Heinicke Hive: The LEGEND of Taylor Heinicke Thread

[Thinking Skins]

Continuing this thread, we have the following table

 

 

Not sure if you can see it but we're seeing Heinicke with 63.85 over the last 4 weeks, below only Garappolo (65.325), and Herbert (69.3), but above Wentz (61.1). Our opponent on This coming Sunday Dak Prescott  is averaging (46.675) over the last 4 weeks. And its been about that average consistently with him posting a 38.2 QBR last week. If Hurts returns to the Eagles when we play them, we see that he is also slumping right now with his QBR hitting 16.3 before his injury. 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Thinking Skins

[Thinking Skins]

14 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Had no idea that Carson Wentz is playing that well.

 

Dominant run game, good defense, strong quarterbacking.  Are the Colts a SB contender?

Well they're only 7-6 so while Wentz is playing well its not always leading to wins. They're right now in the 9th spot and play NE and Arizona in the next two weeks so they have an uphill battle. 

[NoVaSkins21]

While Heinicke has been very good during this 4-game stretch, he's also been very lucky with INTs that have been dropped.  Happened vs, TB, CAR, and OAK twice.  He needs to be more sound in his decision making or Trevon Diggs and that ballhawking Dal@ss defense will make him pay.  

[ODU AGGIE]

Heinicke's first read should be "where is Diggs?", and then he should go somewhere else. Now that may be an overkill type of statement, but I guess what I am really saying is that Diggs scares the begeebus out of me, and I hope Heinicke also has a healthy respect for him.

[Berggy9598]

12 hours ago, zskins said:

 

"I just know this team believes in Taylor Heinicke," Johnathan Allen said. "We're playing hard for him and he's going to lead us."

This was said after the most recent game so you're not exactly refuting the point the post you responded to made. 

[NewCliche21]

3 minutes ago, ODU AGGIE said:

Heinicke's first read should be "where is Diggs?", and then he should go somewhere else. Now that may be an overkill type of statement, but I guess what I am really saying is that Diggs scares the begeebus out of me, and I hope Heinicke also has a healthy respect for him.

 

Diggs and Parsons.  Parsons was in coverage like Holcomb a couple times except he effing nailed it against Dallas.

God I was wrong about that guy.

[zCommander]

2 minutes ago, Berggy9598 said:

This was said after the most recent game so you're not exactly refuting the point the post you responded to made. 

 

Nope. I was just adding to it.

 

[Jumbo]

14 hours ago, CTskin said:

 and you’re still naysaying like he’s no good and we shouldn’t put any stock in him.

 

one of the things i really have low tolerance for is posters making false attributions to other posters

 

 

 

to the best of my awareness this is an outlier for you and not one of your typically fine posting efforts 🤩 

[Berggy9598]

Eli Manning really?

 

Heinicke has been an absolute gem when factoring in expectations and circumstances, but lets pump the breaks. The most glaring issue the team must currently is we've scored over 20 points just twice in the last seven games, and that's just not going to be good enough to fulfill all this wide eyed optimism that he's anything more than a high end backup, which in and of itself is something we should be thrilled with. 

[Thinking Skins]

20 minutes ago, ODU AGGIE said:

Heinicke's first read should be "where is Diggs?", and then he should go somewhere else. Now that may be an overkill type of statement, but I guess what I am really saying is that Diggs scares the begeebus out of me, and I hope Heinicke also has a healthy respect for him.

I disagree. Diggs is allowing 15.7 yards per completion. Yeah he's getting a lot of ints but he's allowing a lot of targets and he's been targeted 82 times. Yes he has the ints but he is also beatable. 

[Thinking Skins]

17 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

Diggs and Parsons.  Parsons was in coverage like Holcomb a couple times except he effing nailed it against Dallas.

God I was wrong about that guy.

Parsons is scary but so was Crosby (no sacks), Taylor (1 sack), Reddick (1 sack). That a few plays a game but honestly I think Heinicke can escape and find holes in the zone especially if we have a shifty back to help out. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

7 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I disagree. Diggs is allowing 15.7 yards per completion. Yeah he's getting a lot of ints but he's allowing a lot of targets and he's been targeted 82 times. Yes he has the ints but he is also beatable. 

 

Definitely, hit Diggs with double moves all day long.  I think I read something like he's given up almost 1,000 receiving yards this season, and nobody else is anywhere near that.

[CapsSkins]

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Continuing this thread, we have the following table

 

 

Not sure if you can see it but we're seeing Heinicke with 63.85 over the last 4 weeks, below only Garappolo (65.325), and Herbert (69.3), but above Wentz (61.1). Our opponent on This coming Sunday Dak Prescott  is averaging (46.675) over the last 4 weeks. And its been about that average consistently with him posting a 38.2 QBR last week. If Hurts returns to the Eagles when we play them, we see that he is also slumping right now with his QBR hitting 16.3 before his injury. 

 

First off, let me say thank you for putting this together and posting. I really appreciate the insights.

 

With that out of the way, good god man! The former investment banker in me is weeping at that formatting. 😂 The urge to use consistent number rounding, format the labels, maybe shade them B&G, remove gridlines... I think I need to step outside and have a cigarette and I don't even smoke. 😂😂

[method man]

Diggs is the new Deltha O’Neal. Gets a lot of picks but is fundamentally an average corner at best

[Redd]

15 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

He's an interesting case. His numbers were more indicative of durability than skill. If he gets in it's ONLY because of those 2 SB rings.

2 rings plus 2 super bowl MVPs and played for the New York Giants. Eli is a lock for the HoF. Only question is if he's 1st ballot.

[zCommander]

22 minutes ago, Berggy9598 said:

Eli Manning really?

 

Heinicke has been an absolute gem when factoring in expectations and circumstances, but lets pump the breaks. The most glaring issue the team must currently is we've scored over 20 points just twice in the last seven games, and that's just not going to be good enough to fulfill all this wide eyed optimism that he's anything more than a high end backup, which in and of itself is something we should be thrilled with. 

 

At this point we don't know what we have. 5 more games to go and maybe more. I do know, however, we are winning with him and our D. He can easily be a starter next year too though. 

[wit33]

Any chance some one can provide insights if any on if the opposing defenses scheme for Heinekes run ability? 

[wit33]

I’m going to say it, at this CURRENT point in time, the Washington offense is better than the Bills and Chiefs. The two offenses mentioned are struggling mightily and have zero identity. Both QBs don’t know what they’re seeing out there. 

 

Yes, I said it. 
 

 

[Ghost of]

1 hour ago, method man said:

Diggs is the new Deltha O’Neal. Gets a lot of picks but is fundamentally an average corner at best

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, CapsSkins said:

 

First off, let me say thank you for putting this together and posting. I really appreciate the insights.

 

With that out of the way, good god man! The former investment banker in me is weeping at that formatting. 😂 The urge to use consistent number rounding, format the labels, maybe shade them B&G, remove gridlines... I think I need to step outside and have a cigarette and I don't even smoke. 😂😂

I understand completely. Honestly this was just for my own amusement until I decided to share it. The colors, formatting and everything else was just to see if I saw a pattern. I wanted to look at the game by game QBRs to see if I saw trends of play like we see that Heinicke is in somewhat of a good stretch (though I would say games with 0 ints are better than games with 1 int), But seeing this across the last 5 games gives you some real understanding of how well he's playing. And you can also see Dak struggling (among other QBs). Part of that is him not having his WRs, but even when he had his guys back last time he still put up a low QBR. And its not just QBR, but his completion percentage and passer rating were also down. And if we look at this year compared to previous years we see that Dak is not running the ball almost at all. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

29 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I’m going to say it, at this CURRENT point in time, the Washington offense is better than the Bills and Chiefs. The two offenses mentioned are struggling mightily and have zero identity. Both QBs don’t know what they’re seeing out there. 

 

Yes, I said it. 
 

 

An off-season worth of DC’s diving in on an offense can make even the great ones look average or worse.

 

A cautionary tale.

[London Kev]

4 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

So I was doing some more QBR Analysis of the league's QBs and trying to surmise a record based on this. Here's a look at some QBs in the league and their number of games with a QBR above 60 (counted as a W) compared to the number of games with a QBR below 40 (counted as a L). I'm ignoring QBRs between 40 and 60. 

 

josh-allen (6-3)

tom-brady (8-1)

teddy-bridgewater (3-6)

derek-carr (6-4)

kirk-cousins (6-4)

jimmy-garoppolo (4-3)

taylor-heinicke (4-4)

justin-herbert (6-2)

jalen-hurts (5-3)

patrick-mahomes (4-2)

dak-prescott (4-5)

matt-ryan (4-6)

matthew-stafford (8-2)

ryan-tannehill (6-4)

carson-wentz (8-3)

 

I like these game by game looks at QBR instead of an overall look at QBR because you can get a feel for how they played throughout the game. And you don't have the effect of one bad game diluting the impact of the other games. 

 

That's some nice work, except it triggered my OCD and I had to see it in the correct order 🙂. Hope you don't mind.

 

Name	>60	<40
Tom Brady	8	1
Matthew Stafford	8	2
Carson Wentz	8	3
Justin Herbert	6	2
Josh Allen	6	3
Derek Carr	6	4
Kirk Cousins	6	4
Ryan Tannehill	6	4
Jalen Hurts	5	3
Patrick Mahomes	4	2
Jimmy Garoppolo	4	3
Taylor Heinicke	4	4
Dak Prescott	4	5
Matt Ryan	4	6
Teddy Bridgewater	3	6

[Thinking Skins]

@London Kev how did you do that? 

[CapsSkins]

22 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I understand completely. Honestly this was just for my own amusement until I decided to share it. The colors, formatting and everything else was just to see if I saw a pattern. I wanted to look at the game by game QBRs to see if I saw trends of play like we see that Heinicke is in somewhat of a good stretch (though I would say games with 0 ints are better than games with 1 int), But seeing this across the last 5 games gives you some real understanding of how well he's playing. And you can also see Dak struggling (among other QBs). Part of that is him not having his WRs, but even when he had his guys back last time he still put up a low QBR. And its not just QBR, but his completion percentage and passer rating were also down. And if we look at this year compared to previous years we see that Dak is not running the ball almost at all. 

 

It's a good insight. And I would add to that, Heinicke is doing this against a 1st place schedule. These opponents aren't all top of the standings necessarily but they aren't bottom-feeders either like we benefitted from last year.

[London Kev]

1 minute ago, Thinking Skins said:

@London Kev how did you do that? 

 

Copy and paste into excel.

Use the 'Text to Columns' function to separate the text.

Use the 'Find and Replace' function to get rid of the brackets and hyphens.

Use the 'Proper' function to capitalise the names.

Then finally use the 'Sort' function.