The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Conn]

6 hours ago, skinsarethebest said:

and this is the same kind of logical fallacy that has people pining for Sam Howell…. Trying to prove a positive point with a negative…

 

”well, he didn’t have X so he could have been good if he did have X”….  That’s the most that can be proven: that the person COULD have been good.   Yet people mistakenly convert that COULD to an IS.  The reality is that even if he had a solid O Line and strong supporting cast, he also might not have had success.  We just do not know.

 

And yet they claim the evidence of Maye succeeding in the pros is somehow greater than the evidence supporting those who actually did succeed (even if it was with what some might say is a better O line and better receivers and supporting cast).
 

A lot of Commanders fans did it with Howell and now seem like they are doing it with Maye.   

 

In other words, if Maye had the same O line and receivers as Daniels, would he have put up the same numbers and won the Heisman?  We simply do not know.  It is by nature impossible to know.

 

But yet we want to say that non-knowledge is stronger evidence of his likelihood to succeed than the fact that Daniels actually DID succeed with the O line and supporting cast that he did have.  

 

Doesn’t make sense speaking purely from the point of view of logic.

Welcome to the entire nature of evaluation and projection. This whole thing would be a lot easier if it was as simple as “big numbers at big school go vroom” 

[mistertim]

@SkinsinparadiseGreat write up. I'm curious as to what you saw in Maye that might indicate the issue with those 1st level throws. When I watch his cutups/games/tape I noticed the inconsistent footwork that some have talked about. I also notice that he tends to let his footwork and mechanics get really sloppy. He'll turn a one step drop on a swing pass or slant into a 1.5 step drop with a tiny hitch. He'll have a really narrow base and mostly arm it. Sometimes his lower body jus didn't match up with what his upper body was doing.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

I'll add about Daniels if he can stay healthy which is a big if, rewatching him I'll double down more than he's not Fields part 2.  I think he will be successful.  He has to learn not to hang on too long to his first read but I think he can conquer that because at times he's decisive.  He's very decisive and quick with first level throws.  Maye is too but Maye is a bit erratic with those throws whereas Daniels isn't.  But like I said i like Maye over him -- because of age, arsenal of throws, arm strength.  But if Daniels can protect himself, I think he likely works in the NFL.

 

His running is the best I've seen in a college QB in eons.   You can make a living on first level throws.  See Alex Smith.  And he throws a really good fade -- no wonder Jay Gruden loves him .  He throws a good deep ball but IMO its a tade overrated.   Sometimes they are underthrown.  He puts a lot of air-arc on the ball which is good when you have good Wrs who are going to win one on one but not so much when you don't.  I actually like Maye's deep ball better.

 

But if Daniels, i think I'd want a physical WR who can make deep catches like Legette.  I'd kill for Brian Thomas on that front but he'd be gone. Burton would be perfect IMO but he's a bit of a headcase.  Roll of the dice players going later in the draft: Baker

 

If its Maye, I'd want high floor 2nd level WR killers -- McConkey, Wilson, Pearsall.    Roll of the dice players going later in the draft: Thrash, McMillian.

 

About 2.5 weeks out, I am riding on wanting Maye to the end.  But I am not one of the no way we can take Daniels guys here.  As for what they do?  50-50 hard call.  So much mixed rumors.

 

Tough for me to get likewised jazzed about McCarthy and i won't take a rumor about him seriously until I hear it from a reporter with some reputation of guessing right.  And that hasn't happened yet but there is still time for that to unfold.

[DWinzit]

SIP, I like all the receivers you discuss. When it comes to Leggette, you're not as high on him (or his style of receiver) if we take Maye. I understand the basics on your thoughts but it seems to me that he'd be solid for Daniels as well. Gives him a different option than the ones we have. The others feel a little more of the same type

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

He wants the Raiders, apparently. Not surprising, and it doesn’t really matter, but not a good move to say it publicly.

 

 

Hmmm...that is disconcerting.

 

Every player has a preference, they're human beings, after all, but to actually go public when you could possibly be the second overall pick is next level stuff.

 

UNLIKELY, BUT STILL POSSIBLE HYPOTHETICAL FOLLOWS...

 

Suppose it turns out that Daniels is our preferred choice at two, and he makes it clear to AP and DQ that he doesn't want to play here during his visit, or even worse, he refuses to come here for his visit and his agent tells us to kick rocks.

 

Do we:

 

1. Go ahead and draft him.

2. Draft someone else at 2.

3. Try to make a 3 team trade that somehow gets us Maye or JJ, plus some picks, while the Raiders get Daniels and the third team gets picks.

 

 

Edited April 8 by CommanderInTheRye

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, mistertim said:

@SkinsinparadiseGreat write up. I'm curious as to what you saw in Maye that might indicate the issue with those 1st level throws. When I watch his cutups/games/tape I noticed the inconsistent footwork that some have talked about. I also notice that he tends to let his footwork and mechanics get really sloppy. He'll turn a one step drop on a swing pass or slant into a 1.5 step drop with a tiny hitch. He'll have a really narrow base and mostly arm it. Sometimes his lower body jus didn't match up with what his upper body was doing.

 

He seems to me to rush it and in turn his lower body doesn't match his upper body.  He seems to focus on getting the ball out quick because it was I gather designed to go that way via his first read or he senses pressure-blitzes and wants to hit his hot route.  It comes off like he's so interested in getting rid of the ball that it overrides good mechanics.

 

I'll give this to Daniels some say he plays really relaxed as for his composure during the game.  Maybe that helps him on that front.  Not saying Maye isn't composed but maybe he's bit too frantic on the idea of dumping the ball off in the flat.  If he can fix this IMO, Maye can conquer a lot.  Because when you hear the criticisms its almost always about missing easy layups.  And to me that's just these throws in the flat.

 

Going to camps over the years, Jay's camps really emphazied these throws and big time.  Over and over again it was drilled.  Didn't see the same with Rivera's staff neither Turner or Bieniemy.   But in Jay's camp they'd have many drills where they would throw balls in the flat emphasizing hitting the WR in stride.

 

And they'd practice it in scrimmages too.  I recall one camp (before Thompson exploded in this front) saw Kirk throw so many balls to Thompson in the flat that i recall commenting either this is going to be a staple in their offense or maybe there is something am missing to the plot. But it indeed became part of that offense.

Edited April 8 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

SIP, I like all the receivers you discuss. When it comes to Leggette, you're not as high on him (or his style of receiver) if we take Maye. I understand the basics on your thoughts but it seems to me that he'd be solid for Daniels as well. Gives him a different option than the ones we have. The others feel a little more of the same type

 

I think those receivers could work with either QB. 

 

But when I think of Maye I think of dudes on the 2nd level -- or deep crossers, etc.  Guys that seperate well in between the numbers.  And I love McConkey, Wilson, Pearsall on that front.  But Maye throws a nice deep ball, too.

 

When I think of Daniels, especially after rewatching him yesterday, I like guys who make deep plays outside the numbers.  Corner routes.  Though he had his share of posts too.  Guys who will make plays deep and beat their defender on one and ones.  Guys who are good at tracking the ball because he gives good air to his deep throws.  Desean Jackson back in his day.

 

Daniels for whatever reason doesn't have the guts to make 2nd level contested throws.  But he's willing to launch the deep ball and take his chances on that front so I'd want to add a horse who majors in that as a WR.

 

But Legette to me feels tailor made for Daniels.  He's sort of a poor man's Brian Thomas IMO, and not that poor.  He's not the most refined route runner.  But if you throw it long, he will outrun and get by a defender for a deep play, make a contested catch. Plenty of out routes.  The way he makes some of his big plays reminds me some of Thomas in particular.

 

If Ja'Lynn Polk ran faster he'd be on that list for me, too.  Same type.  Physical. Makes big plays.  Contested catches.  But am having a hard time getting over the 4.5 which bothers me if I am looking for a deep threat. But if he's in the third round, I'd dig it.

Edited April 8 by Skinsinparadise

[DogofWar1]

8 hours ago, Kalu44 said:

General question here. Does Maye go through his progressions well? I keep hearing that Daniels does (and see it on film reviews), but don’t think I’ve heard that about Maye specifically. It wouldn’t shocked me if I missed it though. 

 

I think so, generally speaking.

 

It's only one play but as an example you can see how he does it: 

 

 

He does sometimes look like he's staring at one guy too long but it's hard to know if that's the "wrong" decision too, since sometimes you can tell that the other options are covered so it's basically him checking to see if like "X safety takes a wrong step" so he can get it to the guy he's zero'd in on.  He does seem to do a good job reading defenses before and after the snap most of the time, at least at the college level of things, so I sometimes wonder if he mentally sees things that eliminate certain routes, resulting in us getting less head movement that is the telltale sign of going through progressions.

 

Overall, I think he does it well; there's room for improvement like with anyone, there are definitely plays he should progress back to X side and doesn't, but overall he does very well.

[HTTRDynasty]

32 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Hmmm...that is disconcerting.

 

Every player has a preference, they're human beings, after all, but to actually go public when you could possibly be the second overall pick is next level stuff.

 

UNLIKELY, BUT STILL POSSIBLE HYPOTHETICAL FOLLOWS...

 

Suppose it turns out that Daniels is our preferred choice at two, and he makes it clear to AP and DQ that he doesn't want to play here during his visit, or even worse, he refuses to come here for his visit and his agent tells us to kick rocks.

 

Do we:

 

1. Go ahead and draft him.

2. Draft someone else at 2.

3. Try to make a 3 team trade that somehow gets us Maye or JJ, plus some picks, while the Raiders get Daniels and the third team gets picks.

 

 

I don’t think we should draft him at #2 regardless. Just take Maye. 
 

But if he’s really our preferred choice, I wouldn’t let his social media comments stop me from drafting him.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

44 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

3. Try to make a 3 team trade that somehow gets us Maye or JJ, plus some picks, while the Raiders get Daniels and the third team gets picks.

 

 

 

1. He won't make that declaration. 

2. Option 3. But, to be clear, I do not know how Option 3 would play out for the simple fact that the Raiders don't have excess draft capital that would really make the move work?

 

Some ideas:

Raiders get: #2

Commanders get: #3, #44 (from LV)

Pats get: #13, #77, 2025 1st, 2026 1st

 

Guess you could get whacky and go:

Raiders get: #2

Commanders get: #3, #13

Patriots get: #36, #44, #77, 2025 1st, 2026 1st

 

So Commanders give up #2 and #36 and get #3 and #13

Pats give up #3 and get #36, #44, #77 and a 2025 1st and 2026 1st

Raiders give up #13, #44, #77 and 2 future 1's

 

This scenario may make the most sense actually. The Patriots would give up access to the QB of the future. And if you're gonna go down, why not go way down, and just load up on mid-round picks and future capital? Idk. If I were the Pats I think I would prefer scenario #2. You'd have:

 

2nd: #34, #36, #44

3rd: #68, #77

4th: #103

Future: 2 1sts in 2025 and 2026 respectively.

Edited April 8 by JamesMadisonSkins

[JamesMadisonSkins]

12 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Raiders get: #2

Commanders get: #3, #13

Patriots get: #36, #44, #77, 2025 1st, 2026 1st

 

So Commanders give up #2 and #36 and get #3 and #13

Pats give up #3 and get #36, #44, #77 and a 2025 1st and 2026 1st

Raiders give up #13, #44, #77 and 2 future 1's

 

 

Per the Rich Hill Trade Chart:

Pats give up #3 (514 pts.) for #36 (166), #44 (135), #77 (60), 2025 1st (121), 2026 1st (56) --- valuing the future 1sts as mid 2nd and mid 3rd value, which seems to be how people assess the value of those picks, though I say they should be worth more. Either way, we'll go conservative. Pats would get back 538 points in exchange for 514

 

Washington gives up #2 (717) and #36 (166) for #3 (514) and #13 (336) ... so we actually lose on value here ... we may need more because we trade away 883 and get back 850

 

Las Vegas gives up #13 (336), #44 (135), #77 (60), 2025 1st (121) 2026 1st (56) for #2 (717) ... So they trade away 708 and get back 717

 

To make this trade more even ... I think Vegas would need to throw in a 2025 2nd (56) to get Washington to 906 back for 883. 

 

Many ways to skin that hypothetical cat ... it's a pipe dream 3 way trade that I just don't see happening, but worth penciling out I guess.

Edited April 8 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Conn]

I’d say if you were to take anything (and I don’t think we really should) from Daniels’ open Raiders pining it would simply be that he and his camp don’t feel sure that we’re taking him with our pick at 2. And the only way you’re going to see potential leaks from this new FO operation is if the leaks come from the prospects’ camps, based on the perceptions of those prospects and their people. 

 

So the only possible takeaway here is that Daniels, at least, doesn’t feel at this moment that he’s any sort of lock at #2. Or he’d shut up about the Raiders bc he’d think he knows his future is locked in. It’s clearly not. 

Edited April 8 by Conn

[jg77]

7 hours ago, skinsarethebest said:

and this is the same kind of logical fallacy that has people pining for Sam Howell…. Trying to prove a positive point with a negative…

 

”well, he didn’t have X so he could have been good if he did have X”….  That’s the most that can be proven: that the person COULD have been good.   Yet people mistakenly convert that COULD to an IS.  The reality is that even if he had a solid O Line and strong supporting cast, he also might not have had success.  We just do not know.

 

And yet they claim the evidence of Maye succeeding in the pros is somehow greater than the evidence supporting those who actually did succeed (even if it was with what some might say is a better O line and better receivers and supporting cast).
 

A lot of Commanders fans did it with Howell and now seem like they are doing it with Maye.   

 

In other words, if Maye had the same O line and receivers as Daniels, would he have put up the same numbers and won the Heisman?  We simply do not know.  It is by nature impossible to know.

 

But yet we want to say that non-knowledge is stronger evidence of his likelihood to succeed than the fact that Daniels actually DID succeed with the O line and supporting cast that he did have.  

 

Doesn’t make sense speaking purely from the point of view of logic.

Well said.

[jg77]

2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

He wants the Raiders, apparently. Not surprising, and it doesn’t really matter, but not a good move to say it publicly. Gonna have to try to find the clip later. 
 

Also, lol at BTJ’s reaction to joining the Bills. My guess is it’s due to living in Buffalo. 
 

 

 

He didn't say anything lol. Stop falling for this type of stuff 

[rockluc]

16 hours ago, Llevron said:

Do you y’all think we will ever get a real answer from the horses mouth (GMAP) about why he picked whoever it is he picks? No matter who it is I expect that we will never have that level of access….and we will have to trust him. 
 

And I don’t think any of of really trust him. Maybe I’m projecting though. 

If GMAP nails the pick then yeah. He’ll probably provide some insight into the thought process. If he missed at 2nd overall then AP will probably keep that thought process to himself. 😂 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

WAS gets: #3 (NE), #44 (LV), #77 (LV), '26 1st (LV) = 765

WAS gives: #2, #100 = 752

 

NE gets: #13 (LV), #100 (WAS), '25 1st (LV), '25 2nd (LV) = 548

NE gives: #3 = 514

 

LV gets: #2 (WAS) = 717

LV gives: #13, #44, #77, '25 1st, '25 2nd, '26 1st = 764

 

That's the closest I can make it a win for all parties. I just don't know if LV would part with that much draft capital lol

 

You could simplify things and drop the '25 2nd from LV and #100 for WAS

 

WAS gets: #3 (NE), #44 (LV), #77 (LV) = 709

Was gives: #2 = 717

 

NE gets: #13 (LV), '25 1st (LV), '26 1st (LV) = 513

NE gives: #3 = 514

 

LV gets: #2 (WAS) = 717

LV gives: #13, #44, #77, '25 1st, '26 1st = 708

 

I could see LV parting with 1/2/3/1/1 to get Daniels. I could see the Pats going from #3 to #13 and adding 2 future 1sts. I could see WAS going from #2 to #3 and adding a 2nd and 3rd in the process, assuming they get their guy in Maye at #3 anyway. But that's ... anyway it's a lot of assumptions and I don't see how a trade like this goes down.

 

Edited April 8 by JamesMadisonSkins

[CommanderInTheRye]

33 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I don’t think we should draft him at #2 regardless. Just take Maye. 
 

But if he’s really our preferred choice, I wouldn’t let his social media comments stop me from drafting him.  

 

 

I think this is the stance that I would take given the constraints of my hypothetical.

 

As a matter of principle it makes sense, but it also makes sense to do this because Peters is a first year GM and he needs to establish dominance or risk being seen as weak under fire.

 

If he caves in to an agent's  demands, the very first time he's hit with real adversity, there's a serious risk that other agents will go after him in the future.

 

 

[Llevron]

This is all because of EBs son's friend's homie again isnt it? 

 

We gotta catch that guy

[mistertim]

Thanks @CommanderInTheRye, you managed to get @JamesMadisonSkinsback into his true obsession: trading back. And now we all have to bear the brunt of a ton of completely nonsensical trade scenario posts. I will not forgive you for this.    

[SkinsFTW]

3 hours ago, skinsarethebest said:

yes, but my point is that Maye didn’t even have those stellar college numbers to point to, so why don’t we have even more skepticism towards him, rather than less…?

 

Seems like he’s being given way too much benefit of the doubt, whereas conversely, for a QB who actually did put up those good numbers, there’s a tendency to dismiss them out of hand.

 

This isn't exactly a new trend. Look up Eli Mannings college stats. Or Josh Allen, or Bledsoe. Then compare them to Haskins, Manziel and RG3, or even Andre Ware vs Jeff George in 1990. College stats don't mean much when scouting QBs.

 

Haskins, Klingler, Brennan, all had amazing college stats. Kliff Kingsbury threw more TDS than Patrick Mahomes did at Texas Tech. How'd they miss out on that guy?

 

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

He wants the Raiders

Hmmm, Makes me wonder if the Adam Peters stuff was legit?

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

This isn't exactly a new trend. Look up Eli Mannings college stats. Or Josh Allen, or Bledsoe. Then compare them to Haskins, Manziel and RG3, or even Andre Ware vs Jeff George in 1990. College stats don't mean much when scouting QBs.

 

Haskins, Klingler, Brennan, all had amazing college stats. Kliff Kingsbury threw more TDS than Patrick Mahomes did at Texas Tech. How'd they miss out on that guy?

 

 

Also, before someone comes in and says "But Daniels was in the SEC!" there have been plenty of SEC QBs who have put up great stats in college but did nothing in the NFL, with the most notable recent ones being Mac Jones and Bryce Young. Both of them put up video game stats in college but are either busts (Jones) or possibly heading towards bust (Young).

 

Stats should always be taken with a grain of salt. Especially vs actual film study.

[clskinsfan]

10 hours ago, Kalu44 said:

General question here. Does Maye go through his progressions well? I keep hearing that Daniels does (and see it on film reviews), but don’t think I’ve heard that about Maye specifically. It wouldn’t shocked me if I missed it though. 

Maye does go through progressions well. The problem is there were way too many times that after going through his progressions there was no one even close to open. Then hero ball came in. Another thing I noticed this year is once Tez became eligible he would focus on him as his first read for way too long. Because he literally had no one else to throw too. 

[Tress Is The Way]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Also, before someone comes in and says "But Daniels was in the SEC!" there have been plenty of SEC QBs who have put up great stats in college but did nothing in the NFL, with the most notable recent ones being Mac Jones and Bryce Young. Both of them put up video game stats in college but are either busts (Jones) or possibly heading towards bust (Young).

 

Stats should always be taken with a grain of salt. Especially vs actual film study.

Matt Leinart rings a bell, talk about a big bust.

[clskinsfan]

9 hours ago, Conn said:

So Hoge didn’t like Rodgers, Mahomes, or Herbert? He doesn’t like toolsy guys who can break the rules, makes sense if he’s consistent in that regard. Probably didn’t like Josh Allen or even Can Newton then? Assume he didn’t like Anthony Richardson either. 

Yeah. He apparently doesnt like guys with prototypical size and cannon arms. IT is what it is.