The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

55 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

If we pick Sam, then we need to commit to the decision and not waffle.  And in the scenario that we punt on the QB situation, we have a huge decision to make with him coming up at the end of 2024.

 

I wouldn't bet my job on a one year audition for Sam Howell if I were the new GM.  If the new GM wants to do that, so be it.  But if he does that, Sam fails, and Drake Maye/Jayden Daniels/JJ McCarthy go on to be stars, then they're getting fired soon after and we're going through this again in four years.

 

I would clean slate this franchise year one if I were the new GM.  My job, HC, and QB all married together in year one.  If we finish in the top five, I'd trade Howell and pick a QB this year and then spend the rest of my time building the team around him.

 

Standig and Sheehan just discussing this topic.  Sheehan asked Standig if he had to bet will they go Qb or not in the draft, he bet they'd go QB.  So did Sheehan.

 

Obviously we won't know until the new GM is hired.  But it feels like an interesting off season is afoot.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

I’ll take that bet

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

If we pick Sam, then we need to commit to the decision and not waffle.  And in the scenario that we punt on the QB situation, we have a huge decision to make with him coming up at the end of 2024.

 

I wouldn't bet my job on a one year audition for Sam Howell if I were the new GM.  If the new GM wants to do that, so be it.  But if he does that, Sam fails, and Drake Maye/Jayden Daniels/JJ McCarthy go on to be stars, then they're getting fired soon after and we're going through this again in four years.

 

I would clean slate this franchise year one if I were the new GM.  My job, HC, and QB all married together in year one.  If we finish in the top five, I'd trade Howell and pick a QB this year and then spend the rest of my time building the team around him.

That depends on your evaluation of the QBs coming out and, of course Howell. 
 

We are not getting Williams. Does a GM grade Maye significantly higher than the actual NFL film and production of Howell and what they see as his potential. That’s the decision they make the big bucks for and, to your point which will make our break them as the GM here. If they rate Maye much higher, sure go get him if you can. Or if not Maye, Penix or Daniel’s.

 

Im not sure I do, but what I think and $5 gets us a Latte. I think we end up going LT in the first and giving Howell another year - then the really big decision comes end of 24.

[The Consigliere]

15 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

To me my take on Sam and the QB situation.

 

A.  i think I've seen enough that he can be a good Qb in this league with the right support.

 

B.  I haven't seen enough where the ceiling is he's potentially a great QB.

 

C.  If the new GM sees any Qb at their draft spot as likely great and doesn't see Sam's ceiling as great, then take the QB.

 

D.  If the new GM likes Sam's ceiling as much or more than a Qb in that draft at their pick, stick with Sam.

 

I suspect they stick with Sam.  It might be interesting if the GM is lets say smitten with Daniels.  Daniels IMO might be seen as a high ceiling QB and he might be there at their pick.

 

I am not saying Sam doesn't have a high ceiling.  I just don't think i have a good feel for that.  But to my eyes, I am confident that he can be a good Qb in the league.

 

What's alarming to me is that I think I tend to agree w/your eval of Sam, but I tend to disagree w/you about what a new FO would do. About the only thing that makes me think they could simply pull the trigger on the best player on the board (Fashanu, Harrison Jr, Bowers, Alt, Edge?!?!) is the fact that several QB's that were going to make this top 40 plump with QB prospects appear to be headed back for 1 more year of college instead of declaring. Ewers, Sanders, and I think at least one other one I can't remember. So I think the fact that the QB class of '25 which was a bit thin, but featured at least one top guy, has gotten fattened by multiple guys with 1st round grades or close to it early this past fall suggests to me that you could at least make an argument, for going best available player, and then go back to QB in '25, if Howell busts with more help next year. I could see that. But it's also not at all difficult to see a new HC, and new FO not wanting to be graded on someone else's Quarterback prospect. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

If we somehow jettison Howell in favor of Bo Nix 😕.

 

Williams, Maye, potentially even Daniels…I get it.  Just say no to Bo.

[method man]

2 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

What's alarming to me is that I think I tend to agree w/your eval of Sam, but I tend to disagree w/you about what a new FO would do. About the only thing that makes me think they could simply pull the trigger on the best player on the board (Fashanu, Harrison Jr, Bowers, Alt, Edge?!?!) is the fact that several QB's that were going to make this top 40 plump with QB prospects appear to be headed back for 1 more year of college instead of declaring. Ewers, Sanders, and I think at least one other one I can't remember. So I think the fact that the QB class of '25 which was a bit thin, but featured at least one top guy, has gotten fattened by multiple guys with 1st round grades or close to it early this past fall suggests to me that you could at least make an argument, for going best available player, and then go back to QB in '25, if Howell busts with more help next year. I could see that. But it's also not at all difficult to see a new HC, and new FO not wanting to be graded on someone else's Quarterback prospect. 

Agreed. These guys will get lauded if they can move back and get a first in 2025 if Maye is not in reach at the pick. 

[The Consigliere]

12 hours ago, abdcskins said:

I have my doubts. I'll just put it like that.  Clearly talented, not sure he sees the field or makes the right decisions. 

 

Also clearly not getting enough help. I think he is worth another year. 

I tend to think one of two things happens. Either they go QB in round 1, or they take a speculative guy on day 2 of the draft to challenge him and if they don't like either guy, they use the 1st in '25 on a QB. I think the chances they go QB in round 1 are much higher than people on this board think simply because GM's and HC's want to fail or succeed with "their" guy, not someone else's, so if there's a guy worth our selection, I think it's 50/50 they pull the trigger. Howell can drop that to 35/65 or 40/60 with a great final stretch of games, but the team is clearly quitting around him and injured, so its gonna be hard for him to make that happen. 

[Warhead36]

12 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

If we somehow jettison Howell in favor of Bo Nix 😕.

 

Williams, Maye, potentially even Daniels…I get it.  Just say no to Bo.

Yeah I really only like Maye to be honest. But ultimately it doesn't matter what you or I like. What matters is that the entire regime be on the same page regarding whoever they want to be the QB.

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I’ll take that bet

 

I am not ready to take it until I learn about the GM and get a vibe about them or my cheat code which is what Keim is hearing.  But none of it matters yet.  We got to wait of course for the new regime.

 

If this was Bruce or Ron running the show I'd bet them forgoing QB considering context because its the play it medium move.  And they live to play it medium.   Not saying playing it medium is the wrong call here, I am not sure, that's up to the new GM clearly.

 

As for the new GM, depends to me of course on his evaluation of Howell and the QBs in this draft and is he more of a risk taker type?

 

If the Giants end up picking after us, I think its a very interesting scenario.  We are both trying to dig out of the dungeon at the same time.  The last time two teams in the division needed a QB at the same time was when they took Daniel Jones and we took Haskins.  The Giants were up first.  They got ridiculed in real time for the pick.  He clearly was overdrafted but he was better than Haskins.  Now if Haskins (RIP) was great, the Giants would have been blasted in a much greater way than they ultimately were.

 

As much as i like Howell, count me in the front of the line as to blasting the new GM if they pass on a QB if the Giants take that same QB and that QB ends up distinctly better than Howell.  Go with your evaluation, if you think Howell's upside is special and he's the dude, ride with him.  if you question it and like another Qb at your pick better, take that QB.   There is no out for me on either decision.  it has to work either way.  And the consequences of that decision is a bit more in your face than usual if the Giants end up picking just behind us and take the QB we skip -- or conversely we take the QB and that one sucks.  Either way.

 

And don't get me wrong it doesn't mean i think they should take a QB.  But if they don't do it and said QB kills it especially if he does it within the division -- its a fireable offense.  Rivera looks foolish explaining how he didn't dig Herbert or Tua in that draft but it would have been worse if Herbert was killing it for NY.   This time there is a good chance, if we skip a QB, that QB will be playing against us in our division and that dynamic makes it even more important to get this right.

 

[RWJ]

I'd be pissed and I try not to use this word that often if we drafted a QB with our 1st.  Fix the Oline.  JMO.  Carry on.  

[Skinsinparadise]

40 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

What's alarming to me is that I think I tend to agree w/your eval of Sam, but I tend to disagree w/you about what a new FO would do. About the only thing that makes me think they could simply pull the trigger on the best player on the board (Fashanu, Harrison Jr, Bowers, Alt, Edge?!?!) is the fact that several QB's that were going to make this top 40 plump with QB prospects appear to be headed back for 1 more year of college instead of declaring. Ewers, Sanders, and I think at least one other one I can't remember. So I think the fact that the QB class of '25 which was a bit thin, but featured at least one top guy, has gotten fattened by multiple guys with 1st round grades or close to it early this past fall suggests to me that you could at least make an argument, for going best available player, and then go back to QB in '25, if Howell busts with more help next year. I could see that. But it's also not at all difficult to see a new HC, and new FO not wanting to be graded on someone else's Quarterback prospect. 

 

I am not an Ewers guy.   Yawn for me.  Whose next after him Beck?  i like but don't love Sanders but will see after another year but I never expect to be picking first in the draft to take the top guy and unlike some I don't expect teams to just trade away that pick,  considering most of the time they don't.   So the teams can take the best QB and have a unique opportunity to do it, yet they just pass off the opportunity?  It doesn't happen that often for obvious reasons. 

 

The fact that right now Ewers is the 2nd QB considered in that draft makes the point for me.    Some other dude I guess will emerge.  But the idea that some say (not you) that every Qb class has some studs -- isn't always true especially if you go past the first Qb that never seems to be witin our reach.

 

I know I am the only one stressing this specific point on this thread but if I am the GM heck yeah I'd consider the idea that if I don't take that QB then a division rivals end up with that player.  I am not saying Daniels is Lamar but for just for arguments sake if Howell ends up peak Derek Carr at best and we pass over Daniels who ends up Lamar like for NY and ensures they are better than us for years to come -- our GM will have to wear that and no one will let go of it. 

 

So I do think that GM will feel a bit more under the gun to evaluate these 2024 QBs as opposed to punting it to 2025.  And that's before considering the crop is unlikely to be as good and we don't know we will suck and pick as high as this year.

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[method man]

My gut if the hire is Peters is that they will stick with Sam and look to upgrade everywhere. The path the 9ers have taken is building the best roster in football outside of the QB position. I believe Peters was one of the guys championing Lance so I wonder if he learned from that and if that has changed his perspective 

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Usually teams don't trade away chances to get QB prospects as ballyhooed as Drake and Caleb.    Among other examples, I recall Cincy had no price they were willing to listen to for Burrow, Jax for Lawrence, Indy for Luck, etc.

 

So i am not thinking at all at trading up.   that's a dance that typically doesn't happen.  We were lucky (or unlucky depending on the perspective) that the Rams were high on their first round pick QB from recent years in Bradford and hence were willing to trade their pick.  But usually that doesn't happen.  From what i heard, Bears are moving on from Fields.  NE have no one at QB and won't pass on the rare opportunity.  The Cards i think would go QB too but maybe they'd trade -- that's the one shot, I'd gather. 

 

My thoughts are squarely on picking 4th lets say and Daniels is there.   It would be such an interesting decision because there are some politics to it, too.

 

A.  Good chance if you pass on him, you will face him in your own division.

 

B.  The parallels to RG3 are a bit uncanny (without the baggage) and the idea that that's was the last time the fans were really engaged

 

C.  the damage that the Ravens and Lamar Jackson did to this franchise as to fans bolting to the Ravens.

 

I forgot what business-marketing guy talked about Lamar but it was interesting. They referenced studies had that Lamar sold more jerseys around the DMV including the city by a mile over any Washington player.  Lamar was a big hit with kids, etc.  And the marketing guy explained he's a key part in getting the next generation including around DC to become Ravens fans.  Lamar has been a PR boon for Baltimore and a disaster for this team. 

 

And look the politics of it is just gravy.  it's not the point in play at all.  But if this regime thinks this dude both is the better player AND would help corral fans-bring some 2012 level excitement, I think it would be tough to ignore.

 

And it might come off like I am advocating taking Daniels.  I am not.  i am just playing some devils advocate on two points.

 

A.  You got to consider it.

 

B.  There are likely some consequences for passing on him and being wrong about it that are uncommon compared to the typical season.

 

The big problem with Lamar, from what I recall, is that Kirk was leaving, we had no QB plan, we were run by morons, and we decided stealing Jonathan Allen about 10 slots after he should have gone was more important than rebuilding with a new young QB in a loaded (full of busts admittedly) class. That's the real bummer to me. Lamar had a lot of hype coming into that last year, fell off a bit and as a result fell to late 1st consideration at the time. I still remember Bill Simmons talking about how he and his dad collectively lost their ---- when they didn't draft him (brings a smile to my face thinking about it). 

 

I think they need to consider it too, but I don't think the rest matters. If you build a winner, fans will come, automatically. If you don't, they leave. You cannot run a shoddy, ---- show operation for thirty years with legit evil atop the pyramid for more than 20 of those years, and expect fans to stick around. The die hards will, the homers will follow winning teams, the kids will follow the ravens because they're local and more fun. If they want to rebuild equity in this team they simply need to build a functional franchise that wins and contends. They do that, the fans will come back, they've lost what they've lost to the Ravens, the fans that would come back, are fans that would follow anyone that's winning, so winning is the only way to peel off their transactional loyalty anyway. What's lost is lost. You've got to win them with a legit team, period. If Daniels does that? Okay, go after him, if Fashanu, or someone else makes more sense long term, do that. I get that theres's a ton of nuance up there, but we can't be making QB decisions with marketing in mind. Nothing markets like winning, we have to do that before anything else will come. A lot of people are in denial about how long this has been, we were already six years into a precipitous decline before Snyder even arrived, it hit 30 years this past fall. To dig out of that misery, you have to build, not market, build a winning team, then market around the winning. Right now this franchise is synonomous with incompetence, and evil, that's it. It's gonna take a lot to dig out of that. 

 

Oh, and the vibe I get from you is the same one I have, daniels scares me. I'm scared he'll hit and we wont pick him, and I'm scared he will miss and we will pick him.

 

Also worth noting:

First in, last out.

Mental Make up.

Worker

The talent to do all the throws

Processing.

 

Nail down everything. 

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I'd be pissed and I try not to use this word that often if we drafted a QB with our 1st.  Fix the Oline.  JMO.  Carry on.  

 

Does it matter to you if lets say the QB you pass over transforms the Giants into a contender and Howell's career ends up a peg or two below?

 

I am not saying that's how it goes down.  I don't know.  But i don't see how that's a variable to ignore as a possibility.   I'd want the GM to weigh that possibility.  Why don't you want them to even consider the thought?

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Oh, and the vibe I get from you is the same one I have, daniels scares me. I'm scared he'll hit and we wont pick him, and I'm scared he will miss and we will pick him.

 

 

It's a good way to frame it.  It's EXACTLY where I am at.

 

And I've talked about on other threads about having family-friends who are Giants fans.  I sat through with them a loss years ago in NY and also two loses at Fedex to them including this season.  If Daniels ends up a star for THEM it would knaw at me.  He feels boom-bust to me right now. 

 

But if its boom, wow.  And if he's actually facing us in our division.    It seems like some foreign theoritical debate right now.  But if it actually went down where lets say we pick 4th and the Giants pick 5th, we skip him and they take him, and he ends up great and in turn over time we learn that Howell's ceiling is good and he's not good enough to compete with teams with great QBs -- that dynamic would be much more in our face than the typical draft.

 

How often do we and a divison foe pick back to back (if it happens) with QBs in play?  To me its not just passing over the QB, but you will feel the pain in a bigger way if you play that dude twice a year within the division.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

Do we even know if the Giants would take Daniels? They're still on the hook for Daniel Jones for another year and their coach/GM might be in desperation/win now mode.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

How often do we and a divison foe pick back to back (if it happens) with QBs in play?  To me it’s not just passing over the QB, but you will feel the pain in a bigger way if you play that dude twice a year within the division.

Or is the curse of Dan Snyder too strong, and we select Daniels who busts and Howell somehow ends up with the Giants for a decade as a pretty good QB.

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, method man said:

My gut if the hire is Peters is that they will stick with Sam and look to upgrade everywhere. The path the 9ers have taken is building the best roster in football outside of the QB position. I believe Peters was one of the guys championing Lance so I wonder if he learned from that and if that has changed his perspective 

 

Maybe.  The Lance pick was a big swing.

 

I am not talking about trading up for Caleb, Drake -- i think that's Disney World fantasy talk mostly.  i am talking not trading up at all and taking one of the QBs right where they pick.

 

I don't think it will be based on theory or philosophy.  At least I don't think so, i think its about apples to apples Howell versus this crop.

 

Some politics might weigh in.  Again, i do think it matters that the Giants might end up picking right after us.  it might matter than Howell just has two years left on a cheap contract. 

 

I am coming off like I want to do this.  I am not advocating anything really.  i am just advocating that IMO the new GM would be foolish not to consider it.  And i think he will consider it.

 

6 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Or is the curse of Dan Snyder too strong, and we select Daniels who busts and Howell somehow ends up with the Giants for a decade as a pretty good QB.

 

lol, yep that's possible too. 

 

My point isn't go with Howell or don't go with Howell.  If it were me making the decision, the safer bet would be running with Howell.  But clearly a GM knows miles and miles more about football than me.  So I want him to have EVERYTHING on the table. 

 

Old school Dan Snyder would be to pass over the QBs in this draft and ride with the bird in hand.  And I am not saying that's wrong here.  I like Howell's potential well over Ramsey or Campbell or Haskins, etc.  But I don't want the GM to be married to anything.  Dissect this issue deeply.  Consider all the chess moves versus predetemine your move. 

 

And heck yeah i mentioned it, discarding Howell might be a mistake, too.  I don't favor any scenario.  I want the GM to make the best call without worrying about the past.  

Edited December 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[BrentMeisterGeneral]

Iv just watched a load of Jayden Daniel’s comps and I feel all tingly, he is rapid

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Another factor is you have the Qb if you’re taken in the first for the next 5 years on the cheap. You got Howell for 2 more years on the cheap.

 

my point isn’t give up on Howell. I actually like Howell and not even a whit of my thoughts center on giving up on him. I think he likely has the goods. 
 

My question is his ceiling versus someone else in a draft uniquely in theory stacked at QB and with unique circumstances that give more weight and consequences if you get it wrong.

 

I don’t know what I would do but I do know I would consider it because to me one decision over another isn’t a no brainer easy call 

5 years of cheap cost controlled QB play is critical, so long as the QB is not, say, Zach Wilson, or Trey Lance, or the litany of guys I liked in '18, all of whom sucked or were mediocre (except for Lamar, who I did not prioritize much beyond snagging him on a dynasty team). 

 

Howell lacked a 5th year and we didn't use him in his 1st, so the value aint really there unless he hits a home run in '24, and how much value are those last two years when we're rock bottoming then anyway? Frustrating situation. 

[Warhead36]

I don't think we should make decisions out of fear of what our rivals may or may not do.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

And heck yeah i mentioned it, discarding Howell might be a mistake, too.  I don't favor any scenario.  I want the GM to make the best call without worrying about the past.  

This is right where I’m at.  My only hard stop would be drafting Bo Nix, who does nothing for me and would make me real skeptical of our new GM.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, BrentMeisterGeneral said:

Iv just watched a load of Jayden Daniel’s comps and I feel all tingly, he is rapid

 

I really like Sam.  But IMO Daniels has to be at least considered.  It feels odd to me to just ignore the QB class.  And I don't think they will.  Keim, Sheehan, Standig, none of them think they won't at least consider a QB in this draft.  Obviously we need to see who the new GM is first.  but I am betting now this will at least be a discussion as it should be IMO.

 

https://www.on3.com/college/lsu-tigers/news/jayden-daniels-confirs-top-speed-rumor-dating-back-to-the-spring/

I think when I have the opportunity to talk about my players, I’m going to do it,” Kelly said. “And I think I mentioned that and I think in this case, I’m going to use my opportunities to talk about my player and I think he’s the best player in college football in every opportunity that I get. I’m going to make sure that people understand that his efficiency, the way he takes over the game, I mean, if you’re on the other side, how do you defend him?” 

Kelly broke down several instances against Georgia State where Daniels was unstoppable.

 

“They tried to blitz, that didn’t work,” Kelly said. “They dropped eight in the fourth quarter. They just said they were just gonna drop eight and that didn’t work. I’ve seen virtually everything this year, from trap coverages, to you know, every kind of configuration and it just doesn’t work. So I’m going to talk about him as much as I can.”

This season, Daniels is putting up career numbers with, presumably, two games to go in his college career. He has 3,577 yards, 36 touchdowns, four interceptions, a 72.6% completion percentage, 1,014 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.

“I think right now, the way he’s playing, and the decisiveness and the way he’s taking over games, he’s the best player,” Kelly said. “And I would say that because the numbers are reaching, you know, levels that are, for example, he tied Joe Burrow’s record. Many people were kind of saying, would eight touchdowns ever be touched? I mean, he tied that, you know, and I think that that’s the level of play. So yeah, I would say he’s the best.”

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[mcsluggo]

this thread is absolutely insane.  everyone here is either Sammy is the singe greatest, or cut the bum...  and often it is the same people swing the gauntlet after different games.   (and with the same bipolar sickness in people's assessment of Bienemy)  

 

Howell is for all intents and purposes a rookie, slapped into the most dysfunctional organization in football.   the offensive line is one of the worst in the league, by ANYONE's measure.  there is a new offensive coordinator... and with all of that he would EASILY rank the second best in class if he was ranked with all of the rookie QBs this season (possibly #3, if you give Anthony Robinson a grade other than "incomplete" after 4 games, or if you call Jordan Love a rookie, AND heavily over-weight the last three games).

 

RIGNT NOW he is clearly on-route to being a middle tier QB in the NFL without any squinting or rose-colored goggles............   and that would make him the best QB that Washington has had since the 1980s, with the possible exception of that Minnesota Viking.   Easily.   and there is a chance that he exceeds that "middle of the NFL" ranking, particularly if the team under new management is able to clean out the stench of **** that hangs over every corner of the organization.   

 

calm the **** down people... he is a solid young NFL player with upside.    enjoy that!

 

 

this list stands as a happy reminder of the last 30 halcyon years of Washington QB league-wide domination.... 

Ranking The Washington Redskins' 24 Starting QBs Since Super Bowl XXVI (thesportster.com)

enjoy the nipple-stiffening walk down memory lane....

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think we should make decisions out of fear of what our rivals may or may not do.

 

I flat out said the way you framed it isn't my point.  Obviously you don't take players just because another team might.

 

My point about NY is if the GM gets the decision wrong, and NY ends up with the QB that they pass over.  The GM will be hung by the fans as he should be.  That adds a layer of pressure to get this right.  That is, your division rival might end up with the QB you discard.  I don't find the point irrelevant.

 

Ron passing over Herbert didn't kill him with the fans.  But if he passed over Herbert and the Giants picked him next that would take it up a notch.  it would be part of the narrative every time the two teams played.

 

And I am not saying this would haunt the organziation to pass over any QB.  But if that QB they pass over ends up in the division it gives more consequences to the call for the simple reason that the decision had more consequences.