The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[redskinss]

6 hours ago, skinsarethebest said:

If they were decided on Maye, I think they would have made it clear by now.  The reason: among casual fans, and yes, the majority of the fanbase, though of course not at Extremeskins, picking Maye would be viewed as a disappointment.  I believe this new FO and ownership group is very savvy about PR and optics.  If Maye really was the pick, they would want to “get in front of it” as soon as possible and start getting their fans, especially their casual fans, to be acclimated to and “ok” with the choice sooner rather than later.  

 

Where do you get the impression that extremeskins is an outlier and the majority of the fanbase wants daniels?

Even if that were true which I have no reason to believe it is your premise about the front office wanting to get ahead of a p.r. problem is absurd, as a matter of fact the only evidence we have of this front office suggests the opposite. 

The overwhelming favorite for head coach was Ben johnson and Dan quinn was undoubtedly an initial letdown and they leaked absolutely nothing.

 

The way people are convincing themselves that whoever they want is going to be the pick is getting more and more laughable and this is one of the funniest ones I've seen yet.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

The whole reason to draft Jayden over Maye is to try and reproduce his offense from last season.  You want the guy who can gash teams for playing man coverage against him.  But in order to do that, you need speed and elite outside weapons.  You need guys who torch zone and force super soft man coverage carried deep.  You want weapons that will force a DB to cover with his back turned to the LoS for 8 seconds on the play clock.  You want to run vertical offense and you do not want your flats to constantly be occupied because you want them cleared out for Jayden to run through.  Guys like Corley are not a good fit with a Jayden Daniels offense.

 

You also definitely need to load up your pass pro in order for him to even opt to throw shallow crossers.  He waits forever to pull the trigger on these things.

 

This is why I don't think people are acknowledging just how limited a Jayden Daniels offense really is.  It's high maintenance, there are big parts of the field you're barely going to use in the passing game, and it's going to get easy to defend come playoff time.

 

You want to play to your QB's strengths so adapting his offense to model an offense where he killed, sure.  But its not like Daniels can't do somethings better than Maye.  And vice versa.  So I was highlighting those as for the difference in building an offense.  Maye needs more weapons too.  the plot line hasn't been Maye killed it last year inspite of his weapons.  It's been the justification for why he didn't kill it. 

 

He needs guys who can seperate especially on the 2nd level so Maye doesn't make boneheaded throws into coverage or takes a sack.  I've used that to defend him.  It wasn't about lighting it up with scrubs.  It was that he was better than some think when you factor his supporting cast and some of his bad habits are a function of that.  So if we draft Maye, my idea is not to double down on last years North Carolina offense. We bemoan Daniels pressure-sack ratio even though Maye's number last year was almost identical.  Maye needs help, too.

 

I think my main difference with you about Daniels is vision.  You make the case it isn't good and his bad vision extends to even his running.  To me its the reverse.  I explained the running in a different post.  And as to throwing, no doubt he doesn't throw with anticipation, I've been arguably leading that argument here for months as to a prime reason as to why Maye > Daniels.  

 

But Daniels passes two tests with me based on my watching.  I've been better at calling QBs who can't play than can play.  but using the lense of my critque of Haskins, Rosen, Darnold, Trubsky.  The difference to me is Daniels doesn't make too many dumb throws.  And to me dumb throws are throws where they look dumb but it clear its just because they don't see the field, its not because they are dumb. 

 

And if you watch enough, at least i think you can sense that pattern for better or worse for a QB.  And to my eyes that's more meaningful than keying purely on QB's who hesitate.  To me the hesitation is more about mindset and style and if you want more aggression you have to shift the players mindset.  Alex Smith is known for example to wait for dudes to get open and made a decent living in the NFL. 

 

I actually dissected Maye on this front and defended him considering he's the one not so much Daniels who gets hit for decision making.   The other item for me is accuracy on all levels.  Daniels doesn't throw much to the middle or off platform but when he does, he's not bad at it.  If he recall is off platform accuracy-completion numbers are better than Maye's but he doesn't do it nearly enough.  Maye again outside this thread is the one who is challenged much more for accuracy.  And i again defended Maye because I think his accuracy is very good aside from the flat and hope and expect they can fix that.  

 

For me Daniels comes off like a dude who can see the field.  But doesn't have the guts to throw with anticipation or has the confidence to make those throws.  Jay Gruden says their offense doesn't call for it.  Maybe.  But if so is it a chicken-egg argument as for whether the offense is set up that way?  I don't know. 

 

My point is I buy the narrative that a workaholic QB, can continue to improve versus can improve no more.  The idea that his flaws are permanent but that's not the case for name that other QB, etc.  We can discount the German 3-D technology as BS, and ex-QBs who like his machanics and believe he can continue improve as BS, on and on.  But that's just subjective guessing on our end, not fact.

 

Here's Brugler by the way who like me prefers Maye but doesn't see Daniels as a bad alternative, also praising his vision.  So its not just me. 

 

Edited April 13 by Skinsinparadise

[wit33]

I’m currently delving into the concept of anticipatory throws in football, exploring their frequency and importance in games. I’m at the early stages of self-learning and would appreciate if anyone could share examples of NFL quarterbacks consistently making anticipatory throws during games.

 

Starting with an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, I watched a 3-minute video showcasing 18 completions he made in an AFC Championship game, which many regard as a flawless first half. However, I struggled to identify a throw that exemplified anticipatory timing, although I acknowledge I may be mistaken in my understanding.

 

Hers the three minute clip for those willing to indulge:

 

https://www.chiefs.com/video/every-completion-from-patrick-mahomes-near-perfect-first-half-chiefs-vs-bengals

 

 

 

I admit my bias and recognize that there may be conflicting definitions of what constitutes an anticipatory throw among those here, but I'm open to learning and being corrected.

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I’m currently delving into the concept of anticipatory throws in football, exploring their frequency and importance in games. I’m at the early stages of self-learning and would appreciate if anyone could share examples of NFL quarterbacks consistently making anticipatory throws during games.

 

Starting with an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, I watched a 3-minute video showcasing 18 completions he made in an AFC Championship game, which many regard as a flawless first half. However, I struggled to identify a throw that exemplified anticipatory timing, although I acknowledge I may be mistaken in my understanding.

 

Hers the three minute clip for those willing to indulge:

 

https://www.chiefs.com/video/every-completion-from-patrick-mahomes-near-perfect-first-half-chiefs-vs-bengals

 

 

 

I admit my bias and recognize that there may be conflicting definitions of what constitutes an anticipatory throw among those here, but I'm open to learning and being corrected.

 

Your buddy Kirk is the master at it.   You are throwing to a spot before the receiver gets open.  You see it more on the 2nd level.   The most obvious are often shallow crossers.    

 

I like Maye over Daniels for this reason and a few others too but I think for Daniels it isn't not a deal breaker for 3 reasons.

 

A. Clean mechanics and accuracy.  i think he can do it if he works at it. Or at a minimum he has a fighting chance to do it.

 

B.  It's not like every QB excels at it.  One of your favs Alex Smith is hit some that his ceiling is partly because of how conservative he is and throws much more to guys who are open versus with anticipation

 

C. Daniels can make a living from first level-3rd level throws ala Russell Wilson.  On the first level you don't have to throw with anticipation generally with some exceptions like wheel routes, etc.  And he good at them.  And on the third level he is mostly throwing with anticipation in a way considering you typically have no choice but to throw it to spot the receiver is running towards.

 

Edited April 13 by Skinsinparadise

[redskinss]

I watched all throws and runs of jj mcarthy from 2023 last night and came away unimpressed. 

He certainly does some things well but that offensive design protected him so much that it's really hard to tell how he'll be if he doesn't end up in a 49ers type offense.

 

There were so many quick passes and clean pockets that he rarely faced any Significant pressure, he executed the offense brilliantly so I don't want to take that away from him as a negative but the Harbaugh factor scares me, he strikes me as the type of quarterback who needs to be in the perfect system like a brock purdy.

 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

9 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I’m currently delving into the concept of anticipatory throws in football, exploring their frequency and importance in games. I’m at the early stages of self-learning and would appreciate if anyone could share examples of NFL quarterbacks consistently making anticipatory throws during games.

Go to YouTube and search Purdy anticipation throw. This one was my favorite example.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

You see it more on the 2nd level.   The most obvious are often shallow crossers. 

Also on outs.  A lot of time if the ball isn’t released before the receiver makes a break, they run out of room to the sideline before the ball gets there

 

Basically the ball is driven to the sideline when the player is at the top of the route and the defender doesn’t know if the receiver is cutting inside or outside.  
 

When it’s executed properly, there’s almost no defense for it.  
 

It’s also a pretty simple read for both WR and QB.  As long as the defender is not in trail position, the receiver can cut off the path to the ball and it should be an easy completion.

 

If the defender is in trail position, the route is dead, and the receiver either has the option to break the route off, run the defender out of the play, or cut inside depending on other coverage. And the QB should know immediately the route is dead and get off of it immediately anyway. 

 

[Jumbo]

...can't say it often enough....a lot of people just lose their minds in QB threads....and never moreso than in the draft threads where college fans mix in all that special sauce with all the regular ingredients and every pundit in existence can't make up enough takes fast enough ...🤡😄

 

[DogofWar1]

1 minute ago, Jumbo said:

...can't say it often enough....a lot of people just lose their minds in QB threads....and never moreso than in the draft threads where college fans mix in all that special sauce with all the regular ingredients....🤡😄

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, BMagic said:

I've said the same. Daniels can throw the slot fade all day long. They'd have to build an infrastructure like the Bengals and Eagles for it to work. Brown/Smith and Chase/Higgins type big bodies who can destroy man coverage. To be fair, both of those teams have been in recent SuperBowls even though they both came a tad short of winning it.

 

Kingsbury doesn't run an anticipatory passing system and his offenses always tailed off after blazing starts. I also wouldn't draft to fit a coordinator's scheme. Different story if it's a head coach who'd be around for the long haul.

 

You don't have to be big though to beat man coverage.  If your releases are good especially against press, can shake a defender and run crisp routes, that's the ticket.  It doesn't hurt to be big and physical and fast but that to me applies to man or zone.   The best WR against man according to PFF is St. Brown, he's not a big dude.  If you look at PFF's scores of the current potential draftees, the scores for those WRs against man are of all different sizes and the top 3 guys are 6 foot or smaller.

 

I don't argue against Daniels could use a big physical receiver, I've being saying it on and off for weeks -- and I've kept mentioning Legette on that front.  Polk although not that big is physical, IMO tracks the ball well in the corner of the end zone is likely a good fit for Daniels' fades. Legette isn't that big either height wise but is strong and physical.

 

But my point is I don't think its code red if they draft Daniels as to adding weapons and Maye we are going to be fine or heck we don't have to do nearly as much.  To me its different strengths-different flavors -- different type of weapons for both.

Edited April 13 by Skinsinparadise

[WashingtonRedWolves]

52 minutes ago, BMagic said:

It can work great when the QB is in their Rookie deal. When it comes time to pay them, they end up losing a Tyreek Hill or a Tee Higgins and other valuable pieces. Then, more of the load is on that QB's plate. Mahomes could handle it since he still had Kelce. I'm interested to see how Josh Allen does without Diggs and at least Burrow will still have Chase. 

Look at philly though, hurts get paid and they still keep all their stars. Teams just backload these contracts so they only have to pay them a non-exorbitant amount per year

[skinsarethebest]

50 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

Where do you get the impression that extremeskins is an outlier and the majority of the fanbase wants daniels?

Even if that were true which I have no reason to believe it is your premise about the front office wanting to get ahead of a p.r. problem is absurd, as a matter of fact the only evidence we have of this front office suggests the opposite. 

The overwhelming favorite for head coach was Ben johnson and Dan quinn was undoubtedly an initial letdown and they leaked absolutely nothing.

 

The way people are convincing themselves that whoever they want is going to be the pick is getting more and more laughable and this is one of the funniest ones I've seen yet.

 

 

 

If you think the majority of the fanbase prefers Maye, you’re delusional.  
 

The Quinn situation was totally different - they have complete control over who they pick at #2 whereas their choice of coach was not something entirely up to them, as Ben Johnson and other candidates took themselves out of the running or were hired by other teams.  

Edited April 13 by skinsarethebest

[DogofWar1]

Most of the casual fanbase doesn't really know what's going on, and I suspect there may be a bit of a feedback loop.

 

Schefter who's a big name and someone the casual fan will probably hear from (compared to someone a little more niche) says its Daniels.

 

People go watch Daniels videos to get to know him.  And he DOES have pretty video.

 

So now that person's on board with Daniels and will say go Daniels.

 

Is that wrong?  Nah, but I suspect that's a lot of what's going on.

 

 

If Schefter was saying Maye it'd probably be the exact opposite.

[wit33]

 

 

12 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Go to YouTube and search Purdy anticipation throw. This one was my favorite example.

 

 

 

Thank you for sharing your perspective.

 

In your opinion, how frequently did Purdy execute completions like these per game? I'm not trying to come off as condescending, but I do acknowledge having some skepticism at this point. Just want to clarify my stance. 
 

Any chance you took a look at the Mahomes video I sent, were there any anticipatory throws? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MartinC]

3 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

Ultimately Daniels is someone I'd be perfectly happy to pick...at 3.

 

But at 2 I'm concerned.

 

This makes no sense to me. I lean toward Maye but think Daniel’s is also a very strong option. 
 

There are others who don’t rate Daniel’s highly and I can totally respect that opinion. I assume those posters would not want us to pick Daniel's if we were picking 3rd overall. But if you think he’s worth the third overall pick being concerned if we took him one pick earlier does not seem very logical to me.

[Skinsinparadise]

I am just going through the QB numbers using PFF's new draft guide where the chart accuracy-to routes along with frequency.

 

So of course I am going through that bum, Jayden Daniels numbers.    i like Maye better but he's already has raging fans here so no need to add to that pile.  Am trying to reassure those not to drive off a cliff if they take Daniels.  It's clear its not working.  But heck its the off season so its a fun way to killa. few hours and I always learn some myself when I engage in a debate like this.  

 

It's really interesting to me to see how Nabers and Thomas had different niches as did Daniels throwing to them.  And I could do apples to apples comparisons as I sorted through the WRs.

 

In short, some of the WRs I thought would work well with Daniels, i nailed it in the context of matching Wrs who excel at certain routes to his strengths.  So maybe I could be a GM too .  But there was one receiver who really stood out on that front, a dude i vacillate on the draft thread.    But I'll post the numbers here soon am just organizing them.

 

I'll say this I can see why all the anayltics types don't rally behind Maye over Daniels.  Some do.  Some don't.  It could be that wow are Daniels numbers on go-post routes wicked.  Especially when you look it at compared to other WRs-QBs.  Absolutely wicked.  I am double down on a deep threat WR for him after going through those numbers just now.

Edited April 13 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

16 hours ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

If they draft Lamar Lite and he busts I'd agree. Don't really see much upside of a undersized overage QB that will not get a pass off 75% of the time when pressured. And if he's injured I don't want to hear what he might have been if only he never got injured.

And ftr I already listed the QB's drafted by the various teams he worked at the past 20 years. It's a whose who of busts, and floors reached other than, admittedly a beautiful hit with Purdy two years ago. Every guy they took in NE other than Cassell sucked. Brock Lobster and Tebow in Denver sucked, the big move in SF was Lance, a similar dual threat guy but w/a vastly inferior CV to Daniels who could not stay healthy and didn't look accurate when he was (though in fairness, right now I view him as an injury bust, I think he could be a Fields level player if he could ever get healthy), but they also drafted Driskel, a guy I loved as a day 3 guy eight years ago, and god awful CJ Beathard after that. 

 

I'm not ----ing on Peters here either, it's just to underline that whatever Peters does well, and he seems to do a ton well, identifying and drafting QB's that hit is not one of those things. Whatever org he's been on, the QB's drafted all busted, or disappointed save for Cassel who was largely a "QB you want to replace" level type, and Purdy who they clearly hit a home run on. 

 

How much role he had on various picks is open to question, it should be obvious he was a small voice in the room in the aughts and probably early on with Denver when they were drafting busts too, but as per usual, when you look at QB's, I don't see much evidence of magic fairy dust, seems like 1 hit for the career, and 1 league average and worse talent from when he was much lower on the totem pole. Like everyone else, its impossible to nail this thing. Nobody is good at this. You basically get hits because your picking early and/or your lucky, that is it. 

[DogofWar1]

5 minutes ago, MartinC said:

This makes no sense to me. I lean toward Maye but think Daniel’s is also a very strong option. 
 

There are others who don’t rate Daniel’s highly and I can totally respect that opinion. I assume those posters would not want us to pick Daniel's if we were picking 3rd overall. But if you think he’s worth the third overall pick being concerned if we took him one pick earlier does not seem very logical to me.

 

Well it's because of who's available at 2.

 

If Drake Maye didn't exist I'm good with him at 2.  If Caleb also doesn't exist then I'd be fine with him at 1 if we were suddenly picking there.

 

That's what I was getting at, it's not about the draft position, he's a bona fide top 10 guy, but about who will be available at 2.

 

Daniels, imo, has a number of yellow flags (size, P2S, drops eyes and runs vs extending plays, arm strength not quite top top tier, throwing over the middle and with anticipation, breakout age).  I won't call them red flags, but they're definitely not green.

 

I can absolutely talk myself into ignoring or looking on the optimistic side of those yellow flags if need be.

 

But also, why?

 

Now, sure this is because I tend to believe Maye's yellow flags are more fixable/less baked into the crust than Daniels' yellow flags.

 

But that's why, if we were picking 3rd and Pats were taking Maye then Daniels I feel good about.  But I feel better about Maye than about Daniels so there will be some...mild concern...if it's him over Maye.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

Thank you for sharing your perspective.

 

In your opinion, how frequently did Purdy execute completions like these per game? I'm not trying to come off as condescending, but I do acknowledge having some skepticism at this point. Just want to clarify my stance. 
 

Any chance you took a look at the Mahomes video I sent, were there any anticipatory throws? 

I can’t say I watch film like that so not sure but that example is a hell of a throw so I doubt he routinely executes passes like that one specifically. Throwing with anticipation is a standard element of the drop back passing game though. Here’s a very basic explanation that was made for kids in flag football, but it’s a pretty good visual for understanding the idea.

basically, the greatest amount of separation usually happens when the receiver makes his break. You want to design a play so that a quarterback is hitting the top of his drop as his first read is making the break and the quarterback is starting his throw, but he’s not sure if he’s going to throw it yet. he doesn’t look to see if the receiver is open and then start his throw… He starts his throw and then decides if the receiver will be open. The closest analogy I can come up with is a batter in baseball who has to start his swing every pitch, but he doesn’t know if it’s going to be a ball or a strike yet and has to make that determination after he’s already started the process. if it’s not open, he will hitch to his next read who hopefully is making his break at the same time and the quarterback would then start his throw again.

Edited April 13 by Sacks 'n' Stuff

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, redskinss said:

 

Where do you get the impression that extremeskins is an outlier and the majority of the fanbase wants daniels?

Even if that were true which I have no reason to believe it is your premise about the front office wanting to get ahead of a p.r. problem is absurd, as a matter of fact the only evidence we have of this front office suggests the opposite. 

The overwhelming favorite for head coach was Ben johnson and Dan quinn was undoubtedly an initial letdown and they leaked absolutely nothing.

 

The way people are convincing themselves that whoever they want is going to be the pick is getting more and more laughable and this is one of the funniest ones I've seen yet.

 

 

 

It's not directed to me. 

 

But to chime in the only thing I saw was a twitter poll from Standig on this which I posted here.    Daniels had more votes by a good margin.

 

I don't think this thread is an outlier as to wanting Maye over Daniels.  As to fans maybe more want Daniels but wanting Maye isn't an off beat take.  There are plenty out there who want Maye,

 

The off beat take to me is its Maye by a country mile and Daniels would be a disaster.  We had some pro-Daniels people post a lot especially a month ago where it felt extreme -- every pro Daniels take was posted here, any anti-Maye take was posted here.  I think its flung almost to the opposite side of the spectrum -- not as to twitter posts but as to the feeling that one answer is awesome and the other is an abject disaster. 

 

If you go by leaks from the media as to what scouts-coaches think -- at best for the Maye folks (me included) its a tough call.  At best.  At worse they seem to think Daniels is the better bet.  So the idea that its Maye AND Daniels is a country mile worse -- I do think is an outlier position for this thread.  It's definitiely not the average take outside of here that i noticed.  Now it doesn't mean the outlier take ends up wrong.  Who knows?

 

I think the Ben Johnson-Dan Quinn stuff makes me feel a bit bad karma wise for people on this thread.    Keim mentioned Quinn was a strong possibility.  Most discounted that.   When it got closer and it looked like a bigger possibility, some got a bit angry about it and wanted anyone but Quinn.  Then it happened, some anger and now that's gone away.  Is this the rodeo #2 of it?

 

I agree with you that we don't know who they take.  My only hard core take on it is I disagree with those who are already resigned its Daniels.  To me it feels still 50-50.  But I have heard enough that I get the impression that this FO very unlikely fits the attitudes of many on the thread that its a slam dunk decision and Daniels deserves no strong consideration.  But who knows, will see.

Edited April 13 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

17 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

If it's anyone and he busts, they need to go.  The next prospect needs a clean slate.  There also needs to be accountability for drastic failure, and there is no way I could trust an FO to get QB right the second time after screwing up such a golden opportunity.  I don't care what the rest of the roster looks like, if you can't get QB right, then you can't build a contender.

My limbic brain agrees with you, also mostly because this decision should be obvious, simply based on "risk" versus "floor" and "ceiling" and profile, it is obvious to me anyway, but otoh, nobody is good at this, and there is no magic sauce to being good, there are just some decent directions on what you can do to mitigate the risk of drafting a bust (avoid overage prospects who blew up very late, avoid guys w/a bad frame or size, avoid guys with tiny hands (a knock on Maye), avoid guys who dont throw with anticipation, and go through their progressions, avoid guys who aren't first in last out, avoid guys who have one of the worst P2S ratios ever since its been recorded etc), but actually hitting on QB? There is no magic GM that is actually going to be good at that, the best we might do is draft someone smart enough to avoid obvious pitfalls, which it sounds like Peters is not. The problem I see, is we get rid of Peters out of pique over a stupid decision, and we get a guy whose equally ---- at QB eval and also far worse at everything else compared to Peters. That is the most likely scenario if we follow your plan. 

 

I'm pissed too, I cant for the life of me believe why they'd be this <expletive> stupid, but it doesn't change the fact that its highly likely if we do ---- can him if Daniels hits his floor, we are going to be replacing Peters with an inferior GM 19 times out of 20, more than likely and just as bad, we cannot and will not find a guy who is better at making this precise decision, they all suck at this. Just some are lucky and some aren't. 

[Going Commando]

18 minutes ago, MartinC said:

This makes no sense to me. I lean toward Maye but think Daniel’s is also a very strong option. 
 

There are others who don’t rate Daniel’s highly and I can totally respect that opinion. I assume those posters would not want us to pick Daniel's if we were picking 3rd overall. But if you think he’s worth the third overall pick being concerned if we took him one pick earlier does not seem very logical to me.

 

It's a concern when it means picking him over a way better prospect in Maye.

 

At three, with Maye off the board, I'd say **** it and go with an option I had far less confidence in.  Our options would be much more limited, and you've got to have a QB.  Gotta pick somebody.  But why on Earth would I settle for that bet when the kid who looks exactly like almost all of the other best QBs in the league is sitting there at my pick?

2 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I'm pissed too, I cant for the life of me believe why they'd be this <expletive> stupid, but it doesn't change the fact that its highly likely if we do ---- can him if Daniels hits his floor, we are going to be replacing Peters with an inferior GM 19 times out of 20, more than likely and just as bad, we cannot and will not find a guy who is better at making this precise decision, they all suck at this. Just some are lucky and some aren't. 

 

Why are we assuming Peters is a good GM?  If anything, ****ing the dog on QB in this class would be proof that he's not a good GM.

[MartinC]

4 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

Well it's because of who's available at 2.

 

If Drake Maye didn't exist I'm good with him at 2.  If Caleb also doesn't exist then I'd be fine with him at 1 if we were suddenly picking there.

 

That's what I was getting at, it's not about the draft position, he's a bona fide top 10 guy, but about who will be available at 2.

 

Daniels, imo, has a number of yellow flags (size, P2S, drops eyes and runs vs extending plays, arm strength not quite top top tier, throwing over the middle and with anticipation, breakout age).  I won't call them red flags, but they're definitely not green.

 

I can absolutely talk myself into ignoring or looking on the optimistic side of those yellow flags if need be.

 

But also, why?

 

Now, sure this is because I tend to believe Maye's yellow flags are more fixable/less baked into the crust than Daniels' yellow flags.

 

But that's why, if we were picking 3rd and Pats were taking Maye then Daniels I feel good about.  But I feel better about Maye than about Daniels so there will be some...mild concern...if it's him over Maye.

I broadly agree with you on the reasons for Maye over Daniels - that’s why I lean towards him. But I still think if you can feel good about a player at 3 you can feel good about him at 2. 
 

Let’s be honest. There are some very bright people in this thread who spend a lot of time watching prospects. I respect their opinions. But none of them/us are qualified to really grade QB prospects, or have the access needed to meet and work out the players in person even if they were. Even the very best evaluators out there are basically betting on black against red making this pick.

I just think we are fortunate to have three blue chip QB prospects in a draft we pick 2nd overall and have a huge need at the position. We just have to trust the people paid to make this choice. Then remember that the success of whoever they pick will be to a large extent a product of what’s around him - and then what’s between his ears (which no one can really judge until it’s too late).

 

 

[The Consigliere]

14 hours ago, bh32 said:

It would be foolish to take a QB that has started 55 games in college and only had a break out year in year 5..

To be fair to Daniels. All his years were good, he was always playing inside the top 50, and by his final 3 years I believe he was in the 20's, teens and then finally #1 overall in year 5, but yes, he was not dominant or very very good until the very end, and that, to me is not remotely as impressive as what Drake did, period. Again, Maye's 1st year was better than any of Daniels years by far other than his 5th, and Drake's second, regression year, was also, better than any Daniels year, save '23. This shouldn't be hard AT ALL. I am baffled as to why there's even a debate. I'd just add, to steel man, that Daniels was always good, period, in college, just not remotely at Maye's level, ever, until year 5, but that doesn't mean he didnt break out. He fit the breakout metric his first year in terms of QBR, and was always pretty good to good until he blew up nuclear style last year (as an example, he made it inside the top 20 in '22). 

Edited April 13 by The Consigliere

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

You want to run vertical offense and you do not want your flats to constantly be occupied because you want them cleared out for Jayden to run through.  Guys like Corley are not a good fit with a Jayden Daniels offense.

Agree with this.
 

Have been seeing a lot of basketball analogies lately, and cluttering the short-intermediate zones feels akin to having a big center tethered to the basket and clogging the lane when your PG is an elite driver and finisher at the basket. You have to give him space to operate, which means being able to spread things out vertically and horizontally to create lanes for him. I’m not a Corley fan anyway, but wide receivers who do all their work at or near the LOS will compress things too much for Jayden to really be able to stretch his legs.

 

He’s a bit of a tough guy to get weapons for, because he needs a lot of traits. I think he absolutely needs guys who can separate and win quickly within play structure — because he doesn’t really improvise as a passer. He wants to throw the ball within the play design, and he isn’t big on throwing guys open, so you need guys who can show *open* quickly without free-lancing. You also want to have guys who have vertical speed and ball tracking to unlock the deep throwing ability, which has been his other A trait since he was a freshman. We saw the slot fades and whatnot at LSU, but he was throwing that beautiful arcing deep ball all the way back as a freshman. 
 

The problem is that if you can separate quickly and provide a dangerous deep target, you’re usually a very high-end talent. Someone like Justin Jefferson is the prototype for what you want for Jayden (which makes his situation worth monitoring, btw). Not too many Day 2 guys are great at both. Legette and Tez Walker are excellent deep targets, of course, but they’re both very unreliable in terms of separating. McConkey and Pearsall are elite separators, but they’ve never shown much ability to get on top of defenses. 
 

The one trait I would drop from significant consideration is size/contested catch ability. If you’re not open, Jayden isn’t going to throw it. That’s probably both a compliment and an insult, but either way, it’s true. There’s no sense investing in some burly, big-body box-out brawler or high-flying leaper when he just isn’t going to put the ball up for grabs like that. 
 

My initial thought for best fit for Jayden in R2 and beyond that is Troy Franklin. Elite deep ball guy, also has more ability than some guys in that profile (ahem, Dyami Brown) to uncover underneath with good releases and some nice route touches. He’s always open on slants, it feels like. He’s even skinnier than Jayden, but at some point…maybe that’s just who we’re gonna be. If you want to be physical and imposing, you maybe don’t choose Jayden Daniels as the QB.
 

Could see the fit with either of the Texas guys, but I don’t think they make it to us. Other than Franklin, I think Roman Wilson is probably a good fit with Jayden. I’d kinda like the fit with Jalen McMillan, who has an array of skills and also likes to block (an underrated aspect, given that the big runs downfield get bigger if the wideouts put in work). Later on, I like Tahj Washington as a separator and YAC demon who also blocks. Little guys like Anthony Gould and Jha’quan Jackson would be fun, just for the electricity factor.