The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Dah-Dee]

RG3: "Drake Maye reminds me of me!"

 

World:

 

[The Consigliere]

7 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Houston will have a first place schedule. I doubt they repeat the success they had last year. Wouldn’t surprise me, if this miss the playoffs this year.

That's always kind of nebulous: 

For them it means:

Hosting: Miami, Buffalo, Baltimore, Detroit, Chicago

Visiting: Kansas City, New England, NYJ, Green Bay, Minny, Dallas

 

Schedule is definitely harder, the problem for me, for them, is that you'd probably like to switch your hosting and visiting schedule, if Buffalo and Miami have their S together, it's conceivable they could lose 4/5 of those games, meanwhile the roadies are largely against weird sides like NYJ, GB, Minny and Dallas where you have no idea what to expect. 

 

It's an interesting division, no great teams, but 3 different teams that could be above .500 if things go their way in the offseason and with health. 

[oraphus]

7 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Houston will have a first place schedule. I doubt they repeat the success they had last year. Wouldn’t surprise me, if this miss the playoffs this year.

I think you'll be disappointed... Texans are a legit contender. They got better across the board while already having a great coach, two of the top young WRs in the NFL.. not much of a running game in 23.  

Now have a much improved D and Mixon at RB, Diggs, etc.  Unless Stroud completely falls off in 24 all of a sudden for no reason... they have a real shot to get deep in the playoffs. 

[88Comrade2000]

3 hours ago, Conn said:

This is a different point than your previous post I responded to. They can hit on the pick and not experience a season like Stroud/the Texans had last year. That’s unrealistic as a base expectation—even though we all hope for it. You’re either moving the goalposts intentionally or don’t have a solid handle on what exactly you’re arguing, idk which. Feels like you’re just looking to end up dissatisfied which is an interesting (and comfortable) defense mechanism for fans who have suffered for so long watching this team. In many ways, failure is home. It’s familiar. It seems like you’re fishing for ways to be prepared for this regime’s failure before it can even get off the ground. 

2 completely different divisions. I think the poster you are replying to, has way to high expectations for Year 1.

 

Houston was in a division that had the horrible Titans, the Jags who collapsed after a great start and the Colts who were fighting with the Texans for a spot but with mostly their backup qb. So, conditions were favorable.

 

We will be facing a Philly team that has made improvements to correct last year’s problems, a weaker Dallas team that should still compete for a wild card and then the Giants. An outcome like Houston while possible, doesn’t seem likely.  You figure we struggle early on but as the team starts to jell and rookie qb gets more comfortable, the team gets better as season goes along. If we can make the playoffs great but our season wouldn’t be a failure if we miss the playoffs or finish with the expected 6 to 8 wins.  If we end up like Carolina last year, then you can say the season was a failure.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

If we go Daniels and he busts while Maye flourishes, Peters evaluation skills can no longer be given the benefit of the doubt. I don’t believe the opposite is true either. 
 

 

Since it’s 50-50 either could bust; I wouldn’t hold that AP. He’s making the best choice he thinks. If he misses, he’ll get one more crack at it. 

[DogofWar1]

28 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Did anyone else report this about JD's interview with us?

 

 

 

Bippity boppity boo, this tuesday it's Drake Maye at 2.

 

Bippity boppity bee, on Wednesday it'll be JJ before 3.

[CapsSkins]

31 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Did anyone else report this about JD's interview with us?

 

 

 

That's what happens when @SoCalSkins just *happens* to be sitting one table over at Morton's! 

[DogofWar1]

Evan Silva just casually dropping a huge scoop and bomb into the discourse in a ****ing mock draft, and refusing to explain further.  What a chad chaos agent.

[Dah-Dee]

Patriots reporters might be stalking our board lol:

 

https://www.patsfans.com/patriots/blog/2024/04/09/commanders-pondering-analytics-with-daniels/

 

 

Commanders Pondering Analytics with Daniels?

 

 

Out in Washington, just like in New England, they’re trying to poke holes into Jayden Daniels’ game as the Commanders have seemingly shown the most interest in the LSU quarterback.

 

The number one stat that keeps coming up is the fact Daniels never had a pressure-to-sack rate of less than 20% in a single season in his career, with his combined pressure-to-sack rate finishing at 24%.

 

Commanders reporter Mitch Tischler of NBC Sports Washington spoke with 106.7 on Monday and talked a little bit about his thoughts on the analytics focused on Daniels’ sack rate.  To Tischler, he believes when it comes to Daniels, the LSU standout has the physical tools, which he believes might be tougher to correct with North Carolina’s Drake Maye.

 

“I like Jayden, but I certainly won’t be upset if Drake Maye ends up being the guy,” said Tischler.  “There are baselines in college for these stats that, for years, it’s been a moving goalpost about, ‘if a guy can’t complete more than 60% of his passes in college, he’ll never do it in the pros.’  And you have a guy like Josh Allen who, coming out of Wyoming, completed in the mid-50s percentage of his passes, and lots of folks said, ‘Oh, he can’t be successful, he’s not accurate enough, he doesn’t have a high enough completion percentage.’  You look at kind of what he’s doing in the league now, and you can see there are different ways to be successful.”

 

“Obviously, the pressure-to-sack ratio isn’t a fantastic stat for Jayden Daniels, but I think his completion percentage and his yards per attempt, and his ability to use legs can kind of counteract those things.  At the end of the day, you look at it, and Drake Maye’s pressure-to-sack ratio is percentage is a percentage point and a half lower than what Jayden Daniels’ is.  It’s not like it’s a massive upgrade when you start looking at Drake Maye.  So, listen, there are positive and negative stats you can throw out there for all of these guys at quarterback.  At the end of the day, you have to, as a team, sit down and look at where the player needs improvement and if that can happen within your organization.”

 

“It’s kind of the same thing I’ve been saying for a long time.  For me, I think Jayden Daniels needs to learn how to use the whole field and read the middle of the field a little bit more, maybe be quicker going through his progressions.  And I think that’s something that you can teach a young quarterback.”

 

“With Drake Maye, my worry is his footwork, and his quick pass completion percentage where he can get a little hairy with the football.  To me, that feels a lot tougher to fix something physical than something mental when you get to the NFL level.  And in the meantime, with Jayden Daniels, you have his elite athleticism that you can use to move him around the pocket.”

 

Tischler also noted that he understands why there is concern when it comes to that pressure-to-sack statistic after what happened with Sam Howell last year, with Howell going down a staggering 65 times in 2023.

 

For now, they’re going through a lot of similar discussions we’re hearing locally, so it was interesting to hear that perspective.

 

 

 

 

[ExoDus84]

Just now, DogofWar1 said:

Evan Silva just casually dropping a huge scoop and bomb into the discourse in a ****ing mock draft, and refusing to explain further.  What a chad chaos agent.

 

If being a "chad" means throwing unsourced bull**** against the wall, then I'll rely on the non-chads for sports reporting.

[DogofWar1]

7 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

If being a "chad" means throwing unsourced bull**** against the wall, then I'll rely on the non-chads for sports reporting.

 

I have no idea where this rumor comes from and I have no idea whether it's even remotely accurate.  But I just find it funny that one of the most impactful tidbits of info about the NFL draft may have been snuck into the middle of a mock draft article.

[Going Commando]

4 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

It’s kind of the same thing I’ve been saying for a long time.  For me, I think Jayden Daniels needs to learn how to use the whole field and read the middle of the field a little bit more, maybe be quicker going through his progressions.  And I think that’s something that you can teach a young quarterback.”

 

“With Drake Maye, my worry is his footwork, and his quick pass completion percentage where he can get a little hairy with the football.  To me, that feels a lot tougher to fix something physical than something mental when you get to the NFL level.

 

This part is 100% dead wrong and the exact opposite is true.  If a dude is a slow processor who can't see the whole field, he is never going to fix that at the NFL level.  It's going to get worse.  Meanwhile it's very common for QB prospects to improve their mechanics when they get to the NFL.  Sam Howell greatly improved his footwork by the end of his first season in the NFL.  What didn't get better?  His ability to see the field and make quick, efficient decisions.

 

That doesn't even consider the fact that Drake Maye is superior to Jayden Daniels in the physical traits that don't change.  You either have elite arm talent or you don't, Drake Maye does and Jayden Daniels doesn't.  You either have an NFL body or you don't, Drake Maye does and Jayden Daniels doesn't.

[DogofWar1]

11 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

“It’s kind of the same thing I’ve been saying for a long time.  For me, I think Jayden Daniels needs to learn how to use the whole field and read the middle of the field a little bit more, maybe be quicker going through his progressions.  And I think that’s something that you can teach a young quarterback.”

 

“With Drake Maye, my worry is his footwork, and his quick pass completion percentage where he can get a little hairy with the football.  To me, that feels a lot tougher to fix something physical than something mental when you get to the NFL level.  And in the meantime, with Jayden Daniels, you have his elite athleticism that you can use to move him around the pocket.”

 

I'm just a nobody but I feel like the opposite is true.

 

If the mental game were easy then a lot more college QBs with great physical characteristics would make the leap.  How many one-read and run QBs never get beyond that.  Daniels is definitely NOT that but evolving ones game mentally feels not that easy.

 

Flip side the physical/mechanical game can be very tough to fix if your body isn't to the task (ie a 6'0" guy vs a 6'4" guy, or a noodle arm), but if you've got the physical characteristics to do it, then I feel like it's one of the higher probability things that can be fixed.  I won't say it's easy tho.

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

If we go Daniels and he busts while Maye flourishes, Peters evaluation skills can no longer be given the benefit of the doubt. I don’t believe the opposite is true either. 
 

 

Bobby Beathard engineered probably the single worst trade in the history of the NFL when he traded up 1 spot to get Ryan Leaf. Yes, that Bobby Beathard who is in the HOF for building the Redskin teams which won multiple SBs.  (And I credit him with all of them because Casserly is a know-nothing idiot who basically rode Beathard's team to a SB then screwed up the draft and FA for the next 10 years before he was fired, then screwed up the Texans before he was fired there.)

 

Should Beathard's evaluation skills been mocked thereafter?

 

The NFL is littered with good GMs who make a decision which doesn't work out with a QB.  The reason has less to do with the process and decision and more to do with bad luck.

 

You also have bad GMs who make bad decisions.  

 

But good GMs can make decisions which just don't work out.

 

And further, while I think this board might lean more Maye than Daniels, that clearly isn't the national perception.  The clear perception is Daniels is the favorite to get picked.  If Peters selects Maye, one of the major story lines will be why he flew in the face of public opinion.  

 

I actually think the riskier public perception pick is Maye than Daniels at the moment.  

2 hours ago, Llevron said:

Look at how many times Andy Reid picked the wrong guy (I give him all the credit). 

Did Any Reid ever pick the wrong guy?  When he was with the Eagles, they picked McNabb and went to 4 NFC Championships and a SB.  Then with the Chiefs he got Smith and then Mahomes?

 

Is there a big swing at QB I'm missing?  

 

You can't consider McNabb a failure.  He was here, but when he left the Eagles he was one of the top 3-4 QBs in franchise history, and maybe he best depending on your order...

[DogofWar1]

Pulling out the couch because It's LYING season.

 

 

 

[Llevron]

5 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I actually think the riskier public perception pick is Maye than Daniels at the moment.  

Did Any Reid ever pick the wrong guy?  When he was with the Eagles, they picked McNabb and went to 4 NFC Championships and a SB.  Then with the Chiefs he got Smith and then Mahomes?

 

Is there a big swing at QB I'm missing?  

 

You can't consider McNabb a failure.  He was here, but when he left the Eagles he was one of the top 3-4 QBs in franchise history, and maybe he best depending on your order...

 

Naw you are right and one of the other smart people here corrected me on this already. I think I was thinking No Mahomes = fail 

 

Which is obviously stupid for many reasons. 

1 minute ago, DogofWar1 said:

Pulling out the couch because It's LYING season.

 

 

 

 

We just got this exact same rumor with a different name lol 

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep Maye is a consensus QB2 highly regarded prospect and has been for multiple years. If you pass on him and he succeeds, your guy has to be at least as good or youre IMMEDIATELY on the hot seat.

I don't think there's anything remotely consensus about Maye being the #2 overall pick.  Almost all the beat reporters are saying they are hearing Daniels is higher on most coach's lists than Maye, most of the draftniks have Daniels as the #2 QB on their big boards, and most mocks have Daniels mocked to us.

 

Schefter said he has been hearing more about Daniels than Maye. 

 

If anything, I think public sentiment is more Daniels than Maye.  Is that a smoke screen?  Maybe.  But it's pretty deafening, at least to the point where I don't think you could consider Maye a consensus #2 pick 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Speaking of board takes on players.  Remember Atlanta fan insisting on Greg McEroy will be the next stud NFL QB?  😎  Obviously, that didn't happen.  He is not a bad college analyist though albiet I disagree with some of his QB takes

 

I watched it.  I like McElroy, he's a fantastic broadcaster.  But I don't think he's taking this analysis that seriously and doesn't really have skin in the game.  He contradicts himself in a pretty glaring way too about the point about playing with elite talent, kind of recognizes it after he's done it, and then just ignores the contradiction.  He also doesn't seem to realize his point about playing hero ball applies to Maye just as much, if not more than it does with the other two kids, who played for great coaches on rosters loaded with NFL talent.  My sense is that he doesn't have as good a read on Maye as the other two.  I also think he kind of buried the lede about Drake having special leadership traits and huddle presence.  How does he not realize how special that is when he's experienced it up close?  That special sauce is why Dak Prescott took over the Cowboys as a freaking fourth round comp pick.  That is the stuff franchise QBs are made of.

[ExoDus84]

15 minutes ago, Llevron said:

We just got this exact same rumor with a different name lol 

 

Lot of rumors floating around. This one is pretty concerning.

 

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We are losing the twitter fan polls now 😢

We…???

[SoCalSkins]

23 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Bobby Beathard engineered probably the single worst trade in the history of the NFL when he traded up 1 spot to get Ryan Leaf. Yes, that Bobby Beathard who is in the HOF for building the Redskin teams which won multiple SBs.  (And I credit him with all of them because Casserly is a know-nothing idiot who basically rode Beathard's team to a SB then screwed up the draft and FA for the next 10 years before he was fired, then screwed up the Texans before he was fired there.)

 

Should Beathard's evaluation skills been mocked thereafter?

 

The NFL is littered with good GMs who make a decision which doesn't work out with a QB.  The reason has less to do with the process and decision and more to do with bad luck.

 

You also have bad GMs who make bad decisions.  

 

But good GMs can make decisions which just don't work out.

 

And further, while I think this board might lean more Maye than Daniels, that clearly isn't the national perception.  The clear perception is Daniels is the favorite to get picked.  If Peters selects Maye, one of the major story lines will be why he flew in the face of public opinion.  

 

I actually think the riskier public perception pick is Maye than Daniels at the moment.  

Did Any Reid ever pick the wrong guy?  When he was with the Eagles, they picked McNabb and went to 4 NFC Championships and a SB.  Then with the Chiefs he got Smith and then Mahomes?

 

Is there a big swing at QB I'm missing?  

 

You can't consider McNabb a failure.  He was here, but when he left the Eagles he was one of the top 3-4 QBs in franchise history, and maybe he best depending on your order...

Bobby Beathard was already a legend at that point. This is Adam Peters first pick ever.  Leaf was going 2nd overall regardless in that draft. Peyton went 1. No other QB was taken until nearly the end of round 2. If Bobby moved up to 2 and took Charlie Batch, you could question it given where he was drafted. Leaf was a horrible bust but almost everyone had him a tad behind Peyton but not by much.
 

Maye is the consensus pick after Caleb and has been for 2 years. You deviate from that, there is a price to pay if you are new to the game. That’s a simple fact. I absolutely think Peters is drafting Maye. This is merely a hypothetical to pass time regardless. 

[Bantu]

What the heck does meetings with Commanders didn't go well mean? Why don't they just preface the tweet with, we don't know anything, but....

[SoCalSkins]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We are losing the twitter fan polls now 😢. weeks ago Maye was winning in these fan polls.  Not that it matters but a little surprised by the shift.

 

 

A lot of fans from other teams are following Ben who works for the Athletic to see if they can understand what Washington is doing at 2. Patriots, Vikings and Giants fans predominantly want us to take Daniels so they can draft Maye. That’s a factor in this poll.

[mistertim]

44 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

This part is 100% dead wrong and the exact opposite is true.  If a dude is a slow processor who can't see the whole field, he is never going to fix that at the NFL level.  It's going to get worse.  Meanwhile it's very common for QB prospects to improve their mechanics when they get to the NFL.  Sam Howell greatly improved his footwork by the end of his first season in the NFL.  What didn't get better?  His ability to see the field and make quick, efficient decisions.

 

That doesn't even consider the fact that Drake Maye is superior to Jayden Daniels in the physical traits that don't change.  You either have elite arm talent or you don't, Drake Maye does and Jayden Daniels doesn't.  You either have an NFL body or you don't, Drake Maye does and Jayden Daniels doesn't.

 

This is what I was thinking as well. I agree that it's likely the opposite. Fixing a purely physical thing is just a matter of drilling over and over until it's muscle memory. Something mental is going to take a much more broad effort because it's basically changing a person's thinking process.

[DogofWar1]

3 minutes ago, Bantu said:

What the heck does meetings with Commanders didn't go well mean? Why don't they just preface the tweet with, we don't know anything, but....

 

I am in the don't trust and verify camp but I could see Jayden's seemingly chill attitude being a bit of a turn off if it led to him seeming semi-disinterested in changing his play style.

 

Or more hilariously GMAP yelling at him to get on a scale and Jayden running away screaming NO

 

 

[Warhead36]

I don't even think we've had our top 30 visit with Penix yet have we?