The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Conn]

3 minutes ago, jg77 said:

 

I've heard of a couple of analyst argue Daniels over Williams. I haven't heard one argue Maye over Williams...just saying.

This has nothing to do with what you posted or what I responded to. Please keep up with your own posts—think this is the second time I’ve requested it from you 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

12 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Im rewatching RG3 highlights to prep for Daniels. FWIW that was one fun af season. 

If Daniels can just learn to slide, we are already mitigating a ton of the risk that came with RG3

 

They need to do whatever it takes to drill it into his head, including sitting him if he's not doing it

Edited April 23 by WashingtonRedWolves

[jg77]

Just now, Conn said:

This has nothing to do with what you posted or what I responded to. Please keep up with your own posts—think this is the second time I’ve requested it from you 

 

This whole thread is projecting with majority of it being a bias towards Maye. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Fan Mock Draft

How the first round of the NFL draft will go using fan behavior on ESPN's Draft Day Predictor.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	Bears	Caleb Williams	QB	USC
2	Commanders	Jayden Daniels	QB	LSU
3	Patriots	Drake Maye	QB	North Carolina
4	Cardinals	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	Ohio State
5	Chargers	Malik Nabers	WR	LSU
6	Giants	Rome Odunze	WR	Washington
7	Titans	Joe Alt	OT	Notre Dame
8	Falcons	Dallas Turner	Edge	Alabama
9	Bears	Troy Fautanu	OT	Washington
10	Jets	Brock Bowers	TE	Georgia
11	Vikings	J.J. McCarthy	QB	Michigan
12	Broncos	Bo Nix	QB	Oregon
13	Raiders	Quinyon Mitchell	CB	Toledo
14	Saints	Olumuyiwa Fashanu	OT	Penn State
15	Colts	Terrion Arnold	CB	Alabama
16	Seahawks	Laiatu Latu	Edge	UCLA
17	Jaguars	Nate Wiggins	CB	Clemson
18	Bengals	Amarius Mims	OT	Georgia
19	Rams	Jer'Zhan Newton	DT	Illinois
20	Steelers	Graham Barton	C/G	Duke
21	Dolphins	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	LSU
22	Eagles	Cooper DeJean	CB	Iowa
23	Vikings	Chop Robinson	Edge	Penn State
24	Cowboys	Tyler Guyton	OT	OKlahoma
25	Packers	Kool-Aid McKinstry	CB	Alabama
26	Buccaneers	Jackson Powers-Johnson	C/G	Oregon
27	Cardinals	Adonai Mitchell	WR	Texas
28	Bills	Xavier Legette	WR	South Carolina
29	Lions	Darius Robinson	DE	Missouri
30	Ravens	Jordan Morgan	OT	Arizona
31	49ers	Ennis Rakestraw Jr.	CB	Missouri
32	Chiefs	Ladd McConkey	WR	Georgia

Let's dive into the most notable selections from this exercise, starting with the second pick.

---

Commanders select Daniels at No. 2

This isn't a huge surprise, but what was interesting was just how strongly Commanders users preferred Daniels. Among simulations where drafters selected one of Daniels, Maye or McCarthy, Commanders users selected Daniels 82% of the time. That's quite an endorsement.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/40002252/2023-nfl-draft-day-predictor-forecasts-quarterbacks-receivers-risers-fallers

---

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

****ing RGIII.  No I do not want another 2012.  I want an annual contender for the next 15 years.  How pathetic is it that 2012 has become our Glory Days for anyone who didn't grow up in the 80s?

Feeling like a Jets fan, watching the Zach Wilson stupidity, screaming, and there's nothing I can do to stop it, like most Jets drafts. What a nightmare, and yes, I agree on '12. Just helpless, and left with only the ashes of hopes that somehow this isn't another zach wilson moment of stupidity. 

[Warhead36]

Tim Hasselbeck has Maye as QB1 as well. Not that I care about that. Maye is a better NFL prospect than Daniels by just about every metric as well as physical tools/traits. Its just mind boggling to me. 

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

Fan Mock Draft

How the first round of the NFL draft will go using fan behavior on ESPN's Draft Day Predictor.

PICK	TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	Bears	Caleb Williams	QB	USC
2	Commanders	Jayden Daniels	QB	LSU
3	Patriots	Drake Maye	QB	North Carolina
4	Cardinals	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	Ohio State
5	Chargers	Malik Nabers	WR	LSU
6	Giants	Rome Odunze	WR	Washington
7	Titans	Joe Alt	OT	Notre Dame
8	Falcons	Dallas Turner	Edge	Alabama
9	Bears	Troy Fautanu	OT	Washington
10	Jets	Brock Bowers	TE	Georgia
11	Vikings	J.J. McCarthy	QB	Michigan
12	Broncos	Bo Nix	QB	Oregon
13	Raiders	Quinyon Mitchell	CB	Toledo
14	Saints	Olumuyiwa Fashanu	OT	Penn State
15	Colts	Terrion Arnold	CB	Alabama
16	Seahawks	Laiatu Latu	Edge	UCLA
17	Jaguars	Nate Wiggins	CB	Clemson
18	Bengals	Amarius Mims	OT	Georgia
19	Rams	Jer'Zhan Newton	DT	Illinois
20	Steelers	Graham Barton	C/G	Duke
21	Dolphins	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	LSU
22	Eagles	Cooper DeJean	CB	Iowa
23	Vikings	Chop Robinson	Edge	Penn State
24	Cowboys	Tyler Guyton	OT	OKlahoma
25	Packers	Kool-Aid McKinstry	CB	Alabama
26	Buccaneers	Jackson Powers-Johnson	C/G	Oregon
27	Cardinals	Adonai Mitchell	WR	Texas
28	Bills	Xavier Legette	WR	South Carolina
29	Lions	Darius Robinson	DE	Missouri
30	Ravens	Jordan Morgan	OT	Arizona
31	49ers	Ennis Rakestraw Jr.	CB	Missouri
32	Chiefs	Ladd McConkey	WR	Georgia

Let's dive into the most notable selections from this exercise, starting with the second pick.

---

Commanders select Daniels at No. 2

This isn't a huge surprise, but what was interesting was just how strongly Commanders users preferred Daniels. Among simulations where drafters selected one of Daniels, Maye or McCarthy, Commanders users selected Daniels 82% of the time. That's quite an endorsement.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/40002252/2023-nfl-draft-day-predictor-forecasts-quarterbacks-receivers-risers-fallers

---

Most fans who would vote on ESPN are likely 13 year old zoomers who go by Youtube highlights.

[Conn]

Just now, jg77 said:

 

This whole thread is projecting with majority of it being a bias towards Maye. 

I don’t expect you to care because I’m nobody, but you are moments from being blocked because you don’t know how a message board conversation works. Go back and read what you typed, that I quoted. Then read what I said. Then respond.

 

Or keep just saying random stuff that has nothing to do with why I quoted you in the first place, and I’ll wish you well. 

[jg77]

Just now, Conn said:

I don’t expect you to care because I’m nobody, but you are moments from being blocked because you don’t know how a message board conversation works. Go back and read what you typed, that I quoted. Then read what I said. Then respond.

 

Or keep just saying random stuff that has nothing to do with why I quoted you in the first place, and I’ll wish you well. 

 

I was responding to someone else and then you quoted me because you didn't like what I said? So huh?

[Warhead36]

We're biased towards the QB who projects to be better in the pros based on traits and metrics. There's no conspiracy.

 

If we were picking 3rd and Maye was off the board then fine take a shot at Daniels.

[Chump Bailey]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

6 Giants Rome Odunze WR Washington

 

As good as Rome is, I can't see the Giants skipping McCarthy over him. 

[Andre The Giant]

 

[zCommander]

24 minutes ago, SuperBash said:

The amount of people in this thread who want Maye over Daniels probably tells me Daniels is the right pick 🤣🤣🤣

 

Not really. Does the team want a prototypical QB who they can groom or a QB who might be faster out the gate but might not last as long. Also the scheme they are putting together and which QB can run it better. I still think it will be Maye though. They did sign a lot of players on a 1 year deal to help whichever QB they get and gives them a chance to stabilize the team for the 1st year a bit and continue to build the team around the QB. 

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, Andre The Giant said:

 

So he's basically saying the coaches are forcing Daniels? Is that it? He doesn't say much and the audio cuts out like a third of it.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

 

Most fans who would vote on ESPN are likely 13 year old zoomers who go by Youtube highlights.

 

 

The only dratt I really dreaded the way you dread this draft -- was the Haskins one (RIP), where me and @volsmet were openly rooting as the draft was happening for Haskins to go before our pick. 

 

On Thursday, in your shoes, I'd go to a sports bar and get loaded 😎 But lol, i don't know why you've thrown in the towell.  It's not a done deal.  I'd wait for it to happen first -- there is still a chance it doesn't.

 

Edited April 23 by Skinsinparadise

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

The narrative that Maye “needs to sit a year” feels so manufactured to me. 😆

 

I know there’s a lot of smoke for NE to trade down. I think they stand pat and take Maye if he’s there. 

 

[DiscoBob]

I'd be really interested to see if there is an age skew to our QB preferences.  My speculation (with ZERO data to back this up.... so don't ask) is that older fans prefer Drake Maye and younger fans prefer Jayden Daniels.  It feels like Drake Maye fits the older prototypical QB mold that everyone used to look for - a player with tools that can grow into the upside.  Daniels seems to fit the more recent mold of many successful QBs.

 

Again.... all of this is just speculative

 

 

 

Edited April 23 by DiscoBob

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

So he's basically saying the coaches are forcing Daniels? Is that it? He doesn't say much and the audio cuts out like a third of it.

 

He goes coaches like Daniels.  Didn't say Peters disagrees but why not lets run with that.    And he started to say "concerns" about Maye, then it got cut off but I think he probably meant Peters sees Maye as a conquering hero. - the concerns word was just garbled enough where we can say BS there is concerns.

Edited April 23 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

The narrative that Maye “needs to sit a year” feels so manufactured to me. 😆

 

I know there’s a lot of smoke for NE to trade down. I think they stand pat and take Maye if he’s there. 

 

Maye doesn't need to sit. He needs to play. He's only played two years out of the last four. His issues mostly stem from lack of experience, and real NFL speed will allow him to figure out what he can and can't get away with.

 

He's not some super raw 4th round pick project. And for the most part the only guys taken in the 1st round that sit are guys drafted by playoff teams who have high quality established veteran starters already in place.

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He goes coaches like Daniels.  Didn't say Peters disagrees but why not lets run with that.    And he started to say "concerns" about Maye, then it got cut off but I think he probably meant Peters sees Maye as a conquering hero.

If Peters prefers Maye he better effing take Maye.

 

"Your job is to coach the team I give you." - Sonny Weaver jr. from Draft Day

[jg77]

1 minute ago, DiscoBob said:

I'd be really interested to see if there is an age skew to our QB preferences.  My speculation (with ZERO data to back this up.... so don't ask) is that older fans prefer Drake Maye and younger fans prefer Jayden Daniels.  It feels like Drake Maye fits the older prototypical QB mold that everyone used to look for - a player with tools that can grow into a high upside ceiling.  Daniels seems to fit the more recent mold of many successful QBs.

 

Again.... all of this is just speculative

 

I'd argue that the top 3 QBs in the league are not prototypical. They are unicorns (Mahomes, Lamar, Allen). This is a copycat league...everyone looking for the next unicorn.

[HTTRDynasty]

The only hope I have left is DJ’s gut 😂

 

 

[Idaho fan]

Just now, DiscoBob said:

I'd be really interested to see if there is an age skew to our QB preferences.  My speculation (with ZERO data to back this up.... so don't ask) is that older fans prefer Drake Maye and younger fans prefer Jayden Daniels.  It feels like Drake Maye fits the older prototypical QB mold that everyone used to look for - a player with tools that can grow into a high upside ceiling.  Daniels seems to fit the more recent mold of many successful QBs.

 

Again.... all of this is just speculative

Interesting... Could be.  though I lean Daniels and Im an old(er) white guy.  Ive read some annoying arguments (not here) that many are basing their preference because of race which is a tired and in my opinion annoying argument as it relates to this draft decision and thats all Ill say about that here before I get in trouble.

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

As good as Rome is, I can't see the Giants skipping McCarthy over him. 

 

Me either that's why I had McCarthy go at 4.

[Going Commando]

19 minutes ago, Conn said:

No…you install the offense that is the best fit for the best prospect you grade out “period”. You don’t make a pick based on an OC or his system at all, across the entire league there’s ONE Offensive Coordinator who’s been in place for more than two years. One.  

 

Yeah.  Kingsbury is the quintessential mercenary too, with a talent for latching on to bigger talents and failing upward.  I would make zero long term plans for anything concerning him.  I also wouldn't spend the second overall pick in the draft with a one year vision.  Recapturing 2012 is not the best this franchise can do, I'm not listening to assholes like RGIII telling me I should be happy with that.  I want us to tell the league to **** off with this "take Jayden Daniels and be happy and let the good teams get the franchise QB" crap.   

[Warhead36]

Jeremiah flipping is big. He's usually pretty spot on. 

[Dan T.]

23 minutes ago, Conn said:

That is called anecdotal evidence. I’m talking about empirical evidence over an extremely large sample size. One example of something never created a fallacy. Otherwise I could quote you here and say “there’s a fallacy in your argument and it’s named Josh Allen the 7th overall pick for the Bills in 2018”, or any other name I desired. See how silly that reads? Because it means nothing. I don’t need to care about Trey Lance or Washington’s specific QB troubles or any other singular data point, because I can zoom out and look at large pools of candidates and see that I’m right about where the highest hit rate is, by far. And even that’s still a low chance, to your point. But it’s statistically significant. 

 

My point was that using San Francisco as an example directly contradicts the argument you were making. Going with the last pick in the draft as starting QB and dumping the number 3 overall pick from 2 years ago isn't a very compelling argument that you have to pick a quarterback high if you have the chance.  

 

I don't know if the empirical evidence is overwhelming writ large.  I'm sure it skews slightly to success over failure with high draft QBs.  But I don't think it's an overwhelming hit vs. miss ratio. The NFL is littered with examples of high draft busts and lower round successes at QB.