The Official Roster Thread or similar ;)

[Anselmheifer]

McQueen, doesn’t it seem like AV would be a terribly flawed way to evaluate a player on the DL? It literally does not look at sacks, pressures, QB hits etc. It seems like a lesser DT starting on a very talented DL would get dragged up. A great DT on a poor unit will be dragged down. A lesser DL playing with an elite secondary, as was the case in New England a couple of years ago, will be dragged up. 
 

I just don’t know how you assign a numerical measurement to the performance of a player on the DL, without looking at sacks, pressures, QB hits, etc. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

I guess this would go here (for those who care about such things):

 

 

[Going Commando]

18 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

McQueen, doesn’t it seem like AV would be a terribly flawed way to evaluate a player on the DL? It literally does not look at sacks, pressures, QB hits etc. It seems like a lesser DT starting on a very talented DL would get dragged up. A great DT on a poor unit will be dragged down. A lesser DL playing with an elite secondary, as was the case in New England a couple of years ago, will be dragged up. 
 

I just don’t know how you assign a numerical measurement to the performance of a player on the DL, without looking at sacks, pressures, QB hits, etc. 

 

Sacks are part of AV for defensive players post 1982, when they began officially keeping them.  Pressures seems a bit subjective in the way it might get assigned to me, which could explain why it's not an official stat.  But I do think the lack of stats for linemen gets controlled for in AV via the way the creator weights postseason awards.

 

I don't think there is a strong or obvious coattails effect happening for DLs in AV.  If we look at the 2018 Patriots for evidence of this, it looks like the DBs got most of the AV for their defense, which does feel right.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2018_roster.htm

 

You can sort that roster by AV, and from there it looks like their D had:

- One DPOY caliber player in Gilmore with 16 AV

- One high end starter contributor in Duron Harmon with 9

- Another fringe high end starter in Van Noy with 8

- A handful of good starters in Trey Flowers, Lawrence Guy, Dont'a Hightower, and Devin McCourty with 7 each

- A couple of above average starters/high quality rotation players in Malcolm Brown and Patrick Chung with 6 each

- A couple of average starters and frequent rotation players in Jason McCourty and Elandon Roberts with 5 each

 

All of that feels right to me, and that comes out to 44 AV for those DBs, 20 for the DLs, and 20 for the LBs.  That seems like an accurate way to split the value of the contributions up for that defense.

 

You don't always see it, but I do think there can be a coattails effect for LBers though.  And I do think it showed up in our defense last year with Bostic getting 9 AV, and it's because he's a classic compiler--he gets lots of tackles.  If you look at his 2019 and his 2020 seasons you see very similar stats and I think it's fair to say that his level of play was roughly the same.  But in 2019 he got 6 AV, which is roughly above average starter territory, and in 2020 that similar contribution got him 9 AV, which is high end starter territory.  He got 3 extra AV because the defense got so much better, which means I think he road the coattails of the secondary and DL to get that extra AV.  So linebackers who specifically pile up a ton of tackles can have their AV totals inflated even though we might not consider their contributions particularly high quality, but if their team defense is still really bad then that can be a control for "garbage time" style stat padding.  For example, Zach Cunningham led the NFL in tackles last season but only got 7 AV--good starter territory--which feels right.

[Warhead36]

The run block win rate seems high. Pass block win rate seems kinda low actually.

[Koolblue13]

20 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The run block win rate seems high. Pass block win rate seems kinda low actually.

It would explain why Gibson had the highest percentage of positive yard runs, since any back since 2012.

[skinsfan93]

19 hours ago, Chris 44 said:

How many people could have predicted Logan Thomas being such a significant part of this offense 2 years ago? Fantastic job by whoever it was (TE coach?) to have brought him in.

If you look at my posts right after we signed Thomas I thought it was a good signing and thought we had our answer at TE. So 😝

 

I found what I wrote. 

“I said when we signed Thomas he would be our starter and I think he can be a real pleasant surprise. I’m interested in his development and him learning the nuances of the position.”

 

Edited June 7, 2021 by skinsfan93

[skinsfan93]

Just saw an IG post for media day and Bobby McCain looks big. I’m going on the record to say Kam Curl starts at FS and McCain starts at SS with Collins as a backup or being cut. I’m tired of how awful Landon is in coverage. 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

The reason Terry's AV is so much lower than Allen's and Payne's is because he put up fairly mediocre individual stats for a terrible offense and they were key contributors to a great defense.  Maybe he is a bigger talent than them in a vacuum (I don't think it's at all clear that he is), but he has not played better football than them.  That this has been so controversial tells me that WFT fans have a blind spot when it comes to Terry, but also that we underrate our DTs.  It's like we pay lip service to the fact that they are really good and that they're important... but don't really accept it.  In fact, yes they are really that good and that valuable, and losing them would likely drastically alter the quality of the defense since their contributions are so big.  DTs are routinely undervalued, particularly when they aren't sack generators, but they frequently power top level Ds, as they did for ours last year.  So this isn't a problem of perspective and value assessment unique to us.

 

You make a good argument that fans can bias things based on their preferences and subjectivity can creep into perceptions.  I agree.  You are doing the exact same thing though within your own argument.  And if you agree you are doing that,  I got no issue with your point on that subject.  We all factor context in our own ways to sell an argument.  I do it.  You do it.  We all do it.   Ditto as for what stats to emphasize. 

 

For example, Terry's stats were far from mediocre in my book.   1118 yards, 87 catches and 13 YPR is far from medicore. For those playing down Terry, context is ignored just as you say some do for Payne and Allen.   Terry was poised to have a monster season statistically but it was slowed down in the home stretch part of which was because not just one but by two high ankle sprains that would sideline many players.    But if that point doesn't fit the argument, its played down or ignored.  Just like you say some devalue defensive tackles when they don't have sexier stats like sacks.  

Edited June 7, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[carex]

11 hours ago, joeken24 said:

I envision this 46 man roster on Sundays. The highlighted guys are suiting up as backups on Sundays. Adam Humphries, AGG and/or Kelvin Harmon (whom I forgot to put on the roster) could suit up from time to time based on player status

 

we'll be dressing 48 players, as long as you include 8 OL.

[Koolblue13]

17 minutes ago, skinsfan93 said:

Just saw an IG post for media day and Bobby McCain looks big. I’m going on the record to say Kam Curl starts at FS and McCain starts at SS with Collins as a backup or being cut. I’m tired of how awful Landon is in coverage. 

McCain is a FS and Curl is the second best SS behind Collins, so I don't think that'll happen. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

McQueen, doesn’t it seem like AV would be a terribly flawed way to evaluate a player on the DL? It literally does not look at sacks, pressures, QB hits etc. It seems like a lesser DT starting on a very talented DL would get dragged up. A great DT on a poor unit will be dragged down. A lesser DL playing with an elite secondary, as was the case in New England a couple of years ago, will be dragged up. 
 

I just don’t know how you assign a numerical measurement to the performance of a player on the DL, without looking at sacks, pressures, QB hits, etc. 

 

Payne I think brings it home well.  Somehow he's a terrible player in 2019?  All of a sudden he's a stud in 2020?   What's the difference?  2020 defense > 2019 defense. I don't think it was Payne stunk and then become good in 2020.

 

I am not one of the people on the board who are especially high on Alex Smith but they give him a 0?  Wow.  The offense was punished across the board, Logan Thomas with a 4, Gibson a 5.  According to them since the offense wasn't good no one deserved a good grade. 

 

They seem to give you grades like its a party or punishment.  If you are in a class with some bad students it brings everyone's grade down.  If you are in a class with good students it brings everyone's grades up.

 

Why did Bostic have a career year AV wise last season?  It was because he was with the #2 defense.  The only time Bostic had a grade that came even close to that in his career was when he was Pittsburgh who also had a great defense.  

 

So according to AV, Bostic is worth twice the player L. Thomas was or Gibson.  And, Alex apparently was absolutely worthless.  Among other things.

 

Don't get me wrong I like to look at everything including AV.  But I didn't realize until today how flawed that metric is at least in my opinion.   

 

I don't have an argument with @stevemcqueen1 as to how he is using it to make a point.  I agree with him that top defenstive tackles can make a major dent for a defense and they deserve credit for it and they also are least likely to have the sexy stats.  And if AV sells that point, that's cool.  For years I've been banging the table for improved DT play and I think its key to any good defense.   Like I said the other day, I'd rate Scherff as a better player than either Allen or Payne (but its close) albeit i like them all.  But I'd keep Allen or Payne over Scherff in a heartbeat because I value the DT spot much more than OG. 

Edited June 7, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[PartyPosse]

I don’t know why people get so caught up on rankings and this and that. Anyone can devise a system of specific calculations to make just about any player look good. It’s a giant waste of time and literally means nothing.

[Vanguard]

I’m liking this roster from top to bottom.  And I’ll add that I think Ben St. Juste is going to be a beast.

[wit33]

8 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I don’t know why people get so caught up on rankings and this and that. Anyone can devise a system of specific calculations to make just about any player look good. It’s a giant waste of time and literally means nothing.

In June it means a lot.... okay.

Edited June 7, 2021 by wit33

[PartyPosse]

18 minutes ago, wit33 said:

In June it means a lot.... okay.

If I can devise a system which makes Dwayne Haskins a top 3 QB, will you promise to never cite a rating system again?

[HTTRDynasty]

This man has revoked his right to ever be our starting QB 😂

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

13 minutes ago, wit33 said:

In June it means a lot.... okay.

 

lol, anything to kill time in the long off season.  In July at least we got the countdown to training camp that month.  

 

I actually am enjoying the Terry debate some.  It brings me back to that draft where I defended him.  He's been a better player than even I thought he would be.  And I get everyone now likes him so its apples to oranges to that draft.  But I enjoyed defended him then.  And I am enjoying pushing him now.  This process is making me more jazzed about him as a player. 

 

Now I just need someone to come after Chase Young?  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[Die Hard]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

It would be amazing if he finally put it all together and was a consistent contributor. He certainly had shown some flashes.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[PartyPosse]

18 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

This man has revoked his right to ever be our starting QB 😂

now i'm glad he broke his leg.

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Now I just need someone to come after Chase Young?  

Were you not around during the first 5 weeks of last season???

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Koolblue13]

With all the speedy recievers we have now, it should really open things up for Gibson a lot. Pretty exciting. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, PartyPosse said:

 

Were you not around during the first 5 weeks of last season???

 

lol, i was.     I recall it well since I was the dude who posted the 20 clips or so to prove that Chase was indeed being doubled teamed like mad -- when some dude was claiming he wasn't being double teamed.  

[RawRebel]

1 hour ago, skinsfan93 said:

Just saw an IG post for media day and Bobby McCain looks big. I’m going on the record to say Kam Curl starts at FS and McCain starts at SS with Collins as a backup or being cut. I’m tired of how awful Landon is in coverage. 

Cutting Collins doesn't make financial sense. We're on the hook until next season with him.