? 

 

But to answer the questions.

 

Top 25 starter: NO

Top 10 backup: YES

Do I support TH: YES 

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

For me personally, I like the guy.  But I get blue balls watching this offense with him at the helm. There’s a lot of meat left on the bone every week. The only time I feel any sense of confidence is strangely enough when the chips are stacked against him, basically when it looks like he should be on the verge of hitting the bench or the end of a game, he comes alive.  And even then it’s literally unbelievable what he’s been able to do - whether that’s make a throw like that 4th down to Samuel in the 1st Giants game or not getting picked off the umpteen times it appears he should.

 

All that said, I can accept that the backup QB isn’t very good.  What’s annoying though is the constant “he’s not the future”, “he’s not great or even good” disclaimers then followed by descriptions that sound like a guy who is pretty damn good.  Add to that the defenses of how he plays every week, and it’s like so you’re saying he’s not good - but yet if he’s really not doing all the bad stuff we criticize and is doing all the good stuff they say he is - how is he “not good”?Add to that the fantasy stuff about how he’s this galvanizing force that everyone rallies behind and plays better as a result.

 

Basically, like the guy, don’t really love his game for a prolonged period of starts, but cannot stand the Hive.

 

Yeah I like Heinicke the person just fine. And I like Heinicke the backup fine. I enjoy watching when he makes crazy plays when the chips are stacked against him. I don't enjoy his play for the other 95% of the game where he's basically crap.

 

I also don't really like the Hive. I like Heinicke way more than I like his supporters. The Hive was insufferable. Kept telling everyone that Heinicke was the guy, that anyone who disagreed was a dumb hater, would loudly proclaim it whenever he did something well, completely disappeared when TH **** the bed in the latter part of last season, and now pop up every once in a while to make excuses for him and explain how he's actually good while simultaneously throwing out disclaimers about how they don't think he's good.

 

So they're basically still insufferable, but their numbers are dwindling these days.

 

What's interesting (and I think this is something @Skinsinparadisehas noted as well) is that Heinicke himself seems way more realistic and cognizant of his own limitations and issues than his supporters are.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

What's interesting (and I think this is something @Skinsinparadisehas noted as well) is that Heinicke himself seems way more realistic and cognizant of his own limitations and issues than his supporters are.

I’ve also made note of this.  He will literally admit fault for X, Y and Z in pressers, and we’ll

have folks up in here repeating over and over again that it’s everyone’s fault but his.  

[GoDeep81]

3 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

For me personally, I like the guy.  But I get blue balls watching this offense with him at the helm. There’s a lot of meat left on the bone every week.

 

All that said, I can accept that the backup QB isn’t very good.  What’s annoying though is the constant “he’s not the future”, “he’s not great or even good” disclaimers then followed by descriptions that sound like a guy who is pretty damn good.

 

Basically, like the guy, don’t really love his game for a prolonged period of starts, but cannot stand the Hive.

I've still yet to encounter a real "Hiver"?? Do they exist, and if so, what is their vision? Do they think we -shouldn't- look for a QB in the offseason? I feel like TH does exactly what a backup QB should do. He (so far) gets you more wins than losses. That's really the end of it, for me. His shortcomings are hard for me to criticize as I feel he's playing at the top of his potential. It IS frustrating to watch. But I feel like our game plan is more to blame than TH, at this point. We never stick with anything that's working. And there's plenty of stuff to be frustrated about. (would I mind if they throw Wentz or Howell in to see if they can do better? Not at all!) I'd actually prefer it now. I'd love to see what Howell could do. I feel like I know what Wentz can do, but Im still fine with finding out. 

[mistertim]

19 minutes ago, GoDeep81 said:

I've still yet to encounter a real "Hiver"?? Do they exist, and if so, what is their vision? Do they think we -shouldn't- look for a QB in the offseason? I feel like TH does exactly what a backup QB should do. He (so far) gets you more wins than losses. That's really the end of it, for me. His shortcomings are hard for me to criticize as I feel he's playing at the top of his potential. It IS frustrating to watch. But I feel like our game plan is more to blame than TH, at this point. We never stick with anything that's working. And there's plenty of stuff to be frustrated about. (would I mind if they throw Wentz or Howell in to see if they can do better? Not at all!) I'd actually prefer it now. I'd love to see what Howell could do. I feel like I know what Wentz can do, but Im still fine with finding out. 

 

Most of the old guard Hivers are covert now. They come in and defend him and then throw out disclaimers about how they're not saying he's the future or that he's a good QB...while simultaneously talking about him as if he's a good QB and could be the future. It's basically the football version of an obnoxious passive-aggressive person.

[Skinsinparadise]

ESPN, thinks Brady on their radar.  He has moxie, not Heinicke level moxie though. 

 

Feels too weird.  I think for sure that's only if Dan sells.  Forget if we are interested but just focusing on him, no way I'd think he'd want to come.

 

2023 NFL quarterback market: 19 teams that could add starters

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/35281031/2023-nfl-quarterback-market-19-teams-add-starters-offseason-via-free-agency-trade-draft

Washington Commanders

Current starter: Taylor Heinicke

What happened in Week 15: With some questionable pass interference calls in the mix, Heinicke and the Commanders' offense disappointed in a 20-12 loss to the rival Giants. He went 17 of 29 for 249 yards with a touchdown and added three carries for 33 yards, but he and his pals were able to muster only seven points on three trips to the red zone.

How has it gone in 2022? Surprisingly well! The Commanders traded for Carson Wentz to avoid another year with Heinicke as the starter, but after Wentz went down with a fractured finger in Week 6, Heinicke has kept winning. Outside of his sack rate, his numbers haven't been appreciably different from those of his predecessor's, but the results have been dramatically different. Wentz went 2-4 in his six starts, including a loss to the Titans in which he threw an interception from the 2-yard line down three points in the final few seconds of the game.

Heinicke has gone 5-2-1, and while I don't think teams should be using win-loss records as a meaningful gauge of quarterback performances, I'm not sure this organization feels the same way. He did enough to win the job away from Wentz while he's injured, and if the Commanders continue to push into the postseason, coach Ron Rivera might be more open to keeping Heinicke in the starting role in 2023 than he was a year ago.

Contract for 2023: Wentz is under contract, but probably not for long. He has two years and $53.4 million remaining on the ill-fated extension he signed with Philadelphia in 2019, but none of that money is guaranteed. The Commanders have to be planning to release the 29-year-old, and he will be looking at backup money if he chooses to continue playing. Something in line with Marcus Mariota's two-year, $18.8 million deal with the Falcons is probably where Wentz's next contract would land.

Heinicke's two-year, $4.8 million extension expires after the season. He's in line for a raise to upper-echelon backup money, either in Washington or elsewhere. That market comes in around $7 million per year. The Commanders will have $45 million in cap space if they release Wentz, so they shouldn't have any trouble affording a new deal for Heinicke if he continues to win games.

 

Other internal candidates: The two young quarterbacks on the roster are 2020 fifth-round pick Jake Fromm and rookie fifth-rounder Sam Howell, neither of whom have seen the field this season. Rivera didn't believe Howell was ready to step in as recently as a few weeks ago, so it still seems as if Howell is on the developmental track as the team's third quarterback.

Ties to any likely free agents: Quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese served in that role for the Browns in 2018, when they used the No. 1 overall pick on Baker Mayfield. Mayfield played some of his best football as a rookie and declined after Zampese left the organization the following offseason, but correlation isn't always causation. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner was also the quarterbacks coach in Minnesota when Teddy Bridgewater started his career.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: Tom Brady. Remember that the Commanders tried to trade for Russell Wilson before coming up short and landing Wentz instead. Bizarrely, while Wentz has struggled, missing out on Wilson has been one of the best things to happen to this franchise. I would expect Rivera to look toward veterans who represent significant upgrades on Heinicke, and he can pitch Brady on an excellent defense and a burgeoning group of offensive playmakers. The idea of Brady in burgundy seems bizarre, but then again, who thought the greatest player in league history would wear pewter?

 

Las Vegas Raiders

Current starter: Derek Carr

What happened in Week 15: In a season full of bizarre endings to close games, the Raiders came up with a unique finish by even their lofty standards. Trailing the Patriots 24-17 with 1:54 to go, Carr converted a fourth-and-10 to extend the game, completed three more passes and then hit Keelan Cole for a 30-yard touchdown (which might have been out of bounds) to tie the game at 24-24. The Patriots then followed by running the worst Scott Van Pelt "pitchy pitchy woo woo" play at the end of regulation, with Chandler Jones taking a gift from Jakobi Meyers to the house for a game-winning touchdown.

It was an uneven game for Carr, who came up big late after helping the team blow an early lead. With the Patriots taking Davante Adams out of the contest, Carr struggled to find his secondary receivers and threw a pick-six on a screen to Kyle Dugger. He finished 20 of 38 for 231 yards with three touchdowns and the pick-six on a day in which the much-maligned Raiders defense held Mac Jones to 112 yards on 31 pass attempts.

How has it gone in 2022? It has been a frustrating season for the Raiders, who have alternated crushing defeats with emotional victories. They blew their fifth double-digit lead of the season on Sunday and came within a single play of losing all five of those contests. Carr and the offense have gotten off to hot starts and struggled to move the ball as the game has gone along, leading to long stretches where the opposing team's offense fuels a comeback.

As usual, Carr isn't the problem with this team. He has settled in as the league's 10th-best quarterback by QBR, even if his raw numbers aren't quite as impressive as they were 2020 or 2021. As the Raiders search for solutions to the other holes on their roster, though, it's inevitable to wonder whether the sort of team that gets the most out of having a veteran quarterback making a market value salary as opposed to a younger, cheaper option.

Contract for 2023: The three-year, $121.5 million extension Carr signed in April isn't quite what it seemed at the time. In reality, the deal paid him about $5 million up front to lock in the right to pay him $116.3 million between 2023 and 2025. The Raiders don't have to decide whether they want to make that move until February 15, when $40.4 million of his base salaries guarantee for the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

Carr has a no-trade clause on this deal, but it's unclear whether he would be willing to accept a deal to another team if that organization appealed to the 31-year-old. The Raiders could also cut him outright and free up $29.3 million in cap space, although they would surely prefer to get something in return for the veteran quarterback.

Other internal candidates: Coach Josh McDaniels & Co. traded for former Patriots draftee Jarrett Stidham, who was briefly supposed to be the replacement for Tom Brady in New England. Stidham has posted a 52.8 passer rating on 61 career pass attempts, including an 8-for-13 performance in spot duty with the Raiders this season. His rookie contract expires at the end of the season. Chase Garbers, who started for four seasons at Cal, is on the practice squad.

Ties to any likely free agents: Yep. McDaniels is intimately familiar with both Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo, both of whom are expected to hit the open market this offseason. The Raiders have plenty of playmakers, although their defense is a disaster and their offensive line has been a work in progress for most of the season. Nevada's lack of a state income tax also gives them a financial advantage relative to most of the league's other teams in what they can offer a traveling quarterback.

You could argue Carr is a better player at this point of his career than either Brady or Garoppolo, and I wouldn't disagree. At the same time, McDaniels might very well believe he can coax more out of the two passers he helped develop in New England than he can out of a veteran in Carr. It might be a lateral move, but McDaniels might prefer to move forward with one of his old charges, even if it means cutting Carr.

Most likely QB they'll pursue: I think they'll make a serious run at Brady. The Raiders don't need a splashy hire to sell out games in Las Vegas, but adding the greatest player in league history is an economic boon for any team. Brady's familiarity with McDaniels and the offense and the impressive group of playmakers are only a bonus. McDaniels already was fired once for getting his quarterback situation wrong in Denver. On top of all that, Brady would probably come at a lower cost than Carr over the next couple of seasons.

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

It's basically the football version of an obnoxious passive-aggressive person

Someone literally IM’d me a few minutes ago with pretty much this exact same description of these posters.

 

Passive aggressive is spot-on.  
 

He’s not good, but he doesn’t do anything bad. 😭

[El Mexican]

3 hours ago, Conn said:

 We have almost two seasons worth of games of him to reference at this point and you can’t see that? 

 

So it's a question of technique then?

I saw the man heave the ball in a critical point of the game.

3 hours ago, mistertim said:

I don't know how many times people have to point out that being able to throw a deep ball like that isn't much of a barometer for NFL arm strength.

 

Maybe. But it discredits the belief that "TH has a weak arm not apt for the NFL".

 

 

[BleedBNG]

I'm confused. Why do we want Wentz in if TH is playing poorly in SF? Like Wentz will do any better? I thought since the season is only 2 games away from being over (after SF), why do we want to say goodbye to our 2nd rounder for no good reason? They can't seriously be thinking of signing him (Wentz) again for next year. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by BleedBNG

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, BleedBNG said:

I'm confused. Why do we want Wentz in if TH is playing poorly in SF? Like Wentz will do any better? I thought since the season is only 2 games away from being over (after SF), why do we want to say goodbye to our 2nd rounder for no good reason? They can't seriously be thinking of signing him (Wentz) again for next year. 

The 2nd round pick is safe, we wouldn’t lose it.

 

As far as definitively knowing Wentz wouldn’t do any better. How do we know one way or another? 

[redskinss]

9 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

3 hours ago, mistertim said:

I don't know how many times people have to point out that being able to throw a deep ball like that isn't much of a barometer for NFL arm strength.

 

 

10 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

Maybe. But it discredits the belief that "TH has a weak arm not apt for the NFL".

 

[BleedBNG]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The 2nd round pick is safe, we wouldn’t lose it.

 

As far as definitively knowing Wentz wouldn’t do any better. How do we know one way or another? 

Hell if I know. I just didn't want to lose the 2nd round pick. I don't really care who they put in. My preference would be Howell at this point. 

[El Mexican]

53 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

ESPN, thinks Brady on their radar.  He has moxie, not Heinicke level moxie though. 

 

Feels too weird.  I think for sure that's only if Dan sells.  Forget if we are interested but just focusing on him, no way I'd think he'd want to come.

 

With this O-Line Brady would be signing a deathwish by coming here.

Dude wouldn't last a game.

[mistertim]

23 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

 

So it's a question of technique then?

I saw the man heave the ball in a critical point of the game.

 

Maybe. But it discredits the belief that "TH has a weak arm not apt for the NFL".

 

 

No. It doesn't. Like, at all.

 

Any coach who knows their football (we have coaches here who will and have attested to this) knows that the ability to heave a ball down the field is something that doesn't actually indicate arm strength, especially at the NFL level. Driving throws into tight windows, mid and deep outs, off platform throws, throwing on the run, driving the ball without a solid base...those are much better indicators of actual arm strength. Heinicke struggles with all of those things and that's when he gets into trouble. And it's because he has a weak arm (by NFL standards).

 

And it's not a question of technique. If it were a question of technique then every NFL QB would figure out what technique Josh Allen is using and then have a cannon. It's about latent ability, mostly genetics. Guys who have the genetics can generate that huge torque in their bodies that dudes like Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, etc. can.

 

Technique work can only serve to maximize the genetic ability, not go beyond it. It's like vertical leap. If you have a 27 inch vertical, you can probably add a couple of inches to that with technique work. But you'll never have a 40 inch vertical.

[HigSkin]

26 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

 

With this O-Line Brady would be signing a deathwish by coming here.

Dude wouldn't last a game.

 

They'll improve that oline next year.  I could see the attraction especially if Bezos buys the team.  A lot of high profile QB's that like the spotlight would be intrigued about coming here.  The only thing I wonder about was the rumors last year that Brady and Sean Peyton were a package deal to Miami.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by HigSkin

[Conn]

1 hour ago, El Mexican said:

 

So it's a question of technique then?

I saw the man heave the ball in a critical point of the game.

Maybe try reading the entire post you responded to instead of clipping one sentence to quote so that you can repeat yourself. I addressed everything you’re asking. So did others.

[Chump Bailey]

I'm not sure how I'd feel about Brady coming here. I am not a fan of his as a person. Not paying back his PPP loan for his supplement company and having taxpayers foot the bill left a very bad impression on me. That said, it's easy to see how a shored up OL and some tweaking on the defense could very well propel the team to at a minimum conference game. 

[Conn]

The other thing with Brady is that, because he’ll be playing retirement limbo for as long as he desires, he may actually still be available whenever we get a new owner in the late spring/early summer. Everyone else at QB will be mostly figured out around FA/the draft. But if we spend the offseason beefing up the OL and the rest of the roster, and leave a nice Brady-sized hole in the salary cap because the thing with Bezos or whoever is all but done and they’ve spoken…it’s not impossible. If your owners are Bezos/Jay-Z types the back channel pull is ridiculous. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Conn

[zCommander]

Grant Paulsen on the radio today believes that Wentz was brought here for more than just one year.  Wentz will start the last two games so they can see if he will be a viable solution for next year. They can't start the next year with a rook. 

 

I thought about it. It does make some sense and I would imagine Ron would rather go the vet route with the way team has played this year especially recently. Plus, Wentz will be well versed in Turner's offense as well with more time on the same offense. If you bring in another vet then they will need to learn a new offense and more time will be required. So bring back Wentz next year is probably the safer bet.

 

My concern would be at what cost?  $26.1 million and $27.3 million for 2023 and 2024?

[lavar1156]

There is zero reason to start TH this week. He will never be the full time starter. We need to find out now if Wentz is worth bringing back next year. All you Sam Howell people are hilarious. Rivera's job isn't safe, especially with a new owner. He won't risk playing a rookie.

[skins island connection]

13 minutes ago, zCommander said:

Grant Paulsen on the radio today believes that Wentz was brought here for more than just one year.  Wentz will start the last two games so they can see if he will be a viable solution for next year. They can't start the next year with a rook. 

 

I thought about it. It does make some sense and I would imagine Ron would rather go the vet route with the way team has played this year especially recently. Plus, Wentz will be well versed in Turner's offense as well with more time on the same offense. If you bring in another vet then they will need to learn a new offense and more time will be required. So bring back Wentz next year is probably the safer bet.

 

My concern would be at what cost?  $26.1 million and $27.3 million for 2023 and 2024?

 

 If Wentz does play I think he will struggle. then the excuse of 'rust' begins to echo.

If he IS brought back, then the 26-27 mil should be alot lower, given his performance in the beginning of the year. But I suspect he will demand top dollar, why I dunno, he certainly doesn't deserve it...

[El Mexican]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

No. It doesn't. Like, at all.

 

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

 

Sadly for us  it's never that easy.

This goes wayyy back decades where a technically and more "orthodox" QB is surpassed by another lesser guy that gives us a better shot at winning.

 

I see this TH drama as a continuation of this long franchise story. 

 

This season is clearly done. The TH experiment brought us to this juncture and I believe RR will just "dance with the one that brought you".

[BleedBNG]

 

[El Mexican]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

Maybe try reading the entire post you responded to instead of clipping one sentence to quote so that you can repeat yourself. I addressed everything you’re asking. So did others.

 

I'm quoting the relevant part of the argument to avoid text walls. Makes it easier to read.

 

But I'm seeing the same argument again and again with a huge bias. Clearly TH is an unbalanced QB, but he's the best QB we have right now.

 

Sad? Yes. But the blame should be placed on RR, not the guy throwing the passes since he's had more than enough time to evaluate him.

Placing all our chips on Wentz (and before that the bearded 40 y/o guy that lasted for about 1 quarter before getting injured) was a huge planning mistake.

 

That's two consecutive years the guy makes the same horrible QB evaluation error.