The Vaccine Thread

[Sticksboi05]

1 hour ago, Dont Taze Me Bro said:

 

I don't know about you, but I'd rather get a booster after 8 months and get my protection back in the 90%+ protection again (against stopping any infection) than have it be around 60% like a bad flu shot year.  Regardless if the chance of severe infection is still extremely low.  

 

I think the question is - from a broad perspective, do we get more out of moderately decreasing the odds of symptomatic disease, or getting more shots to people who have no protection here and abroad?

 

The WHO and many virologists are disappointed in the focus on boosters vs. getting initial vaccination to people at all costs. You could argue certainly that they can be done simultaneously but there's fair arguments on the other side too.

 

Vaccine efficacy against infection is incredibly hard to track with real-world data because of all the confounders i.e. how often are people in each group being tested, what is the level of natural immunity in the community, behavioral differences, is a positive test actually infectious virus vs. non-viable particles in your nose with a bunch of antibodies on them etc.

 

If the next 50 million U.S. doses went to unvaccinated it'd be significantly more impactful than boosters. But yes, you can also argue, well we can still do outreach to those folks on the fence and do this. I just foresee this being really messy and there's already talk of wow so I am now signing up to get three shots in less than a year.

Edited August 19, 2021 by Sticksboi05

[skinsmarydu]

 

The elderly and children should have gone first, with the rest of us in the middle. 

If you want kids in schools, vaccinate them.   That gets everyone better protected.

IT'S SCIENCE. 

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

21 minutes ago, Jabbyrwock said:

Apologies: IAH...Houston...im not a natural phone typer.

Live look-in at Jabberwock’s layover in  HTown.

 

 

[86 Snyder]

Does anyone happen to have a good, recent link to show what percentage of covid hospitalizations are vaccinated now?  I keep hearing its 1-2% but would love a link.

 

Got in an argument tonight and would love something to that effect.

 

Im also supposed to show evidence of Tucker Carlson lying but im pretty goddam sure I got that one covered lol.

Edited August 19, 2021 by 86 Snyder

[China]

5 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

Does anyone happen to have a good, recent link to show what percentage of covid hospitalizations are vaccinated now?  I keep hearing its 1-2% but would love a link.

 

Got in an argument tonight and would love something to that effect.

 

Im also supposed to show evidence of Tucker Carlson lying but im pretty goddam sure I got that one covered lol.

 

 

Quote

Fully vaccinated people are far less likely to become hospitalized or die from Covid-19 than those who aren’t, according to the CDC. Nearly 59.5% of Americans aged 12 and older have been fully vaccinated.

 

The federal health agency has said nearly all recent Covid-19 cases and deaths are among the unvaccinated—a point of frustration among many doctors and nurses who spent months touting the safety and efficacy of vaccines. The percentage of vaccinated people who have contracted Covid-19, or breakthrough cases, is about 0.1%.

 

Link

 

Quote

Breakthrough infections accounted for 12 percent to 24 percent of Covid-related hospitalizations in the states, The Times found. The number of deaths was small, so the proportion among vaccinated people is too variable to be useful, although it does appear to be higher than the C.D.C. estimate of 0.5 percent.

 

If breakthrough infections are becoming common, “it’s also going to demonstrate how well these vaccines are working, and that they’re preventing hospitalization and death, which is really what we asked our vaccines to do,” said Anne Rimoin, an epidemiologist at the University of California, Los Angeles.

 

Link

 

Quote

All three reports measure vaccine effectiveness, which compares the rates of infection or hospitalization among vaccinated people with the rates among people who had not been vaccinated. Twenty percent of new infections and 15 percent of hospitalizations from covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, were among vaccinated people.

 

Link

 

 

I think the take home message is wear a damn mask, social distance, and take precautions as if you haven't been vaccinated.

 

[NoCalMike]

So am I understanding correctly that protection against getting covid drops after 8 months (or so) but the protection is still there against severe sickness & death at the same rate, as far as they know from studies currently collecting data?  Or.....is protection in it's entirety dropping around the 8 month mark?

 

It's sad to say but at this point there are so many people out there not vaccinated I almost feel like I will end up getting it one day regardless, and I want to know how the booster factors in with specific protection(s).

[China]

It would be nice if they could make a booster that is slightly different so that it specifically targets variants like delta.

[TradeTheBeal!]

27 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

Does anyone happen to have a good, recent link to show what percentage of covid hospitalizations are vaccinated now?  I keep hearing its 1-2% but would love a link.

 

Got in an argument tonight and would love something to that effect.

 

Im also supposed to show evidence of Tucker Carlson lying but im pretty goddam sure I got that one covered lol.

Can’t speak to your percentages, but I can tell you this.  Two things…

 

1.  There is no evidence, none, that the vaccines are ineffective.  The only discussion is about how many people are being kept out of the ICU.  A **** Load?  Maybe less than that?  Improve your odds…

 

2.  Every single bit of data is skewed right now, there is nothing clean for anybody under 70.  Whether it’s Israel or Florida or Germany or wherever…”65% adults vaxxed” means that 95% of 80+ year olds are vaxxed and 40% of under 50 are vaxxed.  That was how every country rolled it out.  High risk first.

 

So when you hear that the vaccine is only 60% effective or whatever, ask yourself…Are you 88 years old?

 

 

[TheGoodBits]

8 hours ago, China said:

It would be nice if they could make a booster that is slightly different so that it specifically targets variants like delta.

Non-scientist weighing in my with non-scientific understanding: my impression of what makes delta more contagious, possibly more dangerous, and more prone to breakthrough cases is not that it’s spike proteins are different from what the vaccines were initially developed to target. Delta has mutated to rapidly reproduce and cause those that have it to have much higher viral loads. The result is that even vaccinated people’s immune systems have a hard time overcoming the amount of virus people are initially exposed to. So they catch it, sometimes become symptomatic and contagious, and usually are able to get over it without much issue. 
 

Those factors with delta, combined with a generally waning level immunity from the vaccines after 6+ months, and you have a significantly higher level of breakthrough cases, even though the original vaccines are still effective against it. 

[mistertim]

10 hours ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

Im also supposed to show evidence of Tucker Carlson lying but im pretty goddam sure I got that one covered lol.

 

His mouth is moving.

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

Non-scientist weighing in my with non-scientific understanding: my impression of what makes delta more contagious, possibly more dangerous, and more prone to breakthrough cases is not that it’s spike proteins are different from what the vaccines were initially developed to target. Delta has mutated to rapidly reproduce and cause those that have it to have much higher viral loads. The result is that even vaccinated people’s immune systems have a hard time overcoming the amount of virus people are initially exposed to. So they catch it, sometimes become symptomatic and contagious, and usually are able to get over it without much issue. 
 

Those factors with delta, combined with a generally waning level immunity from the vaccines after 6+ months, and you have a significantly higher level of breakthrough cases, even though the original vaccines are still effective against it. 

 

delta has a few mutations related to the coding of the spike protein, including a part that is likely a site for antibody recognition.

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-these-mutations-made-delta-the-most-transmissible-covid-variant-yet

 

While on one hand, the changes to the vaccine to recognize these changes (and changes in the gamma variant) would be relatively simple and minimal I suspect the FDA would be hesitant to approve them without at least some testing especially as the old vaccines are still doing a very good job.

 

There is some possibility that updating the vaccine to take into account these mutations would have negative affects on human health that the original vaccine doesn't have.

 

And I suspect the companies don't have much interest in paying for new testing if they can get people to take the old ones.

 

So I suspect, we'll continue with the original vaccine until there is a variant extremely good at escaping it.

Edited August 19, 2021 by PeterMP

[PeterMP]

10 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

So am I understanding correctly that protection against getting covid drops after 8 months (or so) but the protection is still there against severe sickness & death at the same rate, as far as they know from studies currently collecting data?  Or.....is protection in it's entirety dropping around the 8 month mark?

 

It's sad to say but at this point there are so many people out there not vaccinated I almost feel like I will end up getting it one day regardless, and I want to know how the booster factors in with specific protection(s).

 

As somebody else has pointed out doing real world effectiveness studies on vaccines is hard (so many variables).  But I'd be shocked if the protection of getting covid after 8 months dropped, but the protection against severe sickness and death don't change.

 

They might not fall to the same extent and might still be very significant (which to my knowledge does appear to be the case), but I'd be shocked if they weren't decreased.  Just basic, you can't get severely sick and die if you don't get it.  Increasing the number of people that get it will increase the number of people that get severely sick and die.  Though the relationship doe not appear to be linear (1:1).

Edited August 19, 2021 by PeterMP

[Sticksboi05]

10 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

So am I understanding correctly that protection against getting covid drops after 8 months (or so) but the protection is still there against severe sickness & death at the same rate, as far as they know from studies currently collecting data?  Or.....is protection in it's entirety dropping around the 8 month mark?

 

It's sad to say but at this point there are so many people out there not vaccinated I almost feel like I will end up getting it one day regardless, and I want to know how the booster factors in with specific protection(s).

 

There's a lot of variables. Most of this worry is based on data from Israel, which as a ton of confounders and has been questioned by doctors in the country. That said, even the questioning of the data doesn't negate the waning hypothesis.

 

UK and Canada meanwhile are not seeing anything of the sort, Canada's pandemic right now is miles below America's. Part of that could be because those two countries spaced second doses out 8-12 weeks after the first, which could end up giving much more durable protection than 3-4 weeks. Studies are still being done but there is evidence that spacing out doses is better.

 

There is no evidence the vaccines are plummeting against severe illness or hospitalization, which is their primary goal. A respiratory virus like SARS COV 2 is very hard to keep from getting a positive test. A positive test does not mean you are diseased, it simply means viral RNA was found in your nose. Many asymptomatic vaccinated people will test positive without having a full on outbreak of replication in their bodies. Immune system-compromised virus that cannot infect others in your nose can give a positive test.

 

You are almost assuredly going to be infected at some point as will everyone else. This is going to turn endemic, nobody is going to dodge the virus for decades, it will make its way through the population, the goal is to limit its damage. We have vaccines now, hopefully antivirals by the end of the year (Merck and Pfizer have trials). People need to start accepting the fact that they will get SARS COV 2 inside of them. More below from the experts:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2021 by Sticksboi05

[TMK9973]

13 hours ago, Dont Taze Me Bro said:

I don't know about you, but I'd rather get a booster after 8 months and get my protection back in the 90%+ protection again (against stopping any infection) than have it be around 60% like a bad flu shot year.  Regardless if the chance of severe infection is still extremely low.  

I understand that.  

I don't have the same logic.

If I catch covid but have minor to no symptoms -Why do I care?

My 2nd shot knocked me out HARD for about 36 hours.  It was 100% worth it to reduce my risk of getting seriously sick and spreading it.

 

but to stop my 1 in 26 chance of getting it and only 1 in 900 chance of having anything other the minor (or no) symptoms (Those odds come from one of the studies that CDC released yesterday and include ALL age groups.  When under 60 was actually even lower), meh.

 

Maybe a yearly booster shot?

Currently the WHO is very much against booster shots for everyone and they think it would be much better served focusing on getting the rest of the world get their 1st 2 shots to really stop variants.  

 

I want to add _again -I am not anti Vax. EVERYONE should get the 1st two shots ASAP and frankly -I question peoples judgement on those that do not.

I am not against anyone getting a booster shot. For those over 60 or with Covid High Risk issues -Its prob the right thing to do.

But being under 60 and healthy - The data doesn't seem to support it and the experts are def not in agreement.  

Edited August 19, 2021 by TMK9973

[China]

Study: Fully vaccinated people with "breakthrough" COVID Delta infections carry as much virus as the unvaccinated

 

A study by University of Oxford scientists has found that people who contract the Delta variant of COVID-19 after being fully vaccinated carry a similar amount of the coronavirus as those who catch the disease and have not been inoculated. The researchers stressed that vaccination still offers good protection against catching the disease in the first place, and protects against getting seriously ill with it.

 

The survey of real-world U.K. data indicates, however, that vaccinated people with "breakthrough" infections could still pose a significant infection risk to those who have not been vaccinated.

 

"With Delta, infections occurring following two vaccinations had similar peak viral burden to those in unvaccinated individuals," the study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, concludes. Viral "burden" or viral load refers to how much coronavirus-infected people carry and thus "shed," or release into the environment around them, where it can potentially infect others.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[TMK9973]

13 minutes ago, China said:

Study: Fully vaccinated people with "breakthrough" COVID Delta infections carry as much virus as the unvaccinated

 

A study by University of Oxford scientists has found that people who contract the Delta variant of COVID-19 after being fully vaccinated carry a similar amount of the coronavirus as those who catch the disease and have not been inoculated. The researchers stressed that vaccination still offers good protection against catching the disease in the first place, and protects against getting seriously ill with it.

 

The survey of real-world U.K. data indicates, however, that vaccinated people with "breakthrough" infections could still pose a significant infection risk to those who have not been vaccinated.

 

"With Delta, infections occurring following two vaccinations had similar peak viral burden to those in unvaccinated individuals," the study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, concludes. Viral "burden" or viral load refers to how much coronavirus-infected people carry and thus "shed," or release into the environment around them, where it can potentially infect others.

 

Click on the link for the full article

It does seem pretty clear that if you are fully vaccinated and get it there is a point where you will have as much a viral load as a unvaxed person.

BUT - The key there is 1st you have to get it (Still much less chance once you are vaccinated) AND for how long. Vax people may have the same viral load but only for 1 day or so vs unvaxed who can carry it for multiplie days.  

 

But I DO think this is where the boosters come in.  Logic being if a booster reduces the chance of break through cases (Even if the person doesnt get sick) that it reduces the amount of people that could spread it thereby helping reduce cases.  

I get it.  But how long do we do that? Get a booster every 6 to 8 months for the rest of our lives?  All to avoid the small chance of catching a virus that, if you have been vaccinated, prob wont have much effect on you?  

 

 

12 hours ago, 86 Snyder said:

Does anyone happen to have a good, recent link to show what percentage of covid hospitalizations are vaccinated now?  I keep hearing its 1-2% but would love a link.

 

Got in an argument tonight and would love something to that effect.

 

Im also supposed to show evidence of Tucker Carlson lying but im pretty goddam sure I got that one covered lol.

I do for VA. Not for the country.

 

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/

 

98.34% of all cases are those not fully vaccinated.

97.24% of all hospitalizations are those not fully vaccinated. 

98.17% of deaths are those not fully vaccinated. 

[PartyPosse]

1 hour ago, TMK9973 said:

I am not against anyone getting a booster shot. For those over 60 or with Covid High Risk issues -Its prob the right thing to do.

But being under 60 and healthy - The data doesn't seem to support it and the experts are def not in agreement.  

I’m way under 60 and healthy and vaccinated. I also used to run 4-5 times a week 3-5 miles. 
 

It’s been two months since I got covid. I still can’t run. 
 

So, **** the arguments against boosters. You don’t realize how much you’ll want it until it’s too late.

[TMK9973]

2 hours ago, PeterMP said:

As somebody else has pointed out doing real world effectiveness studies on vaccines is hard (so many variables).  But I'd be shocked if the protection of getting covid after 8 months dropped, but the protection against severe sickness and death don't change.

This wouldnt shock me and here is why.

The way I understand it from a layman perspective - Is the vaccine is teaching our immune system how to beat covid if our body gets infected with covid.  The 1st shot includes what looks like the Spike protein and shows the body how to fight it. The 2nd one is kinda like a test run where the spike protein shows up again, the instructions are still there and the body attacks it.  Kinda like training and then attacking.  

 

So after some months -I can see where when the body has not seen the spike protein in a bit - it may not be as quick to react and remember how to fight it, allowing a break through infection.  However the body was trained, so if that break through happens, then the body remembers how to fight it and does.  

 

Again -That is how i see it as a pure layman.  

[TMK9973]

Just now, PartyPosse said:

I’m way under 60 and healthy and vaccinated. I also used to run 4-5 times a week 3-5 miles. 
 

It’s been two months since I got covid. I still can’t run. 
 

So, **** the arguments against boosters. You don’t realize how much you’ll want it until it’s too late.

Understood. Questions -Did you catch covid after being fully vaccinated?

How much after being fully vaccinated?

Would a 3rd booster have made a difference at all?  (That one prob can't be answered).

 

There is possible and probable.  It is POSSIBILE to get covid after getting 2 shots. Its POSSIBILE to get really sick even after 2 shots. And its POSSIBILE that a 3rd booster can reduce that risk (although its also POSSIBILE that after a 3rd shot you still get covid and get sick).

But thats not probable.  It is probable that if you have had 2 shots you wont get it and even if you did get it, you wont be really sick.  and does a 3rd booster really change those odds?  (I dont have the answer).

 

Example -I think flying a plane is pretty safe.  It is possible that when I board a plane It will crash and possible that if it crashes I could die.  Sitting in the back row in a middle seat reduces my chance of dying IF the plan I am on crashes (And it COULD happen).

But what is probable is the plane wont crash and if it does -Where i am sitting wont really change my odds enough for me to pick the back row middle seat when i am flying. 

 

(and i hate making these posts cause i know i sound like a anti vaxer. And I'm not. I'm just explaining the reason why as of right now, i will not get a booster even thought i am at 8 months since my 2nd shot in 1 week).

I am also 100% willing to change. If the consensus around the experts say they reviewed the data and a 3rd booster shot will significantly reduce my odds of getting sick from covid and passing it on to children and others - I will do that.  But that is far from the consensus right now.  

 

[purbeast]

4 minutes ago, TMK9973 said:

Example -I think flying a plane is pretty safe.  It is possible that when I board a plane It will crash and possible that if it crashes I could die.  Sitting in the back row in a middle seat reduces my chance of dying IF the plan I am on crashes (And it COULD happen).

But what is probable is the plane wont crash and if it does -Where i am sitting wont really change my odds enough for me to pick the back row middle seat when i am flying. 

 

Totally unrelated to the thread topic at hand, but I watched a show literally 2 days ago that talked about commercial flying being the safest method of transportation in the country.  

 

Per 1 billion miles traveled, .07 people die.

 

So I was curious how it compared to car accidents and came across this.

 

https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2020-fatality-data-show-increased-traffic-fatalities-during-pandemic

 

Quote

Preliminary data from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) shows vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in 2020 decreased by about 430.2 billion miles, or about a 13.2-percent decrease. The fatality rate for 2020 was 1.37 fatalities per 100 million VMT, up from 1.11 fatalities per 100 million VMT in 2019. 

 

So miles driven in 2020 were less (guessing due to covid) and it still w as 13.7 deaths per 1 billion miles traveled.

 

That is pretty significant difference.  Flying commercially is literally 195 times safer than driving.  That is huge.

 

Just thought it was interesting and kind of relevant to what you posted so passing it along.

[PartyPosse]

8 minutes ago, TMK9973 said:

(and i hate making these posts cause i know i sound like a anti vaxer. And I'm not. I'm just explaining the reason why as of right now, i will not get a booster even thought i am at 8 months since my 2nd shot in 1 week).

I am also 100% willing to change. If the consensus around the experts say they reviewed the data and a 3rd booster shot will significantly reduce my odds of getting sick from covid and passing it on to children and others - I will do that.  But that is far from the consensus right now.  

You can do what you want, I don’t know why you’d be so vehemently against it unless you think there are some detriments to it, which in a way does make you an anti-Vaxxer (even though I know you’re not). Like I said, you don’t realize the potential repercussions until it’s too late.

 

Also, I got J&J back in April, so it’d been about 2 months when I contracted it. Being in Vegas at a casino, it’s not all the surprising which is why I do think context matters. Being in a Petri dish like Vegas I do think yin need to take extra precautions than say a rural town in Idaho that doesn’t get a lot of travelers coming through.

[TMK9973]

1 minute ago, PartyPosse said:

You can do what you want, I don’t know why you’d be so vehemently against it unless you think there are some detriments to it, which in a way does make you an anti-Vaxxer (even though I know you’re not). Like I said, you don’t realize the potential repercussions until it’s too late.

 

Also, I got J&J back in April, so it’d been about 2 months when I contracted it. Being in Vegas at a casino, it’s not all the surprising which is why I do think context matters. Being in a Petri dish like Vegas I do think yin need to take extra precautions than say a rural town in Idaho that doesn’t get a lot of travelers coming through.

yeah -I guess im against it in general is that I would rather the focus be on getting everyone the 2 shots here, and around the world.  I feel that is the best way to beat this thing and that in addition, if we start pushing for things that the data doesn't fully support, it will hurt the efforts to get those on the fence (My sister when from Anti vax to vax hesitant - she wants to travel end of this year so she started leaning towards getting the shots and now is pushing back with the "We still dont seem to know enough. Thinking I'll wait

 

But you actually stumbled on another great point.  The J&J seems to be the lease effective against delta.  

I also would love to see data about if those that got the J&J got a booster of Moderna or Pfizer -Would that be a big help?  

 

 

[tshile]

I’m not against the booster but I need to do some more looking before I take it. 
 

my current understanding is this is being driven by the Biden administration. 
 

not the cdc, or other reputable health agencies. 
 

I have a problem with that. The whitehouse should be advocating what the cdc/fda put out - not using political pressure on them (which is what a public statement is, cause they could have easily had a closed door meeting on the manner if it was purely concern/interest)

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

[purbeast]

11 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

 

To be fair, while he is a professional athlete, he is also clinically obese and has a very high BMI.

 

I wonder how much being that much overweight had to do with how bad he had it.