The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[SoCalSkins]

8 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

I’d be interested to see the percentage of major injuries to QBs that happen behind the line of scrimmage/in the pocket vs beyond it. The recent ones that I can think of off the top of my head have mostly happened in the former: purdy UCL, herbert finger, rodgers achilles, kirk achilles, burrow wrist. Three of those guys were untouched. The one outside the pocket was richardson

It’s the guys that fight for extra yards downfield that you have to worry about. Rg3 vs Baltimore. Drew Bledsoe collapsed lung etc. Jayden is not shy to take a hit. I will absolutely give him credit for that for fighting for extra yards but I don’t think it can work long term or even for half a season at this level at his size.
 

Kyler tries to avoid contact and he gets hit and gets hurt often. Jayden seemingly looks for contact. So many of those hits he could have slid or stepped out of bounds. We said the same thing about Rg3 and he never learned. 

[Wyvern]

28 minutes ago, Llevron said:

I’m glad we are striving to be as non biased as possible lmao 

Llevron, unfortunately I don't have access to NFLN, on all the interviews -- I was just curious about the person behind the stats, and all I had access to was YouTube and the occasional "X" video-excerpt.

 

I'll be offering up my thoughts soon enough, and expect I'll be well-schooled by those who don't agree with my perceptions. 

 

I don't mind that, because I need character reasons to like (at least a little) the person who Washington selects to lead this team forward.  I want to be able to cheer for the person, not the laundry (as Seinfeld joked.). For example, if Snyder/Rivera had decided to sign DeShaun Watson -- I really couldn't have enjoyed cheering for someone with all that "baggage" regardless of his skills.  (I digress, but I'm one of those folks on the "character matters!" side of fandom.)

 

 

Edited April 12 by Wyvern

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Wyvern said:

I was having a little free time one evening, and decided I could add a little more material for ES fans to discuss while debating the plusses and minuses of Daniels vs Maye.

 

I'm just curious how folks will react to the media interviews they gave after their Pro-Day.  After all, one of them could be the face of the franchise and likely would be trotted out after each game to face the media.

 

I'll grant that the venues and format interviews are in somewhat different -- but after all, the media probably wanted to interview some of LSU's receivers as well as Daniels.  But I suspect you'll see some other differences between the two ... I'm curious what people think/feel from the pressers and if it might be a factor in the Washington coaching staff and front office's evaluation process.

 

Here's the YouTube of Drake Maye's presser after his pro-day:

 

 

Here's the YouTube of Jayden Daniels' presser after his pro-day:

 

 

 

I have some observations -- but will hold off on my comments, because I am trying not to influence anyone's initial reactions to them performing something that both will have to do as part of their jobs.   Mainly, I just wanted add a little more material for folks to "chew on.". Please let me know if you want me to include J.J. McCarthy's interview -- he held a longer one at the combine which would be a good comparison as he gives some insight about himself.

 

 

 

(If this was already posted somewhere in this massively-long thread please accept my apologies.)

 

 

Might as well add my 1B QB after Maye in the Pro Day interview process too!  

 

 

Edited April 12 by RWJ

[Llevron]

15 minutes ago, Wyvern said:

Llevron, unfortunately I don't have access to NFLN, on all the interviews -- I was just curious about the person behind the stats, and all I had access to was YouTube and the occasional "X" video-excerpt.

 

I'll be offering up my thoughts soon enough, and expect I'll be well-schooled by those who don't agree with my perceptions. 

 

I don't mind that, because I need character reasons to like (at least a little) the person who Washington selects to lead this team forward.  I want to be able to cheer for the person, not the laundry (as Seinfeld joked.). For example, if Snyder/Rivera had decided to sign DeShaun Watson -- I really couldn't have enjoyed cheering for someone with all that "baggage" regardless of his skills.  (I digress, but I'm one of those folks on the "character matters!" side of fandom.)

 

 

Listen as long as we agree then we don’t have any problems. (That’s a joke) 
 

I understand rooting for who you like. I generally choose to like whoever it is I have to root for with a few notable exceptions. 
 

I have accepted we won’t all agree and am just enjoying the drama at this point. 

[illone]

14 more sleeps until we can start arguing about starting lineups🤪

[SkinsFTW]

1 hour ago, Mooka said:

 

I was looking at the Pressure/Sack/Whatever stats and then noticed Bo Nix was sacked 5 times in 470 attempts behind Oregon's O-Line and Penix Jr was sacked 11 times in 555 attempts at Washington. 

 

That's a sack every 94 pass attempts for Nix.

 

 

 

Nix and Penix were basically sitting at home playing Madden.

 

No wonder Penix struggled in the championship game.

[SoCalSkins]

15 minutes ago, Wyvern said:

 

I don't mind that, because I need character reasons to like (at least a little) the person who Washington selects to lead this team forward.  I want to be able to cheer for the person, not the laundry (as Seinfeld joked.). For example, if Snyder/Rivera had decided to sign DeShaun Watson -- I really couldn't have enjoyed cheering for someone with all that "baggage" regardless of his skills.  (I digress, but I'm one of those folks on the "character matters!" side of fandom.)

 

 

Daniels is probably not the QB for you. There were NCAA recruiting issues involving his mom at ASU, coaches fired and teammates thrown under the bus. Subsequently fleeing to program where character doesn’t matter much. The same school Snyder and Allen looked the other way and drafted Derrius Guice. 
 

Maye and JJ probably align more with your rooting interest if character is important.
 

Then again Daniels couldn’t stay away from mom for even 1 extra night and left the combine early so it’s plausible if we draft him, he might come straight home after every practice and nurse in the blue tent in the living room while he puts on the VR goggles to study film. The draft is a crapshoot. 
 

 

[SkinsFTW]

3 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Daniels is probably not the QB for you. There were NCAA recruiting issues involving his mom at ASU, coaches fired and teammates thrown under the bus. Subsequently fleeing to program where character doesn’t matter much. The same school Snyder and Allen looked the other way and drafted Derrius Guice. 
 

Maye and JJ probably align more with your rooting interest if character is important.
 

Then again Daniels couldn’t stay away from mom for even 1 extra night and left the combine early so it’s plausible if we draft him, he might come straight home after every practice and nurse in the blue tent in the living room while he puts on the VR goggles to study film. The draft is a crapshoot. 
 

 

 

This post is sponsored by:

 

 

Edited April 12 by SkinsFTW

[Kalu44]

Forgetting their individual talent for a second, Drake appears to be more mature than Daniels (at a younger age I might add). I see a little Tom Brady arrogance in him too.

 

Daniels keeps saying the same thing over and over about a team that “believes” in him, and I didn’t understand his last 20 seconds of answering the slide question. He also looks down a lot when he talks, almost a little shy?

 

Daniels might have more talent, but I think Maye might end up being the better leader.

 

Edited April 12 by Kalu44

[Dah-Dee]

2 hours ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

I’d be interested to see the percentage of major injuries to QBs that happen behind the line of scrimmage/in the pocket vs beyond it. The recent ones that I can think of off the top of my head have mostly happened in the former: purdy UCL, herbert finger, rodgers achilles, kirk achilles, burrow wrist. Three of those guys were untouched. The one outside the pocket was richardson

 

Found a few articles on related studies:

 

 

https://www.filmstudybaltimore.com/new-study-quarterbacks-that-run-most-are-not-injured-most/

 

NEW STUDY: QUARTERBACKS THAT RUN MOST ARE NOT INJURED MOST

NFL quarterbacks that run the most are not injured the most, according to NFL injury data compiled from the last decade (2010-2019). In fact, Run Frequency isn’t even a reliable predictor for NFL quarterback injuries.

In other words, one cannot predict from observed data that a signal-caller like 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson is more prone to injuries simply because he runs more than other NFL passers.

 

These observations were made after reviewing a decade’s worth of regular-season injury reports for all quarterbacks from all 32 NFL teams. To discover whether there was a correlation between Run Frequency and injuries, the percentage of games a QB missed due to injury was charted versus his Run Frequency (see charts below in subsequent sections).

 

This study yielded many findings, but among them were two key observations: 1) Run Frequency didn’t reliably predict QB injuries and 2) quarterbacks that run most are injured less frequently than the NFL QB average.

 

[continues]

 

 

 

Also: 

 

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/season/2021/mobile-quarterbacks-and-injury-rates#/

 

MOBILE QUARTERBACKS AND INJURY RATES

The Injury Prone narrative is a myth as old as time in fantasy circles and sports as a whole. However, injury rates in the NFL are volatile and inevitable making the term inherently impossible to define. Nevertheless, one particular associated myth persists and it’is the idea that mobile quarterbacks are more likely to be injured compared to their less athletic counterparts. This has led to fantasy managers actively avoiding mobile quarterbacks and instead opting to draft statues like Tom Brady. Those people probably carry around extra socks, too. You know, just in case.

 

The bottom line is that mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and even Patrick Mahomes, who can run in his own right, are here to stay. Similar to the way a target is more valuable than a carry, quarterbacks who can run are far and away more valuable to fantasy than statues. The community is recognizing this advantage at a rapid rate, though, and they are no longer a luxury. Establishing the run is dead and so is waiting too long on a mobile QB. Even Mr. Late Round QB himself has acknowledged this shift in the landscape.

 

[continues]

 

 

 

 

And even back in the olden days of 2013:

 

https://slate.com/culture/2013/02/quarterback-injuries-are-mobile-qbs-like-colin-kaepernick-more-injury-prone-than-pocket-passers.html

The Running Men

Are mobile quarterbacks like Colin Kaepernick more injury-prone than pocket passers?

[excerpts]

 

As you’ll see in the chart below, regardless of how we sliced the data, there was no statistically significant difference in injury rates between mobile and conventional quarterbacks. Quarterbacks of both types tend to lose 11 to 14 percent of their starts to injury. Even without counting the thus-far injury-free Kaepernick, three of the four tests produced a lower injury rate for mobile quarterbacks. The gap, though, is small enough that a statistician would call it zero.

 

This was an intriguing finding. We were worried, though, that we had made too coarse a distinction between quarterback types, so we turned to regression analysis to understand if any combination of variables might explain why we see high injury rates in some quarterback seasons and low rates in others. Again, we found no relationship between rush share and starts missed due to injury. This held even when we controlled for age and weight—neither of which were found to have an effect on health—and also for injuries in the season prior, which did turn out to be a weak but statistically significant predictor of injury in any given year.

 

It turns out that the only gameplay variable that explains injuries with any statistical significance is sacks. On average, a 1 percent increase in sack share—the percentage of plays called for the QB that end in a sack—is associated with a 2.6 percent rise in starts missed due to injury (0.7 percent standard error). This link holds when we use the career-wise dataset and when we use sacks per start instead of sack share.

 

In sum, it seems that standing in the pocket is just as dangerous as scrambling around. Yes, RGIII left the Redskins’ playoff game with his knee twisted so badly that you hoped Fox was experimenting with in-game CGI. But when we take the long view, serious injury doesn’t discriminate based on one’s ability to race.

 

At least one puzzle remains, though. Since sacks are the only significant predictor of injury other than prior medical history, it is tempting to tell a story in which mobile quarterbacks evade sacks more successfully, thus compensating for the injury risk inherent in rushing upfield. Yet the dataset reveals that mobile quarterbacks are sacked slightly more often than are conventional QBs. We can show that mobility doesn’t have a negative effect on health, but we can’t explain exactly how running quarterbacks are able to avoid additional risk.

 

We aren’t necessarily jumping on the read-option bandwagon, either. There’s still plenty to debate regarding the effectiveness of mobile quarterbacks. They may be less useful in two-minute drills, and their main advantage—speed—may wane quickly with age. But we hope to have shown that, based on the evidence available, conventional fears about quarterback rushing and injury risk may be overblown. If a general manager wants to protect a top draft pick, he should shore up the offensive line and cross his fingers.

Edited April 12 by Dah-Dee

[Ghost of]

But you didn't post his counter points:

If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you know that I like to establish what I’m not saying. What I’m not saying is:

 

Mobile quarterbacks are injured less frequently than statue quarterbacks.

 

Running the football, as a whole, is less dangerous and results in fewer injuries than passing the ball.

 

Pocket passers won’t stay healthy/are injury prone.

 

Also what the fantasy community values isn't what I'm valuing in the future. 

 

 

About those interview videos. Again, I ask Daniels backers: This y'alls QB?!

 

Daniels grew up in San Bernardino. Why is it that I have a hard time understanding him? Why is he saying the commanders already did their homework. Is this mumblecore shy guy demeanor going to inspire his teammates? I guess he had no issue at LSU but at some point I'd like to see something that fills me with confidence.

 

Dan Quinn talks about post snap processing. In what way if you're not using the scramble to keep your eyes down field? 

[Est.1974]

6 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

Jayden does not mention people by name.

Just to pick up on this point, he specifically does in that interview, so what do you mean by this ?

6 hours ago, mistertim said:

Wow those two pressers were very different, and Maye and Daniels have super different personalities it seems. Maye is clearly more extroverted and gregarious; more of a natural speaker, etc. Daniels seems more reserved and almost nervous, but came across well in his answers overall.

 

Neither of those are all that surprising though, as we've heard before that Daniels is more of an introvert and tends to lead by example while Maye is more of an extrovert and vocal leader.

 

I'm very curious as to how much of a role that plays in the decision making process for GMAP and DQ. From what I can tell so far, I think they both seem to lean more towards the vocal type of leader, but who knows

Yeah agree with this. 
 

Perhaps some traits from there differing ages comes through as well.

[Est.1974]

5 hours ago, RWJ said:

Might as well add my 1B QB after Maye in the Pro Day interview process too!  

 

 

To be fair he’s a very grounded person.  Comes across very well. Very mature. Looking forward to the week ahead and all three visits.

[mh86]

6 hours ago, Wyvern said:

 

 

I'll grant that the venues and format interviews are in somewhat different -- but after all, the media probably wanted to interview some of LSU's receivers as well as Daniels.  But I suspect you'll see some other differences between the two ... I'm curious what people think/feel from the pressers and if it might be a factor in the Washington coaching staff and front office's evaluation process.

 

Here's the YouTube of Drake Maye's presser after his pro-day:

 

 

Here's the YouTube of Jayden Daniels' presser after his pro-day:

 

 

 

I have some observations -- but will hold off on my comments, because I am trying not to influence anyone's initial reactions to them performing something that both will have to do as part of their jobs.   Mainly, I just wanted add a little more material for folks to "chew on.". Please let me know if you want me to include J.J. McCarthy's interview -- he held a longer one at the combine which would be a good comparison as he gives some insight about himself.

 

 

 

(If this was already posted somewhere in this massively-long thread please accept my apologies.)

 

 

Thanks for sharing this. I’ll start by saying if I were to choose a QB based solely off these three (I watched JJs as well), I’d go JJ. Now what I took away:

 

Daniels you can tell is very uncomfortable in front of the cameras and people. The mumbling doesn’t bother me too much, but I could see it being off putting to some. His end of game pressers probably wouldn’t be too exciting to watch. Not much else to say about that since his answers were all pretty short and generic (expected).
 

Maye might’ve been a little more comfortable, but you could tell with his hand movements, slamming his hand against the podium at one point, and sticking his tongue out on several occasions that he was still uncomfortable. While Daniels mumbles, Maye kind of talks fast. Not sure if that’s his normal or if he chugged a dozen rip its before throwing. His answers did have a bit more depth, which i appreciated. 

 

JJ seemed to be the most comfortable of the three and he’s a really good speaker. Didn’t seem like he had to pause as much for his answers compared to the other two. Am now interested in what harbaugh said to him, but I guess we’ll never know. 
 

None of this really matters to me at the end of the day, but I did enjoy watching all three videos. Thanks again for sharing.

[Skinsinparadise]

I tend to watch prospects I like or who we might take so i am not new to Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, watched a ton of the interviews.

 

McCarthy, and i mentioned thiis before by a mile to me is the best interview of the three -- very comfortable in front of the camera, disarming, honest, articulate and even a bit entertaining

 

Maye, comes off very country, a bit fidgity, a little nervous, but energetic, outgoing

 

Daniels, comes off like a nice guy, a bit shy, a little uncomfortable

 

Riddick said last year Daniels came out of his shell some.

Edited April 12 by Skinsinparadise

[MartinC]

12 hours ago, actorguy1 said:

Just remember, 75% of the fan base follows the team casually. As far as they know, Schefter said they are leaning Daniels. They will watch one highlight reel on YouTube and will assume this is definitely happening and they are fine with it.

A fair percentage of posters in this thread seem to be assuming it’s happening. Not all of them seem fine with it mind you.

 

I lean Maye but think we are in the very fortunate position of having two blue chip QB prospects to choose from. I’m relaxed about this - have to trust people being paid a lot of money to do the analysis and make the decision.

[RandyHolt]

7 hours ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

I’d be interested to see the percentage of major injuries to QBs that happen behind the line of scrimmage/in the pocket vs beyond it. The recent ones that I can think of off the top of my head have mostly happened in the former: purdy UCL, herbert finger, rodgers achilles, kirk achilles, burrow wrist. Three of those guys were untouched. The one outside the pocket was richardson

Yeah i was more speaking in generalities that QBs get injured in the pocket plenty - they don't brace themselves like when running. Sure its been addressed big time by eliminating knee injuries via low hits but a hand hitting a helmet on a follow through seems as common as an injury from a scramble. Admittedly, QBs no longer stand in the pocket and take hits to make throws like back in the day so pocket injury risk is minimized in that way. I miss the days of the QB becoming free game after INTs - need that youtube from that 80's. 

 

Old time hockey football for bored folks

 

[MartinC]

27 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

 Admittedly, QBs no longer stand in the pocket and take hits to make throws like back in the day so pocket injury risk is minimized in that way. 

 

Rule changes to protect QBs certainly mean QBs don’t take hits to the head or below the knees like back in the day (well not nearly as much). But they absolutely still take a beating standing in making throws. Heck just think of some of the shots Sam Howell took last year.

 

Playing QB from within the pocket in the NFL is still a significant physical challenge.

[CommanderInTheRye]

56 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I tend to watch prospects I like or who we might take so i am not new to Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, watched a ton of the interviews.

 

McCarthy, and i mentioned thiis before by a mile to me is the best interview of the three -- very comfortable in front of the camera, disarming, honest, articulate and even a bit entertaining

 

Maye, comes off very country, a bit fidgity, a little nervous, but energetic, outgoing

 

Daniels, comes off like a nice guy, a bit shy, a little uncomfortable

 

Riddick said last year Daniels came out of his shell some.

 

 

Beat me to it. Well said. 

 

The only thing I'd add:

 

McCarthy--

 

Has everything you look for in a leader and communicator, comfortable and totally at ease on the podium. Truly, a rare find with respect to off the field qualities, charisma, character, sincerity, and likeability. Will immediately be a hometown media favorite.

 

Only question I have is the on the field stuff, and much of that is due to how he was used at Michigan.

 

He simply wasn't given the same opportunities that the other top 4 qbs had-- whether that was because the offense was dominant in the run game or because the coaches had doubts he could do it, is for others to judge.

 

Love that he accepted his role, never complained, and always found ways to win within the structure of his offense. True us, not me player.

 

Maye--

 

Confident, intelligent, sincere, but not polished. Perhaps slightly over energetic (possibly nervous tension), but he generally comes off as a good likeable guy which is important. 

 

Has a strange nervous tic where he lifts his shoulder spontaneously, but seems to be doing much better with this particular interview than in others I've seen.

 

(I notice that he now occasionally puts his arms behind his back and clasps his hands together, perhaps this was suggested to him to cut down on the shoulder shrugs?)

 

Think he will have no problems and be an exemplary team leader and spokesman for the franchise that drafts him.

 

Just not on JJs level as a communicator, but no other qb  in the draft is either.

 

Jayden--

 

Needs a lot of work. Was not very comfortable, which makes the viewer/audience subliminally uncomfortable as well.

 

Would benefit from speaker training, including body language techniques, voice projection, eye contact, and directed practice sessions with feedback.

 

That said, he was generally likeable, direct, and honest. He just needs more experience, better focus, and a better understanding of the intricacies of professional communication.

 

All of this is fixable, but he will definitely need to work at it.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 12 by CommanderInTheRye

[Skinsinparadise]

Sizing up quarterback options for Commanders at No. 2

 

Keim's article

 

The Washington Commanders have a big decision to make in the 2024 NFL draft.

With the Chicago Bears expected to select USC signal-caller Caleb Williams first overall, Washington, which has long been searching for a franchise quarterback, will have three candidates to choose from with the No. 2 pick: LSU's Jayden Daniels, North Carolina's Drake Maye and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy.

Each offers something different. Daniels provides electric running ability and has shown improvement as a pocket passer. Maye possesses a big frame, a strong arm and a high ceiling. And McCarthy, who led the Wolverines to a national title last season, has intangibles teams covet.

 

...ESPN spoke with more than a dozen executives, coaches, scouts and analysts about Daniels, Maye and McCarthy. Here's what they said.

 

Jayden Daniels

Daniels, who played five seasons of college football at Arizona State and LSU, has gone from an intriguing talent to a Heisman Trophy winner and potential second overall choice. In the last of his two seasons at LSU he threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns and ran for another 1,134 yards and 10 scores.

The case for Daniels: When asked why Daniels should be taken at No. 2, one NFL head coach highlighted his running ability and accuracy down the field.

An NFC offensive coach called Daniels "a home run."

"The only knock on him is when [he] throws outside [the] numbers, he doesn't drive it," the coach said. "It's not a fastball. But he goes through his progressions so well that it doesn't matter and when [the play] breaks down he can run. ... Jayden is a passer who can run fast."

 

Daniels did not get timed in the 40-yard dash this offseason, but he ran the ball 617 times during his college career, providing teams with more than enough chances to gauge his speed. Last season, he ran 135 times and averaged 8.4 yards.

"When he runs it's not for 5 yards, it will be for 20 yards, 30 yards," said Herm Edwards, who coached Daniels at Arizona State. "[Drafting] Jayden Daniels alone has helped their offensive line, has helped their run game if they take him."

Edwards also lauded Daniels' maturity.

"His growth in the classroom, his ability to learn how to study film, to process information," Edwards said. "His talent is his talent; it jumps off the tape. But there's still a learning curve and I've watched him mature the last couple years and just being more patient in the pocket."

"What's cool about Jayden is he's got game-changing athletic ability but he can also play quarterback," another head coach said.

Daniels' deep passing also was mentioned often. He led all college passers with a 100 QBR on throws of 20 air yards or more, with an NCAA-best 66.7% completion rate and 22 touchdowns and no picks on such throws. Washington coach Dan Quinn has said more than once that the Commanders want someone who can throw deep.

The case against Daniels: Daniels will be 24 by the end of his rookie season. Could he be closer to his ceiling than Maye and McCarthy?

Also, Daniels weighed in at 210 pounds at the scouting combine and has a slender frame.

"The only issue with Jayden is his stature," said former Washington coach Jay Gruden, who analyzes draft prospects.

Lighter quarterbacks have had successful NFL careers. Kirk Cousins, who is 1 inch shorter than Daniels, has played at around 200 to 205 pounds since his final season as Commanders QB in 2017. But Daniels runs more than Cousins, which has some evaluators and coaches concerned about injury risk.

 

 

Drake Maye

Maye started for two seasons at North Carolina, throwing for a combined 8,018 yards and 63 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. He ran for 1,209 yards and 16 scores. He was the ACC Player of the Year in 2022 but threw 14 fewer touchdown passes last season.

The case for Maye: At 6-foot-4, 230 pounds Maye has size, a big arm and running ability. Multiple coaches compared him to Justin Herbert.

"His toughness, his physical style, is what you're looking for," Gruden said. "He's more of the prototypical size, strength, athletic quarterback that you want and we've just got to fix some of his accuracy issues, but he'll make up for it with his ability to run and break some tackles on third and 8 and get you the first down."

Mayo, whose Patriots are expected to draft a quarterback in the slot behind the Commanders, said Maye "brings a lot of energy."

 

"You can tell he has that leadership ability," Mayo said. "The exciting part about a guy like Drake Maye is the ceiling. There is really no ceiling with a guy like that. He has a lot of room to grow."

While almost all of the coaches interviewed said they would take Daniels over Maye, some analysts did not. One pointed to Maye playing in an Air Raid system at UNC in 2022. Kliff Kingsbury, Washington's offensive coordinator, runs a version of the offense.

NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah also favors Maye.

"There's risk involved," Jeremiah said. "He is not a perfect player, but you can fill in the gaps when you have somebody who has size, who has a live arm, who is a good athlete, who is by all accounts an incredibly bright, great leader. You just have to have faith that it's going to come together."

The case against Maye: The reasons some were reluctant to rate Maye over Daniels were many and varied. They pointed to "missed layups" -- passes that should have been easy completions. They said his footwork needed fixing. Some said the simplicity of defenses in the ACC hindered evaluations of his ability to adjust post-snap, especially compared to Daniels, who played in the SEC. Another didn't like the change in offensive systems UNC underwent from 2022 to 2023, saying it did not provide enough evidence of how Maye's ability to read his progressions would translate to the NFL.

Multiple NFL head coaches said Maye would have to sit for a while before being ready to start.

"He's worth developing because he's big and tough and works at it," one NFL offensive coach said. "But when you pick him, everyone's on the hook for his development and everyone will get fired if it doesn't work."

Comparing Maye to Herbert, that same coach said: "He has a lesser arm and lesser speed. He can't save plays like Herbert."

 

 

J.J. McCarthy

McCarthy started 28 games over the past two seasons, leading Michigan to a 27-1 record. Last season, he threw for 2,991 yards and 22 touchdowns with four interceptions while playing in a run-heavy scheme. McCarthy was the Big Ten's Offensive Player of the Year and MVP of the College Football Playoff semifinal against Alabama.

The case for McCarthy: He is a bit of a mystery. He wasn't asked to do a lot in college, which has led teams to extrapolate what he might accomplish in the NFL.

One of his biggest fans is his former coach at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh, who is now at the same position with the Los Angeles Chargers.

"He plays quarterback the best of any quarterback in the draft," Harbaugh told reporters at the league meeting. "He's incredible."

One league source predicted in January that once teams got around McCarthy in person they would like him even more. Harbaugh said he witnessed that at McCarthy's pro day.

 

 

...The case against McCarthy: One coach questioned whether McCarthy belongs in the top group of QBs this draft (with Williams, Daniels and Maye) or at the top of the next tier, which includes Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon's Bo Nix. Another NFL offensive coach thought McCarthy would get "way over-drafted" just because he's a quarterback. This coach said McCarthy must improve on certain fundamentals -- shortening his stride and learning to throw with more touch, for example.

Gruden said Michigan's "simplistic" offense also did McCarthy no favors.

"They really didn't ask him to do a whole lot. He obviously could handle it when he was asked to spread it out a little bit. ... You've just got to see more from him."

Whether Washington ultimately decides to take Daniels, Maye or McCarthy later this month, one NFL offensive coach said the Commanders are in an enviable spot.

"They're in a good position because they have a lot of options."

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39924809/commanders-quarterback-options-no-2-nfl-draft-jayden-daniels

Edited April 12 by Skinsinparadise

[skinsfan66]

6 hours ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

Found a few articles on related studies:

 

 

https://www.filmstudybaltimore.com/new-study-quarterbacks-that-run-most-are-not-injured-most/

 

NEW STUDY: QUARTERBACKS THAT RUN MOST ARE NOT INJURED MOST

NFL quarterbacks that run the most are not injured the most, according to NFL injury data compiled from the last decade (2010-2019). In fact, Run Frequency isn’t even a reliable predictor for NFL quarterback injuries.

In other words, one cannot predict from observed data that a signal-caller like 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson is more prone to injuries simply because he runs more than other NFL passers.

 

These observations were made after reviewing a decade’s worth of regular-season injury reports for all quarterbacks from all 32 NFL teams. To discover whether there was a correlation between Run Frequency and injuries, the percentage of games a QB missed due to injury was charted versus his Run Frequency (see charts below in subsequent sections).

 

This study yielded many findings, but among them were two key observations: 1) Run Frequency didn’t reliably predict QB injuries and 2) quarterbacks that run most are injured less frequently than the NFL QB average.

 

[continues]

 

 

 

Also: 

 

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/season/2021/mobile-quarterbacks-and-injury-rates#/

 

MOBILE QUARTERBACKS AND INJURY RATES

The Injury Prone narrative is a myth as old as time in fantasy circles and sports as a whole. However, injury rates in the NFL are volatile and inevitable making the term inherently impossible to define. Nevertheless, one particular associated myth persists and it’is the idea that mobile quarterbacks are more likely to be injured compared to their less athletic counterparts. This has led to fantasy managers actively avoiding mobile quarterbacks and instead opting to draft statues like Tom Brady. Those people probably carry around extra socks, too. You know, just in case.

 

The bottom line is that mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and even Patrick Mahomes, who can run in his own right, are here to stay. Similar to the way a target is more valuable than a carry, quarterbacks who can run are far and away more valuable to fantasy than statues. The community is recognizing this advantage at a rapid rate, though, and they are no longer a luxury. Establishing the run is dead and so is waiting too long on a mobile QB. Even Mr. Late Round QB himself has acknowledged this shift in the landscape.

 

[continues]

 

 

 

 

And even back in the olden days of 2013:

 

https://slate.com/culture/2013/02/quarterback-injuries-are-mobile-qbs-like-colin-kaepernick-more-injury-prone-than-pocket-passers.html

The Running Men

Are mobile quarterbacks like Colin Kaepernick more injury-prone than pocket passers?

[excerpts]

 

As you’ll see in the chart below, regardless of how we sliced the data, there was no statistically significant difference in injury rates between mobile and conventional quarterbacks. Quarterbacks of both types tend to lose 11 to 14 percent of their starts to injury. Even without counting the thus-far injury-free Kaepernick, three of the four tests produced a lower injury rate for mobile quarterbacks. The gap, though, is small enough that a statistician would call it zero.

 

This was an intriguing finding. We were worried, though, that we had made too coarse a distinction between quarterback types, so we turned to regression analysis to understand if any combination of variables might explain why we see high injury rates in some quarterback seasons and low rates in others. Again, we found no relationship between rush share and starts missed due to injury. This held even when we controlled for age and weight—neither of which were found to have an effect on health—and also for injuries in the season prior, which did turn out to be a weak but statistically significant predictor of injury in any given year.

 

It turns out that the only gameplay variable that explains injuries with any statistical significance is sacks. On average, a 1 percent increase in sack share—the percentage of plays called for the QB that end in a sack—is associated with a 2.6 percent rise in starts missed due to injury (0.7 percent standard error). This link holds when we use the career-wise dataset and when we use sacks per start instead of sack share.

 

In sum, it seems that standing in the pocket is just as dangerous as scrambling around. Yes, RGIII left the Redskins’ playoff game with his knee twisted so badly that you hoped Fox was experimenting with in-game CGI. But when we take the long view, serious injury doesn’t discriminate based on one’s ability to race.

 

At least one puzzle remains, though. Since sacks are the only significant predictor of injury other than prior medical history, it is tempting to tell a story in which mobile quarterbacks evade sacks more successfully, thus compensating for the injury risk inherent in rushing upfield. Yet the dataset reveals that mobile quarterbacks are sacked slightly more often than are conventional QBs. We can show that mobility doesn’t have a negative effect on health, but we can’t explain exactly how running quarterbacks are able to avoid additional risk.

 

We aren’t necessarily jumping on the read-option bandwagon, either. There’s still plenty to debate regarding the effectiveness of mobile quarterbacks. They may be less useful in two-minute drills, and their main advantage—speed—may wane quickly with age. But we hope to have shown that, based on the evidence available, conventional fears about quarterback rushing and injury risk may be overblown. If a general manager wants to protect a top draft pick, he should shore up the offensive line and cross his fingers.

Means nothing to me. Mahomes,Lamar,Hurts,Watson,Richardson, Allen thicker builds much harder to tackle and even bounce off sometimes R.B. bodies. Kap, bob3, kyler, fields...To risky for me at 2 along with Daniels.  

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, skinsfan66 said:

Means nothing to me. Mahomes,Lamar,Hurts,Watson,Richardson, Allen thicker builds much harder to tackle and even bounce off sometimes R.B. bodies. Kap, bob3, kyler, fields...To risky for me at 2 along with Daniels.  

 

 

"Too risky for me..."

 

Queue the old school Star Trek theme and prepare for some comical over acting by Shatner...

 

 

 

 

Edited April 12 by CommanderInTheRye

[Panninho]

Sounds like it's JD's job to lose next week based on that last sentence.

 

 

[Llevron]

In Keims interview with Quinn they bring up analytics and specifically the P2S%. It’s just a small tidbit but the overall point is that they look at them (analytics in general) and then try to understand what happened. “Analytics in tap, not on top” is a direct quote of Quinn. 
 

Specifically about the P2S% he basically said it depends on what happened. He wasn’t super direct and didn’t say anything to end our argument, unfortunately. Did mention throw aways are good plays. Just throwing it up is not. Doesn’t like Hero Ball and that stuck out to me specifically cause all the prospects do it in one way or another. 

2 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Sounds like it's JD's job to lose next week based on that last sentence.

 

 

Funny to me it sounds like they are endeavoring to stay non biased until they know everything. Who the **** know this **** is stressful lol

[skinsfan66]

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

Rule changes to protect QBs certainly mean QBs don’t take hits to the head or below the knees like back in the day (well not nearly as much). But they absolutely still take a beating standing in making throws. Heck just think of some of the shots Sam Howell took last year.

 

Playing QB from within the pocket in the NFL is still a significant physical challenge.

Not sure Daniels could have taken those hits, just a opinion? Howell took one on the sideline against Arizona head to head, It was a cheap shot should have been ejection and he got up.