The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Thinking Skins]

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

PFF has this unit ranked 21st in pass blocking eficiency.   That's the metric they highlight on their own site.  They actually ranked this unit gloablly right now as the 21st best in the NFL so far against a weak schedule, and its dropping over time.  By the time we are through I bet even on the PFF metrics it would end up near the bottom.

 

The idea that PFF ranks its as "good" is BS.  They don't rank it well.  If people want to say they rank the unit as below average but not awful, that's true.  If they want to say on some metrics the O line is ranked well, that's true.  But the idea that PFF thinks this is a good O line isn't true.

I don't subscribe to PFF so I depend on others to determine the rankings. I'm seeing that they're 11th in pass blocking and 3rd in run blocking.  

 

 

 

 

But it doesn't matter to me if we're ranked good right now. Historically we've had good linemen who have been ranked good by them and we have been able to see with our own eyes that they are bad. Remember Stephon Heyer? Wasn't he always ranked really high on PFF and I used to scratch my head. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Thinking Skins

[NewCliche21]

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

Yeah, but if they depend too heavily on only one. I'd like to believe that the analytics guy isn't as easily fooled by PFF or other analytics as some of the community. The same way that I didn't want Bruce to only go to Alabama to get talent, I don't want to only depend on certain cites for analytics. 

 

Now I realize that Harris is a business guy and he'll do deals some of which are business analytics deals. But I just hope that they don't get sold fools gold. 

 

I feel like Voldemort didn't have anything feeding him data that he didn't want.  Harris likely isn't just retooling, he's planting saplings where there should be a forest. Even a scatter plot would be something instead of nothing.

Set your future team up to succeed, I like it.

9 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I don't subscribe to PFF so I depend on others to determine the rankings. I'm seeing that they're 11th in pass blocking and 3rd in run blocking.  

 

 

 

 

But it doesn't matter to me if we're ranked good right now. Historically we've had good linemen who have been ranked good by them and we have been able to see with our own eyes that they are bad. Remember Stephon Heyer? Wasn't he always ranked really high on PFF and I used to scratch my head. 

 

I trust Nicki Jhabvala over at WP. She's pointing out that three guys missed on the same sack. How do you put that in a metric?  There's a huge difference between a guard blowing it so the QB needs to avoid one rusher than three rushers. The whole is is greater than the sum of its parts.

That three guys on a sack was on a Keim podcast, but here's an article from her (doesn't seem paywalled) on the OL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/10/26/commanders-offensive-line-center/

Edited October 27, 2023 by NewCliche21

[mojo]

I like Howell and think he should remain the starter but I'd almost like to see Brisett start a game and let's see the difference in sacks.  I see the stats saying Howell is among the league leaders in time to throw and I just can't believe it.

[Thinking Skins]

This doesn't use Sam Howell's name, but I'm indirectly asking about him. This is basically me and a ChatGPT talking about some stuff that I thought people may find interesting. Or not. 

Quote

How often do rookie QBs struggle with reading defenses

 

ChatGPT

Poe

 

Rookie quarterbacks often face challenges when it comes to reading defenses in the NFL. The transition from college football to the professional level presents a significant jump in defensive complexity and speed. As a result, many rookie quarterbacks experience difficulties in deciphering defensive schemes and making quick, accurate decisions.

Here are a few reasons why rookie quarterbacks can struggle with reading defenses:

1. Increased Complexity: NFL defenses employ a wide range of sophisticated schemes, coverages, and blitz packages. Rookie quarterbacks must quickly learn to recognize and understand these various defensive concepts, which can be overwhelming at first.

2. Speed of the Game: The speed of the NFL game is considerably faster than in college. Defenses react more quickly, close passing windows faster, and disguise their intentions more effectively. This increased speed can make it challenging for rookies to process information and make accurate reads within the limited time available.

3. Limited Pre-snap Experience: College offenses often rely on simplified playbooks and rely heavily on predetermined reads or simplified progressions. In the NFL, quarterbacks must make more complex pre-snap reads, identify defensive alignments, and adjust plays accordingly. The lack of pre-snap experience can hinder rookies' ability to anticipate defensive movements and make optimal decisions.

4. Lack of Familiarity: Rookie quarterbacks are often unfamiliar with the specific defensive schemes and tendencies of NFL teams. They may have limited exposure to the defensive concepts employed by professional teams, making it more difficult to anticipate and react to various defensive strategies.

5. Adaptation to Defensive Adjustments: Defensive coordinators in the NFL are skilled at making adjustments throughout a game to exploit a rookie quarterback's weaknesses. They may disguise coverages, send unexpected blitzes, and employ other tactics to confuse and disrupt a rookie's ability to read the defense effectively.

It's important to note that while many rookie quarterbacks initially struggle with reading defenses, this is a skill that can improve with experience, coaching, and film study. As they gain more game time and exposure to different defensive schemes, rookie quarterbacks typically become more adept at recognizing and reacting to the complexities of NFL defenses.

 

 

If you can quantify it, how would you order the things rookie QBs struggle with

 

ChatGPT

Poe

 

Quantifying the exact order of the things rookie quarterbacks struggle with can be challenging, as it can vary depending on the individual and their specific circumstances. However, based on common observations and general trends, here's a rough ordering of the challenges rookie quarterbacks often face:

1. Reading Defenses: Understanding and quickly deciphering complex defensive schemes and coverages can be one of the most significant challenges for rookie quarterbacks. This includes recognizing different formations, identifying potential blitzes, and making accurate pre- and post-snap reads.

2. Speed of the Game: Adjusting to the increased speed and intensity of the NFL game is crucial. Rookie quarterbacks need to process information rapidly, make quick decisions, and execute plays under pressure.

3. Decision-Making: Making sound decisions under duress is another area where rookies may struggle. This includes determining when to throw the ball, when to scramble, and when to take a sack, all while considering factors such as coverage, pass rush, and open receivers.

4. Pocket Presence: Developing a sense of pocket awareness and the ability to navigate the pocket effectively is essential. Rookie quarterbacks often need to learn how to feel pressure, step up in the pocket, and find passing lanes while maintaining proper mechanics.

5. Anticipation and Timing: Developing the ability to anticipate receiver routes and throw with timing is crucial for success in the NFL. This includes developing chemistry with receivers, understanding their tendencies, and accurately placing the ball in tight windows.

6. Adjusting to NFL Playbooks: Learning and adapting to the more complex offensive systems in the NFL can be a significant challenge for rookie quarterbacks. They must grasp new terminology, route concepts, audibles, and other intricacies of their team's playbook.

7. Handling Pressure: Dealing with the pressure and expectations that come with being an NFL quarterback can be mentally challenging. Rookie quarterbacks must learn to manage the stress, handle criticism, and stay composed in high-pressure situations.

It's important to note that this ordering is not absolute and can vary for different quarterbacks based on their individual skills, coaching, and team situations. Additionally, each quarterback's progress and development will differ, and they may overcome these challenges at different rates.

 

 

And what do these rookie QBs do generally? Throw interceptions? take sacks? scramble? something else?

 

ChatGPT

Poe

 

Rookie quarterbacks can exhibit a variety of tendencies as they adjust to the NFL. While individual styles and strategies may vary, here are some common actions and behaviors observed in rookie quarterbacks:

1. Interceptions: Rookie quarterbacks tend to have higher interception rates compared to more experienced players. They may struggle with recognizing complex coverages, misreading defenses, or forcing throws into tight windows. In an effort to make plays, rookies can be more prone to turnovers.

2. Sacks: Rookie quarterbacks may take more sacks due to several factors. They may still be adapting to the speed of the game and have less refined pocket awareness, leading to a higher likelihood of being caught behind the line of scrimmage. Additionally, rookies may hold onto the ball longer while trying to make decisions or waiting for receivers to get open.

3. Scrambling: Some rookie quarterbacks, particularly those with mobility and athleticism, may rely on their legs to escape pressure. When faced with a collapsing pocket or a breakdown in pass protection, they may choose to scramble and extend plays with their feet. This can be an effective way to buy time, create opportunities, and avoid sacks.

4. Check Downs: In an effort to mitigate risk and make safer throws, rookie quarterbacks often lean towards shorter, easier passes. They may opt for check-downs to running backs or tight ends instead of attempting more challenging deep throws. This conservative approach can help minimize turnovers and gain confidence.

5. Learning from Mistakes: Rookie quarterbacks will make mistakes as they learn and adjust to the complexities of the NFL. However, successful rookies tend to be resilient and use these mistakes as learning opportunities. They analyze film, work with coaches, and make adjustments to improve their decision-making and overall performance.

6. Growing Confidence: As rookie quarterbacks gain experience and become more comfortable with the speed and demands of the NFL, they often exhibit growth in confidence. This can lead to more assertive decision-making, improved accuracy, and the ability to make plays under pressure.

It's important to remember that each rookie quarterback is unique, and their style of play will vary based on their individual strengths, coaching systems, and team dynamics. Additionally, as rookies gain experience and develop their skills, they can evolve and refine their approach to the game.

 

 

Analyze film is a complex term that seems to have a lot in it. Can you break it doen

 

ChatGPT

Poe

 

Certainly! When we talk about analyzing film in the context of a rookie quarterback, it refers to the process of studying game footage to gain a deeper understanding of their performance, opponents' defensive strategies, and areas for improvement. Here's a breakdown of the components involved in film analysis for a rookie quarterback:

1. Game Film Review: The quarterback and their coaches review game footage, typically from both practice sessions and actual game scenarios. This involves closely examining each play, analyzing the quarterback's decision-making, mechanics, footwork, and overall execution. They assess the effectiveness of their throws, the accuracy of their passes, and the decision-making process behind their choices.

2. Defensive Film Study: Film analysis also includes studying the defensive schemes and tendencies of upcoming opponents. The quarterback and their coaches analyze how opposing defenses align, their coverage strategies, blitz packages, and any patterns or weaknesses that can be exploited. This allows the quarterback to anticipate defensive movements and make more informed decisions during games.

3. Self-Assessment and Feedback: The quarterback critically evaluates their own performance, identifying strengths and weaknesses. They assess their decision-making skills, accuracy, timing, and ability to read defenses. This self-reflection helps them recognize areas that need improvement and work on refining their skills.

4. Identifying Patterns and Trends: By watching game film, the quarterback looks for patterns and trends in their opponents' defensive strategies. They identify recurring formations, coverages, and blitzes that can help them anticipate and react more effectively during games. This knowledge allows the quarterback to make quicker and more accurate reads, improving their overall performance.

5. Collaborating with Coaches: Film analysis is a collaborative process between the quarterback and their coaching staff. Coaches provide guidance, insights, and feedback based on their extensive experience and knowledge. They help the quarterback interpret the film, identify areas of improvement, and develop strategies to enhance their performance.

6. Adjusting Game Plan: Based on the analysis of film, the quarterback and their coaches make adjustments to the game plan. They may identify specific plays or concepts that have been successful against the upcoming opponent's defensive schemes. They also work on refining the quarterback's reads, progressions, and audibles based on the film analysis.

Film analysis is an ongoing and iterative process throughout a quarterback's career. It helps them gain a deeper understanding of their own performance, opponents' strategies, and the nuances of the game, ultimately leading to better decision-making, improved execution, and enhanced overall performance on the field.

 

 

what would you say is the most complex defense for a rookie QB to understand

 

ChatGPT

Poe

 

The most complex defense for a rookie quarterback to understand can vary based on multiple factors, including the individual quarterback's experience, the coaching they receive, and the defensive schemes employed by different teams. However, there are a few defensive systems that are often considered more intricate and challenging for rookie quarterbacks to decipher:

1. Multiple Variations of Coverages: Defenses that employ a wide range of coverage variations can pose significant challenges for rookie quarterbacks. These defenses may use different combinations of man-to-man, zone, and hybrid coverages, often with disguised pre-snap alignments. Recognizing and accurately reading these complex coverage schemes can be difficult, especially for quarterbacks with limited experience facing such diversity.

2. Exotic Blitz Packages: Defenses known for their aggressive and creative blitz packages can confuse and overwhelm rookie quarterbacks. These schemes involve sending additional pass rushers from unexpected angles, using stunts, delayed blitzes, or zone blitz concepts. Identifying the blitzers, adjusting protection, and making quick decisions under pressure become more challenging against these complex blitz packages.

3. Hybrid and Multiple Fronts: Defenses that frequently shift between different fronts, such as a 3-4 and 4-3 alignment or employ hybrid schemes, can cause confusion for rookie quarterbacks. These defenses often prioritize versatility and disguise their intentions pre-snap, making it harder for quarterbacks to identify the alignment, potential rushers, and coverage responsibilities.

4. Pre-snap Disguises and Rotations: Defenses that excel at disguising coverages and rotating their defensive backs pre-snap can make it challenging for rookie quarterbacks to accurately read and anticipate defensive movements. These defenses aim to confuse the quarterback's pre-snap read and force them into making incorrect decisions or misreading the coverage post-snap.

5. Complex Man-to-Man Matchup Schemes: Defenses that employ intricate man-to-man coverage schemes, such as pattern-matching or matchup zone concepts, can make it difficult for rookie quarterbacks to find open receivers. These defenses use a combination of zone principles within man-to-man assignments, requiring quarterbacks to recognize and exploit the coverage voids effectively.

It's important to note that every quarterback is unique, and what may be complex for one rookie quarterback might be easier for another, depending on their football IQ, adaptability, and coaching support. Additionally, as quarterbacks gain experience and exposure to different defensive schemes, they become more adept at handling complex defenses and making quicker, more accurate reads.

 

 

How different is a QB analyzing film from other positions anayzing film

 

ChatGPT

Poe

 

While the process of analyzing film is similar across different positions in football, there are specific nuances and focuses that vary based on the position. Here are some key differences in how quarterbacks analyze film compared to other positions:

1. Perspective and Decision-Making: Quarterbacks have a unique vantage point on the field and are responsible for making split-second decisions. When analyzing film, they closely examine their decision-making process, such as reading defenses, identifying open receivers, and choosing the appropriate throws. Other positions may focus more on technique, execution, and their specific assignments within the play.

2. Reading Defenses: Quarterbacks spend significant time studying opposing defenses to understand their coverages, blitz packages, and tendencies. They analyze pre-snap alignments, post-snap rotations, and the movement of defensive players to make accurate reads. Other positions may focus more on understanding their specific assignments or studying the techniques and tendencies of the players they'll face.

3. Offensive Game Plan: Quarterbacks work closely with coaches to understand the offensive game plan and how specific plays are designed to exploit defensive weaknesses. They analyze film to identify potential mismatches, tendencies, or vulnerabilities in the opposing defense. Other positions may focus more on understanding their role within the play and executing their assignments effectively.

4. Timing and Chemistry: Quarterbacks rely heavily on timing and chemistry with their receivers. They study film to understand the route-running abilities, tendencies, and preferences of their receivers. This helps them anticipate breaks, make accurate throws, and develop a cohesive passing game. Other positions may analyze film to evaluate their own technique, footwork, or blocking assignments.

5. Leadership and Communication: Quarterbacks are often the leaders on the field, responsible for communicating the play call, audibles, and adjustments to the rest of the offense. When analyzing film, they may pay attention to their communication, command of the huddle, and ability to make quick decisions based on what they see on film. Other positions may focus more on their individual performance and technique.

While these differences exist, there are also commonalities in film analysis across positions, such as studying opponents, self-assessment, recognizing patterns, and collaborating with coaches. Ultimately, the specific focus and emphasis in film analysis will depend on the responsibilities and intricacies of each position on the field.

 

 

How often do rookies have a say in audibles

 

ChatGPT

Poe

 

The level of involvement that rookies have in audibles can vary depending on several factors, including the coaching staff, the rookie's experience and understanding of the offensive system, and their ability to process information on the field. Here are a few points to consider:

1. Offensive System and Coaching Philosophy: Some offensive systems, particularly those with more complex or rigid play-calling structures, may limit the autonomy of rookies when it comes to audibles. In these cases, the coaching staff might prefer to control the play-calling decisions to ensure consistency and minimize potential mistakes. Other systems, especially those that prioritize quarterback autonomy and decision-making, may grant rookies more freedom to audible and make adjustments at the line of scrimmage.

2. Experience and Understanding: Rookies typically have limited experience and may still be in the process of learning the nuances of the offensive system. Their understanding of defensive concepts, recognition of pre-snap cues, and ability to make quick decisions might be less developed compared to more experienced quarterbacks. As rookies gain experience and demonstrate proficiency in these areas, coaches might gradually expand their responsibilities in audibles.

3. Communication Skills and Field Command: Audibling involves effectively communicating changes in the play call to the rest of the offense. This requires strong communication skills and command of the huddle. While some rookies may possess these qualities, others might need more time to develop them. Coaches may consider a rookie quarterback's communication abilities when determining their involvement in audibles.

4. Trust and Confidence: Coaches need to have confidence in a rookie quarterback's decision-making abilities before granting them more control over audibles. Trust is built over time through practice, film study, and on-field performance. As rookies consistently demonstrate good judgment and success in making audibles, coaches may expand their responsibilities in this area.

It's important to note that the level of involvement in audibles can evolve throughout a rookie quarterback's career. As they become more experienced, gain a deeper understanding of the offensive system, and earn the trust of coaches, their influence in audibles is likely to increase. However, it ultimately depends on the specific circumstances and the coaching philosophy of the team.

 

 

what about a checkdown

 

ChatGPT

Poe

 

A checkdown refers to a short, lower-risk pass option that a quarterback can utilize when their primary receiving options are covered or when they face pressure from the defense. The decision to check down typically rests with the quarterback, and rookies can be involved in this aspect of the game. Here's how rookies may be involved in checkdowns:

1. Progression Read: Quarterbacks are often taught to go through their progressions when scanning the field for open receivers. This involves looking at multiple passing options, typically starting with their primary target and progressing to secondary and tertiary options. Rookies learn to recognize when their primary options are covered and quickly transition to checkdown options as part of their progression read.

2. Pre-snap and Post-snap Recognition: Rookies develop the ability to identify potential checkdown options both before the snap and after the play begins. They learn to recognize defensive alignments, blitzes, and coverage schemes that may indicate the need for a checkdown pass. Additionally, rookies must process information quickly after the snap to determine if a checkdown is the best option based on the unfolding play.

3. Understanding Offensive Concepts: Rookies must understand the offensive concepts and the role of each player in the passing game. This includes recognizing the routes and responsibilities of running backs, tight ends, and checkdown options within the offensive system. By understanding the purpose and positioning of these options, rookies can effectively utilize checkdowns when necessary.

4. Decision-Making: Ultimately, the decision to check down rests with the quarterback, regardless of their experience level. Rookies must learn to make quick and accurate decisions based on the information available to them. They need to assess the risk-reward of attempting a more challenging throw versus taking the safer option of a checkdown pass.

It's worth noting that the involvement of rookies in checkdowns may also depend on the offensive system and the coaching philosophy. Some systems may emphasize checkdowns as a primary option, while others may prioritize downfield throws. Additionally, the development of a rookie quarterback's decision-making and ability to read defenses will influence their effectiveness in executing checkdown passes.

 

 

Particularly for a rookie, how do things like drops by a WR early in a game, misthrows, pressures allowed by the OL and big hits by the DL impact them?

 

ChatGPT

Poe

 

Drops by receivers, misthrows, pressures allowed by the offensive line, and big hits by the defensive line can have various impacts on a rookie quarterback, both in the short term and long term. Here's how these factors can affect rookies:

1. Confidence and Trust: Drops by receivers or misthrows can shake a rookie quarterback's confidence and trust in his teammates. If a receiver consistently drops catchable passes or the quarterback struggles with accuracy, it can lead to hesitancy and a lack of trust in throwing to certain targets. This can impact the overall chemistry and timing between the quarterback and the receivers, making it more challenging for the rookie to develop rapport with his pass-catchers.

2. Decision-Making: Misthrows, pressures, and big hits from the defensive line can create a sense of urgency or panic for a rookie quarterback. They may feel pressured to make quick decisions or rush their throws, leading to poor decision-making or inaccurate passes. The fear of getting hit or the lack of time in the pocket can affect their ability to go through progressions and properly read the defense.

3. Pocket Presence and Awareness: If the offensive line allows consistent pressure or if the rookie experiences big hits from the defensive line, it can impact their pocket presence and overall awareness. They may become more skittish in the pocket, leading to a tendency to bail out prematurely or struggle to keep their eyes downfield while under pressure. This can hinder their ability to effectively navigate the pocket and make accurate throws.

4. Development and Growth: The cumulative effect of these factors can impact a rookie quarterback's development and growth. If they consistently face drops, misthrows, and pressures, it may take longer for them to develop confidence, timing, and decision-making skills. It could also impact their mechanics and overall understanding of the game as they try to adjust to the challenges presented by these factors.

It's crucial for coaches and teammates to support and provide guidance to rookie quarterbacks during these situations. Through proper coaching, film study, and experience, rookies can learn to overcome these challenges, improve their performance, and develop the mental and physical resilience needed to succeed in the long term.

 

[MartinC]

10 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

This doesn't use Sam Howell's name, but I'm indirectly asking about him. This is basically me and a ChatGPT talking about some stuff that I thought people may find interesting. Or not. 

 

“Increased Complexity: NFL defenses employ a wide range of sophisticated schemes, coverages, and blitz packages”

AI has clearly not accounted for a Jack Del Rio coached defense here. 

[bird_1972]

We should consider trading Brissett for picks

[FootballZombie]

4 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

We should consider trading Brissett for picks

 

It does not matter how valuable JB is to other teams, he can't possibly be more valuable than he is for a team who's starter has taken a season's worth of sacks in seven weeks.

 

Unless your advocating openly asking the current staff to lose Brian Flores/Miami Dolphins ownership style in the event of a Howell injury, this aint an option... and no ownership group should do that.

[bird_1972]

2 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

It does not matter how valuable JB is to other teams, he can't possibly be more valuable than he is for a team who's starter has taken a season's worth of sacks in seven weeks.

 

Unless your advocating openly asking the current staff to lose Brian Flores/Miami Dolphins ownership style in the event of a Howell injury, this aint an option... and no ownership group should do that.

 

That's kind of what I'm advocating for, yes. This coaching staff are dead men walking. Team seems to have given up. We aren't going to make the playoffs. 

 

Purpose of this season is to develop Howell and evaluate everyone else. Figure out who we trade for picks so the next GM can begin the slow, arduous process of building a winner from the ashes of the Snyder Redskins/Commanders.

 

If that means we trade Brissett for a QB-needy team for a few draft picks, bring it on.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Idea for all not just @Skinsinparadise How about we all add those pesky /s tags, since the beginning of the vast internets, sarcasm doesnt traverse it well. At all. Closer to never and just confuses countless people. Clearly I would like to see it scrapped. But hey, i get it, old habits are hard to break. /s

 

Like Howell refusing to throw into tight coverages, looking to scramble or find an open receiver instead.

 

 

 

 I had a bunch of posts just above that one, that I figured most would follow the tone.  The build up was like a good novel. 😎

[Voice_of_Reason]

9 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Idea for all not just @Skinsinparadise How about we all add those pesky /s tags, since the beginning of the vast internets, sarcasm doesnt traverse it well. At all. Closer to never and just confuses countless people. Clearly I would like to see it scrapped. But hey, i get it, old habits are hard to break. /s

 

Like Howell refusing to throw into tight coverages, looking to scramble or find an open receiver instead.

 

 

Eh, I knew what @Skinsinparadise was getting at and I was playing along with the bit.  

 

Btw, has anybody had Mark Schlereth's stinking good green chili? I've always wanted to try some, but never have. 

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

20 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Yep.
 

Jay Gruden, Chris Cooley, and Mark Schlereth have never been around any NFL offense, they got no idea what they are looking at when they criticize the O line.

 

PFF ranks the unit 21st. So case closed. 

2 of the people on this list have had successful NFL careers and should be considered expert analysts.  

 

The third had his nipple tweaked by a player and only got a HC job because his brother was palsy (at the time) with the Brucifer.  

 

Also, PFF should change it's name to "Pro Football Focus, presented by Our Dear Leader Chris Collinsworth who cares about nothing except self promotion which is why the grades and rankings are based on hot takes and is just shock-jock material obfuscated by trying to appear intellectual."

 

I wanted to scream when I saw that Sunday Night Football no longer puts up the PFF Grades, which they used to do.  Now they've gone a step farther and put up their player rankings.

 

I think I've finally cracked the nut:  The reason every team subscribes to PFF is because they've been told they have to.  31 teams immediately circular file everything from PFF.  Ron reads it meticulously.  

 

(And I'll leave it to each member to figure out if this is serious or not.  Hint:  Wait.  I think it's going to be more fun not giving a hint.  You're on your own, suckers!)

 

PFF is actually the root of all of Ron's problems.  I blame Collinsworth.  

 

[zCommander]

8 hours ago, bird_1972 said:

We should consider trading Brissett for picks

 

Ah no! We will need him in case Howell goes down in the paloffs! 🙃

[Conn]

 

lol Purdy with Kyle Shanahan holding the Xbox controller is amazing. Scheme matters.

[FootballZombie]

There is Kyle Shanny and then there is everybody else.

Still sick he got away.

I thought we were set at HC for the next 15 years between him and his dad when we had 'em both.

 

Clearly our passing scheme aint doing Howell any favors.

 

Ant-Man for the Colts is crazy up there tho. I assume he has some plus carries when there is nowhere to go?

[Rufus T Firefly]

10 hours ago, bird_1972 said:

 

That's kind of what I'm advocating for, yes. This coaching staff are dead men walking. Team seems to have given up. We aren't going to make the playoffs. 

 

Purpose of this season is to develop Howell and evaluate everyone else. Figure out who we trade for picks so the next GM can begin the slow, arduous process of building a winner from the ashes of the Snyder Redskins/Commanders.

 

If that means we trade Brissett for a QB-needy team for a few draft picks, bring it on.

100%. Just moving a couple mil in salary has some benefit for the future, but it would seem there might be a team (Jets, you listening?) willing to give up something decent for him too.

 

One would hope we're reaching a time where we stop ignoring the chance to build for the future because- maybe, just maybe, if everything goes right, we might just get to 8-9. And boy, if we do, maybe there's a one in twenty chance that would mean we get to lose a playoff game.

[Conn]

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

 

lol Purdy with Kyle Shanahan holding the Xbox controller is amazing. Scheme matters.

How does he define perfect coverage, and how she’s he quantify it?  Any idea?

[Conn]

17 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

How does he define perfect coverage, and how she’s he quantify it?  Any idea?

Not sure, attempts I’ve seen at metrics like this in the past have been a DB within x distance of all receivers at top of drop type thing 

[Going Commando]

8 hours ago, Conn said:

lol Purdy with Kyle Shanahan holding the Xbox controller is amazing. Scheme matters.

 

Defenses can't tell if they are going to run or pass, and often it's not clear for a second or two post snap as well.

 

That OL isn't even good.  It's Trent and four guys who kind of suck, who might not even start for us.  And I say this as a guy who liked Aaron Banks as a prospect (in the fourth, not the second, the 9ers definitely reached on him).  But he's been bad.  The group is worse without McGlinchey, who also isn't good and is probably only marginally better than Wylie for comparison, but who was still better than Colton McKivitz.  But with scheme, continuity, and high quality play from your weapons and back field players, you can run high powered offense even with crap offensive linemen.

 

That offense's success is all about having four of the best weapons in the NFL and a great scheme where Purdy has easy decisions and throws that allow him to be hyper efficient.  The power they have almost entirely hinges upon McCaffrey -- a HoF running back in his prime who is an MVP candidate and the best overall RB in the NFL. It's a drastically worse offense with McCaffrey out, especially with Deebo out too.  Purdy has something special to him though.  Coming back from a serious UCL injury as fast as he did... that's freakish.  And he beat out an incredibly high pedigreed QB that the franchise has invested three first round picks into within a season.  It's incredible when you stop to think about it, and it suggests that there is something intangible with him that is super special.

We've all been hoping that we got the next Russ/Brady with Sam Howell, and San Francisco might actually have done that.

[Est.1974]

Wonder if Brissett has any trade value

[Going Commando]

20 hours ago, philibusters said:

and while PFF is not perfect, I do think it is generally directional in that having a higher PFF grade generally means a player is playing better than if they had a lower PFF grade.

 

Gonna preface this by saying that I've been a critic of PFF grading for years, have not placed much value in them, and that I'm enjoying seeing the room finally turn on them.  But this OL being the impetus to finally do it is funny, because of all their grades, PFF's OL grading system is their least flawed.  OL responsibilities are the most straightforward and decipherable of any position group, and they also all play the same basic roles and snap count percentages for every offense.  It's the only position where that's the case, and it means that comparisons of starting OLs don't suffer from the kind of small sample size theater that can ruin PFFs grading for other positions.  There is no OL equivalent of Josh Uche for example.

 

I certainly don't disagree that PFFs grades are unreliable though, and I hope we can move beyond using them in our discussions from now on.  I've been trying to use AV as a better comprehensive metric of individual value in off-season discussions, but that only becomes available after the year is over.  It has it's flaws too, because it obviously rewards low quality high volume stat compiling.  But it has been the most consistently accurate win shares/WAR style all in one stat that's freely available that I've come across.

 

I will say that I 100% disagree with some arguments made in the thread trashing the value of tape based analysis.  The ONLY good and worthwhile and accurate analysis in football comes from watching tape.  There is a ton of Twitter/YouTube scout analysis out there that isn't very good, and it can certainly be cherry picked and presented in convincing ways that push agendas (which can be as simple as wanting to drive viewership via promoting hype or counterintuitive takes).  Learning to sift through that or watch the tape for yourself is how you get to the best and most informed takes that you can.  Stat based analysis helps keep perspective, but the foundation of all reliable football analysis comes from watching tape.  If that wasn't true, then every NFL front office and coaching staff and locker room wouldn't spend the majority of their time and energy each year grinding tape.  Almost all front office player personnel work product comes directly from watching film.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think when it comes to any of this stuff its about I agree watching the player first and foremost.  PFF I find sometimes interesting especially for college players where they compile stats for said player on various metrics.  And often (not always) when they do sub scores -- run blocking, versus pass blocking, gap, versus zone, pass sets, etc, they can paint a picture that often but not always paints a players strength or weaknesses.

 

I often post those stats on the draft thread because some are interested.  But I personally don't live and die with any of them.  Two of my favorite players that made my guys list who this team actually took weren't dug by PFF -- Ricky Stromberg, Quan Martin.  They scored decidently ironically on their metrics but the PFF guys thought "meh".  But their takes don't move me.

 

But heck like anyone that I debate football with, I learn something from them even if I don't always agree including the folks at PFF. 

 

I of course enjoying reading @Going Commando takes on that draft thread.  Some really good stuff.   He has some tenets though that I don't agree with.  And I am sure its the same with him to me.  And with others there, etc.  But the different strokes, takes, its what makes it all interesting.  If we all agreed on everything it would be boring.  I hear of NFL teams using PFF all the time, I've never heard any personnel guy quote AV.  AV to me is interesting as a tool to judge a full unit.  But mostly worthless IMO as for individual players. 

 

It in short rewards players for being part of a good unit and punishes good players who are part of a bad unit.  For example PFF has thought highly of Kam Curl over the years.  AV scores rate Curl as mostly a bum aside from his rookie year.   It's a bad secondary so Curl is a bad player is the AV way.    Terry wasn't much better than average WRs like Mecole Hardman in some seasons as to AV.  Why because Hardman of course plays for the Chiefs that's a good unit.  Terry plays for Washington -- he's on a bad unit.  Outside of this board, I almost never see AV discussed.   I don't recall it even once quoted in any numbers driven podcast or radio interview I've listened to from any personnel guy, ex-scout or heck even media person.  

 

Having said that I do 100% agree with @Going Commando point that nothing beats actually watching players.  If it was so easy to just run through some numbers and pick or judge players like one of those quantative run mutual funds -- life in the NFL would be easy.    You got to watch and make up your own mind.  If your thoughts contradict PFF or whatever, its fine.  They or any outfit isn't the be all and and all to judge players.   

 

They aren't completely worthless though.  There is a reason why every NFL team subscribes to them and its not because they are a complete joke, and do it for laughs.  I think if you bring your own context to the player then they can sometimes be interesting.  Heck even AV as much as I don't think much of that metric.  It is interesting to me as to how they judge the whole unit.  The full pie.  Their judgements of the slices of pie feel mostly ridiculous to me.  But that's me.  But I can still take something from a metric that on some fronts I think sucks.  So there is some value I think can be found from almost anything.  Heck even if I disagree, its interesting for me to notice PFR (AV) thinks Curl is a below average player, while PFF lionizes him.   Or PFF doesn't care for Stromberg like I do but they do like his run blocking.  Or whatever.  

 

And also like I've been saying stats can be misrepresented.  So many people here have said that PFF digs our O line.  That it doesn't seem to matter that I actually post real takes from them that says they actually don't. I am at fault some for this too by mocking them in that process so in turn giving the vibe they like this unit more than they actually do. 

 

I am not cherry picking here.  They rank this O line at ths given time as 21st.  And that's against a weak schedule.  And the unit keeps going down with them.   If I recall they said its the 27th best unit in the league before the season started.  I'd bet it ends up somewhere there.  But its said so much that PFF sees this as a good unit by some here so many times that I gather we are stuck with that as some sort of false accepted truth on this thread.   I'll take some blame for that but again PFF isn't high on this O line.

Edited October 28, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Listening to Keim. Larsen likely new starter with Gates to the bench. Part of their frustration with Gates is him struggling with calling protections. 

They liked that Howell was taking more of a roll with helping call protections in the 2nd half.
 

[bird_1972]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to Keim. Larsen likely new starter with Gates to the bench. Part of their frustration with Gates is him struggling with calling protections. 

They liked that Howell was taking more of a roll with helping call protections in the 2nd half.
 

 

The offense did seem better in the second half.

[RandyHolt]

This seems complicated. But other coaches figure out ways to get it done. Gates sounds like the fall guy but he is not alone in making mistakes

Edited October 28, 2023 by RandyHolt