The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, NYSkins21 said:

That’s where I’m at with Howell. I like Howell a lot. I think he could be a very good QB in this league. Not great but very good. But by the time we right this ship and give him the protection he needs, we lose his rookie contract and will need to pay him.

 

With new ownership, front office and coaching in place, I’d like to see us blow up what we have.

 

Draft a QB with this years first. Whether it be Williams, Maye or Daniels. See what kind of interest there is in trading for Howell. Build the OL this year and next through the draft/FA and let them develop together.

 

I feel we missed the boat with Howell. Blow this up and restart. From a PR standpoint, you have to think now would be good time for it and ownership has to asking within… “How much worse can it get?”.

 

I get both schools of thought on this.  My argument is with whomever says the choice is clear and easy or Howell deserves another year and lets revisit at 2025.   I don't think 2025 is looking the same right now as 2024 and we don't know if we are picking that high that year.  Also, for me its an X factor that whatever QB we pass over at our pick is likely playing against us in our division if the Giants pick after us.    To me the decision needs to be made now, versus punting to 2025.

 

Not saying it shouldn't be Howell.  But the decision I think isn't super obvious, it deserves some time and attention

27 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Absolutely and he will.  He has too.  I think in the end and both of us do, Howell has two cheap years on his contract.  I think they go with him and they should take a QB, you know I like Pratt, semi early (2nd 3rd round pick).  You have seen my mock with two TEs and we need help at ILB and both that I have listed are multi-LB types.  Best options in FA and they aren't great right now is secondary from what I see but I could be mssing something, SIP. 

 

FA looks good to me at safety, not sure about Cb and we've got burned with FA CBs for eons.  LB not bad.  Interior O line, so so.  WR good.   Edge OK.

[BrentMeisterGeneral]

Another thing to consider, how likely is it if we draft O line that we will be back in the top 5 of the draft any time soon? Entirely possible then that Howell might still be ok but we come in at around 10 - 15 next year and well out of range for a QB and the show goes on and on and on.

[Skinsinparadise]

on the pick from yesterday

 

 

[Warhead36]

That's on the coaches to spot these things in practice/film review and fix it up.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

That's on the coaches to spot these things in practice/film review and fix it up.

 

I recall Wade Phillips noticing just from watching the game on TV that Whylie telegraphs run or pass based on his stance.  Apparently that point carries over.

[skinny21]

38 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I said this weeks ago, but it’s even more true today.  This team is horrendously hopeless and only going to get worse by the week and that’s playing out before our eyes.  I don’t think there is much we can learn about Howell that we don’t already know.  
 

And some really good defenses on tap.  

 

Howell’s been absolutely set up to fail this year, and that makes evaluation that much tougher.  I mean, I can’t think of a worse setup for a qb, let alone a young one.  Learning a new offense, with a 1st time play caller, behind a pretty terrible oline, no real TE to speak of, and receivers that appear to be struggling to get open.  And to cap it all, he’s tasked with trying to keep up with teams putting up a ton of points vs our sieve of a defense.

Just the psychological side of things - the hits, not being able to wait on intermediate/deep routes, defenses sitting on the short stuff, teams able to pressure with 4, etc.  I’m legitimately not sure that David Carr had a worse situation…

 

While I’d like to see Howell given a chance with better (or actual) supporting cast around him, I also wouldn’t be surprised if the damage is done and he can’t truly come back from this (though I do think he’s shown remarkable resiliency).  Which of course makes one wonder if drafting a guy in the 1st is the smarter/safer bet.  Love Howell’s tools, mentality and drive, but the new staff is going to be dealing with a pretty massive unknown quantity…

 

Sigh.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 hour ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Riddick wasn't the only one banging that drum.  It was Kansas City's worst kept secret.  Everyone (outside of some Bieniemy truthers on social media) knew that Reid and Mahomes were the reason for Kansas City's success on offense.  But you had people in the media like Riddick practically having aneurisms week in and week out about what more did Bieniemy have to do to become a head coach since he's proven himself in Kansas City.  

In fairness, it’s a given in the NFL that if you are an OC for any team with a great offense, you are going to get a promotion elsewhere.  We see it happen all the time and guys fail just like EB has.  Sometimes they don’t.  I think it’s fair given the history of the league to question why EB was looked over so many times when a guy like Hackett secured a head coaching job, that was clearly way over his head.

 

That said, EB has done himself or those standing on the table for him with his performance.

 

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

A quick look around the league tells me that that is not always the case.

 

Here is the list of Super Bowl winning head coaches for the last 20 years:

 

Andy Reid

Sean McVay

Bruce Arians

Bill Belichick

Doug Pederson

Gary Kubiak

Pete Carroll

John Harbaugh

Tom Coughlin

Mike McCarthy

Sean Payton

Mike Tomlin

Tony Dungy

Bill Cowher

Jon Gruden

 

Of that list, every coach except for Bill Cowher, Bruce Arians, Sean McVay, and Andy Reid did it with the QB they either acquired or already had in their first year.  Looking at the four who didn't:

 

- Cowher made a SB in the 90's and worked for the most stable and patient and consistently excellent franchise in the NFL.  They gave him a decade to figure it out at QB.

- Arians got Tom Brady in year two.

- McVay bought himself enough time to upgrade to Stafford in year five by getting to a previous SB with the pretty good QB he already had year one.

- Andy Reid had a 12 win team with Alex Smith and was able to hang on until he upgraded to Patrick Mahomes in year four.

 

We aren't the Steelers.  Tom Brady isn't coming to the rescue of our next regime.  So do we think we're gonna find the next Patrick Mahomes?  Do we think the next regime is gonna ride Sam Howell to a Super Bowl and buy enough time to find an upgrade down the road?  If the answer is no, then yeah, it's always better to get your QB year one of a new regime.

[Going Commando]

My bad, I missed Pete Carroll.  He didn't get Russell Wilson until year 3.  But add him to the list of exceptions that I would never bet my job on if I were a GM or HC taking over a franchise in my first year.

[Warhead36]

You win by having a good QB/Coach combo and the earlier you establish that combo the better. Do you HAVE to do it in year 1? No. But the earlier you do it, the earlier you get your window open. Until you get that combo figured out, you're a rudderless ship.

[MartinC]

31 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I recall Wade Phillips noticing just from watching the game on TV that Whylie telegraphs run or pass based on his stance.  Apparently that point carries over.

Also Wylies job on that screen is to cut the end. Make him get his hands down. I don’t think he was out of his stance when the pick happened.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

18 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Here is the list of Super Bowl winning head coaches for the last 20 years:

 

Andy Reid

Sean McVay

Bruce Arians

Bill Belichick

Doug Pederson

Gary Kubiak

Pete Carroll

John Harbaugh

Tom Coughlin

Mike McCarthy

Sean Payton

Mike Tomlin

Tony Dungy

Bill Cowher

Jon Gruden

 

Of that list, every coach except for Bill Cowher, Bruce Arians, Sean McVay, and Andy Reid did it with the QB they either acquired or already had in their first year.  Looking at the four who didn't:

Well sure, if you are including coaches who kept the quarterback that the team already had… I’m good with that. I thought you were offering that as a justification for why we need to dump Sam and let the new coach and GM get a brand new quarterback.

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

3 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Jordan Love was a 1st round pick.  They generally get more rope.  This year is the audition for Howell to prove he is worth building around.  There's still 4 games left but it ain't looking good.  The new GM should not be tied down to developing Howell.

The round someone was picked shouldn't matter. I still think Howell has shown promise several times this year.

[Going Commando]

1 minute ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Well sure, if you are including coaches who kept the quarterback that the team already had… I’m good with that. I thought you were offering that as a justification for why we need to dump Sam and let the new coach and GM get a brand new quarterback.

 

If we pick Sam, then we need to commit to the decision and not waffle.  And in the scenario that we punt on the QB situation, we have a huge decision to make with him coming up at the end of 2024.

 

I wouldn't bet my job on a one year audition for Sam Howell if I were the new GM.  If the new GM wants to do that, so be it.  But if he does that, Sam fails, and Drake Maye/Jayden Daniels/JJ McCarthy go on to be stars, then they're getting fired soon after and we're going through this again in four years.

 

I would clean slate this franchise year one if I were the new GM.  My job, HC, and QB all married together in year one.  If we finish in the top five, I'd trade Howell and pick a QB this year and then spend the rest of my time building the team around him.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

10 minutes ago, Professor_Nutter_Butter said:

The round someone was picked shouldn't matter. I still think Howell has shown promise several times this year.

It literally has to matter. There are financial implications tied directly to where someone is drafted. 

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

6 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

I wouldn't bet my job on a one year audition for Sam Howell if I were the new GM.  If the new GM wants to do that, so be it.  But if he does that, Sam fails, and Drake Maye/Jayden Daniels/JJ McCarthy go on to be stars, then they're getting fired soon after and we're going through this again in four years.

I can promise you that in 2025 there will be the next "can't miss" prospect to fixate on. There always is.

[Warhead36]

10 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

If we pick Sam, then we need to commit to the decision and not waffle.  And in the scenario that we punt on the QB situation, we have a huge decision to make with him coming up at the end of 2024.

 

I wouldn't bet my job on a one year audition for Sam Howell if I were the new GM.  If the new GM wants to do that, so be it.  But if he does that, Sam fails, and Drake Maye/Jayden Daniels/JJ McCarthy go on to be stars, then they're getting fired soon after and we're going through this again in four years.

 

I would clean slate this franchise year one if I were the new GM.  My job, HC, and QB all married together in year one.  If we finish in the top five, I'd trade Howell and pick a QB this year and then spend the rest of my time building the team around him.

That's honestly the cleanest and most elegant solution. And if we draft a guy and Howell plays well as a placeholder, we can always trade him and recoup a ton of value.

 

Personally I think Howell has already been beaten up too much this season. Damaged goods to an extent if you will. Its really really hard to revive careers in the NFL.

2 minutes ago, Professor_Nutter_Butter said:

I can promise you that in 2025 there will be the next "can't miss" prospect to fixate on. There always is.

But no guarantee we'll be in a position to get them.

 

Lets not make the same mistake we made in 2020.

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

3 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

It literally has to matter. There are financial implications tied directly to where someone is drafted. 

Does it, though? Do you really need five years to know if a player is good? The Bears are in hell right now trying to decide if Justin Fields is worth a big contract (he's not).

[Est.1974]

3 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

It literally has to matter. There are financial implications tied directly to where someone is drafted. 

I’d agree, especially a QB picked in the top 4 or 5 picks. That’s 35-40mil fully guaranteed straight away. I mean, in context it’s small change if it pays off but it would matter if we go that route. Howell is/was basically a free hit IMO.

[Est.1974]

12 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I wouldn't bet my job on a one year audition for Sam Howell if I were the new GM.  If the new GM wants to do that, so be it.  But if he does that, Sam fails, and Drake Maye/Jayden Daniels/JJ McCarthy go on to be stars, then they're getting fired soon after and we're going through this again in four years.

 

I would clean slate this franchise year one if I were the new GM.  My job, HC, and QB all married together in year one.  If we finish in the top five, I'd trade Howell and pick a QB this year and then spend the rest of my time building the team around him.

On balance, I think this is absolutely on point, maybe aside from trading Howell. That would depend on the offer being made. I like Howell personally, but yep, a new GM has to be brave to pass over a QB so high in the draft, year one of their tenure.  

[Warhead36]

If the Pats offered #2 for Howell and #4, would you take it?

 

I'd definitely think about it long and hard.

[NYSkins21]

10 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

If the Pats offered #2 for Howell and #4, would you take it?

 

I'd definitely think about it long and hard.

Without a doubt. Not even a second thought. Not that I think Maye or Williams would have better careers but mainly based on gaining the two years of rookie contract back to help rebuild this thing. I just wouldn’t know why the Pats would do it?

Edited December 4, 2023 by NYSkins21

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

10 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

If the Pats offered #2 for Howell and #4, would you take it?

 

I'd definitely think about it long and hard.

Without question lol. That would be a ridiculous trade for NE to make. 
 

They would then have 2 young QBs on their roster that they’d be unsure about extending in the next year or so. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93

[zCommander]

13 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

If the Pats offered #2 for Howell and #4, would you take it?

 

I'd definitely think about it long and hard.

 

That would be the most embarrassing thing they can do. They passed on Howell and selected Zappe only a few picks before we selected Howell.

 

Regardless, so you are also saying that Howell is worth a #2 then why not keep him instead of hoping his teammate from college can do better? Howell is still better than Maye though. 

[Tyler Spiers]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

And some really good defenses on tap.  

 

Howell’s been absolutely set up to fail this year, and that makes evaluation that much tougher.  I mean, I can’t think of a worse setup for a qb, let alone a young one.  Learning a new offense, with a 1st time play caller, behind a pretty terrible oline, no real TE to speak of, and receivers that appear to be struggling to get open.  And to cap it all, he’s tasked with trying to keep up with teams putting up a ton of points vs our sieve of a defense.

Just the psychological side of things - the hits, not being able to wait on intermediate/deep routes, defenses sitting on the short stuff, teams able to pressure with 4, etc.  I’m legitimately not sure that David Carr had a worse situation…

 

While I’d like to see Howell given a chance with better (or actual) supporting cast around him, I also wouldn’t be surprised if the damage is done and he can’t truly come back from this (though I do think he’s shown remarkable resiliency).  Which of course makes one wonder if drafting a guy in the 1st is the smarter/safer bet.  Love Howell’s tools, mentality and drive, but the new staff is going to be dealing with a pretty massive unknown quantity…

 

Sigh.

He can come back from it no problem, I think he's much tougher physically than David Carr so as long as he doesn't get a major injury, I think he'll be ready go next year for the new everything that he's going to get in a GM, coach, and added playmakers and protection. Getting another rookie will just exacerbate the no-protection, lack of supporting cast problem because you've spent your high draft pick on a QB. That QB would have to be a can't miss Lamar Jackson once in a lifetime guy if you were going to go that route. Other than that, Sam is the guy.