2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Koolblue13]

31 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I hear you, I'm just saying that as good as this TE crop is, and it's amazing at least at the top (and I think in general), more than likely most TE's taken will only see a measurable impact in the passing game by '22 at the earliest, which is why I think it's better to try to trade for second and third year TE's who've already got their in line blocking training in, and are better prepared to contribute. Going after a Fant or a Hockenson this year, or a Goedert or Andrews last year, or an Everett/Jonnu in '18 or '19, that way you capture 2 years on their rookie deal and they're more ready to contribute. 

 

Pitts and a few others are ridiculous talents, and could be exceptions to the rule in the same way Fant was last year, or Kittle back in '17 etc, but I'd rather swoop in and get guys like Jonnu or Everett on the cheap when they still have two years left on the rookie deal, but some training at the NFL level. Seems like a cost effective approach to me. 

I'm all about the double down on the position and have been for years. Sign a top TE, trade for an up and comer and draft one high and late. I've felt the same about FS for years too.

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm sure it's completely different this time.

 

The only thing Haskins and Fields have in common is that they ran mostly the same offense. From a traits perspective, they're completely different QBs. 

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

The only thing Haskins and Fields have in common is that they ran mostly the same offense. From a traits perspective, they're completely different QBs. 

I only compared them to where they're from.

[The Consigliere]

On 10/15/2020 at 10:20 AM, philibusters said:

Complete these sentences:

 

Trevor Lawrence is the best NFL QB draft prospect since...

 

Penai Sewell is the best NFL LT draft prospect since...

 

Micah Parsons is the best NFL 4-3 LB draft prospect since...

 

Ja'Marr Chase is the best NFL WR draft prospect since...

 

Nobody said he was top 5, but people are saying he is a game changer.  TJ Hockenson in 2019 and Eric Ebron  in 2014 where the last two to go top 10.  Before that you have to go back to 2006 when former Terp and Redskin Vernon Davis went number 6 overall after running a 4.38 forty at the NFL combine.

 

Lawrence is "since Luck"

I don't know enough about Sewell or Parsons and would have to look through drafts w/regards to Sewel, he's definitely better than the overhyped guys that went to the Chiefs and Jags in

'13 (Fisher and Joeckel). Probably have to go back to Jake Long back in 2008, because I do remember people thinking Trent Williams was a bit of an athletic projection, and for a while he and Okung were neck and neck.

 

Chase is the best WR prospect since the AJ Green/Julio Jones in '11 (although '14 ended up being the end all be all of WR drafts, at the time, none of those guys had the same hype as AJ Green and Julio Jones). 

[The Consigliere]

On 10/15/2020 at 10:31 AM, Riggo#44 said:

 

That's real, real high praise. Side note--I did track and field in HS, and actually "competed" against Ogden. I say "competed" as I was in the same events as him: Shot put and discus. He threw the shot put farther than I threw the discus.

 

We're sitting at 2: Fields or Sewell?

 

Fields every time. 

[The Consigliere]

On 10/15/2020 at 11:11 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

That was my point, QB > LT.   So yeah I think we all or at least most here agree on that.

 

 

I am thinking 3-13.  They win one of the Giants game and then some other random one, maybe the Cincy one.

 

It's not always true, but at least in our history, we tend to win at least one out of left field game a season when we're really terrible, wins that just flat out don't make sense in the context of a lost season which is why I imagine we'll hit 3 or 4 wins, especially w/a coach who players are unlikely to quit on. I am deathly afraid of 5 wins, and just enormously frustrated that we didn't trade pick assets last year for '21 picks. Felt the same way during the '17 and '19 offseasons. When you don't have a QB plan in place, you should be positioning assets to trade up in drafts, not just peeling picks off the board at slot trade after trade. Unless I'm mistaken our only extra ammo is a likely top 20 pick in round 3 (that Niner third is going to be higher than expected because of all their injuries).  Would not shock me if they finish 6-10 or 7-9 just due to the injuries and schedule, so my guess is our picks on day's 1 and 2 will be something like:

 

5th

37th

69th

80th

 

Wonder what we'd have to give up to move up into a top two spot and take a QB, we can say goodbye to our '22 1st in a trade up in addition to other assets, but I'd still do it, especially considering how the '22 draft looks for now compared to '21. 

 

Here's hoping we lose out and don't have to trade anything (other than maybe vets for other goodies). 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

On 10/15/2020 at 12:27 PM, carex said:

 

I'm not blaming fans for the failure, I'm blaming fans for their attitude.

 

No one is forcing them to be fans.  Snyder is not taking their money at gunpoint.  If the team brings them no happiness, move on, go away, stop talking about them, stop thinking about them, and stop bringing down fans who don't share their views

 

This is not sending it back ala restaurant service.  This is walking into the same restaurant even though you hate it, shouting to your fellow doners "This restaurant is terrible, the food will never improve, nothing they do will make things better, everyone is a fool for eating here," at least every Sunday and planning to come back the next week or day

 

It doesn't work like that for most fans. Few fans actually have an active choice. The vast bulk of fans our trained by their parent(s), or an older sibling in whom to be a fan of. I had no choice, I was four years old when my brother taught me to be a redskins fan. My parents moved to DC from the bay area in '68, and then moved back to the bay area a month or so before I was born in '74, and my brother managed to become a redskins fan in the few years he lived there after his birth. 

 

Fandom isn't logic based, as I'm sure it's tiresome to read, fan is short for fanatic/fanaticism. It's not based on logic or reason, it's based on in group loyalty established as you're being enculturated by your environment, why else would normally "anti-elite" Republicans in the Deep South who never attended Alabama or Auburn be willing to poison hundred year old tree's over a blood feud related to the annual Iron Bowl? The vast bulk of those guys willing to get into brawls, and even maim one another never even attended the University in the first place. The reason is simple, in group loyalty based on sports fanaticism. I sometimes speculate to myself that part of the reason war has been on the decline in recent decades is because a lot of that blood lust is exercised through sports, and fandom related to it. Just a thought.

 

Anyway, it would be lovely if people could just choose their teams, but other than bandwagoners, that's exceptionally rare. I was made into a Redskins/Bullets/Caps fan by my brother, I'm born and raised in the bay area about a half an hour south of San Francisco, shouldn't be a DC Sports fan, but I am because of him, and am connected to you guys and the people at CPND exclusively through these forums which I first joined in '02 or '03 and '96 respectively. Every once in a while in political forums I'm reminded of the stark differences outside of sports fandom, because my politics is every bit that of a born and raised bay area kid just as the bulk of Redskins fans politics tend to be shaped by being from Northern Virginia, DC or Maryland. 

 

Needless to say, this isn't something you can change. The only sport I've ever been able to change fandom's with is soccer and that's because I'm a USMNT fan first, and a club fan second, so I tend to follow clubs where our players are appreciated and signed (Dortmund in particular but plenty of others too) but in terms of fandom since I was a child, I was inculcated in those fandoms as a four/five/six year old, and that's that. There's no changing it. It is what it is. If I could change it, I would, my wife would sure appreciate it, as she's more than well sick of my redskins fandom which as far as she can tell is nothing but self-flagellation. The one positive of redskins fandom for me is that Snyder has nearly killed it dead. I can't be a fan of another team, but I barely pay attention to anything these days other than the draft because what's on the field on sunday's is generally horrific. 

[The Consigliere]

21 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Usually everyone gets better in the span between college and NFL veterancy.  But LeVeon was a stud at Michigan St.  I was a big fan of him his in that 2012 season and he was one of my hits.  He was definitely a patient and pacey runner back in college, and a freakishly good athlete for his size.  Style built on the foundation of that devastating fullspeed inside cut that completely pantsed defenders flowing into outside gaps naturally thinking that was his trajectory.  But he had a lot of spins and hurdles in his game at Michigan St and I think the hurdle was kind of what he was known for coming out of college thanks to Sports Center.

 

Watch this highlight reel from Bell:

 

 

Now watch this highlight reel of Najee Harris right after:

 

 

 

Same size and build.  Same explosive power.  Same upright, pacey running style.  Same patience and ability to wait on a single block to form up at various levels of the defense and explode out of that inside cut on the outside block, but also the same ability to decide "I'm taking it to the edge one hat on three and I'm going to win" when the moment calls for it.  Same subtle fullspeed jump cuts.  Same balance and acceleration.  Same WR-esque body control on down-field catches.  Even hurdles like Le'Veon.  It is eerie how much he resembles Le'Veon to me.  I think he's going to be a superstar if he goes to a team that figures out they should run the ball when they have him.

 

I love Etienne too though.  To me, Etienne is a Dalvin Cook/Melvin Gordon type of runner.  A fabulous mix of speed and power with that elite ability to gear up into the hole and really stress that second level to immediately reach their fits and be ready for a very hard blow.  He's probably got more top end speed than them too, I'd guess he runs low 4.4s instead of upper 4.4s/low 4.5.  I think he's got that rare instinct to house runs/catches with all kinds of creativity like Gordon and Cook did, and could end up being a big time touchdown machine like them.  I think he's going to be a superstar too.

 

Etienne and Harris are probably two of the five best offensive players in CFB this year, especially with Chase and Sewell opting out.  Any team would be happy to get either one.  I like Chuba Hubbard almost as much as them too, but I think he's maybe a hair lower in ability than them.  And my initial take was that I really like Journey Brown but I need to see more from him this season before I confidently put him in the same class as Etienne, Harris, and Hubbard.  Same for the big runner from Ohio State.

 

 

Thanks for the stuff, I'll try and check that out once I'm caught up. I have a bad habit of falling behind, and then scrolling through like 15 pages and quote posting so it's a litany of my ---- for a page or two before I disappear again (in this case, a weekend in Lake Tahoe maybe to get away from reno/verdi). 

[The Consigliere]

19 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

While he is certainly mobile, he looks nothing like a 4.3 guy. I don’t think he’s faster than a 4.5 or 4.55. He doesn’t look that fast on tape 

Usually you should add .05 to a hand timed race at minimum, not sure how they timed it there though. I don't think tape matters, a time is a time, he's not 4.55 if they didn't totally botch his time though, typically .05+ added is remarkably accurate for adjusting a school hand time versus a combine laser/edited time (they edit based on time out of the start to make sure for accuracy). 

17 hours ago, JoggingGod said:

Hence why we should fire Ron Rivera after the season.

 

I wasn't a fan of the hire but understood it. Not big on retreads, but at least Rivera was a competent one, Gase is god awful and never showed signs of competence. Have no idea how he pulled a second gig. Reminds me of Turner landing the San Diego job after he failed comprehensively with us. 

[philibusters]

I am not all that worried about Justin Fields forty time.  I know its easily fast enough to be a dangerous running threat.   If he runs at the combine, I doubt he will run 4.30, I think he will be slower, but I think he is fast and whether that is a 4.35 or 4.45 he is going to be a dangerous threat to defenses with his legs.

[The Consigliere]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Arm strength alone doesn't mean much to me but IMO you also don't want a weak arm because otherwise you are limited see Colt McCoy.

 

40 time is a good attribute IMO.  Kyler Murray wouldn't be Kyler Murray if he wasn't fast.  Fields' Qb coach highlighted that Fields can potentialy run like L. Jackson but has a better arm but it was that combination is why he thinks he's special. 

 

I just want to know what the hell happened to Watsons arm when they did the velocity tests back in '17 because his results were truly horrific, and Woeffelesque. Sent alarms off in my head at the time, and then of course it didnt matter at all and left me wondering if he didn't take the drill seriously, or if drill doesn't accurately measure your Danny Wuerffelness Score because his velocity score was just embarrassingly bad, and clearly did not accurately measure his arm strength. 

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am pretty close early on to this.  But I got to really dive into studying them especially the QBs. 

 

8 hours ago, KDawg said:

Current top prospect (kinda weighting position)

 

1. Justin Fields

2. Trevor Lawrence

3. Penei Sewell (I think he’s the best player and “generational”)

4. JaMarr Chase

5. Micah Parsons

6.Travis Etienne (I like Najee better, but you can’t deny Etienne’s ability and explosive play)

7. Trey Lance (project with high upside)
8. Najee Harris

9. Jaylen Waddle (multi dimensional)

10. Kyle Pitts

 

 

I would include a caveat where, if I'm the Redskins anyway, I'd absolutely trade down if I couldn't move for a QB, and were slotted in for Chase. This draft has a pile of top end elite WR's and you never know who will be the best (see who went early, and who was actually best in the famed '96, '01, and '14 classes for numerous examples). When you have Chase, Moore, Bateman, Waddle, Smith etc you really should just move down and collect assets. All this being said, my #1 move is trading up for a QB if we aren't picking in the top two, like period, full stop, but if that isn't possible, but I am picking say at 4 or 5 and Chase is locked in there, I 100% move down at that point. 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, KDawg said:

I really think a lot of you are really missing the boat on Fields. But, that’s why evaluation stuff is fun!

 

Me too, and as usual I just don't care about all the tape grinder interpretations, I tend to view it as all nebulous <censored> since nobody every agrees on what they're actually saying. I'm 100% an analytics person, and view tape as just a tiebreaker, and nothing else, unless there's a just epic, massive red flag (an arm that can't cut it period at the NFL Level, comedic lack of vision and understanding of the position (Kalen Ballage as a RB). I just view tape as confirmation bias personified, and try to avoid it at all costs, beyond just a last check in an eval which is one of the many reasons I don't care what people are saying about Fields or Lawrence in terms of throwing platforms, ability to throw this or that ball etc. I get that some people really believe it, and really feel they get something out of it, and more power to you if you think that, I just see no evidence of it actually working as a tool effectively at all, hit rate and miss rate has remained more or less static throughout drafting history. teams only do better when they actually have more quantity of picks, and that tells me, in addition w/the rest of the data, that there is no edge to be gained in it. There seems to be one w/analytics, especially w/playmaking positions, which is why that's my preference. I will own QB is just the black hole of evaluation, except for the obvious (drug problems, zero arm talent), evaluating QB is murderously difficult. I point to Josh Allen, whose basically breaking every rule everywhere in terms of evaluation, how he can jump 10+% in one year in completion rate is just mind boggling and without any priors in modern NFL history that I can think of. 

 

One lovely thing about Lawrence I'll just add, is that he's a sneaky good running athlete. He's not a pure pocket passer. He's more than capable of escaping pressure and even being a weapon as a runner if need be, which makes both him and Fields incredibly attractive as dual threat options. In today's game, the running piece is a genuine addition that really helps. 563 yards last year on the ground was just ridiculous. 

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

I don’t think Fant not TJ are available and if they were the asking price will be much higher than I’d feel comfortable paying. We’re fast learning an elite TE is the most underrated position in an offense. Find me a legit contender that doesn’t have one. 

Agreed, which is why I think it's kind of pointless, I didnt think they're draft was very good beyond them and some speculative targets, it was '17 and '18 that were really good, '19 was just so so, w/a cliff after those two, and '20 was just straight garbage. 

 

I don't think we're fast learning that either. It should be obvious, and Warren Sharpe has been ----ing about teams being clueless about how critical going to 12 personnel is in terms of productive schemes (much like in variations w/play calling, and just passing much more in general). It's a vital weapon, the Chiefs, Niners, Patriots, Ravens etc, so many teams have understood the value.

 

One other note, TE is one of those positions where athleticism and speed score is super relevant. There is a like for like relationship between athleticism and speed and productivity, for sure. It's very sticky. Much less sticky for WR's (where breakout age is the key) or even RB (where 40 time is big, but the other stuff is less important than like, BMI etc). this is why I would have gone hard after (and would go after right now before the deadline): 

 

My favorites in Bold: 

Jonnu Smith

Gerald Everett

Kahale Warring

Chris Herndon

Mike Gesicki

OJ Howard

Dallas Goedert

David Njoku

Dawson Knox

Adam Trautman

Josh Oliver

Mo-Allie Cox

Jordan Thomas

Jordan Akins

Harrison Bryant

Foster Moreau

Ian Thomas

Irv Smith Jr

Jace Sternberger

 

Some of these guys are clearly proven, others are rolls of the dice, and others are dumpster diving (Jordan Thomas, Jordan Akins, Jace Sternberger after he couldn't win the gig this offseason etc). 

 

My favorite targets just because of length of contract and upside would be Warring, Gesicki, Goedert, Trautman, Oliver, Cox, Bryant, Moreau, Ian thomas and Irv Smith Jr, and some probably aren't getable at all like Fant, Hockenson, or in my list, Smith, Herndon, Gesicki, Goedert, and Trautman. 

[PartyPosse]

Njoku and Howard and basically done IMO. Njoku just can't stay healthy and OJ has had 5 years to earn the trust of a staff and has failed. I still wish we would have tried to get Fumagalli or even Butt from Denver, but for some reason we're convinced we're going to find an absolute gem in the trash pile at the position. I don't know why anyone thought Logan Thomas was going to be the answer to our problems. 

[Sellersfan]

I just can’t get past drafting another QB and putting him behind this Oline. Any prospect will be running for their life, and ruining their development behind this line. I would rather get Sewell as a life insurance policy for a future QB, maybe a Guard either through draft/FA. 
pretty sure Scherff is gone at his price and position.

[JoggingGod]

1 hour ago, Sellersfan said:

I just can’t get past drafting another QB and putting him behind this Oline. Any prospect will be running for their life, and ruining their development behind this line. I would rather get Sewell as a life insurance policy for a future QB, maybe a Guard either through draft/FA. 
pretty sure Scherff is gone at his price and position.

We have ~70 million in space and 3 other picks in the top 100. You're crazy if you want to pass up Lawrence or Fields and still have no QB.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Sellersfan said:

I just can’t get past drafting another QB and putting him behind this Oline. Any prospect will be running for their life, and ruining their development behind this line. I would rather get Sewell as a life insurance policy for a future QB, maybe a Guard either through draft/FA. 
pretty sure Scherff is gone at his price and position.

 

I can understand the general sentiment but if you need a QB, and you're picking in the top 3, and there's a guy there who you rate very highly, I think you gotta take him. 

[nonniey]

13 hours ago, KDawg said:

Current top prospect (kinda weighting position)

 

1. Justin Fields

2. Trevor Lawrence

3. Penei Sewell (I think he’s the best player and “generational”)

4. JaMarr Chase

5. Micah Parsons

6.........

 

Well it is clear the Redskins should pass on a QB in the first. We keep doing the same thing over and over to our drafted QBs - give up on them (almost immediately) and move them out. Why would anyone expect it to be any different with Lawrence or Fields? We should trade for a QB or sign a FA (if there are any suitable candidates) as the grass is always greener in the other yard when it comes to the Redskins and QBs (This goes back decades).

[nonniey]

2 hours ago, Sellersfan said:

I just can’t get past drafting another QB and putting him behind this Oline. Any prospect will be running for their life, and ruining their development behind this line. I would rather get Sewell as a life insurance policy for a future QB, maybe a Guard either through draft/FA. 
pretty sure Scherff is gone at his price and position.

This kind of plays into my point. If Lawrence or Fields doesn't excel behind that line the Skins will give up on him and move on to plan B (or is it Z?).

[Sellersfan]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I can understand the general sentiment but if you need a QB, and you're picking in the top 3, and there's a guy there who you rate very highly, I think you gotta take him. 

Yeah I get that.... I also think the highest we will get is pick 3. Assuming Lawrence goes 1st, and Fields 2nd, does that make what to do easier or harder?

[Sellersfan]

Not sure what is more depressing.... starting to look at the draft in October, or realizing that with all the poor play on the field we are currently picking 5th and theres a good chance the Gnats covet the same player we do.

[mistertim]

41 minutes ago, Sellersfan said:

Yeah I get that.... I also think the highest we will get is pick 3. Assuming Lawrence goes 1st, and Fields 2nd, does that make what to do easier or harder?

 

That makes it harder. After Fields will probably be Lance and I'm definitely more iffy on him than I am Fields. I'm certainly still open but as of now I definitely wouldn't take Lance with a top 3 pick. In that situation I'd be tempted to just draft Sewell and be likely set at LT for the next decade. 

[JoggingGod]

Okay, Zach Wilson needs to be in consideration for our future QB. Kid’s legit.

[KDawg]

6 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

That makes it harder. After Fields will probably be Lance and I'm definitely more iffy on him than I am Fields. I'm certainly still open but as of now I definitely wouldn't take Lance with a top 3 pick. In that situation I'd be tempted to just draft Sewell and be likely set at LT for the next decade. 

If we pick at 3 and Fields and Lawrence are gone they almost have to take Sewell. I think it would be borderline criminal negligence to not take Sewell in that situation. 
 

If we wind up out of the top 5 our first priority needs to be trading back. 
 

Ive kinda gone back and forth for what I would do at draft strategy, but I think I’m pretty firm on it now: Take Fields/Lawrence, if they aren’t there it’s Sewell. If he’s not there think about trading back weighted with drafting a stud receiver/LB. I probably trade back and get extra assets to help rebuild.