The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Going Commando]

17 minutes ago, Conn said:

Something about Pickett just bothers me and I can’t place it.

 

What’s the hit rate on 3-4 year starters who only blow up with an elite season their final year? 
 

I don’t just mean guys with only 1 elite year—that bucket includes guys who didn’t start before for a multitude of reasons and I’m not trying to capture that. I mean guys who played a LOT and who, by the time they finally had their first elite college season as a QB, were the oldest and most experienced on the field by far. It gets held against WRs and RBs as prospects, should it be held against QBs as well? Pickett was miserable until this year, and something clicked. That type of growth seems good but is the very late breakout actually a red flag the way that it can be for skill position players?

 

It's not a red flag.  And there is very recent precedent for this as Joe Burrow sucked before his final season too, then he went through a similar football epiphany where the game slowed down for him and he could finally read the code in the matrix. I think the difference between guys like Pickett and the other guys you're alluding to but didn't want to include in a comparison to Pickett is that he began his career at a mid-major P5 program and thus didn't have to transfer to find a starting job.  But all of them had early struggles and took a while for things to click for them.  Many of them just needed time and reps to get it, and a chance to play.  Pickett got that time and chance with the program he originally signed with.

 

Breakout age isn't an issue for QBs since they can play into their late 30s and losing speed and athleticism doesn't effect their production like it does for WRs and RBs.  Pickett will be a 24 year old rookie just like Cousins and Wilson and Burrow.  You're still looking at 10-15 years of potential starting caliber play from him, an absolute eternity in the NFL.  I think Pickett's age is an asset that makes him safer.  He'll be more mature and genuinely self-assured and it'll be harder for a lousy organization like ours to break his confidence.  He's seen and experienced more football too, and that's valuable.  Seen more coverages and pressures, refined his film and prep habits, made year over year adjustments and improvements.  You don't have to wait for this lightbulb to come on for him in the NFL like you will with the others because it has already happened.  He'll be able to handle a lot more on his plate early on in his NFL career.

 

And FWIW, it wasn't just Pickett that made the huge leap this season, it was the Pitt program as well.  Jordan Addison emerged and won the Biletnikoff and his OL finally got really good and they're all coming back for next season + they got Kedon Slovis in the transfer portal.  The playcalling seemed much improved this season (maybe they just finally figured out their identity).  Plus the ACC kind of decayed and left the way open for a new blood program to become a conference power.  Maybe they were poised to make this leap in 2020, but COVID caused an inordinate number of their best players to leave the program either before or during the season and their year went off the rails pretty quickly.  If not for that, maybe we're talking about Pickett as having two strong seasons instead of one. 

 

But even though Pickett got massively more productive and consistent this season, it wasn't like he had no talent before and sold his soul to the devil in the offseason to come back a different player.  JT O'Sullivan analyzed his game against BC in 2020 and you can see some plays in that game that anticipated the kind of season he could have in 2021 in hindsight.  Baller plays like that little 25 yard touch pass just above the fingertips of the underneath zone defender early in the first quarter, that crazy ass shovel pass on 3rd and 6 in the second quarter, and the 4th down scramble conversion in OT.  He's got a signature style even then in 2020, he just wasn't consistent and his team wasn't that good yet either.

[wit33]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I think you're looking at it from a bias view point and not seeing the whole picture. So.... there's that. This is what happens when we speak in absolutes.

 

No absolutes at all, that I agree with. With that said, I’m big on what known variables a player will provide. Maliki Willis will provide elite running traits from the QB position and that will have a direct elite positive impact on the run game if a team were to choose to go that direction. 
 

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

To your point: Yes, running around using a college offense and having him produce to a similar level as his collegiate level is close to his floor.

 

Of course, now you factor in that he's playing against NFL defenses who are used to seeing running QBs so while his legs are effective they are going to be a touch less on display in the League. 

 

Take a look at his 2021 game by game:

 

 

 

Running a college offense isn't exactly a great thing in the NFL, either.

 

Not arguing it as being great, but it’s proven to be effective in the NFL for the running QB. must admit, this edge continues to decline as the league continues to adapt and the overall athleticism of the QB continues to rise. The advantage of a Malik Willis 10 years ago is greater than today, but an advantage still exists. 
 

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

So to think that his floor is "top rushing attack" is a bit of an inflated projection. Kyler Murray is one of the most mobile QBs in the league, his offense isn't exactly a top rushing attack.

Murray has said himself he doesn’t want to run if he doesn’t have to, he has an RG3 type bias towards running. Put me on the side he’s most effective when willing to run. But even so, he impacts the Cardinals run game immensely overall and situationally. They’re not attempting to build a run first type offense, taking lumps while Murray develops as a passer. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Whereas Jackson does have a top rushing attack.

 

Where I agree with you is that his ceiling is quite high. We disagree on the floor as well as NFL readiness.

Jalen Hurts might be the worst QB in the NFL in terms of reading a field, but there he was in the playoffs as a second year starter. 

 

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

So the fact that if he busts as an actual NFL passer we can basically just use him as a RB means he has a high floor?

 

Whatever way you’d like to put it, QB/RB. 

 

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I know you have a thing for running QBs, but this is a bit far even for you.

 

I value the known commodity the elite running QB provides, but acknowledge their ceiling my actually be lower due to the learning and breaking out of bad habits needing to take place to become a great passer. Not sure I’ve seen an elite running QB develop into an elite passer— Randell Cunningham? 
 

 

6 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Also, by this rationale both Corral and Howell have high floors too since their college rushing stats this season were very similar to what Willis put up. If that's the case and they all have high floors why not take a guy who's also a more polished passer in Corral and Howell?

No, their running traits equate to Adam Humphries on the field, where as Malik Willis is a faster Deebo Samuel type. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Standig on what he heard again, people are over the place.  Some stuff I read for example said Ridder hurt himself others said helped himself.  On and on depending on the player.

 

It doesn't surprise me that Pickett's personality won people over -- IMHO he's easily the most charismatic dude in this mix of QBs. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

 

Jalen Hurts might be the worst QB in the NFL in terms of reading a field, but there he was in the playoffs as a second year starter. 

 

 

Jalen Hurts also played competitive high end college football at Alabama and Oklahoma. He is extremely seasoned.

 

Willis transferred from Auburn to Liberty.

 

Is that a kiss of death? No. But I don't think there's any real ground to compare them.

[Voice_of_Reason]

Comments on Sheehan's stance:

 

For those commenting on Sheehan: He said after the Chiefs vs. Bills game he was out on anything other than the highest upside QBs, and thought the entire league was going to move that way, after seeing what Mahomes and Allen did.  His point was you need one of THOSE guys to beat one of THOSE guys, so going for a guy with a lower ceiling was pointless.  Just keep swinging for the top-guys until you hit on one.

 

So that narrative apparently has followed through to today. (I don't listen to his radio show, I listen to his podcast, and I'm sure it will be a theme when I listen later.  My morning drive is dedicated to Galdi's podcast, and I can't do 2 Sheehan shows, that's too much Sheehan. I will listen to specific interview segments of his radio show, though.)

 

I think there is something to his theory, but I think there are nuances to it also.  I don't think you really want to swing on an entirely "boom or bust" prospect, but if the "boom" is (name your top favorite 5 QB), and the floor is "eh, Tannehill/Garoppolo/Cousins/Carr" then that's probably worth it.  If the floor is Jamarcus Russell/Ryan Leaf, then you stay the hell away.  

 

Galdi/Thor Nystrom Comments:

 

So I did listen to the Galdi podcast this morning.  He had Thor Nystrom, from NBC Sports Edge.  He waxed poetic about Willis, and specifically said that the day there was a ton of rain and weather, he really stood out as being able to play through it, when the other QBs had velocity and accuracy issues.  He also said that the big question coming in about Willis was the "on schedule" plays, could he process/read and throw in the timing of an NFL offense.  Thor said based on the senior bowl practices, the answer was unequivocally yes.  

 

Thor also had Willis as his #1 QB going in, so I think he was doing some pea****ing "look at me I'm so smart and was on this train 3 stations before Mel and Todd, so nanner nanner boo boo"  stuff going on.  So I'm going to take whatever he says with some degree of a grain of salt.

 

He said in his rankings, he would put Willis behind the 4 top guys from last years class (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Field) but ahead of Jones.  And then Pickett, Coral (who wasn't there) and the others would be after that.

 

Draft Positioning:

I've been saying for weeks if they want the QB of their choice, they're going to have to move up to 4 to get them, or else they are most likely getting their 3rd or 4th option.  

 

I DON'T think Jacksonville will trade out of #1 for somebody to come up and get one of the QBs.  The value of this group of QBs just isn't there to make that kind of a trade.  And they aren't picking a QB.

 

Then things get a bit interesting:

 

2. Detroit.  My gut is they roll with Goff another year, but they COULD pick a QB, or trade to somebody to pick a QB.  Though, if they really like Willis and think he needs a year to develop, they have Goff in-house to be the bridge, so they COULD do that.  It's unclear what they think of Goff going forward, though the GM was one of the guys on the team who selected Goff with the #1 overall pick, so ...

3. Houston.  My guess is they don't select a QB this year and they give Mills another year with a veteran.  If he stinks, then they'll have another shot next year with what looks to be a deeper class, and another top pick.  

4. Jets.  They won't pick a QB this year.  They could trade out of the pick.  This is the pick I would target getting to.  

5. NYG. They won't trade with us for a QB.

6. Carolina. If they don't get a big name QB, they almost certainly WILL pick a QB here. It's unclear who they would value most.  

7. NYG (Again).  They still won't trade with us for a QB.

8. Falcons.  I have a sneaky suspicion they are going to take a QB in this draft. And it might be at this spot.  They will then let that QB sit a year behind Ryan's last year in Atlanta.  It's easier to find the next guy when you have one more year of the current guy. This is also a trade down spot for a team behind us to jump into the top 10 to get their guy.  

9. Broncos (Or Green Bay).  IF Rodgers goes to the Broncos as most suspect, then GB will be on the clock, and they will not select a QB, as they are in this mess because they angered the Great Aaron Rodgers by drafting Love in the first place.  IF the Broncos are on the clock, they missed on Rodgers, so they WILL select a QB.  

10.  Jets.  Pick #2.  The scary thing here is the Jets don't need a QB, we pick next, and everybody knows we need a QB.  So somebody could jump us. And since the Jets have the 7th pick, they can already get one of the top 10 guys they are targeting and then happily trade back to get more assets.  Depending on what else happens, we might have to play defense and trade up a spot if our guy falls to 10 to get him, because a team like the Steelers or Tampa might want to move up in front of us.

 

Of the QB needy teams, the Saints, Steelers and Bucs all pick behind us.  There are a lot of "ifs" but I'm going to assume Rodgers, Wilson, Jimmy and Carr are starting SOMEWHERE.  either where they are or in a new place. So, if Wilson or Carr leave, and their replacement is not part of the trade, then the Seahawks and Raiders join the list of QB needy teams, but some other team (Panther, hopefully us, Bucs, Saints, Steelers) drops off the list.  

 

So I'm just going to say there will be 3 teams after us who will need a QB.  

 

Houston is the least known.  They could decide to go QB, or they could trade back, or they could just pick somebody else.  I think the Jets stay where they are and pick the best player on their board.  

 

If we want our top pick, we're going to have to go to either #2 or #4.  Though, if Carolina wanted the same guy, they could go up to #2 more easily than we can.  

 

The ideal situation for us (assuming we don't get Wilson/Rodgers/Watson/Carr) is Rodgers goes to Denver, one of those guys ends up in Carolina (Wilson went to NC State, and I think Carolina would take Watson), and Jimmy ended up at either the Bucs, Saints or Steelers. That means we would only have to worry about Houston at #2, or a trade up either the Seahawks, Saints or Bucs, whoever didn't get Jimmy.  But we have more ammo than any of them to move up.   

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

No, their running traits equate to Adam Humphries on the field, where as Malik Willis is a faster Deebo Samuel type. 

 

Sure, Willis is faster than them and has more wiggle but it's not like he runs a 4.3 and they run 4.9s or something. Corral especially has good wheels. They both had similar rushing production as Willis vs better competition.

 

So if they can also start immediately and use their legs to supplement their game then why not pick them when they're both more polished passers than Willis? Yes Willis also has a bigger arm, but Corral and Howell both have good arms as well...Corral having IMO the closest arm to Willis in the draft.

[KDawg]

For clarity, here are Jalen Hurts statistics in college:

 

 

And Willis' for comparison:

 

I was higher on Hurts than most. I thought a second rounder spent on him would have made sense.

 

Fun exercise: If Hurts was in this class would he be rated ahead of Malik Willis? I think he might be. Which doesn't say much about the other QBs in the class either, considering that Hurts was pretty fairly rated in his class.

 

Numbers never tell the whole story, but Hurts seemed to play with more confiudence than Willis.

 

But this is where the hard part of the conversation comes in: Which weighs more? Willis supporting cast not being anywhere NEAR as good as Hurts or the defenses Hurts had to go against being much closer to NFL level than Willis?

[Skinsinparadise]

50 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Ben Standig on with JP/BMitch now talking about that picture of Wilson and Allen, Sheehan's mention Wilson not apposed to it and Garafolo on Standig's podcast.  He reiterated unless Wilson forces his way out, he doesn't get it.

 

 

I was listening.  Standig was pessimistic as usual about the QB situation. .

 

If I had to summarize a theme behind Standig's appearances-podcasts, etc its all you fans hate the idea of Jimmy G, but you all should learn to embrace it, you'd be lucky to even get him because the pickings are going to be slim.  And if you want to bank on this QB class in this draft, sorry but it isn't that hot. 

 

As for Wilson he said it wouldn't make sense to Seattle to trade him especially considering Carroll's age.  Thinks there is a better shot Rodgers gets traded.  Assumes that even if Wilson and Rodgers hit the market neither team would want to trade to the NFC.  I get his point and it often plays out that way as for trades but not always. 

 

I do agree that for Wilson to get traded he'd have to request it.  Thus far he's given a mixed message on that front.

31 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Comments on Sheehan's stance:

 

For those commenting on Sheehan: He said after the Chiefs vs. Bills game he was out on anything other than the highest upside QBs, and thought the entire league was going to move that way, after seeing what Mahomes and Allen did.  His point was you need one of THOSE guys to beat one of THOSE guys, so going for a guy with a lower ceiling was pointless.  Just keep swinging for the top-guys until you hit on one.

 

So that narrative apparently has followed through to today. (I don't listen to his radio show, I listen to his podcast, and I'm sure it will be a theme when I listen later.  My morning drive is dedicated to Galdi's podcast, and I can't do 2 Sheehan shows, that's too much Sheehan. I will listen to specific interview segments of his radio show, though.)

 

I think there is something to his theory, but I think there are nuances to it also.  I don't think you really want to swing on an entirely "boom or bust" prospect, but if the "boom" is (name your top favorite 5 QB), and the floor is "eh, Tannehill/Garoppolo/Cousins/Carr" then that's probably worth it.  If the floor is Jamarcus Russell/Ryan Leaf, then you stay the hell away.  

 

 

 

I caught up with his show.  Yeah his point was more or less, he hasn't watched Willis much so he doesn't have a hard opinion on him.  But if you want to compete with the big boys you need a big boy QB, not just any Qb so if Willis is the highest upside QB, then that's the swing.

 

He doesn't dislike Jimmy G as a QB but he hates the idea of giving up a pick to get him -- his view is not enough upside.  

Edited February 7, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Comments on Sheehan's stance:

 

8. Falcons.  I have a sneaky suspicion they are going to take a QB in this draft. And it might be at this spot.  They will then let that QB sit a year behind Ryan's last year in Atlanta.  It's easier to find the next guy when you have one more year of the current guy. This is also a trade down spot for a team behind us to jump into the top 10 to get their guy.  

 

 

Based on a long article I read from an Atlanta beat writer, I'd be VERY surprised if they took a Qb in this draft.  Maybe in 2023 though. 

[Dan T.]

I'm curious about how much weight teams put on scouting players for one week at Senior Bowl practices and game.

 

Aren't they looking at these players throughout the course of their college careers?  Shouldn't that hold WAY more weight than what they do in a single week of practice and an all-star game with teammates they've never before played with?  Yet we hear all this talk about how this guy has moved up and that guy moved down - again based on one week of practice and one random all-star game. Or is all the press coverage and speculation mostly hype?

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I was listening.  Standig was pessimistic as usual about the QB situation. 

 

If I had to summarize a theme behind Standig's appearances-podcasts, etc its all you fans hate the idea of Jimmy G, but you all should learn to embrace it, you'd be lucky to even get him because the pickings are going to be slim.

 

As for Wilson he said it wouldn't make sense to Seattle to trade him especially considering Carroll's age.  Thinks there is a better shot Rodgers gets traded.  Assumes that even if Wilson and Rodgers hit the market neither team would want to trade to the NFC.  I get his point and it often plays out that way as for trades but not always. 

 

I do agree that for Wilson to get trade he'd have to request it.  Thus far he's given a mixed message on that front.

I'm not entirely sure why, but I think Wilson is just done with Seattle.  He said something about "evaluating his options."  You NEVER hear a QB under contract say something like that unless there's something going on.  I don't know what it is.  You'd think they could work it out, but it appears as though they haven't. 

 

I think he was really hoping Carroll would retire, and he could go to the brass, and at least make recommendations as to who he would like to work with, both at the HC and OC level.  That doesn't mean they HAVE to hire those folks, but if it were me, I would at least solicit input from my most important employee.  

 

But Carroll stuck around.  It could be Wilson thinks Carroll has lost his fastball (he is 70), and they're never going to get over the hump with him now.  I also think Wilson would NEVER say that publicly, or even have it leaked.  

 

Things just don't seem right.  Which doesn't mean anything.  Wilson would still have to ask out.  I kindof think he is going to.  I also think Rodgers/Adams to Denver is about as much of a bet as you can get.  They want him, they have the cap room and the draft capital to make it happen.  So I think it will happen.  

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Dan T. said:

I'm curious about how much weight teams put on scouting players for one week at Senior Bowl practices and game.

 

Aren't they looking at these players throughout the course of their college careers?  Shouldn't that hold WAY more weight than what they do in a single week of practice and an all-star game with teammates they've never before played with?  Yet we hear all this talk about how this guy has moved up and that guy moved down - again based on one week of practice and one random all-star game. Or is all the press coverage and speculation mostly hype?

It all weighs in. This is their first look against mostly NFL talent, but there are other things at play: first time together, week of practice, dumbed down concepts and playbooks. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Based on a long article I read from an Atlanta beat writer, I'd be VERY surprised if they took a Qb in this draft.  Maybe in 2023 though. 

Yeah, it's possible, but it's also lying season, so you never really know.

 

Also, they could absolutely be looking to trade back and pick up an additional pick in the 2023 draft so they have some ammo to move up to grab there guy next year. 

 

If we want "our guy" we have to get ahead of Carolina at 6, assuming they don't get a big-named guy.  

 

All of this noise about QBs not being worthy of a top 10 pick is fine.  But by the time the draft rolls around, at least 2, if not 3, are going to go in the top 10.  Because teams are not going to wait and risk having another team jump up and grab the one they like.  QBs are always over-drafted.  

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Yeah, it's possible, but it's also lying season, so you never really know.

 

Also, they could absolutely be looking to trade back and pick up an additional pick in the 2023 draft so they have some ammo to move up to grab there guy next year. 

 

If we want "our guy" we have to get ahead of Carolina at 6, assuming they don't get a big-named guy.  

 

All of this noise about QBs not being worthy of a top 10 pick is fine.  But by the time the draft rolls around, at least 2, if not 3, are going to go in the top 10.  Because teams are not going to wait and risk having another team jump up and grab the one they like.  QBs are always over-drafted.  

 

Teams typcially don't leak publicly if they plan to take a Qb in the first round when they have a starter veteran already in place, i agree.  But this was based on what the beat guy heard from at least in his mind reliable sources he trusted which was they didn't feel the need to draft the heir apparent yet coupled with even if they were ready to draft the successor, they don't love this QB class.

13 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I'm not entirely sure why, but I think Wilson is just done with Seattle.  He said something about "evaluating his options."  You NEVER hear a QB under contract say something like that unless there's something going on.  I don't know what it is.  You'd think they could work it out, but it appears as though they haven't. 

 

I think he was really hoping Carroll would retire, and he could go to the brass, and at least make recommendations as to who he would like to work with, both at the HC and OC level.  That doesn't mean they HAVE to hire those folks, but if it were me, I would at least solicit input from my most important employee.  

 

But Carroll stuck around.  It could be Wilson thinks Carroll has lost his fastball (he is 70), and they're never going to get over the hump with him now.  I also think Wilson would NEVER say that publicly, or even have it leaked.  

 

Things just don't seem right.  Which doesn't mean anything.  Wilson would still have to ask out.  I kindof think he is going to.  I also think Rodgers/Adams to Denver is about as much of a bet as you can get.  They want him, they have the cap room and the draft capital to make it happen.  So I think it will happen.  

 

From all what I digested I get the impression that Wilson needs to have the balls to request a trade for it to happen.  He's apparently very image conscious and doesn't want to leave Seattle with their fans seeing him as the bad guy.  But everything being equal he'd like to leave.  So he needs to decide perhaps is he willing to take a PR hit with his legacy in Seattle. 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

I'm curious about how much weight teams put on scouting players for one week at Senior Bowl practices and game.

 

Aren't they looking at these players throughout the course of their college careers?  Shouldn't that hold WAY more weight than what they do in a single week of practice and an all-star game with teammates they've never before played with?  Yet we hear all this talk about how this guy has moved up and that guy moved down - again based on one week of practice and one random all-star game. Or is all the press coverage and speculation mostly hype?

The big thing is they are being coached on and practicing NFL concepts.  And everybody is coached and practicing the same NFL concepts. By NFL coaches.  So it's a level playing field.  You're not comparing a guy who runs an air-raid college offense against a guy from 'Bama who runs a much more traditional offense.  

 

Also, they are playing against legitimate NFL-caliber competition.  Every power conference College team not named Alabama and Ohio State probably has 60% of their roster that couldn't make an NFL practice squad.  And that might be generous.  So every week, maybe only 2-3 players on each side of the ball, and probably less (maybe much less) are talented enough to be in the NFL.   

 

But at the senior bowl, almost everybody who gets an invite at least has a chance to be drafted.  Malik Willis, for example, playing at Liberty, faced extremely limited NFL talent.  Now he gets to practice and play against players at a higher level to see how he compares.  

 

It's a whole lot more valuable (in my opinion) than the combine, which is (as somebody coined it) the underwear Olympics.  The one thing the Combine is good for is weeding out the people who just physically can't do it.  For example, I was watching QBs back in the early 10's, and Kellen Moore was taking part in drills, and you could just see he didn't have an NFL arm when compared to all the other QBs in his group.  Same thing with speed and size for other position groups. The medicals and interviews are the most important part of the Combine.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Teams typcially don't leak publicly if they plan to take a Qb in the first round when they have a starter veteran already in place, i agree.  But this was based on what the beat guy heard from at least in his mind reliable sources he trusted which was they didn't feel the need to draft the heir apparent yet coupled with even if they were ready to draft the successor, they don't love this QB class.

 

(j/k) I think it's probably true.  However, the beat guy could be their version of Chris Russell, who will literally report anything he is told and then look like a dumbass for years about it.  (And this is me giving you a hard time over Russell because it's fun. You don't have to reply with a defense of Russell. It's just  joke. )

 

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

From all what I digested I get the impression that Wilson needs to have the balls to request a trade for it to happen.  He's apparently very image conscious and doesn't want to leave Seattle with their fans seeing him as the bad guy.  But everything being equal he'd like to leave.  So he needs to decide perhaps is he willing to take a PR hit with his legacy in Seattle. 

Yeah, I get it.  And maybe he doesn't get up the nerve to do it.  But I am pretty sure our crack marketing team could help him with that messaging if he wanted it.  (That's also sarcasm, for the 1 poster who still can't pick up sarcasm after all of these years. (not you.) ) 

[Conn]

@Going Commando I’m gonna marinate in that and think about it, I appreciate your thorough response. 
 

One thing I just want to pick out and correct is the comment about Breakout Age—it’s not about how long they’ll be able to play in the NFL so that whole part of your post isn’t really what I was worried about. An early breakout age is preferred across the board because more often than not the best players are the best while they’re younger—a 19 year old that can beat 22 year olds already usually turns out to be a better pro than a guy who doesn’t start beating on the competition until he’s the 22 year old. If that makes sense. The analytics are pretty clear on this for WRs and RBs, which makes sense because those are positions that really rely on physicality—both raw athleticism and technique. So the earlier you break out and show you have those traits and skills against older and more developed players, the better you generally are.

 

The only reason this is in question at QB is because it’s such a mental position and like you said, some guys just have something click in their brains and become the Chosen One. But the massive, massive jump in competence and production for Pickett his final season as a fully grown man is just a red flag that needs context. Maybe the flashes you say he showed last year IS that context, that’s what I need to figure out for myself in terms of how I feel about him.
 

I just can’t remember a lot of examples in the recent past of 4-year college QBs who had such an explosive final season come out of nowhere after so much time on the field. Your assertion that whether that learning and growing that leads to the “click” in their brain happens on the field as a starter for those years (Pickett) or happens on the bench transferring from school to school because it hasn’t happened yet (Burrow) is an interesting idea that I need to noodle on. 

[Going Commando]

15 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

I'm curious about how much weight teams put on scouting players for one week at Senior Bowl practices and game.

 

Aren't they looking at these players throughout the course of their college careers?  Shouldn't that hold WAY more weight than what they do in a single week of practice and an all-star game with teammates they've never before played with?  Yet we hear all this talk about how this guy has moved up and that guy moved down - again based on one week of practice and one random all-star game. Or is all the press coverage and speculation mostly hype?

 

I think the post-season pre-draft process is mostly hype, but hype can still infect decision-making for team builders.  The media sells these stories as a kind of hybrid stock market/horse race story, and the NFL welcomes the coverage and interest that these events generate.  The most useful thing about these invents for coaches and scouts is getting to interact with the players in one place, plus the official measurements they take can be nice data points.

 

Teams get into trouble when they overrate the value of the info things like the SB gives you.  Quin Meinerz was the star of last year's Senior Bowl week and probably got overdrafted as a result of his performance there in retrospect.  He came from a nothing program where no one really knew him, but his story was so appealing and his performances in the practice were so surprising that he made a really positive impression on the people who followed that closely and he ended up going in the 3rd round.  On the opposite end of the spectrum, Trey Smith was an OL from Tennessee who had some pretty freaking dominant film at a variety of positions.  He had a pretty bad week of practice at the SB, and that plus a widely-reported blood clotting issue he'd had earlier in his college career caused him to drop to the end of the sixth round when he should have gone far earlier. 

 

So yeah, these post-season events shouldn't be taken that seriously, but they do produce a lot of noisy info and sometimes they are.

[Skinsinparadise]

Where Howell impressed me was running speed, as i mentioned on the draft thread, was really unsure about him before the Senior Bowl on that front but he looked quicker than I expected.  

 

 

 

 

[Burgold]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Where Howell impressed me was running speed, as i mentioned on the draft thread, was really unsure about him before the Senior Bowl on that front but he looked quicker than I expected.  

 

 

 

 

The guy's name is Zappe. There's no way he runs that slowly. If he did his name would be Fizzle.

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

So the fact that if he busts as an actual NFL passer we can basically just use him as a RB means he has a high floor?

 

I know you have a thing for running QBs, but this is a bit far even for you.

 

Also, by this rationale both Corral and Howell have high floors too since their college rushing stats this season were very similar to what Willis put up (and against better competition). If that's the case and they all have high floors why not take a guy who's also a more polished passer in Corral and Howell?

None of the QBs in this draft have a high floor. Some have almost no floor and that's without a high ceiling. 

[MartinC]

I am now squarely in the sign a vet guy like Winston/Mariota/Trubisky to a prove it type deal. Give them next year to see if you can catch lightening in a bottle with Heinicke as the backup.

 

This draft I try to trade back (which might be easier said than done) to pick up extra picks next year to give us ammunition to bet the farm on trading up to get a QB next season. If I cant trade back I take a BPA approach and continue to build the roster. There are some good receivers, its a deep group on the O'line and it's a good corner class. Take value let's not reach for a QB in a weak class.

 

I just don't think this is the year to take a QB high - it feels like if we did we are just going to waste a couple more years finding out we swung and missed or getting an average starter at best.

[88Comrade2000]

14 hours ago, slinky said:

I've not read a lot of the pages and I know very little about this crop of college QBs but I'm certain they are going with Corral so they can market him as Commander Corral and that he can "corral the troops". Might be the main reason they draft him. 

If Dan was drafting, I could see this.

[Redskins 2021]

It looks like Seattle is going to make one last run with Wilson and Carroll.

Looking over on the Denver message board that are not as sure as I was they will be getting Rodgers.

[CobraCommander]

Just now, Redskins 2021 said:

It looks like Seattle is going to make one last run with Wilson and Carroll.

Looking over on the Denver message board that are not as sure as I was they will be getting Rodgers.

It's just so rare a Franchise QB gets moved unless it's an end of career FA thing like Brady or Montana at the end of his career. Wilson and Rodgers still have juice. 

[KDawg]

16 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I am now squarely in the sign a vet guy like Winston/Mariota/Trubisky to a prove it type deal. Give them next year to see if you can catch lightening in a bottle with Heinicke as the backup.

 

This draft I try to trade back (which might be easier said than done) to pick up extra picks next year to give us ammunition to bet the farm on trading up to get a QB next season. If I cant trade back I take a BPA approach and continue to build the roster. There are some good receivers, its a deep group on the O'line and it's a good corner class. Take value let's not reach for a QB in a weak class.

 

I just don't think this is the year to take a QB high - it feels like if we did we are just going to waste a couple more years finding out we swung and missed or getting an average starter at best.

 

I very much dislike this option.

 

But I think this is the route we're going to go when we strike out on the big names.

 

I could see them taking a Zappe or a Ridder late.

 

I don't like it at all and it's going to bother the **** out of me. But I think you're right that this is how its going to go.