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The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”


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4 minutes ago, GoCommiesGo said:

Thanks for info!

 

Also, that sounds very ominous. 

We’re drafting our lawsuit now. 
 

long story. It really worked out ok - he seems to think the contract quite clearly makes them at fault and responsible. But I get burned by not knowing that in order to claim legal expenses for the suite in this state, you have to have that stipulated in the contract. Which is annoying because now that costs money - but also it tips the scales of what’s worth suing over. It’s not worth it to spent 8k suing over a 3k thing, and the builder knows that. It also drug out forever to get to this point because of the wording about timelines and such - which would have been caught by a lawyer before it was signed. 
 

It’s worth it to find a good contract lawyer before you sign a big contract. For me it was and likely will be the biggest I’ve ever signed. We did fine except for those minor things (or so we’re told) but… find your lawyer first. Doesn’t make sense to do it any other way. 

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57 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

'Largest-ever decline in history'...

 

 

 


Some important context in the article:

Quote

In his first State of the Union address, President Joe Biden stated that he would be "the only president ever to cut the deficit by more than one trillion dollars in a single year" and that "by the end of this year, the deficit will be down to less than half what it was" before he took office. While the President's math is accurate, his claims of credit for reducing the deficit are misplaced and lack important context.
 

https://www.crfb.org/blogs/did-president-biden-reduce-deficit-1-trillion

 

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Filled up my truck last when gas was $3.45 three weeks ago, cost $52 for 3/4 tank (never take a GM lower than 1/4, I  learned that the hard way).  Today at $4.23, it was about the same amount of gas, $65.

I got a mile per gallon more on this last tank (yeah, I track it, something I learned from my parents).  Truck goes in the shop for general stuff (oil change/ fluids/hose check).  Hopefully that leads to better gas mileage, but it's hard on a 5-cylinder that very rarely goes over 40 mph.  :silly:

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9 hours ago, The Evil Genius said:

So why didn't gas prices rapidly fall overnight (since barrels went under $100 yesterday)? I mean, they rapidly rose overnight when oil prices shot up.

 

Oh yeah..profit taking from the oil companies. 

 

Inquiring minds want to know...

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

Please tell me what lessons we learned in the 90s, that we abandoned.  

Running budget surpluses while investing in r&d. Clinton had the biggest stock market gains in history, fueled largely by private sector adaptation of government tech - internet and GPS. We had the biggest productivity gains since the 60s.

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5 hours ago, Riggo-toni said:

Running budget surpluses while investing in r&d. Clinton had the biggest stock market gains in history, fueled largely by private sector adaptation of government tech - internet and GPS. We had the biggest productivity gains since the 60s.

 

You mean that stock market bubble that popped and lead to a recession?  You want to go back to an economy that seems much better than it really is because of a stock market bubble?

 

https://thepoliticalinsider.com/clinton-surplus-myth/

 

(Also productivity pretty much looks like a linear increase since the early 1970s.  I'm highly skeptical that that 1990s were anything special.

 

https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Productivity-Output-per-Hour-.png

 

)

 

Did you really like 2005 too?

Edited by PeterMP
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The one thing that's getting overlooked when people are comparing barrel prices currently to costs at the station is that it takes weeks to correct as the gas being pumped now was purchases as the cost of barrels were peaking.  once that runs out and new barrels are purchased at the lower costs, you should see that reflect at the pumps over the next couple weeks.  that is what should happen at least but i guess we'll see if companies adjust as they have historically or if they will keep them high regardless of costs per barrel dropping back down.

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27 minutes ago, steve09ru said:

The one thing that's getting overlooked when people are comparing barrel prices currently to costs at the station is that it takes weeks to correct as the gas being pumped now was purchases as the cost of barrels were peaking.  once that runs out and new barrels are purchased at the lower costs, you should see that reflect at the pumps over the next couple weeks.  that is what should happen at least but i guess we'll see if companies adjust as they have historically or if they will keep them high regardless of costs per barrel dropping back down.

 

Counter - gas companies had no problem immediately raising prices when per barrel costs shot through the roof. Despite the gas at the pump being bought and processed for much less per barrel costs. 

Edited by The Evil Genius
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44 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Counter - gas companies had no problem immediately raising prices when per barrel costs shot through the roof. Despite the gas at the pump being bought and processed for much less per barrel costs. 

Definitely get that- this is a good read as well that touches on it as well: https://www.marketplace.org/2022/03/18/why-arent-gas-prices-dropping-if-oil-is-getting-cheaper/

 

Essentially, they can keep prices as is 'because they can' but also to accommodate any rapid rise that may happen in the near term and need to see consistency in the low prices before they begin.

 

“Now, if there is some predictable reduction in prices, then they can afford to pass on some of their savings to the consumers.” 

When gas stations set their prices, they have to keep in mind that they’ll have to replace the fuel they’re selling, according to Dan Scheitrum, an assistant professor of agricultural and resources economics at the University of Arizona.

So if the price of gasoline skyrockets tomorrow, but stations sold all of their gasoline today at a significantly cheaper price, they may have trouble funding their replacement purchases, he explained. 

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1 hour ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Counter - gas companies had no problem immediately raising prices when per barrel costs shot through the roof. Despite the gas at the pump being bought and processed for much less per barrel costs. 

 

They didn't really even wait for oil prices to rise tho. The speculation alone sent gas prices up like 20%. 🙄

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24 minutes ago, steve09ru said:

Definitely get that- this is a good read as well that touches on it as well: https://www.marketplace.org/2022/03/18/why-arent-gas-prices-dropping-if-oil-is-getting-cheaper/

 

Essentially, they can keep prices as is 'because they can' but also to accommodate any rapid rise that may happen in the near term and need to see consistency in the low prices before they begin.

 

“Now, if there is some predictable reduction in prices, then they can afford to pass on some of their savings to the consumers.” 

When gas stations set their prices, they have to keep in mind that they’ll have to replace the fuel they’re selling, according to Dan Scheitrum, an assistant professor of agricultural and resources economics at the University of Arizona.

So if the price of gasoline skyrockets tomorrow, but stations sold all of their gasoline today at a significantly cheaper price, they may have trouble funding their replacement purchases, he explained. 

Basically saying gas companies only need an excuse to raise prices, and then play semantics to keep the prices high, because who knows what will happen. 
 

Another thing in play is the fact that many oil/gas companies have shut down many of their wells during the pandemic (far less travel, workforce loss), and now can’t reopen them, because they don’t have the labor force to do so. They are beholden to their stockholders, though, so must continue to show a solid profit.

 

Talked quite a bit about these things with my father-in-law, an engineer for Phillips Oil for many years, and almost always got him to concede that oil companies have big money stockholders that require a good return on their investment.

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17 minutes ago, Long n Left said:

Basically saying gas companies only need an excuse to raise prices, and then play semantics to keep the prices high, because who knows what will happen. 
 

Another thing in play is the fact that many oil/gas companies have shut down many of their wells during the pandemic (far less travel, workforce loss), and now can’t reopen them, because they don’t have the labor force to do so. They are beholden to their stockholders, though, so must continue to show a solid profit.

 

Talked quite a bit about these things with my father-in-law, an engineer for Phillips Oil for many years, and almost always got him to concede that oil companies have big money stockholders that require a good return on their investment.

They also take losses if prices rise too quickly so that can also slow down how quickly they reduce prices once barrels start going down in order to recoup some of their losses from the initial spike.  
 

mainly just saying that it’s not always about record profits.  Businesses, like you said, need to show profits rather than losses to both please shareholders and continue growth and business.  All businesses aim to stay out of the red so I can’t really fault them recouping losses from the spike.  Now, if they were to continue this if barrel prices remain steady then I’ll complain and yell greed

 

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21 hours ago, steve09ru said:

They also take losses if prices rise too quickly so that can also slow down how quickly they reduce prices once barrels start going down in order to recoup some of their losses from the initial spike.  
 

mainly just saying that it’s not always about record profits.  Businesses, like you said, need to show profits rather than losses to both please shareholders and continue growth and business.  All businesses aim to stay out of the red so I can’t really fault them recouping losses from the spike.  Now, if they were to continue this if barrel prices remain steady then I’ll complain and yell greed

 

 

Curious..outside of the beginning of these pandemic years, has big oil produced quarterly losses anytime in our lifetime?

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41 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Curious..outside of the beginning of these pandemic years, has big oil produced quarterly losses anytime in our lifetime?

Probably not- I guess my focal point has been on the gas stations themselves that set the prices at the pump and they make pennies on the gallon.  Should have clarified retailers vs big oil.

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Median gas price in 2018 was $2.75 a gallon. Oil prices per barrel in 2018 were never lower than what they are now currently. It's insane to think that big oil isn't being called out more on this. Median gas prices right now are 50% higher than 2018 but cost of oil per barrel is still lower. 

 

Wtf🤦‍♂️

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